Forecasting the solar energy development in the region

2020 ◽  
pp. 16-25
Author(s):  
B.V. Korneychuk
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Energy Capacity ◽  
Logistic Curve ◽  
Power Capacity ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Exponential Trend

The problem of forecasting the dynamics of the development of solar energy in the region in the context of the global trend of energy transition is considered. The urgency of the problem is due to the fact that forecasts of the development of solar energy are usually characterized by relatively large errors. To solve this problem, the author proposed a multi-trend approach to constructing a regional function for the growth of solar power capacity. The method is based on the description of the dynamics of power growth in the form of the average value of logistic, linear and exponential trends. The weighting factors are equal to values that are inversely proportional to the errors of the corresponding trends. Based on this method, forecasts of solar energy capacity were calculated for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America for the period 2017–2019. The validity of the method is confirmed by the fact that these forecasts are characterized by a relatively low deviation from the actual data. The author has developed a forecast for these regions for the period 2020-2023. It is shown that the reason for the low reliability of most forecasts is the desire to use the logistic curve as a universal analysis tool. This approach absolutes the logistics trend and does not take into account the specifics of the region. However, for some regions, a linear or exponential trend can serve as the dominant growth trend in solar energy capacity. In particular, the reason for the systematic underestimation of forecasts for China was the ignorance of the exponential component of the growth of solar energy capacity.

scholarly journals Forecasting the national electric vehicle markets development

2021 ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Boris Korneychuk
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
National Market ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Proposed Modification ◽  
Vehicle Market

The problem of forecasting the development of national electric vehicle markets in the context of the global trend of energy transition is considered. The urgency of the problem is due to the fact that the development of the electric vehicle market plays an important role in the process of replacing traditional energy sources with renewable sources. At the same time, forecasts for the development of national electric vehicle markets are often characterized by significant errors, which necessitates the development of reliable forecasting methods that take into account regional characteristics. To solve this problem, a multi-trend approach to building a mixed trend for the volume of electric vehicles and their share in the car market is proposed, which is based on modeling the development trend of the national market in the form of a linear combination of logistic, linear and exponential trends with weight coefficients depending on the degree of deviation trends from actual data. Based on the proposed modification of this method, forecasts of the development of the electric vehicle market for ten countries for the period 2018–2019 were made, which showed high reliability. A forecast for the period 2020–2024 has also been developed. It is shown that the reason for forecast errors is often the desire to use the logistic curve as a universal analysis tool without taking into account the peculiarities of the dynamics of the development of national electric vehicle markets.

scholarly journals Cogeneration Supporting the Energy Transition in the Italian Ceramic Tile Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 4006
Author(s):  
Lisa Branchini ◽  
Maria Chiara Bignozzi ◽  
Benedetta Ferrari ◽  
Barbara Mazzanti ◽  
Saverio Ottaviano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ceramic Tile ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Industrial Process ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Production Cycle ◽  
Combustion Engines ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ceramic Tile Production

Ceramic tile production is an industrial process where energy efficiency management is crucial, given the high amount of energy (electrical and thermal) required by the production cycle. This study presents the preliminary results of a research project aimed at defining the benefits of using combined heat and power (CHP) systems in the ceramic sector. Data collected from ten CHP installations allowed us to outline the average characteristics of prime movers, and to quantify the contribution of CHP thermal energy supporting the dryer process. The electric size of the installed CHP units resulted in being between 3.4 MW and 4.9 MW, with an average value of 4 MW. Data revealed that when the goal is to maximize the generation of electricity for self-consumption, internal combustion engines are the preferred choice due to higher conversion efficiency. In contrast, gas turbines allowed us to minimize the consumption of natural gas input to the spray dryer. Indeed, the fraction of the dryer thermal demand (between 600–950 kcal/kgH2O), covered by CHP discharged heat, is strictly dependent on the type of prime mover installed: lower values, in the range of 30–45%, are characteristic of combustion engines, whereas the use of gas turbines can contribute up to 77% of the process’s total consumption.

scholarly journals Legitimating power: Solar energy rollout, sustainability metrics and transition politics

2021 ◽  
pp. 251484862110249
Author(s):  
Siddharth Sareen
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Political Ecology ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Sustainability Metrics ◽  
Energy Transitions

Increasing recognition of the irrefutable urgency to address the global climate challenge is driving mitigation efforts to decarbonise. Countries are setting targets, technological innovation is making renewable energy sources competitive and fossil fuel actors are leveraging their incumbent privilege and political reach to modulate energy transitions. As techno-economic competitiveness is rapidly reconfigured in favour of sources such as solar energy, governance puzzles dominate the research frontier. Who makes key decisions about decarbonisation based on what metrics, and how are consequent benefits and burdens allocated? This article takes its point of departure in ambitious sustainability metrics for solar rollout that Portugal embraced in the late 2010s. This southwestern European country leads on hydro and wind power, and recently emerged from austerity politics after the 2008–2015 recession. Despite Europe’s best solar irradiation, its big solar push only kicked off in late 2018. In explaining how this arose and unfolded until mid-2020 and why, the article investigates what key issues ambitious rapid decarbonisation plans must address to enhance social equity. It combines attention to accountability and legitimacy to offer an analytical framework geared at generating actionable knowledge to advance an accountable energy transition. Drawing on empirical study of the contingencies that determine the implementation of sustainability metrics, the article traces how discrete acts legitimate specific trajectories of territorialisation by solar photovoltaics through discursive, bureaucratic, technocratic and financial practices. Combining empirics and perspectives from political ecology and energy geographies, it probes the politics of just energy transitions to more low-carbon and equitable societal futures.

