scholarly journals EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF CURITIBA PRISMATICA (D. LEGRAND) SALYWON & LANDRUM: AN ENDEMIC ARAUCARIA FOREST SPECIES

FLORESTA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 954
Author(s):  
Richeliel Albert Rodrigues Silva ◽  
Luciano Farinha Watzlawick ◽  
Henrique Soares Koehler ◽  
Fábio De Almeida Vieira ◽  
Fernanda Moura Fonseca Lucas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The State ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Irreversible Damage ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Ombrophilous Forest

With the occurrence of intensive climate change, there is a risk of irreversible damage to global biodiversity, resulting in reduction of geographical distribution and species extinction. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current distribution and the future projection of the areas of occurrence of Curitiba prismatica. Current occurrence data accessed in the SpeciesLink database and scientific studies were collected, which were correlated with the bioclimatic data available in WorldClim, for the current and future periods (2070), in the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model. In the current scenario, a species presents suitability restricted to mixed ombrophilous forest (MOF), with limited distribution to the center-south of the state of Paraná and the north of the state of Santa Catarina. For the future, there were reductions in the areas of climatic susceptibility for the species, both in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the predictive reduction was found in the midwest region of Paraná, unlike the RCP 8.5 scenario, which showed a low reduction in this region. Therefore, in the future, areas with high suitability will tend to contract, but restricted to the regions of the first and second plateau of Paraná and the north of Santa Catarina. In this sense, these areas are indicated for commercial planting and in situ and ex situ conservation of the species.

scholarly journals Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Goddéris ◽  
S. L. Brantley ◽  
L. M. François ◽  
J. Schott ◽  
D. Pollard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reaction Front ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Co2 Production ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Mississippi Valley ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the Peoria loess, which has been weathering for the last 13 kyr, will respond over the next 100 yr of climate change. Using a cascade of numerical models for climate (ARPEGE), vegetation (CARAIB) and weathering (WITCH), we explore the effect of an increase in CO2 of 315 ppmv (1950) to 700 ppmv (2100 projection). The increasing CO2 results in an increase in temperature along the entire transect. In contrast, drainage increases slightly for a focus pedon in the south but decreases strongly in the north. These two variables largely determine the behavior of weathering. In addition, although CO2 production rate increases in the soils in response to global warming, the rate of diffusion back to the atmosphere also increases, maintaining a roughly constant or even decreasing CO2 concentration in the soil gas phase. Our simulations predict that temperature increasing in the next 100 yr causes the weathering rates of the silicates to increase into the future. In contrast, the weathering rate of dolomite – which consumes most of the CO2 – decreases in both end members (south and north) of the transect due to its retrograde solubility. We thus infer slower rates of advance of the dolomite reaction front into the subsurface, and faster rates of advance of the silicate reaction front. However, additional simulations for 9 pedons located along the north–south transect show that the dolomite weathering advance rate will increase in the central part of the Mississippi Valley, owing to a maximum in the response of vertical drainage to the ongoing climate change. The carbonate reaction front can be likened to a terrestrial lysocline because it represents a depth interval over which carbonate dissolution rates increase drastically. However, in contrast to the lower pH and shallower lysocline expected in the oceans with increasing atmospheric CO2, we predict a deeper lysocline in future soils. Furthermore, in the central Mississippi Valley, soil lysocline deepening accelerates but in the south and north the deepening rate slows. This result illustrates the complex behavior of carbonate weathering facing short term global climate change. Predicting the global response of terrestrial weathering to increased atmospheric CO2 and temperature in the future will mostly depend upon our ability to make precise assessments of which areas of the globe increase or decrease in precipitation and soil drainage.

scholarly journals The holoplankton of the Santa Catarina coast, southern Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 575-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charrid Resgalla Jr
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Zooplankton Community ◽  
The State ◽  
Zooplankton Abundance ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
The North ◽  
Or Groups ◽  
Parvocalanus Crassirostris ◽  
Water Species ◽  
Potential Use

