scholarly journals New insights into the environmental drivers of the circumpolar ground thermal regime

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli Karjalainen ◽  
Miska Luoto ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Jan Hjort
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Air Temperatures

Abstract. The thermal dynamics of permafrost shape Earth surface systems and human activity in the Arctic and have implications to global climate. Improved understanding of the fine-scale variability in the circumpolar ground thermal regime is required to account for its sensitivity to changing climatic and geoecological conditions. Here, we statistically related circumpolar observations of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) to high-resolution (~1 km2) geospatial data to identify their key environmental drivers. The multivariate models fitted well to MAGT and ALT observations with average R2 values being ~0.94 and 0.78, respectively. Corresponding predictive performances in terms of root mean square error were ~1.31 °C and 87 cm. Freezing air temperatures were the main driver of MAGT in permafrost conditions while thawing temperatures dominated when permafrost was not present. ALT was most strongly related to solar radiation and precipitation with an important influence from soil properties. Our findings suggest that in addition to climatic factors, initial ground thermal conditions and local-scale topography-soil-driven variability need to be considered in order to realistically assess the impacts of climate change on cold-climate geoecosystems.

ON THE THERMAL REGIME OF THE SURFACE AIR LAYER IN THE DEBED RIVER BASIN (ARMENIA)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44
Author(s):  
MARGARYAN V.G. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Surface Air Layer

The features of the thermal regime of the surface air layer in the Debed river basin are considered. A statistical analysis of the average annual and average seasonal values of air temperature from 1964 to 2018 was carried out, two periods were identified, their time course was shown. The analysis was carried out using data from six meteorological stations representing the lowland, mountain and high-mountain climatic zones of the Debed river basin. A correlation was obtained between the absolute altitude and the monthly average values of air temperature for January and July, which can be used to assess the thermal conditions of unexplored or poorly studied territories and for cartography. The time course of average values of air temperatures for the seasonal period has been studied. Analysis of trend lines of temporal changes in air temperatures shows that in all situations on the territory of the basin as a whole, there is a tendency of temperature growth. Moreover, with a range of interannual fluctuations, a break in the course of temperatures in the early to mid 1990 is clearly visible, after which their significant increase began. It turned out that a significant increase in seasonal temperatures is observed especially over the period 1993-2018, which means that the annual warming after the mid 1990 occurred primarily due to summer and spring seasons. The regular dynamics indicates that in the studied area in terms of temperatures, a tendency of softening winters, a decrease in the water content of rivers, aridization of the climate. The results obtained can be used to assess the regularities of the spatial-temporal distribution of the temperature of the study area, to clarify the thermal balance, for the rational use of heat resources, as well as in the development of strategic programs for longterm analysis.

scholarly journals Active layer thermal regime in two climatically contrasted sites of the Antarctic Peninsula region

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 457 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hrbáček ◽  
M. Oliva ◽  
K. Laska ◽  
J. Ruiz-Fernández ◽  
M. A. De Pablo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Layer ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Discontinuous Permafrost ◽  
The Antarctic

Permafrost controls geomorphic processes in ice-free areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) region. Future climate trends will promote significant changes of the active layer regime and permafrost distribution, and therefore a better characterization of present-day state is needed. With this purpose, this research focuses on Ulu Peninsula (James Ross Island) and Byers Peninsula (Livingston Island), located in the area of continuous and discontinuous permafrost in the eastern and western sides of the AP, respectively. Air and ground temperatures in as low as 80 cm below surface of the ground were monitored between January and December 2014. There is a high correlation between air temperatures on both sites (r=0.74). The mean annual temperature in Ulu Peninsula was -7.9 ºC, while in Byers Peninsula was -2.6 ºC. The lower air temperatures in Ulu Peninsula are also reflected in ground temperatures, which were between 4.9 (5 cm) and 5.9 ºC (75/80 cm) lower. The maximum active layer thickness observed during the study period was 52 cm in Ulu Peninsula and 85 cm in Byers Peninsula. Besides climate, soil characteristics, topography and snow cover are the main factors controlling the ground thermal regime in both areas.

scholarly journals Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1957-1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Abolt ◽  
Michael H. Young ◽  
Adam L. Atchley ◽  
Dylan R. Harp
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Ice Wedge ◽  
Prudhoe Bay