BUILDINGS AS ACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR GRID STABILITY

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-34
Author(s):  
Friedrich Sick ◽  
Ralph Füger
Keyword(s):  
Capital Investment ◽  
Heat Storage ◽  
Reactive Power ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Heat Pumps ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Active Components ◽  
Massive Structure

A successful energy transition depends on storage options in order to ensure power supply stability under a fluctuating generation of a growing share of renewable energies (RE). Battery storage is expensive and raw material intensive and therefore not suitable as a sole solution. Surplus electricity may easily be converted to heat, which can be stored inexpensively for a short term. With such simple Power-to-Heat or P2H solutions, lack of electric power cannot be offset by conventional heat storage. However, if a building or an urban quarter is heated by means of cogeneration, so-called Combined Heat and Power (CHP), or heat pumps (HP), the operation can be adjusted in such a way, that the building itself, i.e. its massive structure, serves as heat storage. Electricity generation and consumption is adjusted to the requirements of the grid (reactive power control). For the supply of a Berlin quarter, built in the 1950s and equipped with a district heating network and a CHP plant, the feasibility of the concept could be proved using dynamic building simulation as the analysis tool. Sixteen percent of the total heating consumption may useably be stored and extracted from the building structure. In absolute numbers: 73 MWh/a heat can be buffered corresponding to 34 MWh/a balancing electricity. For each square meter of living area, 3.7 kWh electrical balancing energy can be buffered in the building's thermal storage capacity. Nothing else is required than a re-programming of heating and possibly cooling controls. No capital investment is needed. Well insulated and more massive structures could show a proportion of 27% of such shifted heat.

Der volkswirtschaftliche Verlust durch Stromausfälle: Eine empirische Analyse für Haushalte, Unternehmen und den öffentlichen Sektor

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 308-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Schmidthaler ◽  
Johannes Reichl ◽  
Friedrich Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Time Of Day ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Power Outages ◽  
Power Outage ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Precise Knowledge ◽  
Future Challenges

AbstractThis work discusses different methodological approaches for the economic evaluation of electricity supply security, quantifies the expected economic costs of power outages in Austria, and provides an interpretation of the results regarding the future challenges of sustaining the currently high levels of electricity supply security. By applying a macroeconomic simulation tool, which assesses the damages of power outages which can be defined for the period between one to 48 hours taking into account the day of the week and time of day, the value of supply security can be estimated precisely with high spatial and sectoral resolution. This is demonstrated exemplarily for a power outage scenario which is similar in scope, timing and duration to a historic even in Italy in 2003 affecting over 50 million people. Decision-makers in politics and businesses can use the analysis tool APOSTEL to conduct precise evaluations of the value of supply security, for cost-benefit analyses of supply security enhancing investments, of regulatory descions which affect the level of supply securty and for many more applications with regards to energy policy. Precise knowledge of the social and economic value of a secure supply of electricity becomes even more crucial considering that the average value of lost load for a one-hour power cut in Austria on a weekday morning in the summer is calculated at 17.1 € per kWh of electricity not supplied.

scholarly journals “Solar Energy. Now”. Anticipating and Fostering the Energy Transition at the Sun New Energy Conference

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 190026-190026
Author(s):  
Mario Pagliaro ◽  
Mario Pagliaro ◽  
Rosaria Ciriminna ◽  
Francesco Meneguzzo ◽  
Vittorio Loddo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
The Sun ◽  
New Energy

scholarly journals Study of Indonesia’s Solar Energy Implementation Using Identification of Potency, Policies, and Cost-Benefit Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-139
Author(s):  
Mochammad Donny Anggoro ◽  
Diana Siregar ◽  
Regina Ninggar ◽  
Satriyo Wicaksono ◽  
Soo Hee Lee
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Levelized Cost Of Electricity ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Solar Radiation Intensity

The solar PV systems are semiconductor devices that precisely convert sunlight into electricity, through the transfer of electrons. They provide several advantages, such as high modularity, zero noise, and adequate availability of solar resources in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to determine the potency, policy perspective, and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of the solar energy implementation for electricity generation. A statistical analysis was used for measuring potency, as well as reviewing opportunistic policies and barriers. A review of some CBA-based journals was also carried out, to determine that the development of solar power electricity had more benefit than fossil fuels and LCOE (Levelized Cost Of Electricity). The results of the 10-days average value calculation in 2019 were 388-563 W/m2, with the maximum values at 1137-1604 W/m2. Meanwhile the analysis of the maximum hourly averages for Western, Central, and Eastern Indonesia were 570-719, 634-758, and 559-627 W/m2 at 11.00-12.00 WIB, 11.00-13.00 WITA, and 12.00-13.00 WIT, respectively. The potency of solar radiation intensity in Indonesia was averagely 150-750 W/m2, as the highest values were found in East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and Merauke.

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