scholarly journals Predictive validity of Stable-2007 in incarcerated samples

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Looman ◽  
Joshua Goldstein ◽  
Brian R. Abbott ◽  
Jeff Abracen
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Institutional Setting ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Monitoring Change

Some are unclear whether risk assessment instruments, specifically dynamic risk instruments, have demonstrated utility in the risk estimation, treatment recommendations, and monitoring change over time in men at risk for or under sentence of Indeterminate Detention (ID) for sexual offenses. We compare two datasets, the first consisting of individuals representing a routine sample of persons convicted of a sexual offense and the second of men representative of a high risk/needs sample. These two distinct samples (n = 442, mean Static-99R score = 2.4; n = 168, mean Static-99R score 4.5) were then also scored on the Stable-2007. For both groups this scoring occurred in an institutional setting. The Stable-2007 predicted sexual recidivism in Sample 1 independently and in conjunction with the Static-99R. In the high-risk sample the results were the same. In both samples a compound outcome variable (Sexual + Violent reoffense) was also calculated with the Stable-2007 predicting the compound outcome variable in Sample 1 but not Sample 2. This is interesting in that it suggests that the Stable-2007 assesses constructs specific to sexual re-offense in higher risk offenders and not general traits of violence or common anti-social behaviour. Limitations and directions for further research are discussed.

scholarly journals An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 107906321988457
Author(s):  
I Ting Tsao ◽  
Chi Meng Chu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist Revised

The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments’ total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.

scholarly journals 4494 Predictors of Reintubation After Cardiac Surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (s1) ◽  
pp. 50-50
Author(s):  
Robert Edward Freundlich ◽  
Gen Li ◽  
Jonathan P Wanderer ◽  
Frederic T Billings ◽  
Henry Domenico ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Query Language ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Iterative Model ◽  
Strong Candidate

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: We modeled risk of reintubation within 48 hours of cardiac surgery using variables available in the electronic health record (EHR). This model will guide recruitment for a prospective, pragmatic clinical trial entirely embedded within the EHR among those at high risk of reintubation. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: All adult patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit following cardiac surgery involving thoracotomy or sternotomy were eligible for inclusion. Data were obtained from operational and analytical databases integrated into the Epic EHR, as well as institutional and departmental-derived data warehouses, using structured query language. Variables were screened for inclusion in the model based on clinical relevance, availability in the EHR as structured data, and likelihood of timely documentation during routine clinical care, in the hopes of obtaining a maximally-pragmatic model. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: A total of 2325 patients met inclusion criteria between November 2, 2017 and November 2, 2019. Of these patients, 68.4% were male. Median age was 63.0. The primary outcome of reintubation occurred in 112/2325 (4.8%) of patients within 48 hours and 177/2325 (7.6%) at any point in the subsequent hospital encounter. Univariate screening and iterative model development revealed numerous strong candidate predictors (ANOVA plot, figure 1), resulting in a model with acceptable calibration (calibration plot, figure 2), c = 0.666. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Reintubation is common after cardiac surgery. Risk factors are available in the EHR. We are integrating this model into the EHR to support real-time risk estimation and to recruit and randomize high-risk patients into a clinical trial comparing post-extubation high flow nasal cannula with usual care. CONFLICT OF INTEREST DESCRIPTION: REF has received grant funding and consulting fees from Medtronic for research on inpatient monitoring.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (14) ◽  
pp. 1593-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Sexually Violent Person ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

scholarly journals AB0407 CARDIOVASCULAR BURDEN IN SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS: QRISK3 VERSUS FRAMINGHAM FOR RISK ESTIMATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1232.1-1232
Author(s):  
M. Di Battista ◽  
S. Barsotti ◽  
A. Della Rossa ◽  
M. Mosca
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Systemic Sclerosis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Cross Sectional

Background:Cardiovascular (CV) diseases, namely myocardial infarction and stroke, are not among the most known and frequent complications of systemic sclerosis (SSc), but there is growing evidence that SSc patients have a higher prevalence of CV diseases than the general population [1].Objectives:To compare two algorithms for CV risk estimation in a cohort of patients with SSc, finding any correlation with clinical characteristics of the disease.Methods:SSc patients without previous myocardial infarction or stroke were enrolled. Traditional CV risk factors, SSc-specific characteristics and ongoing therapies were assessed. Framingham and QRISK3 algorithms were then used to estimate the risk of develop a CV disease over the next 10 years.Results:Fifty-six SSc patients were enrolled. Framingham reported a median risk score of 9.6% (IQR 8.5), classifying 24 (42.9%) subjects at high risk, with a two-fold increase of the mean relative risk in comparison to general population. QRISK3 showed a median risk score of 15.8% (IQR 19.4), with 36 (64.3%) patients considered at high-risk. Both algorithms revealed a significant role of some traditional risk factors and a noteworthy potential protective role of endothelin receptor antagonists (p=0.003). QRISK3 was also significantly influenced by some SSc-specific characteristics, as limited cutaneous subset (p=0.01), interstitial lung disease (p=0.04) and non-ischemic heart involvement (p=0.03), with the first two that maintain statistically significance in the multivariate analysis (p=0.02 for both).Conclusion:QRISK3 classifies more SSc patients at high-risk to develop CV diseases than Framingham, and it seems to be influenced by some SSc-specific characteristics. If its predictive accuracy were prospectively verified, the use of QRISK3 as a tool in the early detection of SSc patients at high CV risk should be recommended.References:[1]Ngian GS, Sahhar J, Proudman SM, Stevens W, Wicks IP, Van Doornum S. Prevalence of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular risk factors in a national cross-sectional cohort study of systemic sclerosis. Ann Rheum Dis. 2012;71:1980-3.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Rates of violence in patients classified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments

