Egocentric Projection is a Rational Strategy for Accurate Emotion Prediction

People need to accurately understand and predict others’ emotions in order to build and maintain meaningful social connections. However, when they encounter new social partners, people often do not have enough information about them to make accurate inferences. Rather, they often resort to an egocentric heuristic, and make predictions about a target by using their own self-knowledge as a proxy. Is this egocentric heuristic a form of cognitive bias, or is it a rational strategy for real-world social prediction? If egocentrism provides a rational and effective solution to the challenging task of social prediction in naturalistic contexts, we should expect that a) egocentric predictions tend to be more accurate, and b) people rely on self-knowledge to a greater extent when it’s more likely to be a good proxy. Using an emotion prediction task and personality measures, we assessed similarity and predictive accuracy between first year college students and their new acquaintance roommate. Results demonstrated that, when people need to make predict an unfamiliar target’s emotions, self-knowledge can often effectively approximate knowledge about others, and thus support accurate predictions. Moreover, participants that were typical of the sample, whose self-knowledge can better approximate information about the target, relied more on self-knowledge in their predictions, and thus achieved higher accuracy. These findings suggest that people rationally tune their use of egocentrism based on whether it is likely to pay off. Overall, these findings demonstrate a rational side to a cognitive phenomenon usually framed as a cognitive pitfall, namely egocentric projection, when its natural decision context is taken into consideration.

Relationship between topography, tropospheric wind, and frequency of mountain waves in the upper mesosphere over the Kanto area of Japan

Imaging observations of OH airglow were performed at Meiji University, Japan (35.6° N, 139.5° E), from May 2018 to December 2019. Mountainous areas are located to the west of the imager, and westerly winds are dominant in the lower atmosphere throughout the year. Mountain waves (MWs) are generated and occasionally propagate to the upper atmosphere. However, only four likely MW events were identified, which are considerably fewer than expected. There are two possible reasons for the low incidence: (1) MWs do not propagate easily to the upper mesosphere due to background wind conditions, and/or (2) the frequency of MW excitation was low around the observation site. Former possibility is found not to be a main reason to explain the frequency by assuming typical wind profiles in troposphere and upper mesosphere over Japan. Thus, frequency and spatial distribution of orographic wavy clouds were investigated by analyzing images taken by the Himawari-8 geostationary meteorological satellite in 2018. The number of days when wavy clouds were detected in the troposphere around the observation site (Kanto area) was about a quarter of that around the Tohoku area. This result indicates that frequency of over-mountain flow which is thought to be a source of excitation of MWs is low in Kanto area. We also found that the angle between the horizontal wind direction in troposphere and the orientation of the mountain ridge is a good proxy for the occurrence of orographic wavy clouds, i.e., excitation of MWs. We applied this proxy to the topography around the world to investigate regions where MWs are likely to be excited frequently throughout the year to discuss the likelihood of "MW hotspots" at various spatial scale. Graphical Abstract

Predictive Value of Estimated Beta

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is widely used in corporate finance to assess expected returns of securities and return on equity, and beta, a measure of systematic risk, is a component of the CAPM equation. Previous studies appear not to have addressed whether beta as a stand-alone metric allows individual investors to effectively assess returns relative to the market, and this study aims to address this. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reflecting a range of expected volatilities relative to the S&P 500 index were selected. Betas of XLK (Technology sector), XLE (Energy sector), XLU (Utilities sector), and XLY (Consumer Staples sector) were estimated by regressing their weekly returns over five years against those of the S&P 500 index. Three five-year periods were used (ending in 2005, 2010, and 2015). The betas largely conformed to anticipated values with the exception of that of XLY which was surprisingly greater than the market beta. Estimated and observed betas were compared using a two-tailed paired T-test and no difference was found, suggesting that estimated beta is statistically a good proxy for actual beta. In practical terms though, there were relatatively large variances in several instances between estimated and observed betas, and this could be a concern for investors. Returns using estimated beta and actual returns were also compared over one, two, three, four, and five years with regard to the three five-year periods. Significant variation was observed for expected minus observed returns both in sign and magnitude. A two-tailed paired T-test suggested there was a difference between returns using estimated beta and actual ones over the three five-year periods for all funds except XLE. The observations suggest betas are volatile and individual investors should incorporate additional metrics to forecast returns relative to the market.

