scholarly journals Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (5) ◽  
pp. e2014746118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Andrasfay ◽  
Noreen Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hispanic Paradox ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Black And Latino

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 US life expectancy for the Black and Latino populations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Andrasfay ◽  
Noreen Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Black Population ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
One Year ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Black And Latino

AbstractThe Black and Latino populations have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and risk of death for those infected. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, as of July 4, 2020, deaths to Black and Latino individuals comprised 23% and 17%, respectively, of the approximately 115,000 COVID-19 deaths. COVID-19 mortality is likely to result in a larger decline in life expectancy during 2020 than the US has experienced for decades as well as a particularly large reduction for Black and Latino individuals. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for 2020, by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths – one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our most likely estimate indicates a reduction in life expectancy at birth greater than 1.5 years for both the Black and Latino populations, which is one year larger than the reduction for whites. This would imply that the Black-white gap would increase by 30%, from 3.6 to 4.7 years, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2008 and reversing an overall trend of steeper mortality declines among the Black population since the early 1990s. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their survival advantage decline by 36%, equivalent to its magnitude in 2006.

scholarly journals Reductions in US life expectancy from COVID-19 by Race and Ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Andrasfay ◽  
Noreen Goldman
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
White Population ◽  
Widespread Distribution ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
Black And Latino

COVID-19 had a huge mortality impact in the US in 2020 and accounted for the majority of the 1.5-year reduction in 2020 life expectancy at birth. There were also substantial racial/ethnic disparities in the mortality impact of COVID-19 in 2020, with the Black and Latino populations experiencing reductions in life expectancy at birth over twice the reduction experienced by the White population. Despite continued vulnerability of the Black and Latino populations, the hope was that widespread distribution of effective vaccines would mitigate the overall impact and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in 2021. In this study, we use cause-deleted life table methods to estimate the impact of COVID-19 mortality on 2021 US period life expectancy. Our partial-year estimates, based on provisional COVID-19 deaths for January-early October 2021 suggest that racial/ethnic disparities have persisted and that life expectancy at birth in 2021 has already declined by 1.2 years from pre-pandemic levels. Our projected full-year estimates, based on projections of COVID-19 deaths through the end of 2021 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, suggest a 1.8-year reduction in US life expectancy at birth from pre-pandemic levels, a steeper decline than the estimates produced for 2020. The reductions in life expectancy at birth estimated for the Black and Latino populations are 1.6-2.4 times the impact for the White population.

scholarly journals Black and White Differences in Life Expectancy in 4 US States, 1969-2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (6) ◽  
pp. 634-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay S. Kaufman ◽  
Corinne A. Riddell ◽  
Sam Harper
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Racial Differences ◽  
State Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Racial Gap

Objectives: Racial differences in mortality in the United States have narrowed and vary by time and place. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the gap in life expectancy between white and black persons (hereinafter, racial gap in life expectancy) in 4 states (California, Georgia, Illinois, and New York) and (2) estimate trends in the contribution of major causes of death (CODs) to the racial gap in life expectancy by age group. Methods: We extracted data on the number of deaths and population sizes for 1969-2013 by state, sex, race, age group, and 6 major CODs. We used a Bayesian time-series model to smooth and impute mortality rates and decomposition methods to estimate trends in sex- and age-specific contributions of CODs to the racial gap in life expectancy. Results: The racial gap in life expectancy at birth decreased in all 4 states, especially among men in New York (from 8.8 to 1.1 years) and women in Georgia (from 8.0 to 1.7 years). Although few deaths occurred among persons aged 1-39, racial differences in mortality at these ages (mostly from injuries and infant mortality) contributed to the racial gap in life expectancy, especially among men in California (1.0 year of the 4.3-year difference in 2013) and Illinois (1.9 years of the 6.7-year difference in 2013). Cardiovascular deaths contributed most to the racial gap in life expectancy for adults aged 40-64, but contributions decreased among women aged 40-64, especially in Georgia (from 2.8 to 0.5 years). The contribution of cancer deaths to inequality increased in California and Illinois, whereas New York had the greatest reductions in inequality attributable to cancer deaths (from 0.6 to 0.2 years among men and from 0.2 to 0 years among women). Conclusions: Future research should identify policy innovations and economic changes at the state level to better understand New York’s success, which may help other states emulate its performance.

