scholarly journals Oil Revenue and Economic Growth; an Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 29-40
Author(s):  
Ewubare Dennis Brown ◽  
Uzoma Chidoka Nnamaka
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Sector

The study examined the effects of oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2017. Time series data were sourced from secondary sources on Gross Domestic Product, Oil Revenue, Oil Rent and Domestic Price of Petrol. The analysis started by analyzing the descriptive statistics of the series and proceeded to examination of the stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationary using Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The ARDL model was used to estimate the coefficients of the parameters for both the short-run and the long-run. The F-statistics obtained from the bounds co-integration test shows a stable long run relationship between the variables. Findings from the study showed that in the long run, oil revenue and oil rent impacted on GDP positively although not significantly. In the short run however, both variables retarded economic growth in Nigeria. This goes a long way to show that the enormous windfall from crude oil in the nation has been mismanaged. The domestic price of petrol impacted positively on economic growth both in the long run and short run. The study therefore recommends a judicious use of the revenue generated from the oil sector to provide long term sustainable economic growth. In addition, due to the volatility and uncertainty in the oil sector in Nigeria, government should embark on a realistic diversification plan to alternative sectors of the economy to enhance the productive base of the nation seeing that crude oil is an exhaustible asset.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals Effect of Agricultural Sector Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
O. O. Akanbi ◽  
E. G. Onuk ◽  
H. S. Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Probability Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

The study examined the Effect of Government Agricultural Expenditure on Nigeria’s Economic Growth. Time series data (1981–2015) were generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive Statistics and Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. A unit root test was carried out to ascertain the stationarity of the series. Johansen co-integration test was also carried out to establish co-integration status of the variables in the model. For valid inference, estimated coefficients were subjected to normality, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity and dynamic stability tests. The null hypotheses in relation to the respective tests statistic could not be rejected at 5% level of significance. The negative sign and statistical significant of Error Correction term of the VEC model, further confirmed the existence of co-integrating relationship among the variables in the model. The descriptive statistics result shows that, for almost a decade, public spending on agriculture consistently decline and was below the 10% benchmark of the Maputo declaration. The estimated VECM results showed that on the long-run, only the coefficient of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable influenced the economic growth, which was proxy by National GDP. This influence was positive and statistically significant at 5% probability level. However, on the short run, the result showed that both coefficients of Government Agricultural Expenditure variable and that of agricultural output were both positive and statistically significant in influencing the economic growth (GDP) at 5% probability level. Hence, since government expenditure has positive and significant effect on economic growth both on the short run and long run, it is recommended that government should review upward agricultural expenditure to stimulate growth in Nigerian economy, which could trigger more employment opportunity, increase per capita income, improved agricultural sector infrastructural deficit  and reduce poverty.

scholarly journals Nexus between Economic Growth, Tourism Revenue and Financial Development in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Syeda Sumaiya Habib ◽  
Md. Shahanawaz Sharif ◽  
Mohammad Amzad Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tourism Revenue

The main objective of this study is to analyze the nexus between economic growth, tourism revenue, and financial development in Bangladesh. This paper uses time series data from 1995 to 2016. Advance technique of time series analysis: Johansen Cointegration Approach is used to test the Cointegration among variables. Moreover, the Vector Error Correction (VECM) has been applied to study the long run and short run association among variables. The outcome of this study reveals that the tourism revenue and financial development has positive impact on economic growth in the long run. Variance decomposition and impulse response function also supports the positive association. According to the estimation of Granger Causality also reveals the unilateral direction in short run economic growth to tourism revenue. Providing more credit by financial sector to invest more on infrastructure and promoting Bangladesh as well as insuring proper security for foreign visitors would increase the revenue of this sector, which in turn stimulates economic growth of the country.

scholarly journals Personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth in Israel: A trivariate causality test

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1014-1027
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Per Capita

The current study investigates the causal relationship between personal remittances and economic growth using Israel time series data from 1975 to 2011. In a bid to contain the omission-of-variable bias not addressed in many past studies on this topic, this study included banking sector development as a third variable in the relationship between personal remittances and economic growth to create a tri-variate causality framework. Personal remittances as a ratio of GDP, domestic credit to private sector by banks as a ratio of GDP and GDP per capita were used as proxies for personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth respectively for the purposes of this study. It used the Johansen co-integration test to examine the existence of the long run relationship and vector error correction model (VECM) to determine the direction of causality between personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth both in the long and short run. The findings reveal that: (1) there is a significant long run causality relationship running from GDP per capita and banking sector development towards personal remittances, (2) there is an insignificant long run causality relationship running from personal remittances and GDP per capita towards banking sector development, (3) there is no long run causality relationship running from personal remittances and banking sector development towards GDP per capita and there is no short run causality relationship between the three variables that were under study in Israel. The author therefore recommends the authorities of Israel to speed up the implementation of banking sector development and economic growth programmes in order to increase the quantity of personal remittances inflows

scholarly journals Do banking sector reforms cause economic growth?: Empirical evidence from Africa’s largest economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 553-564
Author(s):  
Andy Titus Okwu ◽  
Olusola Babatunde Falaiye ◽  
Rowland Tochukwu Obiakor ◽  
Ajibola Joseph Olusegun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Reform Strategies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Control