A Jurassic flower bud from the Jurassic of China

Angiosperms may be distinguished from their gymnosperm peers by their flowers, and thus a flower is a good proxy of fossil angiosperms. However, flowers and their parts are usually too frail to be preserved in the fossil record. This makes the origin of angiosperms and their flowers the foci of controversy in botany. Eliminating such botanical controversies can only be achieved by studying related plant fossils. Applying routine SEM, LM, and MicroCT technologies, we document a fossil flower bud, Florigerminis jurassica gen. et sp. nov., from the Jurassic of Inner Mongolia, China. This fossil includes not only a leafy shoot but also physically connected fruit and flower bud. The developmentally interpolated existence of a blooming flower between the flower bud and mature fruit in Florigerminis suggests that angiosperm flowers were present in the Jurassic, in agreement with recent botanical progress. Florigerminis jurassica underscores the presence of angiosperms in the Jurassic and demands a re-thinking on angiosperm evolution.

Academic vs. Biological Age in Research on Academic Careers: A Large-scale Study with Implications for Scientifically Developing Systems

Biological age is an important sociodemographic factor in studies on academic careers (research productivity, scholarly impact, and collaboration patterns). It is assumed that the academic age, or the time elapsed from the first publication, is a good proxy for biological age. In this study, we analyze the limitations of the proxy in academic career studies, using as an example the entire population of Polish academic scientists visible in the last decade in global science and holding at least a PhD (N = 20,569). The proxy works well for science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) disciplines; however, for non-STEMM disciplines (particularly for humanities and social sciences), it has a dramatically worse performance. This negative conclusion is particularly important for systems that have only become recently visible in global academic journals. The micro-level data suggest a delayed participation of social scientists and humanists in global science networks, with practical implications for predicting biological age from academic age. We calculate correlation coefficients, present contingency analysis of academic career stages with academic positions and age groups, and create a linear multivariate regression model. Our research suggests that in scientifically developing countries, academic age as a proxy for biological age must be used more cautiously than in advanced countries: ideally, it must be used only for STEMM disciplines.

Trait–Abundance Relationships of Annual Ephemerals in Response to Nitrogen Addition in Gurbantunggut Desert

Understanding the effect of nitrogen addition on species trait–abundance relationships is one of the central focuses of community ecology and can offer us insights into the mechanisms of community assembly under atmospheric nitrogen deposition. However, few studies have focused on desert ecosystems. In this study, we measured the abundance and ecological stoichiometric traits, leaf carbon content (LCC), nitrogen content (LNC), and phosphorus content (LPC) for all annual ephemerals in all plots subjected to nitrogen addition in early spring in Gurbantunggut Desert, northern Xinjiang, China. We found a significant relationship between traits (LNC, N:P, and C:N) and abundance, indicating that ecological stoichiometry is a good proxy for explaining and predicting species abundance. We further found that significant trait–abundance relationships still existed under different nitrogen addition levels. The result suggests that trait-based niche-assembly theory plays an important role in determining species abundance under atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

Phenotype-tissue expression and exploration (PTEE) resource facilitates the choice of tissue for RNA-seq-based clinical genetics studies

Background RNA-seq emerges as a valuable method for clinical genetics. The transcriptome is “dynamic” and tissue-specific, but typically the probed tissues to analyze (TA) are different from the tissue of interest (TI) based on pathophysiology. Results We developed Phenotype-Tissue Expression and Exploration (PTEE), a tool to facilitate the decision about the most suitable TA for RNA-seq. We integrated phenotype-annotated genes, used 54 tissues from GTEx to perform correlation analyses and identify expressed genes and transcripts between TAs and TIs. We identified skeletal muscle as the most appropriate TA to inquire for cardiac arrhythmia genes and skin as a good proxy to study neurodevelopmental disorders. We also explored RNA-seq limitations and show that on-off switching of gene expression during ontogenesis or circadian rhythm can cause blind spots for RNA-seq-based analyses. Conclusions PTEE aids the identification of tissues suitable for RNA-seq for a given pathology to increase the success rate of diagnosis and gene discovery. PTEE is freely available at https://bioinf.eva.mpg.de/PTEE/

Worklife and Unemployment: A New Consideration

Do traditional two-state worklife estimates need adjustment for unemployment? To answer, an augmented three-state model classifies individuals as either 1) employed; 2) unemployed; or 3) inactive but not marginally attached. Periods of unemployment may reduce worklives; however, removal of those marginally attached or discouraged from the inactive state raises worklives. The three-state model results are compared to worklife estimates from the same initial data using the traditional two-state model. Results show that in many cases, the two-state model results are a good proxy for the three-state results that control for unemployment.

Higher Trimethylamine- N -Oxide Plasma Levels with Increasing Age Are Mediated by Diet and Trimethylamine-Forming Bacteria

Many cohort studies have investigated the link between diet and plasma TMAO levels, reporting incongruent results, while gut microbiota were only recently included into analyses. In these studies, taxonomic data were recorded that are not a good proxy for TMA formation, as specific members of various taxa exhibit genes catalyzing this reaction, demanding function-based technologies for accurate quantification of TMA-synthesizing bacteria.