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon microtopography on near-surface ground temperatures. Ice wedge polygon microtopography is prone to rapid deformation in a changing climate, and cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost; therefore, feedbacks between microtopography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of sub-daily ground temperature observations at 5 depths and 9 locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.1 ∘C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that winter temperatures in the ice wedge are sensitive to both rim height and trough depth, but more sensitive to rim height. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. Deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for re-establishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be limited by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

scholarly journals New insights into the environmental factors controlling the ground thermal regime across the Northern Hemisphere: a comparison between permafrost and non-permafrost areas

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 693-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli Karjalainen ◽  
Miska Luoto ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Jan Hjort
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Thermal State ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Active Layer Thickness

Abstract. The thermal state of permafrost affects Earth surface systems and human activity in the Arctic and has implications for global climate. Improved understanding of the local-scale variability in the global ground thermal regime is required to account for its sensitivity to changing climatic and geoecological conditions. Here, we statistically related observations of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) to high-resolution (∼1 km2) geospatial data of climatic and local environmental conditions across the Northern Hemisphere. The aim was to characterize the relative importance of key environmental factors and the magnitude and shape of their effects on MAGT and ALT. The multivariate models fitted well to both response variables with average R2 values being ∼0.94 and 0.78. Corresponding predictive performances in terms of root-mean-square error were ∼1.31 ∘C and 87 cm. Freezing (FDD) and thawing (TDD) degree days were key factors for MAGT inside and outside the permafrost domain with average effect sizes of 6.7 and 13.6 ∘C, respectively. Soil properties had marginal effects on MAGT (effect size =0.4–0.7 ∘C). For ALT, rainfall (effect size =181 cm) and solar radiation (161 cm) were most influential. Analysis of variable importance further underlined the dominance of climate for MAGT and highlighted the role of solar radiation for ALT. Most response shapes for MAGT ≤0 ∘C and ALT were non-linear and indicated thresholds for covariation. Most importantly, permafrost temperatures had a more complex relationship with air temperatures than non-frozen ground. Moreover, the observed warming effect of rainfall on MAGT≤0∘C reverted after reaching an optimum at ∼250 mm, and that of snowfall started to level off at ∼300–400 mm. It is suggested that the factors of large global variation (i.e. climate) suppressed the effects of local-scale factors (i.e. soil properties and vegetation) owing to the extensive study area and limited representation of soil organic matter. Our new insights into the factors affecting the ground thermal regime at a 1 km scale should improve future hemispheric-scale studies.

scholarly journals Trends of Changes of Maximum Air Temperature in Ukraine as an Impact Factor on Population Health

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

Purpose. The aim of this research is detection of trends of changes (according to fact and scenario data) of extreme air temperature as a component of thermal regime in different regions of Ukraine because of global climate change. Methods. System analysis, statistical methods. Results. Time distribution of maximum air temperature regime characteristics based on results of observations on the stations located in different regions of Ukraine during certain available periods: Uzhgorod (1946-2018), Kharkiv (1936-2005), Оdessа (1894-2005), аnd also according to scenarios of low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) levels of greenhouse gases emissions. Meanwhile, air temperature ≥ 25°С was considered high (days with maximum temperature within 25,0-29,9°С are hot), ≥ 30°С was considered very high (days with such temperature are abnormaly hot). Trends of changes of extreme air temperatures were identified as a component of thermal regime in different regions of Ukraine within global climate changes. Dynamics of maximum air temperature and its characteristics in ХХ and beginning of ХХІ centuries were researched. Expected time changes of maximum air temperature and number of days with high temperature during 2021-2050 were analyzed by RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. There were identified the highest day air temperatures possible once in a century and also possibility of maximum day temperature more than 30°С by RCP4.5 scenario. Well-timed prediction of climate changes will help evaluate their impact on human and natural systems which will be useful for development and taking preventive measures towards minimization of negative influence of such changes. Conclusions. Processes of climate warming in Ukraine are activating. There was determined a strong trend on increasing of average maximum of air temperature in winter with speed 0.17-0,39 degrees centigrade/10 years. According to climatic norm this index mainly increased mostly (up to 3,3 degrees centigrade) in January in North-East of the country. In future such anomalies will grow. Determination of correlation between climate and health is the base for taking protective measures against perils for population health connected with climate.

