scholarly journals Climate and management interact to explain the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Jasper National Park

Rangifer ◽  
2012 ◽  
pp. 183-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Bradley ◽  
Lalenia Neufeld
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wildlife Management ◽  
National Park ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Jasper National Park ◽  
Human Use

Woodland caribou in the southern portion of Jasper National Park have declined from an estimated 435 in the mid 1970s to a population estimate of 87 in the fall of 2009. We examined the available historical information to determine why caribou have declined. We compared three main hypotheses for caribou decline in JNP: human disturbance, climate change, and wildlife management. We used historical human use statistics, climate data, and animal abundance information to weigh the evidence for these competing hypotheses over two time scales. Caribou decline could not be attributed to changes in climate over the long-term, or an increase in human use (our proxy for disturbance). Caribou decline was attributed to a combination of climate and wildlife management. Recovery of caribou in Jasper National Park will likely be contingent on managing the interaction between the predator/prey dynamic and climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences Basidiome Emergence of Leaf-Cutting Ant Cultivars

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 912
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Bizarria ◽  
Pepijn W. Kooij ◽  
Andre Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nest Architecture ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Symbiotic Mutualism ◽  
Leaf Cutting

Maintaining symbiosis homeostasis is essential for mutualistic partners. Leaf-cutting ants evolved a long-term symbiotic mutualism with fungal cultivars for nourishment while using vertical asexual transmission across generations. Despite the ants’ efforts to suppress fungal sexual reproduction, scattered occurrences of cultivar basidiomes have been reported. Here, we review the literature for basidiome occurrences and associated climate data. We hypothesized that more basidiome events could be expected in scenarios with an increase in temperature and precipitation. Our field observations and climate data analyses indeed suggest that Acromyrmex coronatus colonies are prone to basidiome occurrences in warmer and wetter seasons. Even though our study partly depended on historical records, occurrences have increased, correlating with climate change. A nest architecture with low (or even the lack of) insulation might be the cause of this phenomenon. The nature of basidiome occurrences in the A. coronatus–fungus mutualism can be useful to elucidate how resilient mutualistic symbioses are in light of climate change scenarios.

Predator–prey interactions and climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 199-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Bretagnolle ◽  
Julien Terraube
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Generalist Predators ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
Available Information

Climate change is likely to impact all trophic levels, although the response of communities and ecosystems to it has only recently received considerable attention. Further, it is expected to affect the magnitude of species interactions themselves. In this chapter, we summarize why and how climate change could affect predator–prey interactions, then review the literature about its impact on predator–prey relationships in birds, and provide prospects for future studies. Expected effects on prey or predators may include changes in the following: distribution, phenology, population density, behaviour, morphology, or physiology. We review the currently available information concerning particular key topics: top-down versus bottom-up control, specialist versus generalist predators, functional versus numerical responses, trophic cascades and regime shifts, and lastly adaptation and selection. Finally, we focus our review on two well-studied bird examples: seabirds and raptors. Key future topics include long-term studies, modelling and experimental studies, evolutionary questions, and conservation issues.

Long-term aspen dynamics, trophic cascades, and climate in northern Yellowstone National Park

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 548-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L. Beschta ◽  
Luke E. Painter ◽  
Taal Levi ◽  
William J. Ripple
Keyword(s):  
Populus Tremuloides ◽  
Cervus Elaphus ◽  
Yellowstone National Park ◽  
National Park ◽  
Average Density ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Quaking Aspen ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Predator Prey

We report long-term patterns of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) recruitment for five ungulate exclosures in the northern ungulate winter range of Yellowstone National Park. Aspen recruitment was low (<3 aspen·ha−1·year−1) in the mid-1900s prior to exclosure construction due to herbivory by Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus Linnaeus, 1758) but increased more than 60-fold within 25 years after exclosure construction despite a drying climatic trend since 1940. Results support the hypothesis that long-term aspen decline in Yellowstone’s northern range during the latter half of the 20th century was caused by high levels of ungulate herbivory and not a drying climate. Gray wolves (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) were reintroduced during 1995–1996. For the period 1995–2012, we summarized annual predator–prey ratios, ungulate biomass, and drought severity. The average density of young aspen increased from 4350 aspen·ha−1 in 1997–1998 to 8960 aspen·ha−1 in 2012; during the same time period, those >1 m in height increased over 30-fold (from 105 to 3194 aspen·ha−1). Increased heights of young aspen occurred primarily from 2007 to 2012, a period with relatively high predator–prey ratios, declining elk numbers, and decreasing browsing rates. Consistent with a re-established trophic cascade, aspen stands in Yellowstone’s northern range have increasingly begun to recover.

scholarly journals The rate of ecological acclimation is the dominant uncertainty in long-term projections of a key ecosystem service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Felton ◽  
Robert K. Shriver ◽  
Michael Stemkovski ◽  
John B. Bradford ◽  
Katharine N. Suding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Species Turnover ◽  
Spatial Gradient ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Decadal Scale

The potential for ecosystems to continue providing society with essential services may depend on their ability to acclimate to climate change through multiple processes operating from cells to landscapes. While models to predict climate change impacts on ecosystem services often consider uncertainty among greenhouse gas emission scenarios or global circulation models (GCMs), they rarely consider the rate of ecological acclimation, which depends on decadal-scale processes such as species turnover. Here we show that uncertainty due to the unknown rate of ecological acclimation is larger than other sources of uncertainty in late-century projections of forage production in US rangelands. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous productivity with an ensemble of GCMs, we projected changes in forage production using two approaches. The time-series approach, which assumes minimal acclimation, projects widespread decreases in forage production. The spatial gradient approach, which assumes ecological acclimation keeps pace with climate, predicts widespread increases in forage production. This first attempt to quantify the magnitude of a critical uncertainty emphasizes that better understanding of ecological acclimation is essential to improve long-term forecasts of ecosystem services, and shows that management to facilitate ecological acclimation may be necessary to maintain ecosystem services at historical baselines.

