Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti) and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus) caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT) hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska) hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska) during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

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Evolved phenological cueing strategies show variable responses to climate change

10.1101/436857 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Collin B. Edwards ◽

Louie Yang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Similar Response ◽

Climate Data ◽

Global Pattern ◽

Continental Scale ◽

Fitness Consequences ◽

Wide Range ◽

Correlation Structures ◽

Phenological Shifts

AbstractSeveral studies have documented a global pattern of phenological advancement that is consistent with ongoing climate change. However, the magnitude of these phenological shifts is highly variable across taxa and locations. This variability of phenological responses has been difficult to explain mechanistically. To examine how the evolution of multi-trait cueing strategies could produce variable responses to climate change, we constructed a model in which organisms evolve strategies that integrate multiple environmental cues to inform anticipatory phenological decisions. We simulated the evolution of phenological cueing strategies in multiple environments, using historic climate data from 78 locations in North America and Hawaii to capture features of climatic correlation structures in the real world. Organisms in our model evolved diverse strategies that were spatially autocorrelated across locations on a continental scale, showing that similar strategies tend to evolve in similar climates. Within locations, organisms often evolved a wide range of strategies that showed similar response phenotypes and fitness outcomes under historical conditions. However, these strategies responded differently to novel climatic conditions, with variable fitness consequences. Our model shows how the evolution of phenological cueing strategies can explain observed variation in phenological shifts and unexpected responses to climate change.

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Evaluating the Tourist Climate Comfortable Period of China in a Changing Climate

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/8886316 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Dan-Dan Yu ◽

Shan Li ◽

Zhong-Yang Guo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Index ◽

Climate Indices ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Changing Climate

The evaluation of climate comfort for tourism can provide information for tourists selecting destinations and tourism operators. Understanding how climate conditions for tourism evolve is increasingly important for strategic tourism planning, particularly in rapidly developing tourism markets like China in a changing climate. Multidimensional climate indices are needed to evaluate climate for tourism, and previous studies in China have used the much criticized “climate index” with low resolution climate data. This study uses the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and daily data from 775 weather stations to examine interregional differences in the tourist climate comfortable period (TCCP) across China and summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution of TCCP from 1981 to 2010 in a changing climate. Overall, most areas in China have an “excellent” climate for tourism, such that tourists may visit anytime with many choices available. The TCCP in most regions shows an increasing trend, and China benefits more from positive effects of climate change in climatic conditions for tourism, especially in spring and autumn. These results can provide some scientific evidence for understanding human settlement environmental constructions and further contribute in improving local or regional resilience responding to global climate change.

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Agroclimatic conditions of the Osijek area during referent (1961–1990) and recent (1991–2018) climate periods

Hrvatski meteorološki časopis ◽

10.37982/hmc.54.55.1.5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 54/55 (54/55) ◽

pp. 55-64

Author(s):

Darija Bilandžija ◽

Silvija Martinčić

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Hot Spot ◽

Precipitation Amount ◽

Hydrothermal Condition ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Recent Period ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Climatic Elements

One highly important segment of agricultural production is the agroecological condition of a given area, including climatic conditions, which have been changing recently. Croatia belongs to a climate zone also known as a climate hot spot, characterised by a pronounced sensitivity to climate change. In order to determine if the climate has changed in the Osijek area, climatic elements and agroclimatic indicators were analysed for a referent period (1961∑1990) and a recent period (1991∑2018). The analysis shows that the climate has changed in the recent period as compared to the referent period. The identified climate changes manifest in higher mean air temperatures, higher precipitation amount, increased actual evapotranspiration and prolonged vegetation periods in the recent period. Furthermore, hydrothermal condition analysis shows that the ten warmest years and vegetation periods in the studied 58-year period were within the past 26 years. Due to the identified climate change and the assumption that the climate will continue to change in the future, adaptation and mitigation measures will have to be applied in agricultural production. For a more reliable assessment of agroclimatic conditions at certain area, it is recommended to analyse other climatic elements as well, such as the number of consecutive dry or rainy days above the critical precipitation threshold, wind, solar radiation, insolation, etc.

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Climate Data to Undertake Hygrothermal and Whole Building Simulations Under Projected Climate Change Influences for 11 Canadian Cities

Data ◽

10.3390/data4020072 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 72 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Abhishek Gaur ◽

Michael Lacasse ◽

Marianne Armstrong

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Snow Cover ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Data ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Future

Buildings and homes in Canada will be exposed to unprecedented climatic conditions in the future as a consequence of global climate change. To improve the climate resiliency of existing and new buildings, it is important to evaluate their performance over current and projected future climates. Hygrothermal and whole building simulation models, which are important tools for assessing performance, require continuous climate records at high temporal frequencies of a wide range of climate variables for input into the kinds of models that relate to solar radiation, cloud-cover, wind, humidity, rainfall, temperature, and snow-cover. In this study, climate data that can be used to assess the performance of building envelopes under current and projected future climates, concurrent with 2 °C and 3.5 °C increases in global temperatures, are generated for 11 major Canadian cities. The datasets capture the internal variability of the climate as they are comprised of 15 realizations of the future climate generated by dynamically downscaling future projections from the CanESM2 global climate model and thereafter bias-corrected with reference to observations. An assessment of the bias-corrected projections suggests, as a consequence of global warming, future increases in the temperatures and precipitation, and decreases in the snow-cover and wind-speed for all cities.

