A SIMULATION-BASED METHODOLOGY FOR EVALUATING THE FACTORS ON SHIP EMERGENCY EVACUATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 159 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
P A Sarvari ◽  
E Cevikcan
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Time Difference ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
First Time

There are many hazards on a ship that makes an emergency evacuation process inevitable. Providing safe and effective evacuation of passengers from ships in an emergency situation becomes critical. Handling a real ship evacuation practice is often unaffordable as modelling such an environment is very expensive and may cause severe distress to participants. As an alternative, simulation models have been used to overwhelm the issue above in recent years. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel simulation-based methodology for evaluating the effect of factors including physical as well as psychological passenger characteristics and routeing systematic on emergency evacuation process for public marine transportation. A detailed questionnaire has been conducted in this work to reflect passenger characteristics on simulation model in a more realistic manner. Also, a new routeing systematic is developed to provide an efficient evacuation procedure. As another contribution, a novel grid-based approach where the meshed discretized nodes can contain more than one passenger is proposed in simulation model for the first time. Then, a statistical analysis is included within the methodology to assess the importance level of each factor on evacuation time. The proposed methodology is applied to a real life Ro-Ro ferry. A validation protocol based on IMO regulations is conducted and confirmed the effectiveness of the suggested simulation model. The simulation of different scenario types have indicated the influencing factors in a ship emergency evacuation. According to results, passenger characteristics has been identified as the most dominant factor on evacuation performance. The highest evacuation time difference has been observed for different levels of weight attribute. Moreover, it is concluded that the consideration of load utilization balancing among evacuation systems for routeing decreases evacuation time significantly. Finally, significant evacuation time difference between grid approaches have been demonstrated.

A Simulation-Based Methodology for Evaluating the Factors on Ship Emergency Evacuation

2017 ◽  
Vol 159 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
P A Sarvari ◽  
E Cevikcan
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Emergency Situation ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Time Difference ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
First Time

There are many hazards on a ship that makes an emergency evacuation process inevitable. Providing safe and effective evacuation of passengers from ships in an emergency situation becomes critical. Handling a real ship evacuation practice is often unaffordable as modelling such an environment is very expensive and may cause severe distress to participants. As an alternative, simulation models have been used to overwhelm the issue above in recent years. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel simulation-based methodology for evaluating the effect of factors including physical as well as psychological passenger characteristics and routeing systematic on emergency evacuation process for public marine transportation. A detailed questionnaire has been conducted in this work to reflect passenger characteristics on simulation model in a more realistic manner. Also, a new routeing systematic is developed to provide an efficient evacuation procedure. As another contribution, a novel grid-based approach where the meshed discretized nodes can contain more than one passenger is proposed in simulation model for the first time. Then, a statistical analysis is included within the methodology to assess the importance level of each factor on evacuation time. The proposed methodology is applied to a real life Ro-Ro ferry. A validation protocol based on IMO regulations is conducted and confirmed the effectiveness of the suggested simulation model. The simulation of different scenario types have indicated the influencing factors in a ship emergency evacuation. According to results, passenger characteristics has been identified as the most dominant factor on evacuation performance. The highest evacuation time difference has been observed for different levels of weight attribute. Moreover, it is concluded that the consideration of load utilization balancing among evacuation systems for routeing decreases evacuation time significantly. Finally, significant evacuation time difference between grid approaches have been demonstrated.

Validation of Shiphandling Simulation Models

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tor E. Berg ◽  
Edvard Ringen
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Test Scheme ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Simulation Tools ◽  
Benchmark Study ◽  
Actual Application

This paper describes the need for improved methods for validating numerical models used in shiphandling simulators. Such models vary in complexity, from rather simplistic models used for initial shiphandling training at maritime training centers to high-quality models used in the study of advanced marine operations. High-quality simulation models are also used in investigations of maritime accidents such as collisions and groundings. The SIMMAN 2008 conference presented the results of benchmarking studies of simulation tools currently used by research institutes, universities and training centers around the world. Many of these tools employ models based on numerical calculations using methods based on potential or viscous fluid flow, experiments using scale ship models (free running or captive) or semi empirical expressions based on regression analysis of previous model tests. The organizers of SIMMAN 2008 made the hull characteristics of certain ship types available for a comparative study of simulation maneuvering models. The outcome of the benchmark study (using IMO standard maneuvers as case study maneuvers) showed that simulated results varied significantly. In the opinion of the authors, there is an urgent need for new validation studies. The first part of this paper discusses the concepts of simulation model fidelity, verification and validation and the present guidelines issued by ITTC for validation of maneuvering simulation models. The second part looks at the outcomes of the SIMMAN 2008 conference and describes MARINTEK’s contribution to the benchmark study. The use of real-world measurements in model validation is briefly discussed. The need for registration of actual test conditions, as well as the types of tests that should be included in a test scheme, are presented. Finally, the authors discuss validation requirements with respect to the actual application of the selected simulation model as an engineering tool that can be transferred to training simulators used by maritime training centers. It is assumed that simplified simulation models may reduce the quality of simulator based training for ship officers. It is believed that increased quality of simulator model will improve the transfer of training from simulators to real life operations and remove some of the uncertainties related to investigation of maritime accidents.

