scholarly journals Do Budget Deficit Crowds Out Private Investment: A Case of Tanzanian Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
Samwel Mwigeka
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Study Results ◽  
High Government ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
Private Investors

The existing high budget deficit in Tanzanian economy has created an immense concern among economic policy analysts. The study inspects whether budget deficits crowd out or crowd in private investment in Tanzania, using annual data for the period from 1970 to 2012. Using the Johansen cointegration test advocates there is at least one cointegration vector among these variables. Given such condition, the application vector error correction model (VEC) became inevitable as it presents additional and superior information in relation to other data production processes. The results indicate a close long–term connection between private investment, and other variables included in the study. Results suggest that budget deficits considerably crowds out private investment. The study advocates that government should readdress its fiscal policy that would support the private investors. The government should discourage high government expenditures and maintaining a low fiscal deficit also capital market should be used to finance budget deficit.

scholarly journals Do Budget Deficit Crowds out Private Investment: A Case of Tanzanian Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Samwel Mwigeka
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
High Government ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

The existing high budget deficit in Tanzanian economy has created an immense concern among economic policy analysts. The study investigates whether budget deficits crowd out or crowd in private investment in Tanzania, using annual data covering the period from 1970 to 2012.  Using the Johansen cointegration test suggests there is at least one cointegration vector among these variables. Under such circumstances, we employed a vector error correction model (VEC), since it offers more and better information compared to other data generation processes. The results point to a close long–term relationship between private investment, and other variables included in the study. Results suggest that budget deficits significantly crowds out private investment. These results substantiate the theoretical predictions and are also supported by previous studies. The paper recommends that government should redirect it fiscal policy that would favor the private investor by discouraging high government expenditure and maintaining a low fiscal deficit. Also, to avoid crowding out effect, capital market should be used to finance budget deficit. JEL Classifications Code: H6

Determinants of Budget Deficit in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Maimuna M Shehu ◽  
Ibrahim M Adamu
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
High Level

This paper investigates the factors governing the determination of budget deficit in Nigeria from 1981q1 through 2016q4. Our methodology is based on Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) approach. The result from the Johansen cointegration test suggests one cointegrating vector, which indicates the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship. Evidence from the long run and short run parameters suggest that exchange rate, interest rate and one year lag of budget deficit are the major determinants of budget deficit. Therefore, to achieve a realistic fiscal surplus, the government should determine a high level of accountability in its fiscal operations. In addition, any fiscal surplus should be channeled into productive investments to diversify the economy and reduce the likelihood of potential budget deficits.

scholarly journals Tax Revenue Productivity of Tax Reforms in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
James Murunga ◽  
Nelson W. Wawire ◽  
Moses K. Muriithi
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government

Kenya has continued to experience increasing budget deficits. This is despite implementing various tax reforms. To finance the deficit, the Kenyan government should either raise more tax revenue or resort to borrowing. Domestic borrowing crowds out investment while external debt specifically non-concessional loans are tied to some unpopular conditions. The government has an option of considering non-concessional loans but this comes with a price of high interest rates and short payment periods. This means raising more tax with minimum burden is the best option. This study therefore seeks to investigate the responsiveness of Kenya’s tax system to GDP and Discretionary tax measures for the period between 1970 and 2018. Variables used in the study are integrated of order one. Johansen cointegration test reveals presence long run relationship thus informing the study to consider Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results reveal that Kenya’s tax system is inelastic but buoyant. This implies that the Kenyan tax system is unresponsive to GDP but responsive to discretionary tax measures. The finding of inelastic tax system has implications for the fiscal policy. The fiscal policy’s managers should target reducing or eliminating the tax exemptions, which might be eroding the effective tax base.

A Comparative Study of the Central Administration Budget Preparation Process in Turkey and Sweden

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Fatma Turna ◽  
Nihan Kurtulmaz ◽  
Burak Kozali
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Budget Process ◽  
Preparation Process ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Central Administration ◽  
The Government ◽  
Budget Surplus

Sweden was one of the countries among the OECD states yielding maximum budget surplus at the end of 1980s and became one of the countries yielding maximum budget deficits in the first years of the 1990s. The budget deficit almost doubled in five years. During that period, the government decided the most important reason of the budget deficits was the budget process itself and commenced studies to reform the budget process and enhance its consistency and reliability. Basic steps were taken to grant budget surplus for whole public sector, to set an allowance cap for whole public sector and create equivalent budget structure for all municipalities and a series of studies were conducted. In this study, the stage of the budget preparation process in Turkey and Sweden will be reviewed and compared to the budget preparation process in Sweden with the budget preparation process in Turkey.

