scholarly journals Poverty, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981-2019)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chinonye Emmanuel Onwuka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Integration Test

Abstract This study empirically examined the relationship between poverty, income inequality and economic growth in Nigeria. The study used time series data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin between the periods from 1981 to 2019. The study employed the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Co integration test and Error Correction technique. The unit root test results indicated that all the variables were stationary at first difference and co-integration test confirmed a long run relationship among the variables. The error correction model shows that about 96 percent of the discrepancy between the actual and the equilibrium value of economic growth is corrected or eliminated each year. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.68 which shows that about 68 percent variations in the economic growth were explained by the independent variables . Furthermore, the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test shows that the probability of the chi-square (2) is 0.2775 and this is greater than 0.05 at 5% significance level. This therefore confirms the absence of serial correlation. Also, the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroscadaticity test indicates that the probability of chi-square (5) is 0.1242 and this is greater than 0.05 at 5% significant level. This also confirms the absence of heteroscedasticity in the model. From the study, the findings revealed that income inequality has a negative relationship with economic growth in the country while poverty was found to be positively related to economic growth. Similarly, the findings also revealed that poverty and income inequality has an insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that poverty and income inequality has not significant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, the study concludes that there is need for government of the country to come up with an all-inclusive policy and programme that will be targeted to the poor and give them ample opportunities to improve their welfare.

scholarly journals Effect of Agricultural Sector Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
O. O. Akanbi ◽  
E. G. Onuk ◽  
H. S. Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

The study examined the Effect of Government Agricultural Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth. Time series data (1981–2015) were generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive Statistics and Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. A unit root test was carried out to ascertain the stationarity of the series. Johansen co-integration test was also carried out to establish co-integration status of the variables in the model. For valid inference, estimated coefficients were subjected to normality, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity and dynamic stability tests. The null hypotheses in relation to the respective tests statistic could not be rejected at 5% level of significance. The negative sign and statistical significant of Error Correction term of the VEC model, further confirmed the existence of co-integrating relationship among the variables in the model. The descriptive statistics result shows that, for almost a decade, public spending on agriculture consistently decline and was below the 10% benchmark of the Maputo declaration. The estimated VECM results showed that on the long-run, only the coefficient of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable influenced the economic growth, which was proxy by National GDP. This influence was positive and statistically significant at 5% probability level. However, on the short run, the result showed that both coefficients of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable and that of agricultural output were both positive and statistically significant in influencing the economic growth (GDP) at 5% probability level. Hence, since government expenditure has positive and significant effect on economic growth both on the short run and long run, it is recommended that government should review upward agricultural expenditure to stimulate growth in Nigerian economy, which could trigger more employment opportunity, increase per capita income, improved agricultural sector infrastructural deficit  and reduce poverty.

scholarly journals External Sector Aggregates and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
Akidi, Victor ◽  
Tubotamuno, Boma ◽  
Obayori, Joseph Bidemi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
External Sector

This paper empirically examined the effects of selected external sector aggregates on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. Time series data on Real Gross Domestic Product as proxy for economic growth, and on Imports, Exports, Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment were collected from secondary sources. The data sets were analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test, co-integration test and error correction technique of model estimation. The result of the analysis revealed that Imports, Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment negatively related with economic growth while Exports positively related with economic growth in Nigeria within the reviewed period. Also, except Exchange Rate all the other explanatory variables – Imports, Exports and Foreign Direct Investment did not impact significantly on economic growth in Nigeria within the period of study. Based on these findings, the study recommends that government should encourage export diversification, especially the non-oil sector exports. This can be achieved through value addition in both the agriculture and manufacturing sub-sectors output.

scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure in Economic Growth of Nepal: ARDL Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Keshar Bahadur Kunwar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lm Test

