Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth – the Case of Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1375-1386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Gabriel Brida ◽  
Lionello F. Punzo ◽  
Wiston Adrián Risso
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Specific Test ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run

International tourism is recognized to contribute to long-run growth through a whole list of diverse channels. This belief that tourism can cause long-run growth is known in the literature as the ‘tourism-led growth hypothesis’. This case study of Brazil can be taken as a specific test for such a hypothesis. In the paper, two different econometric methodologies are applied to two distinct data sets, showing that the results are independent of either data or methodology. On the one hand, annual data from 1965 to 2007 for Brazil as a whole are used for a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. On the other hand, high-quality data for the 27 Brazilian states, though for a shorter period (from 1990 to 2005), enable the use of the dynamic panel data model proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). The authors show that the long-run elasticities between real per capita GDP with respect to tourism receipts and the real rate of exchange are 0.13 and 0.30, respectively. Finally, they compare their results with those of similar studies.

scholarly journals Cotton Imports and GDP of Indonesia- Cointegration Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-154
Author(s):  
P. Soumya ◽  
R. A. Yeledhalli
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the impact of cotton imports on the real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia for a period from 1992 to 2018 using ARDL approach and Granger causality analysis. Results of the study indicated that cotton imports have negative effect on economic growth. For every 1% increase in cotton imports the real GDP decreased by 0.107% in the long run. Any disequilibrium in the model is adjusted with a high speed of adjustment of 107.7% in less than a year. Shocks and the trend are adjusted in less than one year. There is no causality between imports of cotton and the real GDP. The study suggested effort should be taken by the government to increase yield of cotton by the use of technology and also a need to initiate farmers to take up cotton farming. 

scholarly journals The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015*

2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 1225-1298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Òscar Jordà ◽  
Katharina Knoll ◽  
Dmitry Kuvshinov ◽  
Moritz Schularick ◽  
Alan M Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles.

Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Jamaica

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alton Best ◽  
Brian M. Francis ◽  
C. Justin Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample

The paper empirically examines the question of whether bank liquid reserves to bank assets ratio and domestic credit to private sector as a percentage of GDP strengthens financial deepening on the real sector and hence catalyzes economic growth in Jamaica. A Granger causality approach is employed within a multivariate framework. Cointegration is used to examine the short- and long-run relationships within the model. Innovative accounting techniques (impulse response function and variance decomposition) are also utilized to determine the out-of-sample relation between financial deepening and economic growth. The empirical analysis is conducted with annual data from 1980 to 2014 with three proxies for financial deepening. The empirical evidence suggests a ‘supplying-leading’ relationship in both the short and long run. These results are confirmed by the innovation accounting techniques (impulse response function and the variance decomposition). Our findings imply that Jamaica should first concentrate on developing its financial sectors which has the potential to spur higher levels of economic growth in the real sectors of the economy.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 113-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt G. Lunsford ◽  
Kenneth D. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
The United States ◽  
Standard Theory ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Long Run

We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced-form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long-run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For another example, the long-run correlation with the proportion of 40 to 64 year-olds in the population is negative. This is consistent with standard theory where middle-aged workers are high savers who drive down real interest rates. In contrast to standard theory, we do not find productivity to be positively correlated with real rates. Most other variables have a mixed relationship with the real rate, with long-run correlations that are statistically or economically large in some samples and by some measures but not in others. (JEL E21, E22, E24, E43, E52)

scholarly journals Long-Run Relationship Between Economic Development and International Tourism in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-344
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary ◽  
Khalid Latif ◽  
Naveed Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This article examines the link between economic development and international tourism in the context of Pakistan. The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag tests (ARDL) for the long-term relationship; the short-term relationship is examined with Error Correction model, and the VECM-Granger causality to determine the direction of the causal flow. The study uses annual data from the CEIC and World Bank databases for the period 1990-2017. The novelty stems from the perspective that there is no formal evidence on long-run dynamics between economic development indicators and international tourism from Pakistan. It contributes to the existing literature on this vital phenomenon. The empirical results document the long-term and short-term association between the variables. We also find a two-way causal flow between economic development and tourism. In addition, it offers policy implications for focusing on three economic dimensions, e.g. economic development, financial development, and stock market development, which subsequently attracts international tourism. Intuitively, promulgates National culture and image across borders and strengthens the National Treasury as well.

scholarly journals Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand in South Africa: an Econometric Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 260-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Ziramba
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper, with the use of annual data covering the period 1975 to 2008, seeks to identify the determinants of outbound tourism demand (outbound tourist outflows) in South Africa. We employ cointegration analysis by utilising an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to make inferences about the long run and short run relationships. The results indicate that in the long run, outbound tourism demand is influenced by the real domestic income and the relative prices. Our results indicate that outbound tourism demand is a luxury good with an income elasticity of 3.5. In the short run, only relative prices have an impact on outbound tourism demand in South Africa. Outbound tourism demand was found to be price inelastic in both periods.

scholarly journals Do Exports lead Economic Output in Five Asian Countries? A Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Jiayi Huang ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

This paper examines the relationship between exports and economic output for five major Asian economies using annual data in an expanded data set and employing unit root and cointegration analysis. It employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that treats all variables in the modified production function as potentially endogenous and then determines via weak exogeneity tests whether some of the key variables can be treated as exogenous (omitted from the system). Johansen cointegration tests find a positive long-run relationship between exports and economic output for the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Cointegration tests find a negative long-run relationship between exports and economic output for India. The Block Granger causality tests and impulse response functions for the Philippines and Singapore find stronger causality from exports to economic output rather than the reverse. Granger causality tests in level form also find significant causality from exports to economic output. No causality exists between exports and economic output in the case of India. Exports seem to promote economic growth in three of the four countries that have cointegrated data, which supports the exports-led growth hypothesis found in some of the extant literature. The paper does not find cointegration for China because the variables are integrated of different orders from I(0) to I(2). 

scholarly journals Short and long-run returns to agricultural R&D in South Africa, or will the real rate of return please stand up?

2000 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Schimmelpfennig ◽  
Colin Thirtle ◽  
Johan Zyl ◽  
Carlos Arnade ◽  
Yougesh Khatri
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run

scholarly journals Interest Rate Interactions between Bangladesh and the US: Possible Pass Through From the US

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Mohammed Saiful Islam ◽  
Mohammad T. Uddin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nominal Rate ◽  
Small Economy ◽  
Pass Through

This paper investigates the long run relationship between the interest rates of Bangladesh and the United Sates (US). Using time series quarterly data for the period 1972- 2019, the study finds that the nominal rate of the US positively influences the nominal rate of Bangladesh and they do maintain a long run relationship. Similar result is obtained by examining the real rates of both countries. However, in the latter case the study period covers from the third quarter of 1993 to the third quarter of 2019. Estimation of the error correction model signifies that in both cases policy rate of Bangladesh significantly responds to the error, which is the measure of deviation from long run equilibrium. Although interest rates of Bangladesh respond to the error in both cases, the speed of adjustment is much higher in case of the real rates. Empirical findings reveal that around 6% error is corrected in every quarter if it is nominal rate whereas in the event of real rate the rate of error correction is almost 77%. These findings indicate that small economy Bangladesh plans its policy rate taking account of the dynamics of the large economy the US, and such policy dependence is more apparent for real rate of interest.

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