scholarly journals RISK FORECAST SYSTEM FOR MOORED SHIPS

2020 ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Liliana PINHEIRO ◽  
Conceicao FORTES ◽  
Maria Teresa REIS ◽  
Joao SANTOS ◽  
Carlos GUEDES SOARES
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Mooring Forces ◽  
Risk Forecast

Port terminals downtimes lead to large economic losses and largely affect the port's overall competitiveness. In the majority of cases, port activities such as ships' approach maneuvers and loading/unloading operations, are conditioned or suspended, based solely on weather or wave forecasts. These forecasts do not always result in effective hazardous conditions for the ships. Additionally, moored ships often experience problems of excessive movements and mooring forces in apparent good weather conditions. If, instead, one could forecast the ships' movements and mooring forces, risk assessment would be much more accurate. This would allow selecting an appropriate reinforced mooring arrangement and thus minimizing effective terminal downtime. In this paper, the development of a risk forecast system for moored ships, that takes into account all of the moored ship's system, is detailed and an illustration on how it applies to real ports is presented.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/ugDN9Tqno3E

scholarly journals Risk Analysis and Management of Moored Ships in Ports

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liliana V. Pinheiro ◽  
Conceição J. E. M. Fortes ◽  
João A. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Management ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Modular System ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Sea Waves ◽  
Bad Weather ◽  
Port Areas

The risks associated with mooring of ships are a major concern for port and maritime authorities. Sea waves and extreme weather conditions can lead to excessive movements of vessels and mooring loads affecting the safety of ships, cargo, passengers, crew or port infrastructures. Normally, port activities such as ships’ approach manoeuvres and loading/unloading operations, are conditioned or suspended based solely on weather or wave forecasts, causing large economic losses. Nevertheless, it has been shown that some of the most hazardous events with moored ships happen on days with mild sea and wind conditions, being the culprit long waves and resonance phenomena. Bad weather conditions can be managed with an appropriate or reinforced mooring arrangement. A correct risk assessment must be based on the movements of the ship and on the mooring loads, taking into account all the moored ship’s system. In this paper, the development of a forecast and warning system based on the assessment of risks associated with moored ships in port areas, SWAMS ALERT, is detailed. This modular system can be scaled and adapted to any port, providing decision-makers with accurate and complete information on the behaviour of moored ships, movements and mooring loads, allowing a better planning and integrated management of port areas.

Socioeconomic Clustering in Seismic Risk Assessment of Urban Housing Stock

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 619-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S.R. Prasad ◽  
Yogendra Singh ◽  
Amir M. Kaynia ◽  
Conrad Lindholm
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Urban Habitat ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment

A seismic risk assessment methodology based on socioeconomic clustering of urban habitat is presented in this paper. In this methodology, the city is divided into different housing clusters based on socioeconomic level of occupants, representing reasonably uniform seismic risk. It makes an efficient utilization of high resolution satellite data and stratified random sample survey to develop the building stock database. Ten different classes of socioeconomic clusters found in Indian cities are defined and 34 model building types (MBTs) prevalent on the Indian subcontinent have been identified and compared with the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) scale, European macroseismic scale (EMS), parameterless scale of seismic intensity (PSI), and HAZUS classifications. Lower and upper bound damage probability matrices (DPMs) are estimated, based on the MSK and EMS intensity scales and experience from past earthquakes in India. A case study of Dehradun, a city in the foothills of Himalayas, is presented. The risk estimates using the estimated DPMs have been compared with those obtained using the PSI scale. It has been observed that poorer people are subjected to higher seismic risk, both in terms of casualties and in terms of percent economic losses.

scholarly journals VALIDATION OF RISK INDICATORS IN ASSESSING THE SAFETY OF ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT BOILER HOUSE IN THUNDERSTORM

Fire Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 24-31
Author(s):  
Yu. Rudyk ◽  
O. Nazarovets ◽  
I. Golovatchuk ◽  
N. Beznos
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Electrical Equipment ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Lightning Protection ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Boiler Environment

