scholarly journals The Leveraged ETF Inefficiency in Trending & Range-Bound Markets: An Application Case Study for a 3x Leveraged Gold Miners ETF

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Vasiliki A. Basdekidou
Keyword(s):  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Back Testing ◽  
Gold Miners ◽  
Term Basis ◽  
Leveraged Etf

The main goal of this paper is to introduce the leveraged ETF die-down price action technical market anomaly (leveraged ETF anomaly), and then to discuss the temporal dimension and the subsequent (time-series) functionalities of this anomaly (temporal leveraged ETF anomaly). Our approach not only challenging the efficient-market hypothesis with regards to constantly declining leveraged ETF price action course, but also has a temporal dimension because it uses the Jesse Livermore’s “psychological time” as parameter in both functions: (i) “emotional control” for opening position at the beginning of an intraday or short-term move and thereafter for holding this position; and (ii) in “money risk management - exit policy” for closing position. Traditional fundamental analysis theories and technical analysis rules and approaches are not able to interpret the die-down (i.e. a constantly declining in a mid- and long-term basis) leveraged ETF price action course. Instead, a rational dynamic and temporal representative agent could explain and document better this anomaly and this is the case of this article (i.e. trading exploitation functionality). The presented research shows that the proposed temporal leveraged ETF anomaly accumulates profit entirely overnight in sideways and in choppy markets, while in a trending market the profit occurs intraday. These findings for the leveraged ETF instruments reject classical theories of trending and sideways markets returns. Hence, (i) in a sideways or in a choppy market, a well designed overnight-position return strategy based on temporal leveraged ETF anomaly; and (ii) in a trending market, a well designed daytime-position return strategy based on temporal leveraged ETF anomaly as well, could gain benefit at the expense of hedgers and long-term investors respectively. After back-testing our research in available 5-year data for the JNUG 3x leveraged ETF (gold miners juniors), we found that overnight-position speculators, in sideways or choppy markets, profit from the proposed temporal leveraged ETF trading strategy approach at the expense of hedgers; and daytime swing traders, in trending markets, profit from the proposed temporal leveraged ETF trading strategy approach at the expense of long-term investors.

scholarly journals The Momentum & Trend-Reversal as Temporal Market Anomalies

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Vasiliki A. Basdekidou
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Back Testing ◽  
Post Market ◽  
Momentum Trading ◽  
Trend Reversal

The main goal of this paper is to introduce and discuss the temporal dimension and the subsequent (time-series) functionalities of two well-known technical market anomalies - the momentum anomaly and the trend-reversal anomaly. Our approach not only challenging the efficient-market hypothesis but also has a temporal dimension because it uses the “psychological time” at the beginning of a move, as a parameter in overnight post-market asset position trading strategies and daytime asset position strategies as well. Momentum and reversal have been documented extensively in financial literature and they are viewed, in the current paper, as temporal momentum and temporal trend-reversal anomalies because they are hard to fully explain within the standard static asset-pricing paradigm. A rational dynamic and temporal representative agent could explain and document better these anomalies and this is the case of this article. The presented research shows that momentum profit accumulates entirely overnight, while trend-reversal profit occurs entirely intraday. These findings reject classical theories of intraday and overnight returns. Hence, (i) a well designed overnight-position return strategy based on temporal momentum anomaly; and (ii) a well designed intraday-position return strategy based on temporal trend-reversal anomaly, could gain benefit at the expense of long-term investors and hedgers. After back-testing our research in available 16-year data, we found that overnight-position speculators profit from the proposed temporal momentum trading strategy approach at the expense of hedgers, and daytime swing traders profit from the proposed temporal trend-reversal trading strategy approach at the expense of long-term investors.

Cordaid’s Post-Disaster Shelter Strategy in Haiti: Linking Relief and Development

2014 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 77-85
Author(s):  
Harmen Janse ◽  
Kees van der Flier
Keyword(s):  
Urban Area ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Life Support ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Urban Context ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
Post Disaster

Haiti was struck by a heavy earthquake in 2010 and international aid poured into the country. News reports in 2011 were not very positive about the results of post-disaster reconstruction: “The relief efforts are only putting Haiti on life-support instead of evolving into the next stage of development”. One of the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) involved in Haiti was Cordaid, implementing a ‘transitional shelter strategy’ to support the transformation of neigh-bourhoods from a state of life-support into a state of self-sustaining development. The strategy was implemented in both a rural and an urban area. The main feature of the strategy was the provision of structures that could be adapted from simple shelters to permanent houses. Since the results of the strategy were mixed and ambiguous, a comparative case study was conducted to evaluate the shelter strategy in both areas. The objective was to draw lessons about what has to be taken into account when formulating future urban shelter strategies. The case study is discussed in this article. The main finding from the case study is that producing the intended number of shelters within the financial and time budgets that were set (efficiency), was more difficult in the urban area than in the rural area. But the conditions for linking relief and development (effectiveness) are more favourable in the urban context. NGOs may achieve long-term (effective) results in the urban context when a lower efficiency can be justified. That is why NGOs need to engage in a debate about the extent to which they are able to focus on long-term shelter or housing strategies. The important element in the debate is communication with the donors who are often focused on short-term relief measures. However urban areas cannot be rebuilt with only short-term interventions. The link between relief and development has to be made by a process-orientated approach focusing on capacities of local participants.

