crisis scenarios
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2022 ◽  
pp. 533-552
Author(s):  
Ioanna K. Lekea ◽  
Dimitrios G. Stamatelos

Cadets, in order to become pilots, apart from successfully passing their flight training program, need to also complete their academic education, where many technical subjects, such as aeronautics, exist. Cadets often face difficulties in comprehending certain concepts in the subject “aeronautics” as well as the applied link between aeronautics and flight safety. To this end, at the Hellenic Air Force Academy, an innovative educational tool is under development so as to facilitate students' understanding of the practical use of aeronautics and its impact on aircraft safety. An important aspect of the proposed educational tool is that it can be easily adopted into the pilots' flight training program and offer a complimentary training experience regarding mid-air crisis scenarios. The new educational tool is based on introducing in-class simulation and problem-based learning, thus combining theory and practice. The aim of this chapter is to describe the development of this educational tool and to demonstrate the way that it can be employed for academic and flight training purposes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Ross ◽  
Claudine Jaenichen

Infecting more than two hundred and nineteen million people internationally as of September 2021, SARS-Cov2 (COVID-19) remains a major health crisis despite the availability of vaccines in many countries and publicized guidance on effective preventative measures (WHO, 2021). To combat the spread of the virus, governments worldwide have found themselves relying on their ability to exert control over health behaviors in public and private spaces. Visual communication, which includes both graphics and text, are an integral component of how these behavioral advisories are communicated to the public. Authorities translate scientific information into digestible designs for the public to achieve effective understanding and actionable protective measures. How are governments presenting and assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19-related information? Are there opportunities to maximize communication and develop models using existing frameworks? This interdisciplinary literary review pairs three models of risk and crisis communication with an information design framework to analyze COVID-19 materials shared by international governing agencies. Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) blends two popular disaster mitigation approaches to create a model that considers all stages of disaster response (Reynolds and Seeger, 2007). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM; Lindell and Perry, 2012) and the Scenario Transition Model of Viewing and Reading (Jaenichen, 2017) highlight the importance of considering context when crafting communication to increase the likelihood of message comprehension under stressed circumstances. Design perspectives are incorporated through the semiological lens of Jacques Bertin’s research on effective visual compositions (Bertin, 1983). Graphics sampled from the websites of international governments are used to illustrate the importance of leveraging design and communication strategy when communicating about risk and crisis scenarios.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 7987
Author(s):  
Gustavo Carvalho Santos ◽  
Flavio Barboza ◽  
Antônio Cláudio Paschoarelli Veiga ◽  
Mateus Ferreira Silva

Ethanol is one of the most used fuels in Brazil, which is the second-largest producer of this biofuel in the world. The uncertainty of price direction in the future increases the risk for agents operating in this market and can affect a dependent price chain, such as food and gasoline. This paper uses the architecture of recurrent neural networks—Long short-term memory (LSTM)—to predict Brazilian ethanol spot prices for three horizon-times (12, 6 and 3 months ahead). The proposed model is compared to three benchmark algorithms: Random Forest, SVM Linear and RBF. We evaluate statistical measures such as MSE (Mean Squared Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and accuracy to assess the algorithm robustness. Our findings suggest LSTM outperforms the other techniques in regression, considering both MSE and MAPE but SVM Linear is better to identify price trends. Concerning predictions per se, all errors increase during the pandemic period, reinforcing the challenge to identify patterns in crisis scenarios.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Neuber ◽  
Antje Daniel ◽  
Beth Gharrity Gardner

Drawing on new survey data on protesters at the September 2020 Fridays for Future Global Climate Strike in Berlin and Vienna, this report examines protesters’ socio-de- mographic profiles, political engagement and attitudes before and after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The longitudinal patterns we find are largely consistent across the two cities. However, the results from Berlin point to a greater dynamic in the sense of a transformation of FFF to a broader youth movement as well as a more marked increase in protesters’ institutional trust and self-efficacy. Among protesters in both cities we find indications of dissonance between positive perceptions about the government’s capacity to take scientifically-informed policy action in crisis scenarios (i.e., Covid-19) and con- cerns that such actions will not be adequately applied to the climate crisis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 353-360
Author(s):  
Claudio Guidotti ◽  
Damiano Ricci

