scholarly journals Potential changes in the distribution of Carnegiea gigantea under future scenarios

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e5623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Albuquerque ◽  
Blas Benito ◽  
Miguel Ángel Macias Rodriguez ◽  
Caitlin Gray
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Sonoran Desert ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Desert Ecosystem ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Desert Ecosystems ◽  
Carnegiea Gigantea ◽  
Abiotic Variables ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Over the last decades several studies have identified that the directional changes in climate induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the ecology of desert ecosystems. In the Southwest United States, the impacts of climate change to plant abundance and distribution have already been reported, including in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem, home of the iconic Saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea). Hence, there is an urgent need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the saguaro. The goals of this study are to provide a map of actual habitat suitability (1), describe the relationships between abiotic predictors and the saguaro distribution at regional extents (2), and describe the potential effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of the saguaro (3). Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was used to investigate the relationships between abiotic variables and the Saguaro distribution. SDMs were calibrated using presence records, 2,000 randomly-generated pseudo absences, and ten abiotic variables. Of these, annual precipitation and max temperature of the warmest month was found to have the greatest relative influence on saguaro distribution. SDMs indicated that 6.9% and 8.1% of the current suitable habitat is predicted to be lost by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Therefore, predicted changes in climate may result in a substantial contraction of the suitable habitat for saguaro over the next century. By identifying the drivers of saguaro distribution and assessing potential changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, this study will help practitioners to design more comprehensive strategies to conserve the saguaro in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1604
Author(s):  
Sun Hee Hong ◽  
Yong Ho Lee ◽  
Gaeun Lee ◽  
Do-Hun Lee ◽  
Pradeep Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Invasive Weeds ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Control And Management

Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km2, and 990.29 km2, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (33) ◽  
pp. 34058-34066
Author(s):  
Baoxiu Xing ◽  
He Chen ◽  
Qingfeng Chen ◽  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Zifang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Jing Guo ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Guibin Wang ◽  
Tongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Test ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Leaf Traits ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

scholarly journals Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis R. Iverson ◽  
Anantha M. Prasad ◽  
Matthew P. Peters ◽  
Stephen N. Matthews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Suitable Habitats

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability and vulnerability in deciduous forests in Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 131 ◽  
pp. 108202
Author(s):  
S. del Río ◽  
R. Canas ◽  
E. Cano ◽  
A. Cano-Ortiz ◽  
C. Musarella ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Deciduous Forests ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Climate change winner in the deep sea? Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii

2021 ◽  
Vol 657 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
L Beazley ◽  
E Kenchington ◽  
FJ Murillo ◽  
D Brickman ◽  
Z Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Scotian Shelf ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Glass Sponge ◽  
Core Habitat ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Shallow-water sponges are often cited as being ‘climate change winners’ due to their resiliency against climate change effects compared to other benthic taxa. However, little is known of the impacts of climate change on deep-water sponges. The deep-water glass sponge Vazella pourtalesii is distributed off eastern North America, forming dense sponge grounds with enhanced biodiversity on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada. While the strong natural environmental variability that characterizes these sponge grounds suggests this species is resilient to a changing environment, its physiological limitations remain unknown, and the impact of more persistent anthropogenic climate change on its distribution has never been assessed. We used Random Forest and generalized additive models to project the distribution of V. pourtalesii in the northwest Atlantic using environmental conditions simulated under moderate and worst-case CO2 emission scenarios. Under future (2046-2065) climate change, the suitable habitat of V. pourtalesii will increase up to 4 times its present-day size and shift into deeper waters and higher latitudes, particularly in its northern range where ocean warming will serve to improve the habitat surrounding this originally sub-tropical species. However, not all areas projected as suitable habitat in the future will realistically be populated, and the reduced likelihood of occurrence in its core habitat on the Scotian Shelf suggests that the existing Vazella sponge grounds may be negatively impacted. An effective monitoring programme will require tracking changes in the density and distribution of V. pourtalesii at the margins between core habitat and where losses and gains were projected.

scholarly journals Impact of Increasing Pumping Discharge on Groundwater Level in the Nile Delta Aquifer, Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Asaad Armanuos ◽  
Kamal Ahmed ◽  
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru ◽  
Mehdi Jamei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Validation ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Substantial Effect ◽  
Irrigation Canals ◽  
Current State ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The main goal of this research is to develop a 3D groundwater (GW) model using MODFLOW software to assess the potential effect of increasing pumping discharges on GW level in the Nile Delta Aquifer (NDA). In this study, the current state of the irrigation canals and GW recharge are considered in the GW model. The simulated GW level was compared with the observed GW level for model validation. Three vertical cross sections in western central and eastern areas of the ND are selected to check the impacts of GW pumping on variations of GW level. Ten scenarios of increasing the abstraction rates in all areas of the ND are tested. The results confirmed that increasing the pumping discharges has a substantial effect on decreasing the GW level in central and southern areas of the NDA. In addition, the tenth scenario is considered the last case where the drawdown of GW level reached 1.32, 1.59, and 2.41m in the southern boundaries. The findings of the study should be considered when studying the management of GW resources and the impacts of climate change on the ND.

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the alpine habitat suitability of Japanese stone pine (Pinus pumila)

2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Horikawa ◽  
Ikutaro Tsuyama ◽  
Tetsuya Matsui ◽  
Yuji Kominami ◽  
Nobuyuki Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Pinus Pumila ◽  
Stone Pine ◽  
Alpine Habitat ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9608
Author(s):  
An T. N. Dang ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Michael Reid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Rice Paddy ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Rice paddy fields, considered as a human-made wetland ecosystems, play important roles in food production and ecosystem conservation. Nowadays, rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, is under severe threat from climate changes, yet there is a shortage of documented information and research on rice production under future climate. Hence, the present study investigates the impacts of climate change on rice cultivation in the MD using an ensemble-modelling approach, implemented by biomod2 platform in R software. Rice cultivation occurrence points, eco-physiological and bioclimatic data were utilised to model habitat suitability for rice cultivation under current and future climate, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the year 2050. The ensemble model obtained acceptable accuracy with scores of 0.880, 0.993 and 0.960 for KAPPA, ROC/AUC and TSS, respectively. Simulation results show that the mean loss of suitable land and mean gain of unsuitable land were 31.4% and 64.6%, respectively, for the year 2050 compared to the present. Salinity intrusion, increases in precipitation during rainy season and decreases in precipitation during dry season were key factors driving the loss of suitable habitat. The findings of this study critically support policy makers and planners in developing appropriate strategies for adaptation and mitigation in response to climate change for sustainable rice cultivation.

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