scholarly journals Determinação da curva de intensidade-duração-frequência do município de Cruzeiro do Sul – Acre

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e30
Author(s):  
Nayara Dos Santos Albrigo ◽  
Maylla Tawanda dos Santos Pereira ◽  
Nelma Tavares Dias Soares ◽  
Gleibson De Souza Andrade ◽  
Vinicius Alexandre Sikora de Souza ◽  
...  

Information on extreme rainfall events associated with predictability and probabilities, especially in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, are essential for the development of engineering projects aimed at sanitation, drainage and waterproofing of surfaces, which allow to offer more suitable conditions for dimensioning hydraulic and hydrological works and services. However, much of the North Region of the country does not have this information available or updated. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop the IDF equation for the municipality of Cruzeiro do Sul - AC. A 14-year historical series was used, distributed between 1993 and 2011, such data were analyzed by the Gumbel distribution, the same being related, by means of the daily rain breakdown, for return periods comprising 2 to 100 years and rainfall durations of 5 minutes to 24 hours. In the analysis for the construction of the curve, it was observed that the years 1995 and 2002 corresponded to the years with the highest precipitated height indexes, being 111 mm and 103 mm, respectively, however these events had an estimated return time between 3 and 8 years, which does not denote anomalous events. The IDF curve constructed in the study showed good adherence to the observed data, which proves its use in the region.

Author(s):  
Vinicius Alexandre Sikora de Souza ◽  
Marcos Leando Alves Nunes ◽  
Sandra Ferronatto Francener ◽  
Ana Lúcia Denardin da Rosa

<p><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: PT-BR; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Este estudo objetivou estimar a função Intensidade-Duração-Frequência (IDF) de eventos pluviométricos extremos a partir dos dados de precipitação das estações pluviométricas instaladas no estado de Rondônia, de modo que posteriormente tais informações possam ser utilizadas no dimensionamento de obras hidráulicas. Utilizou-se 41 estações pluviométricas com séries históricas acima de 10 anos, disponibilizadas pela Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA). Essas séries passaram inicialmente pelo teste de aderência Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), a fim de verificar o ajuste das mesmas as </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">distribuições: Normal, Log-Normal, Exponencial, Gama, Gumbel, Weibull e Logística</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">. O trabalho denotou que o teste de aderência </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: PT-BR; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Kolmogorov-Smirnov de forma geral forneceu uma expressiva aceitação na maioria das distribuições estatística testadas.</span></p><p> </p><p align="center"><strong><em>Analysis of fitness for extreme rainfall events in western amazon in static models: state Rondônia</em></strong></p><p> </p><p><strong>ABSTRACT: </strong>This study aimed to estimate the Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) function extreme rainfall events from the data of precipitation of rainfall stations located in the State of Rondônia, so that such information can be later used in hydraulic structures. We used 41 rainfall stations with historical series over 10 years, provided by the National Water Agency (ANA). These series originally started by adherence Kolmogorov -Smirnov (KS) in order to check the fit of the same distributions: Normal, Log- Normal, Exponential, Gamma, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistics. Work denoted that the Kolmogorov - Smirnov test of adherence generally provided a significant acceptance in most of the tested statistical distributions.<strong></strong></p><p><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-ansi-language: PT-BR; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"><br /></span></p>


Irriga ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-115
Author(s):  
LORENA JÚLIO GONÇALVES ◽  
CRISTIANO TAGLIAFERRE ◽  
MANOEL NELSON DE CASTRO FILHO ◽  
RODRIGO LACERDA BRITO NETO ◽  
BISMARC LOPES DA SILVA ◽  
...  