Disaster Management and Continuity Planning in Libraries

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Hamilton ◽  
Diane Brown
Keyword(s):  
Success Factor ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Continuity Planning ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Asset Recovery ◽  
Disaster Preparation

Libraries are taking on new roles in a disaster and with that comes strategic responsibilities beyond traditional asset recovery activities. In the past, library disaster plans have emphasized recovery of materials. Here, the emphasis is on continuing business operations. Libraries have become the centers of communication for their communities in a crisis. This article will demonstrate the essential role of libraries before, during and after a disaster, both short term and long term and how to get a seat at the table with community planners by demonstrating the functions that are critical to recovery. A literature review and case study are used to develop these recommendations. A critical success factor is to use a disaster preparation methodology that includes a business continuity plan.

scholarly journals Challenges in modelling isoprene and monoterpene emission dynamics of Arctic plants: a case study from a subarctic tundra heath

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 6651-6667 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Tang ◽  
Guy Schurgers ◽  
Hanna Valolahti ◽  
Patrick Faubert ◽  
Päivi Tiiva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Response Curve ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Arctic Plants ◽  
Scale Modelling

Abstract. The Arctic is warming at twice the global average speed, and the warming-induced increases in biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions from Arctic plants are expected to be drastic. The current global models' estimations of minimal BVOC emissions from the Arctic are based on very few observations and have been challenged increasingly by field data. This study applied a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, as a platform to investigate short-term and long-term BVOC emission responses to Arctic climate warming. Field observations in a subarctic tundra heath with long-term (13-year) warming treatments were extensively used for parameterizing and evaluating BVOC-related processes (photosynthesis, emission responses to temperature and vegetation composition). We propose an adjusted temperature (T) response curve for Arctic plants with much stronger T sensitivity than the commonly used algorithms for large-scale modelling. The simulated emission responses to 2 °C warming between the adjusted and original T response curves were evaluated against the observed warming responses (WRs) at short-term scales. Moreover, the model responses to warming by 4 and 8 °C were also investigated as a sensitivity test. The model showed reasonable agreement to the observed vegetation CO2 fluxes in the main growing season as well as day-to-day variability of isoprene and monoterpene emissions. The observed relatively high WRs were better captured by the adjusted T response curve than by the common one. During 1999–2012, the modelled annual mean isoprene and monoterpene emissions were 20 and 8 mg C m−2 yr−1, with an increase by 55 and 57 % for 2 °C summertime warming, respectively. Warming by 4 and 8 °C for the same period further elevated isoprene emission for all years, but the impacts on monoterpene emissions levelled off during the last few years. At hour-day scale, the WRs seem to be strongly impacted by canopy air T, while at the day–year scale, the WRs are a combined effect of plant functional type (PFT) dynamics and instantaneous BVOC responses to warming. The identified challenges in estimating Arctic BVOC emissions are (1) correct leaf T estimation, (2) PFT parameterization accounting for plant emission features as well as physiological responses to warming, and (3) representation of long-term vegetation changes in the past and the future.

scholarly journals Alternatives to groundwater abstraction as a measure to stop land subsidence: a case study of Semarang, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 01003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley Beek ◽  
Bart Letitre ◽  
H. Hadiyanto ◽  
S. Sudarno
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Treatment Services

The Water as Leverage project aims to lay a blueprint for urban coastal areas around the world that are facing a variety of water-related issues. The blueprint is based upon three real case studies in Bangladesh, India and Indonesia. The case of Indonesia focuses on Semarang, a city that faces issues like flooding, increased water demand, and a lack of wastewater treatment. In this report I summarise the different techniques available to tackling these issues. Along with this I provide a cost-benefit analysis to support decision makers. For a short term it is recommended to produce industrial water from (polluted) surface water as a means to offer an alternative to groundwater abstraction. On a long term it is recommended to install additional wastewater and drinking water treatment services to facilitate better hygiene and a higher quality of life.

Time Series Forecasting in Retail Sales Using LSTM and Prophet

2021 ◽  
pp. 241-262
Author(s):  
Clony Junior ◽  
Pedro Gusmão ◽  
José Moreira ◽  
Ana Maria M. Tome
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Special Kind ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Use Of Time

Data science highlights fields of study and research such as time series, which, although widely explored in the past, gain new perspectives in the context of this discipline. This chapter presents two approaches to time series forecasting, long short-term memory (LSTM), a special kind of recurrent neural network (RNN), and Prophet, an open-source library developed by Facebook for time series forecasting. With a focus on developing forecasting processes by data mining or machine learning experts, LSTM uses gating mechanisms to deal with long-term dependencies, reducing the short-term memory effect inherent to the traditional RNN. On the other hand, Prophet encapsulates statistical and computational complexity to allow broad use of time series forecasting, prioritizing the expert's business knowledge through exploration and experimentation. Both approaches were applied to a retail time series. This case study comprises daily and half-hourly forecasts, and the performance of both methods was measured using the standard metrics.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Ming Cheng ◽  
Chien-Lin Huang ◽  
Nien-Sheng Hsu ◽  
Chih-Chiang Wei
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Short Term

Research of Resource-Exhausted Mining Site Regeneration

2011 ◽  
Vol 368-373 ◽  
pp. 3210-3216
Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
David Hong Wu ◽  
Wei Ju Yang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Site ◽  
Industry Development ◽  
Road System

The research analyzed Pangzhuang mining site as case study and studied the current situation of the site from varies aspects, such as land use, economy and transportation system etc. Some strategies are further developed to recycle the declined mining site. The objectives of the mining site regeneration are established based on the study. The recycle planning contents are further elaborate from three aspects of function layout, industry development and road system. According to the planning objectives, the paper summarizes short term and long term targets.

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