Introduction. Today requires the introduction and arrangement of modern enterprises automation of the technological process using various electronic and electrical equipment. The breakdown of one sensor leads to a stoppage of the technical process and thousands of losses. This equipment is sensitive to impulse overvoltages that occur for various reasons, as well as when hit by lightning. There is a misconception that the danger of lightning arises only when struck directly, forgetting about the socalled secondary phenomena, namely electromagnetic and electrostatic pulses. Pulse overvoltage is a short-term increase in voltage above the allowable value. Lightning protection systems are designed and designed to protect objects from dangerous lightning.Purpose. Given the automation of the process and the saturation of boilers with electronic and electrical equipment, there is a high risk of lightning and high potentials, which can lead to large-scale accidents. The purpose of this article is to validate the risk indicators for the boiler environment that occur during a thunderstorm.Methods. The use of various methods of calculation, assessment and ordering of risks during the design and layout of the system allows to implementation system lightning protection of buildings, equipment and people. General principles of risk assessment for the boiler environment must take into account: risk and determine the need for protection; the contribution of various risk components to the overall risk; the effect of various protection measures to reduce risk; selection of protection measures taking into account their economic efficiency.Results. Neglecting the high risk of a dangerous event leads to excessive damage and m irreparable losses, with which a person or community will not be able to achieve sustainable development. Therefore, it is a comprehensive, systematic approach to achieving safety, starting from the assessment stage, should take into account both the characteristics of the hazard, including a fire in the relevant facilities, and personal, the individual risk of death or injury. Lightning is an unpredictable natural event, no one in the world fully understands the mechanism of lightning and it is impossible to provide 100% protection under any circumstances under any standardization. For this purpose, the following calculations are given: loss of human life, including injuries; loss of the ability to provide public services; losses of cultural heritage and economic value of the building (structure) and economic losses required for the installation and operation of the system. Based on the obtained data, it is seen how the reduction of each risk is achieved depending on the proposed solution and the economic effect in general.Conclusion. Statistics on deaths and injuries from lightning hazards, losses from damage to property, buildings and struc-tures confirm that in risk assessment, which is standardized in DSTU EN 62305-2, it is necessary to introduce a methodology that would meet the conditions of Ukraine. The arrangement of the lightning protection system depends on the risk assessment, the reaction of the owner, the influence of control bodies. Therefore, it is important to decide on fire protection measures in lightning risk assessment procedures, but it can also be taken regardless of the results of the risk assessment where there is a desire to avoid unacceptable risk. Equipment that is often associated with two different services, e.g. power lines and data lines suffer a lot of surge damage. This case is not covered by the RX risk component. However, appropriate protection measures can be selected and established (see IEC 62305-4).

Reference on Mycotoxins Occurrence, Prevalence, and Risk Assessment in Food Systems

2019 ◽  
pp. 294-343
Author(s):  
Griffiths Atungulu ◽  
Zeinab Mohammadi-Shad
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Filamentous Fungi ◽  
Human Exposure ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Animal Products ◽  
Food And Feed ◽  
Feed Safety ◽  
And Storage ◽  
Food And Feed Safety

Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxins that are produced by different filamentous fungi genera such as Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium, etc. The word mycotoxin literally is derived from Greek word “myke” meaning fungus and “toxicum” meaning toxin. These contaminants can develop on different food and feed commodities during different stages including pre-harvest, harvest, and storage. Mycotoxins are of concern because their outbreak result in animal and human diseases and economic losses. It has been estimated that global post-harvest losses are approximately at 50%. Human exposure to mycotoxins is typically through consumption of contaminated agricultural products or indirectly by consumption of animal products containing mycotoxins or their metabolites. The chapter provides the latest information on mycotoxin issues and challenges related to food and feed safety.

scholarly journals Research Design of Mobile Based Decision Support for Early Flood Warning System

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Mohd Faizal Omar ◽  
Mohd Nasrun Mohd Nawi ◽  
Jastini Mohd Jamil ◽  
Ani Munirah Mohamad ◽  
Saslina Kamaruddin
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Architectural Design ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment

Flooding has become one of the most rapidly growing types of natural disaster that has spread around the globe. It is is one of the major natural hazards in many countries and mostly affected in the low-lying or flood prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. In this paper, we demonstrate our research design for mobile based decision support of Flood Early Warning System (FEWS). We outlined four research objectives. Firstly, critical criteria for flood risk assessment will be identified and the second step will involve develop measurement model for relative flood risk using Geographic Information System (GIS), Multi Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and data mining technique. In the third objectives, the holistic architectural design is develop by incorporating the communication technology and other related ICT requirements for the mobile decision support. The fourth objective is to validate the mathematical model and architectural design. Case study approach is chosen in order to understand the flood event and validate the decision support model. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. It is anticipates that by integrating of mathematical model, GIS and mobile application in flood risk assessment could provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, evacuation, communication. The decision support design from this study is perhaps to improve the warning system and contribute to reduction of casualties.

scholarly journals Flood Risk Assessment for the Long-Term Strategic Planning Considering the Placement of Industrial Parks in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrich Grežo ◽  
Matej Močko ◽  
Martin Izsóff ◽  
Gréta Vrbičanová ◽  
František Petrovič ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Historical Maps ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Industrial Parks ◽  
Flood Maps