DETERMINAÇÃO DA EQUAÇÃO INTENSIDADE-DURAÇÃO-FREQUÊNCIA PARA ALGUMAS LOCALIDADES DO ESTADO DA BAHIA     LORENA JÚLIO GONÇALVES1; CRISTIANO TAGLIAFERRE2; MANOEL NELSON DE CASTRO FILHO3; RODRIGO LACERDA BRITO NETO4; BISMARC LOPES DA SILVA5 E FELIZARDO ADENILSON ROCHA6   1 Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola e Solos da Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB); Estrada do Bem Querer, Km 04; Caixa Postal 95; CEP 45031-900, Vitória da Conquista – BA, [email protected]; 2 Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola e Solos da Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB); Estrada do Bem Querer, Km 04; Caixa Postal 95; CEP 45031-900, Vitória da Conquista – BA, [email protected]; 3 Departamento de Agronomia da Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV); Avenida Peter Henry Rolfs, s/n, Campus Universitário; CEP 36570-900; Viçosa – MG; [email protected]; 4 Mestre em Ciências Florestais pela Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB); Rua Madureira, n° 160, Bairro Primavera; CEP 45700-000, Itapetinga – B; [email protected]; 5 Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola e Solos da Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB); Estrada do Bem Querer, Km 04; Caixa Postal 95; CEP 45031-900, Vitória da Conquista – BA, [email protected]; 6 Instituto Federal da Bahia/ Campus Avançado de Vitória da Conquista; Avenida Sérgio Vieira de Mello, n° 3150, Bairro Zabelê; CEP 45075-265, Vitória da Conquista – BA, [email protected].     1 ABSTRACT   The objective of this study was to fit intensity-duration-frequency equations (IDF) for sites in Bahia state, Brazil. Maximum annual rainfall lasting 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 60, 360 and 1440 minutes were fitted to Gumbel distribution. Equation parameters were estimated using Gauss Newton method for non-linear regressions. According to Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, all equations were fitted to Gumbel distribution. From fitted distributions, maximum annual rainfall intensity was calculated for 2, 10, 20, 50 and 100years return periods, which were used to define the equation for intense rainfall events. Fitting parameters of the equations varied across rain gage stations, especially for the parameter K, suggesting the need for determining these equations for each site, thereby providing information when designing agricultural and hydraulic projects.   Keywords: Hydrology. Extreme Rainfall. Distribution of Gumbel.     GONÇALVES, L. J.; TAGLIAFERRE, C.; CASTRO FILHO, M. N; BRITO NETO, R. L.; SILVA, B. L; ROCHA, F. A. DETERMINATION OF INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY EQUATIONS FOR SITES IN BAHIA STATE     2 RESUMO   O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar equações de intensidade-duração-frequência (IDF), com base em chuvas extremas para algumas localidades do Estado da Bahia. As precipitações máximas anuais com duração de 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 60, 360 e 1440 minutos foram ajustadas à distribuição de Gumbel. Os parâmetros da equação foram estimados pelo método de regressão não linear de Gauss Newton. De acordo com o teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov houve ajuste de todas as equações à distribuição de Gumbel. Através das distribuições ajustadas, calcularam-se os valores de intensidade máxima anual de precipitação para períodos de retorno de 2, 10, 20, 50 e 100 anos, que serviram de base para definir a equação de chuvas intensas. Os valores dos parâmetros ajustados das equações variaram entre as estações, notadamente o parâmetro K, evidenciando a necessidade da determinação dessas equações para cada localidade para dimensionamento de projetos agrícolas e de obras hidráulicas.   Palavras-chave: Hidrologia. Chuvas Intensas. Distribuição de Gumbel.


2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise M. Verhoeven ◽  
Brad R. Murray ◽  
Chris R. Dickman ◽  
Glenda M. Wardle ◽  
Aaron C. Greenville

Assessing wildfire regimes and their environmental drivers is critical for effective land management and conservation. We used Landsat imagery to describe the wildfire regime of the north-eastern Simpson Desert (Australia) between 1972 and 2014, and to quantify the relationship between wildfire extent and rainfall. Wildfires occurred in 15 of the 42 years, but only 27% of the study region experienced multiple wildfires. A wildfire in 1975 burned 43% of the region and is the largest on record for the area. More recently, a large wildfire in 2011 reburned areas that had not burned since 1975 (47% of the 2011 wildfire), as well as new areas that had no record of wildfires (25% of the 2011 wildfire). The mean minimum wildfire return interval was 27 years, comparable with other spinifex-dominated grasslands, and the mean time since last wildfire was 21 years. Spinifex-dominated vegetation burned most frequently and over the largest area. Extreme annual rainfall events (&gt; 93rd percentile) effectively predicted large wildfires occurring 2 years after those events. Extreme rainfall is predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency across central Australia, which could alter wildfire regimes and have unpredictable and far-reaching effects on ecosystems in the region’s arid landscapes.