Stochastic Model Bias Correction of Dynamic System Responses for Simulation-Based Reliability Analysis

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhimin Xi ◽  
Hao Pan ◽  
Ren-Jye Yang
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Dynamic System ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Model Bias ◽  
Thermal Problem ◽  
Simulation Based

Reliability analysis based on the simulation model could be wrong if the simulation model were not validated. Various model bias correction approaches have been developed to improve the model credibility by adding the identified model bias to the baseline simulation model. However, little research has been conducted for simulation models with dynamic system responses. This paper presents such a framework for model bias correction of dynamic system responses for reliability analysis by addressing three technical components including: i) a validation metric for dynamic system responses, ii) an effective approach for dynamic model bias calibration and approximation, and iii) reliability analysis considering the dynamic model bias. Two case studies including a thermal problem and a corroded beam problem are employed to demonstrate the proposed approaches for simulation-based reliability analysis.

scholarly journals A Simulation-Based Scheduling Methodology for Construction Projects Considering the Potential Impacts of Delay Risks

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Camilo Paz ◽  
David Rozenboim ◽  
Álvaro Cuadros ◽  
Sandra Cano ◽  
John Escobar
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Mathematical Structure ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Importance Measure ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
History Of

This paper tackles the problem of scheduling construction projects considering the influence of delay risks. In the actual body of knowledge, several methods have been proposed to handle this problem, starting from the Project Evaluation and Review Technique to advanced simulation models. However, this investigation proposes a novel integration of one methodology with some approaches already existing in the literature related to Monte Carlo Simulation scheduling techniques as seen from the perspective of a practitioner. The research began with a literature review of both schedule risks and Monte Carlo based scheduling models for construction projects. Based on this, the methodology was designed with the constant participation of experts in the construction industry. As result of this, a comprehensive and practical methodology was constructed. Therefore, a new mathematical structure for the simulation model within the methodology was formulated in which a new concept for each risk defined as “potential impact” was used. Moreover, the simulation model is based on the judgment of experts and methods of the known literature such as the explicit model of the occurrence probability of the risks and the activity-risk factor matrix. Then, to validate the tool, the proposed methodology was applied using the information of an already constructed construction project of a public university of Colombia. The obtained results were a confidence-based forecast of the end date of the project and a quantitative importance measure of the modelled risks. These results were compared against the real history of the project since it was found an excellent performance of the proposed methodology. To sum up, the research process described above supports the validity of the proposed methodology.

Uncommon exit arrangement effects in airplane emergency evacuation

2017 ◽  
Vol 232 (13) ◽  
pp. 2424-2431 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Martínez-Val ◽  
JM Hedo ◽  
E Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Computer Model ◽  
Exit Time ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Escape Route ◽  
Evacuation Time ◽  
Certification Process ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Utilization Patterns

This paper presents the effects of uncommon exit size and location arrangement in the emergency evacuation of transport airplanes. The analysis is carried out by means of an agent-based computer model conceived to simulate the evacuation of narrow-body aircraft as required in the certification process, as well as for design purposes. The simulation model provides full evacuation data of all occupants: escape route followed, distance to exit, time to reach the ground, etc., as well as those of the whole cabin: exit utilization patterns, evacuation histograms, chronolines and total evacuation time. The present research concentrates on the effect of uncommon exit size and location arrangements, such as large longitudinal shifting and/or suppression of some of the exits in the evacuation performance.

