scholarly journals Analisis Penilaian Proyek Penanaman Modal untuk Penambahan BUS dengan Metode Net Present Value pada PO. Telaga Biru Putra Pagar Alam

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-108
Author(s):  
Zulaiha
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Residual Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Cash Inflow

This study aims to determine and analyze how the analysis of investment project assessments for bus additions using the Net Present Value at Po. TelagaBiru Putra PagarAlam ". The results of the study were based on a quantitative analysis of Operational Cash flow at Po. TelagaBiru Putra PagarAlam, namely to estimate cash flow, it is necessary to determine the estimated period / time, and this is adjusted to the life of the project for the next 5 years. Outside this period, the project is considered to be no longer profitable. Because the amount of costs will exceed income. It is predicted that in 2009 net cash inflow will be received of Rp. 542,818,018, - increased in 2010 to 569,433,437, - increased in 2011 to 583,852,265, - and increased again in 2012 to 636,454,673, - and in 2013 after determining the residual value to be Rp. 892.836.049, - these values are used in determining the Net Present Value.

TINJAUAN STUDI KELAYAKAN USAHA BADAN USAHA MILIK DESA (NAGARI) KAMANG HILIA SEJAHTERA KENAGARIAN KAMANG HILIA, KECAMATAN KAMANG MAGEK, KABUPATEN AGAM, PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Halkadri Fitra ◽  
Salma Taqwa ◽  
Charoline Cheisviyanny ◽  
Abel Tasman ◽  
Nurzi Sebrina
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat kelayakan aspek keuangan usaha grosir sembako Badan Usaha Milik Desa (Nagari) Kamang Hilia Sejahtera di Kenagarian Kamang Hilia Kecamatan Kamang Magek Kabupaten Agam Provinsi Sumatera Barat yang dilakukan pada tahun 2018. Penelitian bersifat deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menggunakan metode cash flow analysis, payback period, net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return, dan average rate of return. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai net cash flow Badan Usaha Milik Desa (Nagari) Kamang Hilia Sejahtera adalah positif yaitu Rp.21.774.000, nilai payback period adalah 1,15 tahun, nilai net present value positif sebesar Rp.10.680.034,47, nilai profitability index adalah positif 1,37, sedangkan nilai internal rate of return adalah 46,7% dan nilai average rate of return adalah 57,23%. Berdasarkan standar penilaian maka semua metode yang digunakan memberikan kesimpulan bahwa usaha grosir sembako milik Badan Usaha Milik Desa (Nagari) Kamang Hilia Sejahtera dalam kategori layak untuk dilaksanakan.

AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF NET PRESENT VALUE AND EQUIVALENT ANNUAL COST

1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Jones ◽  
David Smith
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Annual Cost ◽  
Historical Development ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Net present value and equivalent annual cost are two discounted cash flow criteria for comparing investment proposals. Why have accountants taken to net present value? Why do engineers readily use equivalent annual cost? This paper investigates the historical development of these principles to provide an explanation of why this is so.

Value-Creating Investment Strategies to Manage Risk From Structural Market Uncertainties: Switching and Compound Options in (V)HTR Technologies

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike La¨uferts ◽  
Charlotte Halbe ◽  
Aliki van Heek
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Technology Investment ◽  
Compound Options ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Strategic Value