scholarly journals Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The primary motivation behind this study was to explore the consequential effects of budget deficit on South Africa`s economic growth. Six variables were used, namely: real GDP, budget deficit, real interest rate, labour, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to estimate the long-run equation and also measure the correction from disequilibrium of preceding periods. Using annual time series data spanning the period 1985 to 2015, empirical evidence from the study revealed that budget deficits and economic growth are inversely related. It was therefore concluded that high levels of budget deficit in South Africa have detrimental effects on the growth of the economy. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study revealed that about 29 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within one year. The results obtained in this study are favourably similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by previous studies.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Budget Deficits On Macro-Economic Variables In The Nigerian Economy (1981 – 2012)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 164-183
Author(s):  
B.O Osuka ◽  
Achinihu Joy Chioma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of budget deficits on macro-economic variables in the Nigerian economy for theperiod 1981-2012. This study sought to find out if there is a long-run relationship between budget deficits and other macro-economic variables in Nigeria. The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methods for finding out the presence of unit root in all variables and found that they are stationary at first differencing; they are 1(1). We also used Johansen Cointegration test to check for the cointegration of the variables and found that the variables in the study are all cointegrated of order one showing the presence of long-run relationship between budget deficits and our selected macro-economic variables ( GDP, interest rate, nominal exchange rate and inflation rate). The Granger Causality results reveal that there is a uni-directional Granger-causality between Budget deficits and GDP with GDP granger causing budget deficit. However, the test for causality showed that there exists no causality between deficits and interest rate, budget deficits and inflation and budget deficit and nominal exchange rate. We thereby concluded that budget deficits exert significant impact on the macro-economic performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommend that since budget deficits could crowd-in investment through its reducing effects in interest rate, but emphasis should be placed on capital goods expenditure to make it have positive effect on GDP and thereby contribute to economic growth and development.

scholarly journals Testing the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis in the case of Ethiopia: An autoregressive-distributed lag approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-49
Author(s):  
Sisay Demissew Beyene ◽  
Balázs Kotosz
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
The Government

The Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests that when the government attempts to stimulate the economy by raising debt-financed government spending, consumption and demand do not increase but rather remain the same. The objective of this study is to test the existence of the REH in Ethiopia, using annual data from 1990 to 2011 and by employing the autoregressive-distributed lag cointegration approach. The study includes three variables (budget deficit, government consumption expenditure, and government debt) which contribute to the REH along with another variable. The results show that only the budget deficit and government consumption expenditure fulfil the REH. However, government debt fails to fulfil it. Thus, limited evidence of the existence of the REH is found in Ethiopia.

Does government expenditure reduce unemployment in Egypt?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag ◽  
Rasha Qutb
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis research seeks to empirically examine the impact of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt during the period of 1980–2017. In addition, it examines whether the distinction between discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure have a different effect on unemployment.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the Johansen cointegration test to ensure the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, then the vector error correction model (VECM) to explore the dynamic short and long-run effects.FindingsThe empirical results of this research reveal that increasing government expenditure causes an increase in the unemployment rate in the long-run. Both discretionary expenditures and nondiscretionary expenditures increase the growth of unemployment by approximately the same coefficient. The worsening impact of discretionary expenditures on unemployment is highly attributed to the compensation of employees and the government subsidies. Investment expenditure has an insignificant effect because of its minor percentage in government expenses.Practical implicationsRedirecting the unnecessary expenditures toward labor-intensive public investments is recommended, in addition to reducing domestic and foreign debts. The government has to work hard to increase the economic growth rate, as it has a vital role in reducing unemployment.Originality/valueThis study is one of the first attempts to analyze the effect of government expenditure on the unemployment rate in Egypt. Moreover, this research distinguishes between the effects related to discretionary and nondiscretionary items of government expenditure.

Trade Deficit in Nepal: Relationship between Trade Deficit and Budget Deficits

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 95-108
Author(s):  
Khom Raj Karel ◽  
Suman Kharel
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Strong Positive Relationship ◽  
The Government ◽  
India And China

Nepal has bitter experiences of trade deficit; it has become the tradition of the country. The trade deficit of Nepal has been widening since the decades. The statistical data shows that around 80 percent of imports are from India and China. The growth trend of foreign trade has been increasing in different years after year with a huge amount of trade deficit. As the size of foreign trade increased the trade deficit of Nepal has-been increasing as well. The government of Nepal has been announcing the deficit budget. This study focused to analyze the trends of trade deficit of Nepal and observing the relations of trade deficit and budget deficit. Simple statistical tools are applied to analyze the trend and growth of foreign trade of Nepal and correlation and simple linear regression model has been used to examine the linkages between trade deficit and budget deficit of Nepal. The study has found a strong positive relationship between trade deficit and budget deficit of Nepal. As result, there is a significant impact of budget deficit on trade deficit. The finding of the regression analysis indicates that budget deficit is a significant predictor of trade deficit.

GDP in an open economy model

2019 ◽  
pp. 98-123
Author(s):  
Kazimierz Łaski
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Significant Similarity ◽  
Government Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

This chapter deals with international trade in so far as it affects the course of macroeconomic processes. In a closed economy without the government sector, production is determined by private investment and the multiplier mechanism. The government’s activity may expand or contract the market if the government’s expenditure exceeds the demand-depressing effects of taxation so that the resulting budget deficit increases the market. If we incorporate the rest of the world (ROW) in this model, then ROW’s expenditures, resulting in exports, add to the domestic market, and ROW’s revenues, resulting in imports, reduce this market. Thus, if ROW’s expenditures and revenues are equal, then the domestic market volume remains unchanged. However, if ROW’s expenditures are higher than its revenues, then ROW’s deficit leads to an expansion of the domestic market through the foreign trade multiplier. As can be seen, there is a significant similarity between ROW’s deficit (the trade surplus of an individual country) and a budget deficit run by the government, but the macroeconomic roles of the government and ROW differ in some important aspects.

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