scholarly journals Evolution of the ESA CCI Soil Moisture climate data records and their underlying merging methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 717-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Gruber ◽  
Tracy Scanlon ◽  
Robin van der Schalie ◽  
Wolfgang Wagner ◽  
Wouter Dorigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Regular Grid ◽  
Change Initiative ◽  
Merging Algorithm ◽  
Merging Algorithms

Abstract. The European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative for Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) merging algorithm generates consistent quality-controlled long-term (1978–2018) climate data records for soil moisture, which serves thousands of scientists and data users worldwide. It harmonises and merges soil moisture retrievals from multiple satellites into (i) an active-microwave-based-only product, (ii) a passive-microwave-based-only product and (iii) a combined active–passive product, which are sampled to daily global images on a 0.25∘ regular grid. Since its first release in 2012 the algorithm has undergone substantial improvements which have so far not been thoroughly reported in the scientific literature. This paper fills this gap by reviewing and discussing the science behind the three major ESA CCI SM merging algorithms, versions 2 (https://doi.org/10.5285/3729b3fbbb434930bf65d82f9b00111c; Wagner et al., 2018), 3 (https://doi.org/10.5285/b810601740bd4848b0d7965e6d83d26c; Dorigo et al., 2018) and 4 (https://doi.org/10.5285/dce27a397eaf47e797050c220972ca0e; Dorigo et al., 2019), and provides an outlook on the expected improvements planned for the next algorithm, version 5.

scholarly journals Climate induced wolf prey selection in Yellowstone National Park, 1995-2015

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas W Smith ◽  
Matthew Metz ◽  
Chris Wilmers ◽  
Daniel Stahler ◽  
Chris Geremia
Keyword(s):  
Yellowstone National Park ◽  
National Park ◽  
Prey Selection ◽  
Selective Advantage ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Wolf Predation ◽  
Management Objectives

Prey selection by wolves has been a fundamental and long-term topic of interest for wolf-prey studies. Virtually all studies conclude the selectivity of wolf predation and typically identify what made an individual vulnerable. Vulnerability, however, varies for multiple reasons and emerging research is discovering climate induced effects on prey forage altering condition and selective advantage of migration. We present data from a twenty year study of wolf-elk predation in Yellowstone National Park (YNP) which found bull elk killed more frequently in early winter after years with less snowfall compared to years with normal snowfall. Snowfall impacted summer forage, which impacted bull elk condition going into the autumn rut, which weakened elk prematurely post-rut causing them to be selected by wolves in early rather than late winter, and possibly caused more bulls to be killed overall. Bull elk ratios have declined over the last 20 years (from 40-60 to 10-15 bulls/100 cows; lower outside YNP), which has led to calls for a reduced human harvest on bulls which has been met with significant resistance. Understanding the interaction between climate, forage and wolf predation on bull elk (and other sex/age classes) will help guide management decisions and potentially sustain hunting of bulls in the long term as well as protect natural management objectives within YNP. Results will be of widespread value as they may suggest changing predator-prey dynamics across North America by making some otherwise healthy prey vulnerable to predation.

scholarly journals Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

Rangifer ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippa McNeil ◽  
Don E. Russell ◽  
Brad Griffith ◽  
Anne Gunn ◽  
Gary P. Kofinas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factor ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Mining Sites

In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti) and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus) caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT) hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska) hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska) during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

Thermal Assessment Tool: A climate service to visualize trends of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blas Lajarín ◽  
Nieves Peña ◽  
Jorge Paz ◽  
Edward P. Morris ◽  
Greta C. Vega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts

&lt;p&gt;The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a&amp;#160;Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)&amp;#160;contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Espa&amp;#241;ola de Cambio Clim&amp;#225;tico.&lt;/p&gt;

ESA CCI and C3S Soil Moisture: latest product updates and climate assessments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter Dorigo ◽  
Wolfgang Preimesberger ◽  
Adam Pasik ◽  
Alexander Gruber ◽  
Leander Moesinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Change Initiative ◽  
Space Agency ◽  
Data Store ◽  
Climate Data Record ◽  
Level 2

&lt;p&gt;As part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) a more than 40 year long climate data record (CDR) is produced by systematically combining Level-2 datasets from separate missions. Combining multiple level 2 datasets into a single consistent long-term product combines the advantages of individual missions and allows deriving a harmonised long-term record with optimal spatial and temporal coverage. The current version of ESA CCI Soil Moisture includes a PASSIVE (radiometer-based) dataset covering the period 1978 to 2019, an ACTIVE (scatterometer-based) product covering the period 1991-2019 and a COMBINED product (1978-2019).&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The European Commission&amp;#8217;s Copernicus Climate Changes Service (C3S) uses the ESA CCI soil moisture algorithm to produce similar climate data records from near-real-time Level-2 data streams.&amp;#160; These products are continuously extended within 10 days after data acquisition and instantaneously made available through the C3S Climate Data Store. In addition to a daily product, monthly aggregates as well as a dekadal (10-days) products are produced.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this presentation we give an overview of the latest developments of the ESA CCI and C3S Soil Moisture datasets, which include the integration of SMAP and various algorithmic updates, and use the datasets to assess the hydrological conditions of 2019 with respect to a 30-year historical baseline.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The development of the ESA CCI products has been supported by ESA&amp;#8217;s Climate Change Initiative for Soil Moisture (Contract No. 4000104814/11/I-NB and 4000112226/14/I-NB). The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) soil moisture product is funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Service implemented by ECMWF through C3S 312b Lot 7 Soil Moisture service.&lt;/p&gt;

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