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New generation of U.S. satellite microwave sounder achieves high radiometric stability performance for reliable climate change detection

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.aau0049 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (10) ◽

pp. eaau0049 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Cheng-Zhi Zou ◽

Mitchell D. Goldberg ◽

Xianjun Hao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Advanced Technology ◽

Trend Detection ◽

Measured Temperature ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Trends ◽

Temperature Trends ◽

Satellite Microwave ◽

New Generation

Observations from the satellite microwave sounders play a vital role in measuring the long-term temperature trends for climate change monitoring. Changes in diurnal sampling over time and calibration drift have been the main sources of uncertainties in the satellite-measured temperature trends. We examine observations from the first of a series of U.S. new generation of microwave sounder, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which has been flying onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) environmental satellite since late 2011. The SNPP satellite has a stable afternoon orbit that has close to the same local observation time as NASA’s Aqua satellite that has been carrying the heritage microwave sounder, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A), from 2002 until the present. The similar overpass timing naturally removes most of their diurnal differences. In addition, direct comparison of temperature anomalies between the two instruments shows little or no relative calibration drift for most channels. Our results suggest that both SNPP/ATMS and Aqua/AMSU-A instruments have achieved absolute stability in the measured atmospheric temperatures within 0.04 K per decade. This uncertainty is small enough to allow reliable detection of the temperature climate trends and help to resolve debate on relevant issues. We also analyze AMSU-A observations onboard the European MetOp-A satellite that has a stable morning orbit 8 hours apart from the SNPP overpass time. Their comparison reveals large asymmetric trends between day and night in the lower- and mid-tropospheric temperatures over land. This information could help to improve climate data records for temperature trend detection with improved accuracy. The SNPP satellite will be followed by four NOAA operational Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites, providing accurate and stable measurement for decades to come. The primary mission of JPSS is for weather forecasting. Now, with the added feature of stable orbits, JPSS observations can also be used to monitor changes in climate with much lower uncertainty than the previous generation of NOAA operational satellites.

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Impact of Climate Change on Wine Tourism: An Approach through Social Media Data

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13137489 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 7489

Author(s):

Veronica Alampi Sottini ◽

Elena Barbierato ◽

Iacopo Bernetti ◽

Irene Capecchi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Additive Model ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Data ◽

Public And Private ◽

Wine Tourism ◽

Public And Private Stakeholders ◽

Using Data ◽

Tourism Flows

Wine tourism is one of the best opportunities for rural development, but because it is partially exposed to climatic conditions, it is a climate-vulnerable tourism activity. However, an understanding of the potential impacts of global climate change on this popular activity remains limited. This study proposes a new methodology that combines current daily gridded climate data from the E-OBS project with big spatiotemporal data from the Flickr photo-sharing platform through a generalized additive model This methodology was implemented to study the potential impacts on tourism flows due to climate change and to make predictions about the future using data from the CMIP5 project. We applied the methodology to 5 European wine tourism regions: Alsace (FR), Chianti (IT), La Rioja (SP), Langhe-Monferrato (IT), and Moselle (DE). Results show an increased probability of presence and increased deseasonalization of tourism in all study areas and an anticipation of peak presence from summer to spring in three of the five regions. We believe that these results can be useful for public and private stakeholders to adapt the offer of wine tourism services to changes in demand and to direct the organization of events such as festivals and thematic tours.

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ATTRICI v1.1 – counterfactual climate for impact attribution

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (8) ◽

pp. 5269-5284

Author(s):

Matthias Mengel ◽

Simon Treu ◽

Stefan Lange ◽

Katja Frieler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Impact ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