Author(s):  
Douglas Schaefer

Variations in temperature and precipitation are both components of climate variability. Based on coral growth rates measured near Puerto Rico, the Caribbean was 2–3ºC cooler during the “Little Ice Age” during the seventeenth century (Winter et al. 2000). At the millennial scale, temperature variations in tropical regions have been inferred to have substantial biological effects (such as speciation and extinction), but not at the multidecadal timescales considered here. My focus is on precipitation variability in particular, because climate models examining effects of increased greenhouse gases suggest greater changes in precipitation than in temperature patterns in tropical regions. Some correspondence between both the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and average temperatures and total annual precipitation have been reported for the LTER site at Luquillo (Greenland 1999; Greenland and Kittel 2002), but those studies did not refer to extreme events. Based on climate records for Puerto Rico since 1914, Malmgren et al. (1997) found small increases in air temperature during El Niño years and somewhat greater total rainfall during the positive phase of the NAO. Similar to ENSO, the NAO index is characterized by differences in sea-level atmospheric pressure, in this case based on measurements in Iceland and Portugal (Walker and Bliss 1932). Its effects on climate have largely been described in terms of temperature and precipitation anomalies in countries bordering the North Atlantic (e.g., Hurrell 1995). Puerto Rico is in the North Atlantic hurricane zone, and hurricanes clearly play a major role in precipitation variability. The association between extreme rainfall events and hurricanes is discussed in detail in this chapter. I examine the degree to which extreme rainfall events are associated with hurricanes and other tropical storms. I discuss whether the occurrence of these extreme events has changed through time in Puerto Rico or can be linked to the recurrent patterns of the ENSO or the NAO. I examine the 25-year daily precipitation record for the Luquillo LTER site, the 90-year monthly record from the nearest site to Luquillo with such a long record, Fajardo, and those of the two other Puerto Rico stations with the longest daily precipitation records, Manati and Mayaguez (figure 8.1).


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 2663-2680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Sierks ◽  
Julie Kalansky ◽  
Forest Cannon ◽  
F. M. Ralph

AbstractThe North American monsoon (NAM) is the main driver of summertime climate variability in the U.S. Southwest. Previous studies of the NAM have primarily focused on the Tier I region of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME), spanning central-western Mexico, southern Arizona, and New Mexico. This study, however, presents a climatological characterization of summertime precipitation, defined as July–September (JAS), in the Lake Mead watershed, located in the NAME Tier II region. Spatiotemporal variability of JAS rainfall is examined from 1981 to 2016 using gridded precipitation data and the meteorological mechanisms that account for this variability are investigated using reanalyses. The importance of the number of wet days (24-h rainfall ≥1 mm) and extreme rainfall events (95th percentile of wet days) to the total JAS precipitation is examined and shows extreme events playing a larger role in the west and central basin. An investigation into the dynamical drivers of extreme rainfall events indicates that anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (RWB) in the midlatitude westerlies over the U.S. West Coast is associated with 89% of precipitation events >10 mm (98th percentile of wet days) over the Lake Mead basin. This is in contrast to the NAME Tier I region where easterly upper-level disturbances such as inverted troughs are the dominant driver of extreme precipitation. Due to the synoptic nature of RWB events, corresponding impacts and hazards extend beyond the Lake Mead watershed are relevant for the greater U.S. Southwest.


Author(s):  
R. Basso ◽  
D. Allasia ◽  
R. Tassi ◽  
D. M. Bayer

Abstract. The regional analysis of extreme hydrological events is connected with the availability of a dense network of rainfall data that is absent or inaccessible in Brazil, especially for sub-daily information. In engineering, extreme events rainfall information is represented by intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships which are the most commonly used tools in water resources engineering for planning and design. Even if the sub-daily information that is included in the relationships is not available, the extreme rainfall information rest in the fundamentals of the IDF. This paper analyzes spatial distribution and track changes in sub-daily precipitation over Northeastern (NE) Brazil. Precipitation was estimated from IDF relationships information in Brazil based in rainfall measured from 1920's to 1950's (but still used in engineering projects) and information from the last half of the 20th century obtained from several IDFs gathered from municipalities' manuals, local symposia and books in many cases not easily obtainable. Results showed an intensification of extreme events in recent years, especially in shorter duration rainfall (less than 12 h). Hourly rainfall is bigger in almost all the Brazilian region, but especially in littoral and Northern portion, however, 12 and 24 h rainfall exhibit increases in the North, but, lower values in the Southern half of the region in concordance with flood changes reported by Milly et al. (2005). Analyzing the ratio between 1 and 24 h rainfall is possible to confirm its increase in all the region, with up to 35% in some areas. These results were able to show insight of sub-daily extreme events changes during 20th century in NE Brazil were previous reports were not found. The results also alerts for the necessity of engineering projects review, as outdated information is still being used for design purposes.