This paper presents information from different sampling surveys carried out along the Santa Catarina coast in order to outline the biogeographical characteristics of the zooplankton in this region and identify species or groups of species with potential use as bioindicators. Based on a checklist of species of the zooplankton community in the state, it was observed that, in the warmer months of the year, the fauna is similar to that of the states of Paraná and São Paulo (e.g. Creseis virgula f. virgula, Penilia avirostris; Acartia lilljeborgi and Oithona oswaldocruzi), while in the colder months there are coastal representatives of the fauna of Rio Grande do Sul (e.g. Acartia tonsa). However, the zooplankton consists predominantly of warm water species for most of the year, which is typical of Tropical Shelf Waters. Various species of zooplankton can be used as hydrological indicators, enabling a distinction to be made between coastal waters which are influenced by continental inputs (e.g. Paracalanus quasimodo and Parvocalanus crassirostris), common in the north of the state, and processes of upwelling (e.g. Podon intermedius) and the influence of the Subtropical Shelf Front (e.g. Pleopis polyphemoides), coming from the south. The different environments investigated present a zooplankton abundance that depends on the influence of continental inputs and the possibility of their retaining and contribution for the coastal enrichment, which varies seasonally

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1525-1557
Author(s):  
K. O'Driscoll ◽  
B. Mayer ◽  
J. Su ◽  
M. Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Pollutants ◽  
North Sea ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Persistent Organic Pollutants ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

“You’ve got to do something radical”

2021 ◽  
pp. 112-132
Author(s):  
Michael A. Messner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Justice ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intergenerational Dialogue ◽  
New Generation

The final chapter touches back on the stories of veteran activists Wendy Barranco, Phoenix Johnson, Monique Salhab, Monisha Ríos, Stephen Funk, and Brittany Ramos DeBarros to consider the future of Veterans For Peace and About Face within the larger field of national and international movements for peace and social justice. The chapter touches on the state of the current intergenerational dialogue taking place in these organizations, and ends with a critical analysis of how the intersectional praxis of a new generation of progressive activists holds the promise of bridging the struggle against militarism and war with other large issues of the day, including climate change, global pandemics, and the continuing violence of economic, racial, gender, and sexual injustice.

scholarly journals Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Shiyu Wang ◽  
Semjon Schimanke ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Birgit Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Surface Heat Budget

An ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea is validated and analyzed. Five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been downscaled with the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model RCA4-NEMO. Validation of sea surface temperature (SST) against different datasets suggests that the model results are well within the spread of observational datasets. The ensemble mean SST with a bias of less than 1 ∘ C is the solution that fits the observations best and underlines the importance of ensemble modeling. The exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater between atmosphere and ocean in the regional, coupled model compares well with available datasets. The climatological seasonal cycles of these fluxes are within the 95% confidence limits of the datasets. Towards the end of the 21st century the projected North Sea SST increases by 1.5 ∘ C (RCP 2.6), 2 ∘ C (RCP 4.5), and 4 ∘ C (RCP 8.5), respectively. Under this change the North Sea develops a specific pattern of the climate change signal for the air–sea temperature difference and latent heat flux in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In the RCP 8.5 scenario the amplitude of the spatial heat flux anomaly increases to 5 W/m 2 at the end of the century. Different hypotheses are discussed that could contribute to the spatially non-uniform change in air–sea interaction. The most likely cause for an increased latent heat loss in the central western North Sea is a drier atmosphere towards the end of the century. Drier air in the lee of the British Isles affects the balance of the surface heat budget of the North Sea. This effect is an example of how regional characteristics modulate global climate change. For climate change projections on regional scales it is important to resolve processes and feedbacks at regional scales.

scholarly journals Reptilia, Squamata, Leiosauridae, Urostrophus vautieri Duméril and Bribon, 1837: distribution extension, new state record, and geographic distribution map

Check List ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 432
Author(s):  
João Luiz Gasparini ◽  
Diogo Andrade Koski ◽  
Pedro L.V. Peloso
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
First Record ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
The State ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
The North

We present the first record of Urostrophus vautieri for the state of Espírito Santo and a distribution map for the species. This species was previoulsy known from the states of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. The present record represent an extension of nearly 200 km to the North from the nearest published record for the species.

scholarly journals Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Lotfirad ◽  
Arash Adib ◽  
Jaber Salehpoor ◽  
Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽  
Ozgur Kisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