To measure the value of a technology investment under uncertainty with standard techniques like net present value (NPV) or return on investment (ROI) will often uncover the difficulty to present convincing business case. Projected cash flows are inefficient or the discount rate chosen to compensate for the risk is so high, that it is disagreeable to the investor’s requirements. Decision making and feasibility studies have to look beyond traditional analysis to reveal the strategic value of a technology investment. Here, a Real Option Analysis (ROA) offers a powerful alternative to standard discounted cash-flow (DCF) methodology by risk-adjusting the cash flow along the decision path rather than risk adjusting the discount rate. Within the GEN IV initiative attention is brought not only towards better sustainability, but also to broader industrial application and improved financing. Especially the HTR design is full of strategic optionalities: The high temperature output facilitates penetration into other non-electricity energy markets like industrial process heat applications and the hydrogen market. The flexibility to switch output in markets with multi-source uncertainties reduces downside risk and creates an additional value of over 50% with regard to the Net Present Value without flexibility. The supplement value of deploying a modular (V)HTR design adds over 100% to the project value using real option evaluation tools. Focus of this paper was to quantify the strategic value that comes along a) with the modular design; a design that offers managerial flexibility adapting a step-by-step investment strategy to the actual market demand and b) with the option to switch between two modes of operation, namely electricity and hydrogen production. We will demonstrate that the effect of uncertain electricity prices can be dampened down with a modular HTR design. By using a real option approach, we view the project as a series of compound options — each option depending on the exercise of those that preceded it. At each end of the design phase, the viability will be reviewed conditional on the operating spread at each time step. We quantify the value of being able to wait with the investment into a next block until market conditions are favourable and to be able to abandon one block if market conditions are disapproving. To derive the intrinsic value of this multi block HTR design, it will be compared with a reference investment of a full commitment light water reactor without any managerial flexibility. In another case, we raise the question to what extent product output diversification is a suitable strategy to cope with long term market uncertainty in electricity price. What is the value of a multi-potent technology that is able to produce output for energy markets others than the electricity market? To investigate this, we concentrate on The Netherlands, a country with an intense industrial demand in electricity and hydrogen.

scholarly journals Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvador Cruz Rambaud ◽  
Ana María Sánchez Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Mathematical Expression ◽  
Options Pricing ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Operational Flexibility ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Financial Options

Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV) do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

Maintenance Decisions for Offshore Structures Using Real Options Theory

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Sandra Santa-Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Maintenance Decisions ◽  
Options Theory

Real Options methods are currently used to assess investment projects considering: (1) the decision options that one can have along the development of the project, such as to expand it, or reduce it, or to abandon it, or to differ it, and (2) the uncertainty in some financial variables for the assessment of the economic investment. In these two regards, Real Options methods are superior to the traditional Net Present Value method. The purpose of the present paper is to establish the basis for Real Options modeling for decision making on design, inspection, maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore structures. The use of Real Options theory is sought in order to account for: (1) uncertainties in the financial variables involved in risk assessment based on expected costs, such as the economic consequences due to failure of a system; and (2) uncertainties associated with the resistance and loading of the structure for reliability assessment. An application of Real Options Theory is given in the paper for decision making on maintenance for an offshore structure. Cash flow from oil revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. Preventive and corrective maintenance is analyzed as a critical situation where the decision maker has the option to pay the costs of maintenance in order to obtain a benefit. Expressions are derived for the estimation of the value of the maintenance option; they are based on the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation for the evaluation of financial options. It is shown that the value of such project is equal to the sum of the net cash flow of the project (as with a Net Present Value evaluation) plus the value of the maintenance option. Projects with one and two decision times along the life of the structure are formulated and analyzed. Closed form solutions are obtained for such cases. An example is given in order to illustrate the differences between maintenance decisions using the Net Present Value and the Real Options method.

scholarly journals Using the Discount Cash Flow Model in Preliminary Assessment for Gold Mine Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1935-1940
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Eastern Desert ◽  
Cost Data ◽  
Gold Mine ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
Discount Cash Flow ◽  
Technical Factors

This study aims to the examination of the economic potential for the Abu Marawat Gold Project (AGP) in the Eastern Desert of Egypt and prediction the decision about go/not-to-go to invest in the deposit location. Discount Cash Flow (DCF) model used to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV) for the proposed gold mine project. NPV calculated by taking the risk and uncertainty produced from geological and technical factors into account. The actual production and cost data for Sukari Gold Mine (SGM) of Egypt used a benchmark for the theoretical calculation for production and cost data of AGP. From the valuation processes for AGP the NPV for the project predominantly positive, so, the project is acceptable to investment.

scholarly journals ANALISA BREAK EVEN POINT DAN NET PRESENT VALUE BERDASARKAN INPUT TARIF YANG BERLAKU DI KLINIK KESEHATAN AL - JADID SURABAYA

Jurnal IPTEK ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Kalam Mollah
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Trial And Error ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Break Even Point