Author(s):  
Emanuele B. Manke ◽  
Claudia F. A. Teixeira-Gandra ◽  
Rita de C. F. Damé ◽  
André B. Nunes ◽  
Maria C. C. Chagas Neta ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Although several studies have evaluated the intensity-duration-frequency relationships of extreme rainfall events, these relationships under different seasonal conditions remain relatively unknown. Thus, this study aimed to determine whether the intensity-duration-frequency relationships obtained seasonally from the rainfall records in the winter and summer represent the maximum rainfall events for the city of Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. Pluviographic data from 1982 to 2015 were used to create two seasonal series: one for the summer from December 21 to March 20 and the other for the winter from June 21 to September 22. These seasonal relationships were compared with the annual pluviographic data. The intensity, duration, and frequency relationships obtained from the summer rain data adequately represented the maximum rainfall in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The maximum intensity values of rainfall obtained from the relationship of intensity, duration, and frequency for the winter did not adequately encapsulate the occurrence of rain with greater intensities.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Óscar E. Coronado-Hernández ◽  
Ernesto Merlano-Sabalza ◽  
Zaid Díaz-Vergara ◽  
Jairo R. Coronado-Hernández

Frequency analysis of extreme events is used to estimate the maximum rainfall associated with different return periods and is used in planning hydraulic structures. When carrying out this type of analysis in engineering projects, the hydrological distributions that best fit the trend of maximum 24 h rainfall data are unknown. This study collected maximum 24 h rainfall records from 362 stations distributed throughout Colombia, with the goal of guiding hydraulic planners by suggesting the probability distributions they should use before beginning their analysis. The generalized extreme value (GEV) probability distribution, using the weighted moments method, presented the best fits of frequency analysis of maximum daily precipitation for various return periods for selected rainfall stations in Colombia.


Author(s):  
Andrew Paul Barnes ◽  
Nick McCullen ◽  
Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen

Abstract This study presents the first attempt to identify extreme rainfall events based on surrounding sea-level pressure anomalies, using neural network-based classification. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to identify the spatial importance of sea-level pressure anomalies. Three classification models were generated: the first classifies the patterns between extreme and regular rainfall events in the North West of England, the second classifies the patterns between extreme and regular rainfall events in the South East of England, and the third classifies between the patterns of extreme events in the North West and South East of England. All classifiers obtain accuracies between 60 and 65%, with precision and recall metrics showing that extreme events are easier to identify than regular events. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the spatial importance of the patterns across the North Atlantic, highlighting that for all three classifiers the local anomaly sea-level pressure patterns around the British Isles are key to determining the difference between extreme and regular rainfall events. In contrast, the pattern across the mid and western North Atlantic shows no contribution to the overall classifications.


Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bezak ◽  
Mikoš

High-frequency rainfall data is needed in different practical hydrologic applications, such as the construction of the intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF). This paper presents an investigation of trends (station-wise and regional) for several rainfall durations that were constructed based on the 5 min rainfall data. Moreover, changes in IDF results for two 22-year sub-samples were also analyzed. Additionally, changes in extreme events clustering at the regional scale were also analyzed. Ten rainfall stations (44 years of data 1975–2018) located in Slovenia (central EU, approx. 20,000 km2) were used in this study. Results indicate that no clear pattern in the detected trends can be found based on the analyzed stations. However, all the statistically significant trends at the significance level of 0.05 for the 5 min rainfall data were negative. Moreover, regional trends for this duration were also statistically significant. The changes in the design rainfall events between two equal sub-samples (1975–1996, 1997–2018) were between −30% and 60%. The investigation of changes in extreme rainfall event clustering indicated that extreme 5, 30, and 60 min events could more frequently occur a few days earlier in spring or summer compared to the past period. On the other hand, longer duration events (i.e., 360 and 720 min) tend to more frequently occur a few days later in autumn compared to the past. In most cases, changes are not statistically significant.


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