Climate change effects on UK shelf sea’s connectivity and hydrographic properties

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Gabriela Mayorga Adame ◽  
James Harle ◽  
Jason Holt ◽  
Artioli Yuri ◽  
Sarah Wakelin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Change Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
Shelf Sea ◽  
The Uk

&lt;p&gt;Climate change is expected to cause important changes in ocean physics, which will in turn have important effects on the marine ecosystems. The ReCICLE project (&lt;strong&gt;Resolving Climate Impacts on shelf and CoastaL seas Ecosystems&lt;/strong&gt;) aims to identify and quantify the envelope of response to climate change of lower trophic level shelf-sea ecosystems and their functional interactions, in order to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem goods and services in the UK shelf seas. The central tool for this work is an ensemble of coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical ecosystem models NEMO-ERSEM Atlantic Margin Model configuration at 7 km horizontal resolution (AMM7), forced by different CIMP5 global climate change models to generate downscaled scenarios for future decades.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Changes in connectivity patterns are expected to affect coastal populations of marine organisms in shelf seas. Holt et al 2018 (GRL https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078878) showed the potential for radical reorganization of the North Sea circulation in earlier simulations. To assess this particular issue particle tracking experiments are carried out during two 10 year time slices, in the recent past (2000-2010) and in the future (2040-2050) in ensemble members of the ReCICLE AMM7 regional downscaling showing contrasting circulation patterns. Surface particles were uniformly seeded in the UK shelf seas every month and tracked for 30 days. The resulting particle trajectories are analysed with cluster analysis technics aiming to determine if persistent oceanographic boundaries re-arrange in the future climate scenarios. The ecological effects of circulation and water masses changes in the future ocean are discussed from a Lagrangian perspective.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Frog diversity in the Floresta Nacional de Chapecó, Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine Maria Lucas ◽  
Vanessa Barbisan Fortes
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Forest ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The State ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Rapid Destruction ◽  
South Of Brazil ◽  
Ombrophilous Forest

The Atlantic Forest is considered one of the world's biological diversity hotspots but is nevertheless increasingly threatened with the rapid destruction and fragmentation of its natural areas. In the state of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil, remnants of the mixed ombrophilous forest and seasonal deciduous forest exist as islands within large areas of agriculture, pastures and human settlements. Here we present information on species richness and habitat use by anurans in the Floresta Nacional de Chapecó, located in the western portion of the state of Santa Catarina. Anurans were surveyed by active search of potential reproductive sites from December 1998 to December 2001. A total of 29 species were recorded, most of which have a known distribution restricted to southern Brazil and adjacent countries (Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) and use open areas for reproduction. The species composition was most similar to other areas of mixed ombrophilous forest and seasonal deciduous forest from the extreme south of Brazil. The information in this study may support the implementation of conservation and management strategies in the area.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Lele Lin ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Lei Xie ◽  
Guofa Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
White Pine ◽  
Chinese White ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pine Species

White pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) play important roles in forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. Species of this group are narrowly distributed or endangered in China. In this study, we used a species distribution model (SDM) to project and predict the distribution patterns of the 12 species of Chinese white pine under a variety of paleoclimatic and future climate change scenarios based on 39 high-resolution environmental variables and 1459 distribution records. We also computed the centroid shift, range expansion/contraction, and suitability change of the current distribution area to assess the potential risk to each species in the future. The modeling results revealed that the suitable habitat of each species is consistent with but slightly larger than its actual distribution range and that temperature, precipitation, and UV radiation are important determining factors for the distribution of different white pine species. The results indicate that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) greatly affected the current distribution of the Chinese white pine species. Additionally, it was predicted that under the future climate change scenarios, there will be a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana. Furthermore, some of the current distribution sites of P. armandii, P. kwangtungensis, P. mastersiana, P. morrisonicola, P. sibirica, and P. wallichiana were predicted to become more unsuitable under these scenarios. These results indicate that some Chinese white pine species, such as P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana, may have a very high risk of population shrinkage in the future. Overall, this study provided relevant data for the long-term conservation (both in situ and ex situ) and sustainable management of Chinese white pine species.

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