The intention of the article is to demonstrate how data from historical maps might be applied in the process of flood risk assessment in peri-urban zones located in floodplains and be complementary datasets to the national flood maps. The research took place in two industrial parks near the rivers Žitava and Nitra in the town of Vráble (the oldest industrial park in Slovakia) and the city of Nitra (one of the largest industrial parks in Slovakia, which is still under construction concerning the Jaguar Land Rover facility). The historical maps from the latter half of the 18th and 19th centuries and from the 1950s of the 20th century, as well as the field data on floods gained with the GNSSS receiver in 2010 and the Q100 flood line of the national flood maps (2017), were superposed in geographic information systems. The flood map consists of water flow simulation by a mathematical hydrodynamic model which is valid only for the current watercourse. The comparison of historical datasets with current data indicated various transformations and shifts of the riverbanks over the last 250 years. The results proved that the industrial parks were built up on traditionally and extensively used meadows and pastures through which branched rivers flowed in the past. Recent industrial constructions intensified the use of both territories and led to the modifications of riverbeds and shortening of the watercourse length. Consequently, the river flow energy increased, and floods occurred during torrential events in 2010. If historical maps were respected in the creation of the flood maps, the planned construction of industrial parks in floodplains could be limited or forbidden in the spatial planning documentation. This study confirmed that the flood modelling using the Q100 flood lines does not provide sufficient arguments for investment development groups, and flood maps might be supplied with the data derived from historical maps. The proposed methodology represents a simple, low cost, and effective way of identifying possible flood-prone areas and preventing economic losses and other damages.

Prediction of Power Plant Exposure to Economic Losses Through a Property Risk Assessment Methodology

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. J. Orme ◽  
M. Venturini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Maximum Loss ◽  
Probable Maximum Loss

In this paper, a procedure for Risk Assessment, which makes use of two risk indices (PML - Probable Maximum Loss and MFL - Maximum Foreseeable Loss) is applied to power plants to evaluate potential economic losses due to risk exposure for two different loss scenarios (probable and worst-case). The paper is mainly focused on Property Insurance aspects, though Boiler and Machinery Insurance and business interruption are also addressed. First, the procedure is applied to provide a prediction of probable and maximum loss as a function of power output. The results allow an estimate of whether the adoption of risk assessment procedures and devices allows an actual payback for plant owners. Second, the economic loss predicted through the risk assessment procedure is compared against real power plant loss values, taken from published data.

scholarly journals An Integrated Approach for the Simulation Modeling and Risk Assessment of Coastal Flooding

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2076
Author(s):  
Yazhi Zheng ◽  
Hai Sun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
Ca Model

The evaluation of storm surge flood risk is vital to disaster management and planning at national, regional and local levels, particularly in coastal areas that are affected more severely by storm surges. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method that includes two modules for the simulation modeling and risk assessment of coastal flooding. One is a hydrodynamic module for simulating the process of the flood inundation coastal inundation arising from storm surge, which is based on a cellular automata (CA) model. The other is a risk assessment module for quantitatively estimating the economic loss by using the inundation data and land use data. The coastal areas of Pearl River estuary in China were taken as a case study. Simulation results are compared to experimental results from MIKE 21 and depth data from a social-media-based dataset, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the CA model. By analyzing flood risk, the flood area and the direct economic losses predicted are close to the actual case incurred, further demonstrating the computational reliability of the proposed method. Additionally, an automatic risk assessment platform is designed by integrating the two modules in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, facilitating a more efficient and faster simulation of coastal flooding. The platform can provide the governments as well as citizens of coastal areas with user-friendly, real-time graphics for coastal flood disaster preparation, warning, response and recovery.

scholarly journals Interrupted Wet Period (IWP) to Forecast the Aerial Alternaria in Potato Crops of A Limia (Spain)

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meno ◽  
Escuredo ◽  
Rodríguez-Flores ◽  
Seijo
Keyword(s):  
Early Blight ◽  
Potato Crop ◽  
Alternaria Solani ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Crop Cycle ◽  
Minimal Environmental Impact ◽  
Potato Crops

Potato early blight caused by Alternaria solani generates significant economic losses in crops worldwide. Forecasting the risk of infection on crops is indispensable for the management of the fungal disease, ensuring maximum economic benefit but with minimal environmental impact. This work aimed to calculate the interrupted wet periods (IWP) according to the climate conditions of A Limia (Northwest of Spain) to optimize the prediction against early blight in potatoes. The study was performed during nine crop cycles. The relative hourly humidity and Alternaria concentration in the crop environment were taken into account. Alternaria levels were monitored by aerobiological techniques using a LANZONI VPPS-2000 volumetric trap. The relationships between weather conditions and airborne Alternaria concentration were statistically analyzed using Spearman correlations. To establish the effectiveness of wetness periods, the first important Alternaria peak was taken into account in each crop cycle (with a concentration greater than 70 spores/m3). Considering the six interrupted wet periods of the system, it was possible to predict the first peak of Alternaria several days in advance (between 6 and 38 days), except in 2007 and 2018. Automated systems to predict the initiation of early blight in potato crop, such as interrupted wet periods, could be an effective basis for developing decision support systems. The incorporation of aerobiological data for the calculation of interrupted wet periods improved the results of this system.

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