Capturing Deviations From Design Intent in Building Simulation Models for Risk Assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki Nikula ◽  
Seppo Sierla ◽  
Bryan O'Halloran ◽  
Tommi Karhela
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Data Model ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Abnormal Behavior ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Design Intent ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Simulation Based

Simulation-based methods are emerging to address the challenges of complex systems risk assessment, and this paper identifies two problems related to the use of such methods. First, the methods cannot identify new hazards if the simulation model builders are expected to foresee the hazards and incorporate the abnormal behavior related to the hazard into the simulation model. Therefore, this paper uses the concept of deviation from design intent to systematically capture abnormal conditions that may lead to component failures, hazards, or both. Second, simulation-based risk assessment methods should explicitly consider what expertise is required from the experts that build and use the simulation models—the transfer of the methods to real engineering practice will be severely hindered if they must be performed by persons that are expert in domain safety as well as advanced computer simulation-based methods. This paper addresses both problems in the context of the functional failure identification and propagation (FFIP) method. One industrially established risk assessment method, hazard and operability study (HAZOP), is harnessed to systematically obtain the deviations from design intent in the application under study. An information system presents a user interface that is understandable to HAZOP professionals, so that their inputs are transparently entered to a data model that captures the deviations. From the data model, instructions for configuring FFIP simulation models are printed in a form that is understandable for FFIP experts. The method is demonstrated for discovering a hazard resulting from system-wide fault propagation in a boiling water reactor case.

Neurosurgical Training With a Novel Cervical Spine Simulator

Neurosurgery ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 73 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S94-S99 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Harrop ◽  
Ali R. Rezai ◽  
Daniel J. Hoh ◽  
George M. Ghobrial ◽  
Ashwini Sharan
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Teaching Strategy ◽  
Surgical Techniques ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Educational Curriculum ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Education Model ◽  
Level Of Training ◽  
Technical Assessment ◽  
Neurosurgical Education

Abstract BACKGROUND: Neurosurgical residents have traditionally been instructed on surgical techniques and procedures through an apprenticeship model. Currently, there has been research and interest in expanding the neurosurgical education model. OBJECTIVE: To establish a posterior cervical decompression educational curriculum with a novel cervical simulation model. METHODS: The Congress of Neurological Surgeons developed a simulation committee to explore and develop simulation-based models. The educational curriculum was developed to have didactic and technical components with the incorporation of simulation models. Through numerous reiterations, a posterior cervical decompression model was developed and a 2-hour education curriculum was established. RESULTS: Individual's level of training varied, with 5 postgraduate year (PGY) 2 participants, 1 PGY-3 participant, 2 PGY-5 participants, and 1 attending, with the majority being international participants (6 of 9, 67%). Didactic scores overall improved (7 of 9, 78%). The technical scores of all participants improved from 11 to 24 (mean, 14.1) to 19 to 25 (mean, 22.4). Overall, in the posterior cervical decompression simulator, there was a significant improvement in the didactic scores (P = .005) and the technical scores (P = .02). CONCLUSION: The posterior cervical decompression simulation model appears to be a valuable tool in educating neurosurgery residents in the aspects of this procedure. The combination of a didactic and technical assessment is a useful teaching strategy in terms of educational development.

A simulation model for emergency evacuation time of a library facility using EVACNET4

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ashraf Tashrifullahi ◽  
Mohammad A. Hassanain
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Evacuation Time

scholarly journals Disaster Day: A Simulation-Based Disaster Medicine Curriculum for Novice Learners

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 238212052110207
Author(s):  
Brad D Gable ◽  
Asit Misra ◽  
Devin M Doos ◽  
Patrick G Hughes ◽  
Lisa M Clayton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Mass Casualty ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
Incident Command ◽  
Management Concepts ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Second Year

Background: Mass casualty and multi-victim incidents have increased in recent years due to a number of factors including natural disasters and terrorism. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) recommends that medical students be trained in disaster preparedness and response. However, a majority of United States medical students are not provided such education. Objective: The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a 1 day, immersive, simulation-based Disaster Day curriculum. Settings and Design: Learners were first and second year medical students from a single institution. Materials and Methods: Our education provided learners with information on disaster management, allowed for application of this knowledge with hands-on skill stations, and culminated in near full-scale simulation where learners could evaluate the knowledge and skills they had acquired. Statistical analysis used: To study the effectiveness of our Disaster Day curriculum, we conducted a single-group pretest-posttest and paired analysis of self-reported confidence data. Results: A total of 40 first and second year medical students participated in Disaster Day as learners. Learners strongly agreed that this course provided new information or provided clarity on previous training, and they intended to use what they learned, 97.6% and 88.4%, respectively. Conclusions: Medical students’ self-reported confidence of key disaster management concepts including victim triage, tourniquet application, and incident command improved after a simulation-based disaster curriculum. This Disaster Day curriculum provides students the ability to apply concepts learned in the classroom and better understand the real-life difficulties experienced in a resource limited environment.

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