General Definition ◽

Impact Model ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Trends ◽

Long Term Changes ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Attribution in its general definition aims to quantify drivers of change in a system. According to IPCC Working Group II (WGII) a change in a natural, human or managed system is attributed to climate change by quantifying the difference between the observed state of the system and a counterfactual baseline that characterizes the system's behavior in the absence of climate change, where “climate change refers to any long-term trend in climate, irrespective of its cause” (IPCC, 2014). Impact attribution following this definition remains a challenge because the counterfactual baseline, which characterizes the system behavior in the hypothetical absence of climate change, cannot be observed. Process-based and empirical impact models can fill this gap as they allow us to simulate the counterfactual climate impact baseline. In those simulations, the models are forced by observed direct (human) drivers such as land use changes, changes in water or agricultural management but a counterfactual climate without long-term changes. We here present ATTRICI (ATTRIbuting Climate Impacts), an approach to construct the required counterfactual stationary climate data from observational (factual) climate data. Our method identifies the long-term shifts in the considered daily climate variables that are correlated to global mean temperature change assuming a smooth annual cycle of the associated scaling coefficients for each day of the year. The produced counterfactual climate datasets are used as forcing data within the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Our method preserves the internal variability of the observed data in the sense that factual and counterfactual data for a given day have the same rank in their respective statistical distributions. The associated impact model simulations allow for quantifying the contribution of climate change to observed long-term changes in impact indicators and for quantifying the contribution of the observed trend in climate to the magnitude of individual impact events. Attribution of climate impacts to anthropogenic forcing would need an additional step separating anthropogenic climate forcing from other sources of climate trends, which is not covered by our method.

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Climate and management interact to explain the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Jasper National Park

Rangifer ◽

10.7557/2.32.2.2268 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 183-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Mark Bradley ◽

Lalenia Neufeld

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Wildlife Management ◽

National Park ◽

Rangifer Tarandus ◽

Climate Data ◽

Woodland Caribou ◽

Predator Prey ◽

Jasper National Park ◽

Human Use

Woodland caribou in the southern portion of Jasper National Park have declined from an estimated 435 in the mid 1970s to a population estimate of 87 in the fall of 2009. We examined the available historical information to determine why caribou have declined. We compared three main hypotheses for caribou decline in JNP: human disturbance, climate change, and wildlife management. We used historical human use statistics, climate data, and animal abundance information to weigh the evidence for these competing hypotheses over two time scales. Caribou decline could not be attributed to changes in climate over the long-term, or an increase in human use (our proxy for disturbance). Caribou decline was attributed to a combination of climate and wildlife management. Recovery of caribou in Jasper National Park will likely be contingent on managing the interaction between the predator/prey dynamic and climate change.

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Climate trends in a specific Mediterranean viticultural area between 1950 and 2006

OENO One ◽

10.20870/oeno-one.2008.42.3.817 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 42 (3) ◽

pp. 113 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Frédéric Laget ◽

Jean-Luc Tondut ◽

Alain Deloire ◽

Mary T. Kelly

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Time Frame ◽

Total Solar Radiation ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climatic Parameters ◽

Climate Trends ◽

The Past ◽

Harvest Dates ◽

The Mean

Aims: An analysis of climate data between 1950 and 2006 in the Hérault department, situated in the Mediterranean of France is presented.Methods and results: Data presented include the evolution of mean annual and seasonal temperatures, the Huglin index, total solar radiation, night freshness index, the distribution and efficiency of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (pET). Results showed an increase in mean annual temperatures of +1.3 °C between 1980 and 2006 and an increase in the mean pET which was 900 mm / year since 1999. Also, harvest dates advanced by up to three weeks and sugar concentrations at harvest increased by up to 1.5 % potential alcohol.Conclusion: The indicators show that in this area certain climatic parameters have evolved over the period studied. Changes are observable in some of the parameters (notably temperature) for the last 30 years whereas others have evolved only in the past few years (e.g. pET). Therefore it is necessary to be circumspect in drawing conclusions on climate change in the area, particularly as regards the possible consequences for viticulture. However, at the plot level, it is clear that irrigation of the vines is becoming increasingly necessary in this region.Significance and impact of study: Climate is a major factor in vine cultivation and in the understanding of viticultural terroirs and wine typicality. The climate trends observed over a 50-year period are discussed in the viticultural context of a Mediterranean region. However, the interaction between climate change and technical progress in viticulture and oenology complicate the analysis over the time frame under consideration.

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Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Afghanistan

Addaiyan Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences - Volume-1: Issue-10 (December, 2019) ◽

10.36099/ajahss.3.8.2 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 14-21

Author(s):

Roya Quraishi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Rural Communities ◽

Food Insecurity ◽

Rural Families ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Seasonal Precipitation ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Analysis ◽

Weather Anomalies

Climate change and its toll, warming temperatures, and decreasing precipitation levels over the last fifty years have led to innumerable weather anomalies that have caused droughts, floods, seasonal precipitation, and decline of groundwater chart, deforestation, and biodiversity in Afghanistan. Among all population groups, rural communities in Afghanistan are particularly vulnerable from the effects of climate change and especially the increasing of food insecurity because their livelihoods is strongly depend on agriculture activities. Therefore, rural families have been taking some poor measures to cope with climatic conditions and adapt to them. Because poorest people, particularly farmers and pastoralists are often living on edgy land, and food security and their livelihoods suffer from climate change. So that most worrying and need to be addressed most urgently. Therefore, climate analysis help to recognize the areas that there are the biggest changes in rainfall, temperature and other physical climate parameters. This, from this kind of climate data can find that what impacts of these changes will actually observe on poverty and food insecurity, and how is increased people's livelihood by the creation of food security and suitable income.

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