scholarly journals Market Integration and Price Leadership among Major Mulberry Cocoon Markets in South India

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-34
Author(s):  
G. R. Halagundegowda ◽  
P. Kumaresan ◽  
. Muttanna ◽  
Y. Satish
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Good Proxy ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models

Market integration is a good proxy for measuring market efficiency and the emerging price signals from the markets can be utilized to benefit both farmers and reelers alike. The present study empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among the prices of major cocoons markets viz. Ramanagaram (Karnataka), Sidlaghatta (Karnataka), Hindupur (Andra Pradesh) and Dharmapuri (Tamil Nadu) in terms of market integration. The monthly average prices of cross breed mulberry cocoons for a period between April 2002 and March 2021 were considered for the present study. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) (tau) testindicated that all the price series were non-stationary at level, but were stationary after first difference. The Johansen's multivariate cointegration procedure revealed existence of cointegration among the prices of cocoon markets. The Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) revealed a long run price causality running from Ramanagaram and Sidlaghatta markets to all other markets considered under study. The Granger causality test indicated a unidirectional causality running from Ramanagaram and Sidlaghatta markets to all markets and not vice versa. The prices prevailed in Ramanagaram and Sidlaghatta markets controlled and decided the current prices of cross breed cocoons both in long run and short run in all other markets considered for the study.

Are the Indian Ragi Markets Integrated?

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Return To Equilibrium ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Bidirectional Flow ◽  
Flow Of Information

The Indian consumers and policymakers recognized finger millet (Ragi) increasingly as a nutritious staple. Karnataka, Uttrakhand, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are the major ragi producing States contributing 90 percent of the Indian Ragi production. Various initiatives in recent years have aimed at promoting agricultural market integration. The present study aimed at testing the integration across the ragi markets in Tamil Nadu. The ADF test was used to assess the stationarity, Johansen cointegration, and the VECM model was used to analyze the long-term cointegration among the markets. Granger causality was used to assess the direction of the flow of information across markets. All the price series were first difference stationary. There existed two cointegration equations depicting the long-term integration across the markets. In the majority of the selected markets, a bidirectional flow of information was observed. Chinthamani and Tumkur markets error correction coefficients were significant, indicating that they will return to equilibrium in the short run by making corrections. Chinthamnai price influenced the Tumkur, Hosur, and Denkanikottai price at one month lag. The Tumkur price was influenced by its one-month lag and Hosur and Vellore one-month lag price. Tumkur and Vellore influence Hosur price by one month lag. The analysis found that Indian ragi markets were integrated in the long run.

scholarly journals The Dynamic of Macroeconomics Elements in Malaysia: Further Insight into Causality Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dayang Hummida Abang Abdul Rahman ◽  
Nuzaihan Majidi ◽  
Jati Kasuma ◽  
Yusman Yacob ◽  
Dayang Affizzah Awang Marikan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

This paper intends to explore the causality effect between Growth Domestic Product (GDP), population and unemployment in Malaysia. Based on the observation of Malaysia’s historical data, there is a distinct movement in each of these individual macroeconomics components over the years. Past literature within the same area has illustrated various patterns on the possibility of a causal relationship that each variable has on one another. Several stages of analysis are conducted to verify the presence of causality effect from Malaysian economic perspective, which includes unit root test that employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) procedures, followed by Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration and Granger-causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using E-views software. Each procedure is conducted using Malaysia’s time series data for each of the three elements from 1980 to 2013 obtained from Malaysia’s Department of Statistics. Our findings revealed that there is one cointegration detected for the tested variables; whereas the results indicate that population can Granger cause unemployment in the short run. Furthermore, it is found that unemployment solely bears the effect from short run adjustment to bring about the long run equilibrium within the tested framework. This study is important for the policy maker to understand the reason behind the causality effect that could jeopardize the rate of unemployment in Malaysia. As the attention is given specifically to three variables particularly GDP, population and unemployment, this study is aimed at broadening the prospect for further investigation within the same area of macroeconomics.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

scholarly journals The Relative Importance of Health Care and Social Services for Population Health: A Time Series Investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Benjamin Yawney ◽  
Akhter Faroque
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Population Health ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models