This paper employed time series data on relevant empirical diagnostics to examine banking sector growth-led nexus within the context of Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria. Diagnostics established stationarity of banking sector indicators and control variables at first difference. Findings showed no causal relationships between banking sector reforms and economic growth in the short-run and that, though liberalisation in particular did not Granger-cause growth of the economy during the study period, banking sector reforms caused growth of the real sector of the Nigerian economy. Hence, the caveat was that long-run growth effects of banking sector reforms on real sectors of economies are functions of policy targets of such banking or financial sectors reform strategies. Consequently, articulation of banking and financial sectors reforms within long-run rather than short-run perspectives and complementarity of liberalisation were recommended.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF FDI ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-116
Author(s):  
Liza Alili Sulejmani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Republic Of Macedonia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

The importance of FDI on the economic growth of a country is widely accepted fact among the scholars and policymakers, beside of the existing debate regarding the strength of its impact and the level of the development of a country.In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of FDI on the Macedonian economy, through the co-integration and VECM methodology. In addition, this study analyzes the impact of FDI in the short-run and long-run period in the Republic of Macedonia, utilizing quarterly time series data for the period 1998 – 2017. Moreover, time series are tested for unit root by employing the Augmented Dickey Fuller test, demonstrating that variables contain unit root in their level, while are stationary in their first difference.Secondly, Granger causality test is used in order to investigate the causal relationship among FDI and real GDP growth rate in Republic of Macedonia for 1998q1-2017q2, by suggesting unidirectional causal relationship among these variables.Last but not least, this study investigates the existence of significant relationship between FDI and economic growth in the context of the Macedonian economy, in both long – run and short – run time period.

scholarly journals Financial Development and Stock Traded Contributions towards Economic Growth

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-8
Author(s):  
Shehper Maryam Zafar ◽  
Nadia Bukhari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Term Impact

This purpose of this research is check the long run as well as short run impact of Financial Development and Stock traded on the economic growth in the scenario of Pakistan. The time series data has taken for the year 1988-2013. This paper utilized ARDL methodology to determine long-term impact of Financial Development and Stock Traded on Economic growth. Further Granger Causality Check has used to check a uni-directional relationship. The results of this test support that FD and stock traded has a uni-directional impact over economic growth. Further, it has depicted from ARDL that there is a positive relationship between FD and Economic Growth as well as Stock Traded and Economic Growth.

scholarly journals Impact of inflation on economic growth in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Ijaz Uddin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction. High and sustained economic growth with low inflation is the central objective of the macroeconomic policy makers. Therefore, inflation has been one of the most researched topics in macroeconomics for the last many years because it has serious implications for GDP growth. The main aim of this empirical study to examined the relationship b/w (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Growth and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 1990 to 2015. Methodology. This study apply (ADF) Augmented dickey fuller test for stationary, and then, Engel Granger Co-integration test, for short run and long run association. Results. There is a strong positive and significance relationship between GDP growth and inflation in Pakistan. Which indicate that is a 1unit increase an inflation rate will caused by GDP increased by 0.27 unit.

scholarly journals Islamic Capital Markets and Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 39-58
Author(s):  
Dr. Mohammad Ayaz ◽  
Dr.Hassan Shakeel Shah ◽  
Dr. Talat Hussain ◽  
Majid Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research was conducted to find out whether Islamic capital markets (ICMs) have any effect on economic growth (EG). The study also made a comparison between three countries including Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE in this regard. Quantitative research technique was used in this study, where secondary and time series data was collected on a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2017. The effect of independent variables (IVs) on the dependent variable (DV) was examined. Co-integration and ARDL test were applied in Eviews 9 and Microfit 5.0. A growth model was developed for the selected countries separately in order to see whether IVs had any effect on DV. GDP was the DV of study while IMCAP, TNI and TNL were its IVs. It was found that in case of Pakistan and Malaysia, all the IVs had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in the long run only IMCAP and TNI have a significant impact. In case of UAE, only two IVs (IMCAP and TNL) had a significant effect on EG in the short run, while in long run only one IV (IMCAP) has a significant impact. Further, it was found that IVs jointly had a significant effect on EG of the selected countries. So, this study concluded that ICMs do have a significant effect on EG of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE. Considering the importance of ICMs in EG, regulators and policy makers are likely to benefit from the results of the current study which acts as a guide for developing and reforming the ICMs of Pakistan, Malaysia and UAE.Keywords: , , 

scholarly journals Pre-COVID-19 evaluation of external debt, corruption and economic growth in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeThis study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.FindingsThe study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.Originality/valueThe study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

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