Yayasan Nur Fadila yang beroperasi di beberapa wilayah di Indonesia seperti di Surabaya, Malang, Kediri dan Semarang selama ini berfokus pada pengembangan pondok pesantren dengan berbasis pada pembelajaran ilmu agama islam dan pengetahuan umum. Namun untuk saat ini Hidayatullah mengembangkan klinik kesehatan bagi masyarakat sekitar pondok pesantren. Sebagai salah satu gedung yang baru beroperasi di lingkungan pondok, maka klinik perlu melakukan analisis ulang tentang tarif yang berlaku pada saat ini. Adapun metode yang dipergunakan untuk menyelesaikan masalah tersebut adalah metode Break Even Point dan Net Present Value dengan suku bunga sebesar 12%. Dalam penyelesaiannya dengan metode BEP maka akan dimasukkan tarif yang berlaku saat ini. Dari analisa ini diperoleh tarif pada kondisi BEP sebesar Rp 36.919. Dengan cara trial and error pada cash flow melalui pendekatan Net Present Value yaitu dengan menjumlahkan tarif kelas pada kondisi Break even Point dengan asumsi kenaikan x% dari tarif normal pada kondisi BEP sehingga diperoleh Net Present Value yang lebih besar dari nol. Sehingga diperoleh hasil tarif kelas yang dicari pada kondisi NPV adalah sebesar Rp 92.298,-.

scholarly journals The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Kryzia ◽  
Michał Kopacz ◽  
Katarzyna Kryzia
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Operational Flexibility ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Technical Parameters

This paper presents an attempt to the valuation of the operational flexibility of the energy investment project based on the example of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). For this purpose, the real options approach (ROA), net present value (NPV) method, and the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation have been used. Motivations to take up such a topic result from the fact that traditional valuation methods neglect flexibility embedded in CCGT assets. Operational flexibility was defined as the switching option to dynamically shut down and restart gas units. Valuation of the operational flexibility, the project’s extended net present value (XNPV), was based on a discounted cash flow model. The Monte Carlo simulation, allowing for better replication of the stochastic nature of market factors and some technical parameters, was introduced to the valuation model. The obtained results indicate that the value of the options significantly influences the NPV of the analyzed technology and its risk profile. The NPV was calculated at −169.1 million USD, while the XNPV amounted to 102.5 million USD. This difference, compared to the NPV distribution range at a significance level of 0.05, was more than 8.1% (almost 10.4% for α = 0.1). The results achieved help to explain the significance of the operational flexibility in the modeling profitability of CCGT technologies.

OPTIMASI STRIPPING RATIO DENGAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW PADA PROJECT PLTU MULUT TAMBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-133
Author(s):  
Yudi Arista Yulanda ◽  
M. Taufik Toha ◽  
Fahrurrozi Syarkowi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Harga batubara acuan pada bulan Januari 2020 adalah 65.93 USD/ton turun jauh dari tahun 2018 dimana harga batubara acuan sempat mencapai 107.83 USD/ton pada bulan Agustus. Dalam upaya menaikkan ratio elektrifikasi dalam RUPTL PLN 2018-2027 PLTU Mulut Tambang mendapatkan porsi 11 persen dengan peningkatan jumlah pembangkit setiap tahun nya. Keberadaan Batubara sebagai sumber daya alam yang terbatas dan tidak dapat diperbaharui menuntut penerapan prinsip konservasi cadangan batubara untuk mengoptimalkan keuntungan dan cadangan dengan memilih Stripping Ratio yang optimum. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk menentukan Stripping Ratio Optimum yang akan memberikan keuntungan terbaik menggunakan metode discounted cash flow sehingga batas penambangan optimum (Ultimate Pit Limit) juga dapat ditentukan. Optimasi ini dilakukan dengan men-generate data variasi Stripping Ratio yang menggambarkan pit limit dan cadangan dari masing-masing stripping ratio tersebut kemudian memasukkan konsiderasi ekonomi yang di discount rate untuk mendapat angka Net Present Value (NPV) sehingga bisa dianalisis dalam kurva optimasi. Hasil penelitian adalah Stripping Ratio optimum berdasarkan kurva optimasi dengan metode Konvensional NPV skenario Spot Price adalah 4.5 dengan total cadangan 7.5jt MT dan umur tambang 8 Tahun serta NPV 21,7 juta US$.

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