We study the relative importance of government health care and social services spending in the short, medium and long run across vector error correction models for six population health indicators. Each model takes into account the key time series properties of the health input and output data and also controls for the broader socio-economic, demographic, life-style and environmental determinants of health. The evidence shows that both types of spending contribute significantly to extending life expectancy and lowering mortality. However, the relative contributions of health care spending are bigger in the short run, while those of social services spending are bigger in the medium and the long run. Any policy of re-allocation of resources from health care to social services must take this trade-off into account.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF MONEY ON OUTPUT IN CZECH REPUBLIC AND ROMANIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihaela SIMIONESCU ◽  
Adam P. BALCERZAK ◽  
Yuriy BILAN ◽  
Anna KOTÁSKOVÁ
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models ◽  
The Impact

The problem of relationship between output and money has become again a subject of special interests of economists after the most recent global financial crisis and monetary stabilization policies applied by central banks of almost all developed economies. In this context, the main aim of this paper is to assess the relation between GDP and the most important monetary variables in two countries: Romania and Czech Republic over the period of 1995:Q1 – 2015:Q4. The choice of these economies was deliberate. The selected countries are different from the viewpoint of rate and results of transformation from the centrally planned to market economy, which have influenced their current economic environment stability. Czech Republic is currently classified as middle or even developed country, whereas Romania is still considered as a developing economy. Thus, differences between these two countries make them interesting in the case of comparative studies. In the empirical part of our research the vector error correction models (VECM) were applied. The main findings of the article are the following: in Romania, there is a short-run causality from money supply (M3) to GDP and a long-run relationship between GDP, internal credit and M3. According to Granger causality test, the rate of M3 in Romania was a cause for economic. In Czech Republic, there is a short-run causality from M3 to GDP and a long-run causality between GDP, internal credit and M3. Thus, the results contradict the money neutrality hypothesis in post-transformation Central European economies.

scholarly journals Market Integration and Price Transmission in the Vertical Supply Chain of Rice: An Evidence from Bangladesh

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 271
Author(s):  
Limon Deb ◽  
Yoonsuk Lee ◽  
Sang Hyeon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Retail Prices

As a staple food, rice has an enormous market in Bangladesh in terms of market participants and the volume of the product. As the price of rice is always a sensitive factor for producers, poor consumers and policy makers, this paper investigates market integration and price transmission along the vertical supply chain of rice. Johansen’s test of co-integration confirmed that farm, wholesale and retail prices are co-integrated in the long-run. A causality test revealed that prices were found to be at wholesale levels for both the upstream and downstream markets. The asymmetry error correction model (ECM) has discovered short-run and long-run asymmetry in price transmission in the vertical supply chain where both producers and consumers were being affected due to positive and negative asymmetry. Threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) models have confirmed threshold co-integration as well as threshold effect on asymmetry in price transmission. The results highlight the inevitability of policy implementations and increased public interventions to reduce asymmetry for engendering greater pricing efficiency in Bangladesh rice markets.

scholarly journals Co-integration of Groundnut Markets in India with Special Reference to Karnataka State

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-22
Author(s):  
Akshata Nayak ◽  
H. Lokesha ◽  
C. P. Gracy
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Groundnut Oil ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Government

Aims: Market integration is an indicator that explains how different markets are related to each other. The main aim of the paper is to examine the market integration of groundnut seed and oil markets in India.  Study Design: This paper examines the market integration in six major groundnut oil markets and four groundnut pod markets using monthly wholesale prices of groundnut. Methodology: Test for stationarity was done using Dickey Fuller Test. The Engle-Granger two-step method is used to test for co-integration between the variables. Johansen co-integration test was applied to analyse the long run equilibrium among the groundnut markets. Results: Unit root test indicated that the price series in each location are non-stationary at their levels and stationary at their first differences. The Granger causality test indicated that all the market pairs are well co-integrated, some of the markets have bidirectional relationship and some have unidirectional relationship at five per cent level of significance, which implies that the groundnut prices have an equally long run association. Conclusion: In overall, the study suggests that regional markets for groundnut in India are strongly co-integrated. Therefore, the Government can stabilize the price in one key market and rely on commercialization to produce a similar outcome in other markets. This reduces the cost of stabilization considerably.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

scholarly journals Supply line engineering on importation and exportation: bimstec perspective

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arodh Lal Karn ◽  
Rakshha Kumari Karna
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Supply Line ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Line Engineering

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1986-2010)

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (12) ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
TAIWO AKINLO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the causal relationship between insurance and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986-2010. The Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was adopted. The cointegration test shows that GDP, premium, inflation and interest rate are cointegrated when GDP is the edogeneous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is no causality between economic growth and premium in short run while premum, inflation and interest rate Granger cause GDP in the long run which means there is unidirectional causality running from premium, inflation and interest rate to GDP. This means insurance contributes to economic growth in Nigeria as they provide the necessary long-term fund for investment and absolving risks.

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