scholarly journals Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. e2019536118
Author(s):  
James W. Vaupel ◽  
Francisco Villavicencio ◽  
Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Human Longevity ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
The Past ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Length Of Life

This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data on age-specific mortality are used to estimate life expectancy, and validated data on exceptional life spans are used to study the maximum length of life. In the countries doing best each year, life expectancy started to increase around 1840 at a pace of almost 2.5 y per decade. This trend has continued until the present. Contrary to classical evolutionary theories of senescence and contrary to the predictions of many experts, the frontier of survival is advancing to higher ages. Furthermore, individual life spans are becoming more equal, reducing inequalities, with octogenarians and nonagenarians accounting for most deaths in countries with the highest life expectancy. If the current pace of progress in life expectancy continues, most children born this millennium will celebrate their 100th birthday. Considerable uncertainty, however, clouds forecasts: Life expectancy and maximum life span might increase very little if at all, or longevity might rise much faster than in the past. Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades in deepening understanding of how long humans have lived and how long they might live. The social, economic, health, cultural, and political consequences of further increases in longevity are so significant that the development of more powerful methods of forecasting is a priority.

scholarly journals Increasing life expectancy and the growing elderly population

2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helge Brunborg
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Support Ratio ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
Significant Mortality

<p>The life expectancy has increased rapidly in Norway in recent decades, with about ¼ year per year. The increase has been particularly fast for men, following a temporary decline in the 1950s and 1960s. Statistics Norway’s mortality projections using the Lee-Carter method indicate further improvements in this century – about 10 years higher life expectancy at birth. This implies significant mortality declines for older persons as the mortality is now small for young people. With no deaths below age 50 the life expectancy would be only 1-2 years higher.</p><p>Population projections are for several reasons important for studying population ageing, including to have knowledge about the future age structure, and to estimate the effects of possible policy changes. In addition, the mortality projections are used for several other purposes than for projecting the population, such as calculating future pensions according to the new pension system, where life expectancy improvements reduce the annual pensions.</p><p>The population projections show that the population will age regardless of plausible assumptions made about the demographic components births, deaths, immigration and emigration. Policies to affect these components may only marginally affect future ageing, and in some cases in the wrong direction. The only factor that may significantly affect the future ratio of the working to the non-working population, the potential support ratio, is that people work longer. This ratio will remain at the current level if the pension age is increased from the current 67 years to 78 years at the end of the century. This may be possible if the health of old persons continues to improve.</p>

scholarly journals At-a-glance - The impact of poisoning-related mortality on life expectancy at birth in Canada, 2000 to 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Orpana ◽  
Justin J. Lang ◽  
Diana George ◽  
Jessica Halverson
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
National Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Increases in opioid-related mortality have contributed to declines in life expectancy at birth in the United States and British Columbia. Canadian national mortality data from 2000 to 2016 were analyzed to determine the contribution of poisoning-related mortality to changes in life expectancy at birth by age group and sex. From 2000 to 2016, life expectancy at birth increased by almost three years; however, mortality due to unintentional poisonings, including those involving opioids, curbed this increase by 0.16 years. Although a national decrease in life expectancy at birth has not been observed in Canada during this period, current trends suggest that the national opioid overdose crisis will continue to attenuate gains to life expectancy.

scholarly journals Estimación de la esperanza de vida a nivel municipal y por marginación sociodemográfica: una aplicación del método de Swanson para el caso de México, 2010 / Estimation of life expectancy at the municipal level and sociodemographic marginalization: Using the Swanson method for the case of Mexico, 2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Israel Paredes ◽  
Eliud Silva
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Nonlinear Regression ◽  
Nonlinear Regression Model ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Estimate Life Expectancy ◽  
Municipal Level