scholarly journals Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles J. Abolt ◽  
Michael H. Young ◽  
Adam L. Atchley ◽  
Dylan R. Harp
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Change ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Ice Wedge

Abstract. The goal of this research is to constrain the influence of ice wedge polygon topography on near-surface ground temperatures. Because ice wedge polygon topography is prone to rapid change in a changing climate, and because cracking in the ice wedge depends on thermal conditions at the top of the permafrost, feedbacks between topography and ground temperature can shed light on the potential for future ice wedge cracking in the Arctic. We first report on a year of subdaily ground temperature observations at five depths and nine locations throughout a cluster of low-centered polygons near Prudhoe Bay, AK, and demonstrate that the rims become the coldest zone of the polygon during winter, due to thinner snowpack. We then calibrate a polygon-scale numerical model of coupled thermal and hydrologic processes against this dataset, achieving an RMSE of less than 1.2 °C between observed and simulated ground temperature. Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model by systematically manipulating the height of the rims and the depth of the troughs, and tracking the effects on ice wedge temperature. The results indicate that deeper troughs lead to increased snow entrapment, promoting insulation of the ice wedge. Rims act as preferential outlets of subsurface heat; increasing rim size decreases winter temperatures in the ice wedge. The potential for ice wedge cracking is therefore reduced if rims are destroyed or if troughs subside, due to warmer conditions in the ice wedge. These findings can help explain the origins of secondary ice wedges in modern and ancient polygons. The findings also imply that the potential for reestablishing rims in modern thermokarst-affected terrain will be precluded by reduced cracking activity in the ice wedges, even if regional air temperatures stabilize.

Contrasting thermal responses of permafrost to winter warming events under different snow regimes in the subarctic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didac Pascual Descarrega ◽  
Margareta Johansson
Keyword(s):  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Winter Warming

<p>Winter warming events (WWE) in the Swedish subarctic are abrupt and short-lasting (hours-to-days) events of positive air temperature that occur during wintertime, sometimes accompanied by rainfall (rain on snow; ROS). These events cause changes in snow properties, which affect the below-ground thermal regime that, in turn, controls a suite of ecosystem processes ranging from microbial activity to permafrost and vegetation dynamics. For instance, winter melting can cause ground warming due to the shortening of the snow cover season, or ground cooling as the reduced snow depth and the formation of refrozen layers of high thermal conductivity at the base of the snowpack facilitate the release of soil heat. Apart from these interacting processes, the overall impacts of WWE on ground temperatures may also depend on the timing of the events and the preceding snowpack characteristics. The frequency and intensity of these events in the Arctic, including the Swedish subarctic, has increased remarkably during the recent decades, and is expected to increase even further during the 21st Century. In addition, snow depth (not necessarily snow duration) is projected to increase in many parts of the Arctic, including the Swedish subarctic. In 2005, a manipulation experiment was set up on a lowland permafrost mire in the Swedish subarctic, to simulate projected future increases in winter precipitation. In this study, we analyse this 15-year record of ground temperature, active layer thickness, and meteorological variables, to evaluate the short- (days to weeks) and long-term (up to 1 year) impacts of WWE on the thermal dynamics of lowland permafrost, and provide new insights into the influence of the timing of WWE and the underlying snowpack conditions on the thermal response of permafrost. On the short-term, the thermal responses to WWE are faster and stronger in areas with a shallow snowpack (5-10 cm), although these responses are more persistent in areas with a thicker snowpack (>25 cm), especially after ROS events. On the long term, permafrost in areas with a thicker snowpack exhibit a more durable warming response to WWE that results in thicker active layers at the end of the season. On the contrary, we do not observe a correlation between WWE and end of season active layer thickness in areas with a shallow snowpack. </p>

scholarly journals Anthropogenic and natural drivers of a strong winter urban heat island in a typical Arctic city

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Varentsov ◽  
Pavel Konstantinov ◽  
Alexander Baklanov ◽  
Igor Esau ◽  
Victoria Miles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Strong Argument ◽  
Urban Heat

