scholarly journals Validation of J-Curve Hypothesis in the Nigerian Non Oil Sector

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Jude O. Obasanmi ◽  
Fidelis O. Nedozi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Impact

J-Curve is a term used to describe the impact of currency devaluation on a country’s balance of trade. In carrying out the study, two objectives stated which are; the validation of the j-curve hypothesis in the short (SR) and long runs (LR). Also, the researcher used the OLS in addition to distributed lag model because exchange rate devaluation does not take effect immediately giving room for lag model effect. The study span from 1985-2014. The study adopted its model from Rose and Yellen (1989) and Rose (1990). The unit root test was used to determine the stationarity of the data. From the results, the OLS result showed delayed J-curve hypothesis. Under the distributed lag (DL), the result shows obedience to the J-curve hypothesis. It is concluded that, policy makers should implement the theory only when the aggregate exchange rate differential between export (non oil) and import (all) is continuously greater than one or equal to one in favour of export (non oil export). One of the recommendations of the study is that policy makers should know that in the current competitive globe, no importing economy will relax to see its economy be a dumping ground (import bias), so superior trade policies should be advocated and implemented. The sustenance of development is one of Nigeria’s challenges. The major policy implication of the study is that Nigeria should diversify the economy, deepen its non oil export and improve its infrastructural base.

Does Trade Liberalisation Policy Enhance Performance of Non-Oil Export Trade in Nigeria?

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-260
Author(s):  
Marius Ikpe ◽  
Richard Okey Ojike ◽  
Kenneth Onyeanuna Ahamba
Keyword(s):  
Poor Performance ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Major Player ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Liberalisation Policy ◽  
The Impact

Decades after the trade liberalisation policy shift, poor performance problem of non-oil export in Nigeria (a net-oil exporting economy) persists. Against this backdrop, and given the lack of analytical depth among Nigerian-specific studies, this study empirically provided answer to the question of whether trade liberalisation policy enhances non-oil export trade in Nigeria. The study adopted an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach to the analysis of the impact of trade liberalisation policy on non-oil export trade. Evidence provided support for trade liberalisation policy as the growth driver for non-oil export, a sector that exports more but earns little in terms of revenue. As a result, the study recommends a well thought-out public–private partnership arrangement for the efficiency of the private sector (a major player in non-oil export trade), to optimally harness the benefits of liberalisation in Nigeria’s non-oil trade sub-sector. JEL Codes: F14, F17, F41, F62

scholarly journals Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (05) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alwell Nteegah ◽  
Mansi Nelson ◽  
Moses Owede
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth in Nigeria. In order to achieve the objectives of examining the trend in trade and growth and impact of trade liberalization on economic growth, times series data were sourced and analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). Findings from the study revealed that oil export and non-oil import impacted positively and significantly on economic growth both in the short and long runs. The results also show that oil and non-oil imports retarded economic growth in both short and long run periods. Specifically, oil import was found to significantly diminished economic growth in Nigeria. Nigeria imports refined petroleum products hence spends huge financial resources to finance its imports. This has affected the economy negatively as funds meant for other developmental purposes are spent on petroleum products importation. Based on these findings, the study suggests increase in oil export by providing conducive environment for oil operations, improvement in non-oil export by diversifying the products base of the economy and building local capacity in oil exploration and refining in order to end petroleum products imports in Nigeria.

scholarly journals EVIDENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF THE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY ON INFLATION:

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

The research is aimed at evaluating the existence of asymmetry or otherwise of the impact of devaluation of currency on inflation in Malaysia for the period 1970 – 2017. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was used as the evaluation econometric tool of the research. The findings of the study reveal that devaluation of currency has an inflationary impact in both short run and long run. Whereas, revaluation of currency does not have any impact neither in the short run nor in the long run. This confirms the upward flexibility of the impact of the increases in the changes in the exchange rate on inflation at the same time reaffirms its rigidity downward.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals The impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Abubakar Aminu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of education tax and investment in human capital on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of cointegration covering the period of 25 years from 1995 to 2019. The findings reveal that education tax and investment in human capital have positive and significant effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy over the sampled period. The paper recommends that in order to boost the economy, Nigeria would need to, among other policy frameworks, provide a suitable environment for ensuring macro-economic stability through effective utilization of income from education tax that will encourage increased investment in human capital in the public sector. In addition to income from education tax, for effective and speedy economic growth and development in Nigeria, the government, beneficiaries (students/parents), employers of labor and other stakeholders in the society should share the responsibility for financing primary, secondary and tertiary education, so as to provide a solid foundation for human capital development. However, as revealed in this paper, the contribution of education tax and investment in human capital is most likely to be realized over a long-run period than in the short term. Keywords: Education Tax; Investment; Human capital; Economic growth

scholarly journals PENDUGAAN PARAMETER MODEl DISTRIBUTED LAG POLA POLINOMIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE ALMON

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-772
Author(s):  
Fitria Virgantari ◽  
Wilda Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
The Impact

The distributed lag model is a regression  model that describes the relationship between the dependent variable of a given period and the independent variables of a certain or previous periods. The model can be used to determine the impact of the independent variable to dependent variables over time and forecast time series data for the next periods. There are two forms of distributed lag model that have been widely proposed in the estimation of distributed lag regression model. The first form  is proposed by Koyck and the second form by Almon. This paper aims to apply the Almon model to examine the effect of  the ratio of BOPO (Operating Cost and Operating Income) to the ROA (Return on Asset) of a government bank based on quarterly data, to estimate its parameters, to examine the feasibility of the model, and to predict the next quarter.  Results shows that distributed lag model is  = 10.110 - 0.078  + 0.015  + 0.026  – 0.045  with Yt is ROA, and Xt is the ratio BOPO  on the 1st quarter until the previous 3 quarters. The model is quite good according to the determination coefficient that is 0.75, no autocorrelation in the model, t test and F test are also significant. Based on the model, the value of ROA ratio next quarter predicted 4.63%. The decrease in profitability ROA ratio is due to an increase in interest expense while interest income can not compensate

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