Se presenta la aplicación del método de Swanson, modelo de regresión no lineal, para estimar la esperanza de vida al nacer para el caso de México en 2010, tanto a nivel municipal como por grado de marginación sociodemográfica. Se evidencia la simplicidad del método a través de exponer los pocos insumos demográficos que requiere, y se concluye con el potencial y precisión de la herramienta por grado de marginación, así como con la coherencia que se alcanza al hacer comparaciones entre las estimaciones obtenidas en la aplicación y los datos que se tienen de manera oficial del indicador.AbstractThe Swanson method, a nonlinear regression model, is used to estimate life expectancy at birth for the case of Mexico 2010, at both the municipal level and because of the sociodemographic degree of marginalization. The authors show the simplicity of the method by explaining the few demographic inputs required, and concludes with the potential and accuracy of the tool due to the degree of marginalization, as well as the consistency achieved when making comparisons between the estimates obtained in the application and the data obtained from the official indicator.

Under Press-ure

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herb Boyd
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Black Press ◽  
Limited Extent ◽  
Mainstream Media ◽  
The Media ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Black And Latino

This chapter considers the role of the Black press and, to a more limited extent, the Latino press in Obama's campaign. Given his desire to transcend race and ethnicity yet his need to mobilize Black and Latino voters, this specialized press played a key role in the campaign. Before Obama became the forty-fourth President of the United States, his campaign was viewed in three major ways by the media: There were those who cheered him along; those uncertain what to make of him but who retained a tame, mainstream, “wait and see” perspective; and those whose views ranged from “critically supportive” to firmly opposed. Since his election, there has been little change in these assessments, though at this time there is a clearer delineation between those for and against Obama in the mainstream media as they gather a better understanding of his pragmatic tendencies on policy and issues.

scholarly journals Living Longer with Disability: Economic Implications for Healthcare Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4467
Author(s):  
Alessandro Danovi ◽  
Stefano Olgiati ◽  
Alessandro D’Amico
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Total Health Expenditure ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Increase

This work focuses on the economic implications of the relationship between life expectancy, the number of years lost to disability and per-capita total health expenditure. The primary goal of the paper is to identify and plot the correlation between healthcare expenditure and the global increase in life expectancy, in order to assess if, and how, the way longer average lifespans are achieved affects healthcare sustainability. Datasets regarding the United States, the European Union and the five largest emerging healthcare systems (i.e., Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) were obtained from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the WHO Health Expenditure Statistics Repository. All analysis was performed on 2017 data. The results of the analysis showed the number of years lost to disability to be a linear function of life expectancy at birth (male R2 = 0.61; female R2 = 0.47), and per-capita total health expenditure to be an exponential function of the number of years lost to disability (male R2 = 0.60; female R2 = 0.65). This implies that improving life expectancy via social policies bears negative consequences in terms of healthcare sustainability, unless the number of years lost to disability is reduced too. Further studies should narrow the sample of countries and causes of years lost due to disability, to better inform future policy efforts.

scholarly journals Trends in age distribution of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by race in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madeleine Short Fabic ◽  
Yoonjoung Choi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Demographic Characteristic ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Reporting Quality ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Age Patterns

COVID-19 cases are quickly growing across the United States with numerous states reporting that the proportion of cases among young people is ballooning. COVID-19 data are typically presented cumulatively and by only one demographic characteristic. Understanding and communicating complex demographic trends is imperative to recognize population-level vulnerabilities and inform tailored public health responses. Using the latest COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Use Data by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we aim to: a) assess one dimension of reporting quality-- data completeness; and b) examine national time-trends in the age pattern of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths overall as well as by race and ethnicity. Reporting of race and ethnicity in COVID-19 cases has been persistently poor, multiple months into the pandemic. Our analysis also shows unequal and changing age-patterns among cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by race and ethnicity. Age-pattern differences between whites and other races are widening.

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