Public expenditure refers to the expenditure made by public authority, i.e., central government and other local bodies to carter the demand of the people. It is for protecting the citizens and for promoting their economic and social welfare. Public expenditure is one of the instruments through which government influence economic events. The specific objective of this paper is to analyze the long run and short run relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal and to examine the Causal relationship between the public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal. The study employed quantitative techniques and econometrics methods to analyze the data. This study used time series data. Data analysis begins with the testing of the unit root of the series to confirm whether the data are stationary or not. Augmented Dicky Fuller unit root test, co-integration test is employed to check the relationship of the variables under study. One period lagged LNGE has significant and positive impact on RGDP. If 1 percent increase in GE leads to increase by 34.99 percent in RGDP at 5 percent level of significance. The coefficient of error correction term (-0.782018) is significant at one percent level. Highly significant negative sign of the error correction term strengthens the presence of long-run relationship among the variables. However, the speed of adjustment from previous year’s disequilibrium in RGDP added to current year’s equilibrium is only 78.20 percent. The P-value of Breusch-Godfrey serial Correlation LM Test, Heteroscedasticity test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey and normality test is greater than 5 percent which is desirable. So, this model is free from auto correlation and heteroscedasticity. The residual is normally distributed.

scholarly journals Impact of Money Supply on Sri Lankan Economy: An Econometric Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 11-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L.M. Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
The Impact

Economists argue that the money supply positively impact on economic growth of nations. In Sri Lankan context this statement was not tested econometrically. Therefore, the aim of this study was to scrutinize the impact of money supply on Sri Lankan economy. To exam this objective, this study considered the time series data from the period of 1959 to 2013 and used two types of variables such as dependent and independent variables. Here, the gross domestic product was considered as dependent variable, and Money supply, Exchange rate, Exports earnings, Imports outflow, the Colombo consumer price index were deemed as independent variables. In the meantime, the multivariate econometric method was used to test the impacts of money supply on economic growth of Sri Lanka. According to the analytical results, the money supply has kept positive impact on the economic growth of Sri Lanka at 1% significant level. The R-squared of the estimated model was 92% which was indicated that the estimated model was desirable. Meanwhile, the Durbin Watson test statistic was 2.43 and also the Breusch –Godfrey serial correlation LM test results was greater than 5%. Therefore, these statistics indicated that, the estimated model was not suffering from serial correlation.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: A Bivariate Co-integration Analysis for Two Emerging Markets of India and China

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-22
Author(s):  
Rakesh Shahani ◽  
Kamya Raghuvansi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
India And China

The article investigates the co-integrating relation between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth of India and China: the two emerging markets of Asia. The article also tries to test the functional form of EKC as applicable to India and China. The study takes annual data for the 55 year period from 1960–2014 and the variables included are GDP per capita (a proxy for economic growth) and CO2 emissions per capita (a proxy for the environmental degradation). The co-integrating relation has been tested using Johansen (1988) co-integration test which is supplemented with VAR-VECM Model at p-1 lags with error correction mechanism showing adjustment between short- and long-run equilibrium. The diagnostics include stationarity, parameter stability and structural breaks (using Chow breakeven test & CUSUM plots) and serial correlation (using VEC-LM test). The empirical results showed long-term co-integration between GDP and CO2 emissions for India but not for China with lagged ECM term for India with a value of 0.0466 showed that the 4 per cent of the dis-equilibrium be corrected in same year itself. The stationary test showed that both our variables were stationary either at I(1) or I(2) but none of these were at levels. The null of serial correlation showed no serial correlation. The Chow and Stability tests revealed that for CO2 emissions in India, there was a break in 2009. VEC Granger causality tests showed that there was uni-directional causality for India flowing from GDP to CO2 emissions. EKC functional form of Cubic representation was proved for China where the curve was found to be ‘N’ shaped but EKC could not be proved in case of India.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Countries- Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Lawal Muhammad ◽  
Victor Ushahemba Ijirshar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Integration Test

This study examines the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth of Nigeria. The main objective of the study is to explore and quantify the contribution of Foreign Direct inflows to economic growth in Nigeria and other macro-economic variable(s). The model built for the study proxy real gross domestic product as the endogenous variable measuring economic growth as a function of Foreign Direct Investment,Domestic capital, Government Expenditure, real exchange rate and Inflation rate as the exogenous variables in the first model while unemployment was expressed as a function of Foreign Direct Investment, Governmentexpenditure and real GDP. Annual time series data was gathered from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Economic Outlook spanning 1970 to 2013. The study used econometric techniques of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, pairwise granger causality test,Johansen co-integration test and error correction model (ECM) for empirical analysis. The results of unit rootrevealed that, all the variables in the model were integrated at first difference while pairwise granger causality revealed a unidirectional relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria and no causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and unemployment rate. The co-integration test shows that, long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the variables captured in model but model 2 revealed no hypothesized co-integrating equation. FDI had positive but not statistically significantrelationship with Nigerians economy growth in both the short and long run. The findings from the error correction method show that, the distortion in will adjust itself to equilibrium at 0.3% in each period which is very slow in adjusting to equilibrium in case of any distortion. The study recommends that, the government need to aggressively initiate policies to channel the Nation's domestic savings for investment purposes and enact policies to train human capital to argument increasing FDI into the country to stimulate the economy towards rapid and sustained economic growth.

