scholarly journals Increasing life expectancy and the growing elderly population

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helge Brunborg
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Support Ratio ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
Significant Mortality

<p>The life expectancy has increased rapidly in Norway in recent decades, with about ¼ year per year. The increase has been particularly fast for men, following a temporary decline in the 1950s and 1960s. Statistics Norway’s mortality projections using the Lee-Carter method indicate further improvements in this century – about 10 years higher life expectancy at birth. This implies significant mortality declines for older persons as the mortality is now small for young people. With no deaths below age 50 the life expectancy would be only 1-2 years higher.</p><p>Population projections are for several reasons important for studying population ageing, including to have knowledge about the future age structure, and to estimate the effects of possible policy changes. In addition, the mortality projections are used for several other purposes than for projecting the population, such as calculating future pensions according to the new pension system, where life expectancy improvements reduce the annual pensions.</p><p>The population projections show that the population will age regardless of plausible assumptions made about the demographic components births, deaths, immigration and emigration. Policies to affect these components may only marginally affect future ageing, and in some cases in the wrong direction. The only factor that may significantly affect the future ratio of the working to the non-working population, the potential support ratio, is that people work longer. This ratio will remain at the current level if the pension age is increased from the current 67 years to 78 years at the end of the century. This may be possible if the health of old persons continues to improve.</p>

scholarly journals Pension reform 2019: determinants, consequences, alternatives

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-44
Author(s):  
Sergey Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Unemployment Benefits ◽  
Pension Insurance ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Support Ratio ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Right

The paper addresses, mostly with demographic tools, the rationale and consequences of the reform of Russia’s distributive pension system. Contrary to official assertions, mortality conditions do not warrant an increase of the pension age. The reference to a rapidly falling demographic support ratio as a rationale of the reform’s urgency is misleading. A rapid and large increase in the retirement age will considerably reduce the obligations of the Pension Fund of Russia, yet this will be far from enough to balance its budget. The reform creates a fundamentally new and difficult to implement task of ensuring the right to employment of persons deprived of the right to a pension. To the extent that this task can be accomplished, the Pension Fund of Russia and the State budget will be supplemented with additional revenues. At the same time, to the extent that this task remains unresolved, a social group of elderly people who are deprived of income will arise and continue to grow. For a limited time their life will be supported by unemployment benefits. Russia possesses large-scale alternative resources for resolving the pension problem, which consist, among other things, in increasing the collection of pension contributions, labor productivity and employment of the population, as well as in developing funded forms of pension insurance.

scholarly journals To what extent is Australia’s population ageing? The application of traditional and alternative ageing measures

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-69
Author(s):  
Tom Wilson ◽  
Jeromey Temple
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Remaining Life Expectancy ◽  
Health And Mortality

Background  Most studies of population ageing apply traditional ageing measures, such as the number or percentage of the population aged 65 and above. In the context of gradually improving health and mortality at age 65, the use of a fixed age cut-off to define ‘older age’ needs to be revisited. Aim  The aim of this paper is to re-assess the extent of population ageing in Australia and the States and Territories over past decades and in the future as indicated by both traditional and alternative ageing measures. Data and methods  Both numerical and structural ageing was measured using age cut-offs for the older population of (i) age 65, (ii) the age at which there is 15 years life expectancy remaining, and (iii) the age at which the mortality rate is above 0.01. The data consisted of life tables, population estimates and population projections. Results  Both traditional and alternative ageing measures indicate considerable past and future numerical ageing. Structural ageing has been strong since the 1970s in terms of the percentage aged 65+, but the alternative ageing measures paint quite a different picture of structural ageing both in the past and in the future. Conclusions  The use of a traditional measure of population ageing in combination with a mortality-based measure, such as the population with remaining life expectancy of under 15 years, is helpful for demographic analyses of ageing.

Cohort Differences in Mortality and Morbidity

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 65-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Jagger ◽  
Kaare Christensen ◽  
Michael Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Oldest Old ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Cohort Differences ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

ABSTRACTIn 1900 life expectancy at birth in the UK was only 46 years for men and 53 years for women. Just over a century later life expectancy at birth has increased by around 30 years and by 2007 had reached 77.5 years for men and 81.7 years for women. The population aged 85 years and over, often termed the ‘oldest old’, are now the fastest growing section of our population. For the 1921 cohort only 18% of men and a third of women reached the age of 85 years but for the 1951 birth cohort it is expected that almost half of men and 60% of women will achieve that age. The important question for health care planners and society is whether the large number of those who will reach 85 years in the future are similar in health characteristics to those attaining 85 years now.This question was addressed by substantive results and by methodological papers in the ‘Cohort’ theme of the Joining Forces on Mortality and Longevity conference in October 2009. Here we provide an overview of the papers, some of which are presented in full in this issue (see Murphy (2009), Di Cesare & Murphy (2009), O'Connell & Dunstan (2009), Forfar (2009)).

scholarly journals Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (5) ◽  
pp. e2014746118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Andrasfay ◽  
Noreen Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hispanic Paradox ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Black And Latino

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 US life expectancy for the Black and Latino populations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Andrasfay ◽  
Noreen Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Black Population ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
One Year ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Black And Latino

AbstractThe Black and Latino populations have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and risk of death for those infected. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, as of July 4, 2020, deaths to Black and Latino individuals comprised 23% and 17%, respectively, of the approximately 115,000 COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 mortality is likely to result in a larger decline in life expectancy during 2020 than the US has experienced for decades as well as a particularly large reduction for Black and Latino individuals. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for 2020, by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths – one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our most likely estimate indicates a reduction in life expectancy at birth greater than 1.5 years for both the Black and Latino populations, which is one year larger than the reduction for whites. This would imply that the Black-white gap would increase by 30%, from 3.6 to 4.7 years, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2008 and reversing an overall trend of steeper mortality declines among the Black population since the early 1990s. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their survival advantage decline by 36%, equivalent to its magnitude in 2006.

scholarly journals Indicators and determinants of the years of working life lost: a narrative review

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482199366
Author(s):  
Rahman Shiri ◽  
Aapo Hiilamo ◽  
Tea Lallukka
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Working Life ◽  
Narrative Review ◽  
Physical Work ◽  
Work Demands ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Physical Work Demands ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Healthy Working ◽  
Overweight Or Obesity

Objective: This narrative review summarizes the available indicators for working life expectancy and years of working life lost (YWLL) and their determinants. Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase databases from their inception until August 2020 and screened all studies proposing an indicator for working life expectancy or YWLL. We also reviewed studies focusing on sociodemographic, lifestyle and work-related determinants of working life expectancy and YWLL. The results were synthesized narratively. Results: We identified 13 different indicators for the length of working life or YWLL. The most frequently used indicators were ‘working life expectancy’, ‘healthy working life expectancy’, and YWLL. Working life expectancy and healthy working life expectancy are longer for men than women. Working life expectancy at the age of 50 has been increasing since the mid-90s, and the increase has been larger for women, reducing the sex difference. Working life is shorter for people with a low level of education, in lower occupational classes, for people exposed to high physical work demands, those living in the most socioeconomically deprived areas, people with overweight or obesity, smokers, people who are inactive during leisure time and in people with a chronic health problem. Conclusions: Despite increasing interest in understanding the determinants of YWLL, only a few studies have simultaneously considered multiple exit routes from the labour market. We propose a new measure for total YWLL considering all relevant exit routes from employment. This comprehensive measure can be used to assess the effect of given policy changes on prolonging working life.

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