Abstract. The Arctic has rapidly urbanized in recent decades with two million people currently living in more than a hundred cities north of 65° N. These cities have a harsh but sensitive climate and warming here is the principle driver of destructive thawing, water leakages, air pollution, and other detrimental environmental impacts. This study reports on the urban temperature anomaly in a typical Arctic city. This persistent warm anomaly reaches up to 11  K in winter with the wintertime mean urban temperature being on average 1.9 K higher in the city centre than in the surrounding natural landscape. An urban temperature anomaly, also known as an urban heat island (UHI), was found in remote sensing and in situ temperature data. High-resolution (1 km) model experiments run with and without an urban surface parametrization helped to identify the leading physical and geographical factors supporting a strong temperature anomaly in a cold climate. The statistical analysis and modelling suggest that direct anthropogenic heating contributes at least 50 % to the observed UHI intensity, and the rest is created by natural microclimatic variability over the undulating relief of the area. The current UHI effect can be as large as the projected, and already amplified, warming for the region in the 21st century. In contrast to earlier reports, this study found that the wintertime UHI in the Arctic should be largely attributed to direct anthropogenic heating. This is a strong argument in support of energy efficiency measures, urban climate change mitigation policy, and against high-density urban development in polar settlements. The complex pattern of thermal conditions, as revealed in this study, challenges urban planners to account for the observed micro-climatic diversity in perspective sustainable development solutions.

scholarly journals A sensitivity study of factors influencing warm/thin permafrost in the Swiss Alps

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (187) ◽  
pp. 696-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Luetschg ◽  
Michael Lehning ◽  
Wilfried Haeberli
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Large Change ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Winter Snow

AbstractAlpine permafrost distribution is controlled by a great number of climatic, topographic and soil-specific factors, including snow cover, which plays a major role. In this study, a one-dimensional finite-element numerical model was developed to analyze the influence of individual snow-specific and climatic factors on the ground thermal regime. The results indicate that the most important factor is snow depth. Snow depths below the threshold value of 0.6 m lack sufficient insulation to prevent low atmospheric temperatures from cooling the soil. The date of first winter snow insulation and variations in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) are also shown to be important. Delays in early-winter snow insulation and in summer snow disappearance are shown to be of approximately equal significance to the ground thermal conditions. Numerical modelling also indicates that the duration of effective thermal resistance of snow cover governs the slope of the linear dependency between MAAT and mean annual ground surface temperatures (MAGST). Consequently, the most direct effect of a long-term rise in air temperatures on ground temperatures is predicted under a thin snow cover with early snowmelt in spring and/or where a large change in the date of total snowmelt occurs, in response to atmospheric warming.

scholarly journals PERICLIMv1.0: a model deriving palaeo-air temperatures from thaw depth in past permafrost regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1865-1884
Author(s):  
Tomáš Uxa ◽  
Marek Křížek ◽  
Filip Hrbáček
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Temperature Characteristics ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climate Controls ◽  
Thaw Depth ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Permafrost Regions

Abstract. Periglacial features, such as various kinds of patterned ground, cryoturbations, frost wedges, solifluction structures, and blockfields, are among the most common relics of cold climate periods, which repetitively occurred throughout the Quaternary. As such, they are widespread archives of past environmental conditions. Climate controls on the development of most periglacial features, however, remain poorly known, and thus empirical palaeo-climate reconstructions based on them have limited validity. This study presents and evaluates a simple new inverse modelling scheme called PERICLIMv1.0 (PERIglacial CLIMate) that derives palaeo-air temperature characteristics related to the palaeo-active-layer thickness, which can be recognized using many relict periglacial features found in past permafrost regions. The evaluation against modern temperature records showed that the model reproduces air temperature characteristics with average errors ≤1.3 ∘C. The past mean annual air temperature modelled experimentally for two sites in the Czech Republic hosting relict cryoturbation structures was between -7.0±1.9 and -3.2±1.5 ∘C, which is well in line with earlier reconstructions utilizing various palaeo-archives. These initial results are promising and suggest that the model could become a useful tool for reconstructing Quaternary palaeo-environments across vast areas of mid-latitudes and low latitudes where relict periglacial assemblages frequently occur, but their full potential remains to be exploited.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document