Analysing Nexus between Economic Growth, GHG Emissions, and Energy Consumption for India

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Asim Hasan ◽  
Rahil Akhtar Usmani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Causal Influence ◽  
Integration Test

Rising greenhouse gas emissions is an important issue of the current time. India’s massive greenhouse gas emissions is ranked third globally. The escalating energy demand in the country has opened the gateway for further increase in emissions. Recent studies suggest strong nexus between energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions. This study has the objective to empirically test the aforementioned interdependencies. The co-integration test and multivariate vector error correction model (VECM) are used for the analysis and the Granger Causality test is used to establish the direction of causality. The time-series data for the period of 1971–2011 is used for the analysis. The results of the study confirm strong co-integration between variables. The causality results show that economic growth exerts a causal influence on carbon emissions, energy consumption exerts a causal influence on economic growth, and carbon emissions exert a causal influence on economic growth. Based on the results, the study suggests a policy that focuses on energy conservation and gradual replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, which would be beneficial for the environment and the society.

Economic growth and income inequality: a non-linear econometrics analysis of the SADC region, 1990–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindokuhle Talent Zungu ◽  
Lorraine Greyling ◽  
Nkanyiso Mbatha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Transition Function ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Smooth Transition Regression

PurposeThe authors investigate the growth–inequality relationship, using panel data from 13 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over the period 1990–2015, to test the validity of the Kuznets and Tribble theories. Furthermore, the authors seek to determine the threshold level at which excessive growth hampers inequality.Design/methodology/approachThe panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model has several stages. The authors applied the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test to find the appropriate transition variable amongst all candidate variables, to assess the linearity between economic growth and income inequality and to find the sequence for selecting the order m of the transition function. The authors then estimated the PSTR model, but before facilitating the results, the authors first used the wild cluster bootstrap (WCB)–LM-type test to assess the appropriateness of the selected transition.FindingsThe authors found that at lower growth, income inequality tends to be lower, while if growth increases above US$8,969, inequality tends to increase in the SADC region. The findings combine into a U-shaped relationship, contradicting the Kuznets and Tribble theories.Originality/valueThe contribution of this paper is that it becomes the first to provide the threshold level at which excessive growth increases inequality in the selected countries. This study proposes that policymakers should focus on activities aimed at stimulating growth, in other words, activities such as spending more on infrastructure, drawing up a suitable investment portfolio and spending on technological investment for countries that are below US$8,969. An improvement in these activities will create job opportunities, which in turn will add to economic growth and thus lead to lower income inequality and better social cohesion.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Modelling and Granger Causality Test

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagner’s law is applicable to South Africa since government expenditure is an effect rather than a cause of economic growth. The results presented in this study are similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by preceding studies.

scholarly journals Long-run and short-run responses of agricultural sector growth to its determinants in Nigeria

Agro-Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
H.S. Umar ◽  
S.I. Audu ◽  
C.N. Okoye
Keyword(s):  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Step Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
Short Run

The study examined the long-run and short-run responses of agricultural sector growth to its determinants in Nigeria using time series data (1981 2015). Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) method was employed in the analysis of the data. Jarque-Bera Normality Test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Engle Granger 2-Step Test for Co-Integration and CUSUM of Squares Test were used to test for normality, serial correlation and structural dynamic stability of the data. The trend of agricultural sector growth revealed that sustained growth of the sector has been experienced since 2001 up till 2015. The results revealed that agricultural sector growth was positively and significantly influenced by capital expenditure in the sector, which was proxy by Total Government Agricultural Expenditure (TGAE), in the long-run; while in the short-run, the sector growth was positively and significantly influenced by labour employment. It is therefore recommended that for sustained agricultural sector growth and development in the country, increased capital expenditure in the sector should be pursued with sustained vigour. Since agriculture sector shows immediate and significant response to employment, it should be made attractive to youth employment by provision of incentive. This would ensure dual gain of tackling unemployment problem in the country and ensure agricultural sector growth.

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