2014 ◽  
Vol 204 (3) ◽  
pp. 180-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay P. Singh ◽  
Seena Fazel ◽  
Ralitza Gueorguieva ◽  
Alec Buchanan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Individual Liberty ◽  
Current Evidence Base ◽  
Study Heterogeneity

BackgroundRates of violence in persons identified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments (SRAIs) are uncertain and frequently unreported by validation studies.AimsTo analyse the variation in rates of violence in individuals identified as high risk by SRAIs.MethodA systematic search of databases (1995–2011) was conducted for studies on nine widely used assessment tools. Where violence rates in high-risk groups were not published, these were requested from study authors. Rate information was extracted, and binomial logistic regression was used to study heterogeneity.ResultsInformation was collected on 13 045 participants in 57 samples from 47 independent studies. Annualised rates of violence in individuals classified as high risk varied both across and within instruments. Rates were elevated when population rates of violence were higher, when a structured professional judgement instrument was used and when there was a lower proportion of men in a study.ConclusionsAfter controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation. In the absence of information on local base rates, assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base. This underscores the need for caution when such risk estimates are used to influence decisions related to individual liberty and public safety.

scholarly journals A risk scoring system for seafood supply chain breaches and examination of freshwater fish imported to Australia

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Williams ◽  
Marta Hernandez-Jover ◽  
Thomas Williams ◽  
Shokoofeh Shamsi
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Safety Standards ◽  
The Third ◽  
Risk Scoring ◽  
Legislative Changes

Abstract Legislative changes have altered the way imported edible seafood is inspected in Australia. Greater onus of responsibility has been placed on exporting countries to provide documentary evidence of adherence to internally recognized food safety standards. According to global trade agreements, any additional safety tests applied to freshwater fish imported into Australia must be justified. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring method to provide justification for identifying countries as ‘Freshwater fish high risk’ and to examine the seafood they export to Australia for seafood supply chain breaches. Scoring was conducted using six predictor variables, identified in the literature as important contributors to seafood supply chain breaches, to achieve the outcome variable, Country considered ‘Freshwater fish high risk’. Sixty-seven fish fillets (9.55 kg) of the same species were examined from the third highest scoring country (Country 20) and 562 (5.6 kg) whole fish from the sixth highest scoring country (Country 22). Country 20 had supply chain breaches of 28 macroscopic yellow cysts in one fillet. Two hundred and thirteen parasites and other supply chain breaches were identified in fish from Country 22, including retained liver (91 per cent), visible mud (11 per cent), a variety of debris (16 per cent) and, depending on the commodity code, these fish were imported to Australia under full intestine (90 per cent), retained gills (89 per cent), and partial intestine (9 per cent). Three serious physical hazards were recovered from the edible portion of three ‘consumer-ready’ fish and snails of Genus Lymnaea and Indoplanorbis were recovered from gill mud also from ‘consumer-ready’ fish. The study showed variable results from the scoring system and vast differences in seafood supply chain breaches between the third and sixth highest scoring countries.

scholarly journals Evaluating Selection for Sexually Violent Predator Commitment: A Comparison of Those Committed, Not Committed, and Nearly Committed

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Perillo ◽  
Cynthia Calkins ◽  
Elizabeth Jeglic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Scores ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent Predator ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Empirically Supported ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Selection For

We examined state-wide data of persons evaluated for Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) commitment and compared risk-relevant data of three groups: those committed as SVPs ( n = 374), those not recommended for commitment ( n = 2,707), and those nearly committed (recommended for commitment but ultimately not committed; n = 117). Consistent with legal language for SVP commitment, binary and multinomial regression analyses revealed risk scores predicted SVP commitment recommendations in addition to some historical factors (e.g., psychiatric history, never being married, prior sex offenses). For those recommended for commitment, prior sexual offenses predicted ultimate commitment. Those nearly committed had significantly higher sexual recidivism rates than others who were not committed; however, these recidivism rates were still low (11.5%). Findings suggest evaluators’ SVP decisions incorporate risk data and follow empirically supported trends; however, the observed recidivism rates of a subset of those SVP commitment appears to target suggests SVP commitment’s potential for reducing sexual recidivism effectively and efficiently appears to have a low ceiling.

Pornography Use and Sexual Offending: An Examination of Perceptions of Role and Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2110491
Author(s):  
Karen Holt ◽  
James Kissinger ◽  
Corey Spickler ◽  
Vicki Roush
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Central Research ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Sexual Crimes ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
Pornography Use ◽  
Abstinence Only

Despite no definitive relationship between pornography and sexual offenses, there exists an assumption that use plays a role in the commission of sexual crimes and may increase risk of recidivism. This has led to the development of post-release restrictions on adult media for those convicted of a sexual offense. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 101 incarcerated individuals convicted of a sexual offense to explore the central research questions: (1) What are the common themes among individual’s experiences regarding pornography and how do they construct the role of pornography in their offending? (2) How do they frame pornography use post-release and understand pornography use as related to risk of re-offense? A qualitative analysis revealed common themes regarding how individuals constructed pornography use and notions of risk. Strategic and targeted monitoring and supervision of those who perceive their pornography use as consuming and facilitating may be a more effective practice than abstinence-only blanket restrictions.

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