Ongoing developments in threats to security and public order demand a thorough analysis of the approaches currently used to avoid and resolve crisis situations, in particular when they relate to non-conventional CBRNe incidents. The ability to respond rapidly and efficiently to an unexpected situation requires an extensive knowledge of the CBRNe threats and the display of management resources to overcome the emergency phases. A CBRN advisor must have the ability to determine the consequences of a CBRN situation in any given context, in order to suggest the most favorable paths to emerge from the crisis to the decisional leader/manager. In this report we thoroughly explored, from the CBRN awareness point of view, a successful response to the emergency management of the Regional Forensic Police Centre of Firenze, using a range of instruments often related solely to the private business dimension, such as "Lean thinking approach" or the SWOT analysis, in order to exit the crisis phase mitigating the expected damages. Whit this research the two authors confirmed that correct management of a CBRN emergency cannot be entrusted to good will alone, but requires careful planning, in-depth knowledge of the crisis and managerial organization of events and resources.


2021 ◽  
pp. 146511652110356
Author(s):  
Alexia Katsanidou ◽  
Ann-Kathrin Reinl ◽  
Christina Eder

After more than a decade of consecutive crises, the issue of transnational solidarity is becoming increasingly relevant for the European Union. This research note compares the current coronavirus disease-2019 crisis to previous ones and investigates the willingness of European Union citizens to show solidarity towards fellow member states. We test the influence of socio-political attitudes of citizens on solidarity preferences in three crisis scenarios. We analyse Greece and Germany as cases differently affected by the past decade's crises and cases that chose different crisis management strategies when facing the novel virus. Our findings indicate that solidarity is highest in a pandemic, while for all crisis scenarios it is higher in Greece than in Germany. Despite variations in the degree of solidarity associated relationships with socio-political attitudes remain consistent.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Orlando E. Contreras-Pacheco ◽  
Cyrlene Claasen ◽  
Fernando J. Garrigós-Simón

Purpose: This work analyzes how decoupling is used by offending companies in response to environmental crisis incidents in the Latin American context. Ethical implications and its links to legitimacy are considered.Design/methodology/approach: The research relies on a multi-case study approach, where four major environmental incidents involving four natural resource companies in Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina are analyzed. By examining public sources, the crisis communication processes performed by these companies are studied in order to allow for the linking of theory and practice.Findings: Results obtained suggest that, in an attempt to defend their legitimacy, companies deliberately conveyed untruthful messages and decoupled their communication in crisis from reality, resulting in ethical concerns for the practice of both crisis management and crisis communication.Research limitations/implications: By emphasizing the link between legitimacy and communication in crisis scenarios, the study illustrates how decoupling (i.e., untruthful communication practices) can be performed as a crisis management strategy. However, due the constraints of case studies, it is acknowledged that the paper has limitations for generalization.Originality/value: This work identifies four different decoupling-based crisis communication strategies performed by companies, and the way these are accompanied with secondary strategies. Furthermore, by focusing on Latin America, the study reflects the potential impact that the geographical context may have on the company’s crisis communication strategy and ultimately its legitimacy.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Durugbo ◽  
Soud M. Almahamid ◽  
Lulwa H. Budalamah ◽  
Odeh R. Al-Jayyousi ◽  
Batoul BendiMerad

PurposeCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic with unique regional logistics management (RLM) challenges to respond to the chaos created by the crisis and to restore normality for operations and supply chains in home nations. The purpose of this article is to explore RLM in times of crisis from the perspective of public authorities responsible for combating the COVID-19 pandemic. The article also discusses the significance of crisis-driven RLM for humanitarian logistics and supply chain (HLSC) management.Design/methodology/approachGrounded on an inductive case study logic and guided by a constructivist perspective, this research involves semi-structured interviews with 15 managers and strategists responsible for the RLM of COVID-19 to capture lessons learnt so far from mitigating the transmission and spread of COVID-19. Underpinning the research is a conceptual RLM model premised on coordination, communication, and containment mechanisms (the 3Cs of crisis-driven logistics), as crisis response.FindingsThe study finds that the triggering of regional logistics in times of crisis for the COVID-19 case involves taskforce teams with centralisation for crisis readiness, information infrastructure with digitalisation for crisis protocols, and capacity calculations with orchestration for crisis scenarios. The study also finds that navigating the challenges for the 3Cs of crisis-driven logistics entails forward-thinking leadership for culture-based commitments, first-hand clarity for compliance-based campaigns, and far-reaching solidarity for compassion-based contributions.Originality/valueThis article addresses the gap in knowledge on RLM and potential priorities that underpin crisis-driven RLM strategies for HLSCs. The research is original in its argument for regional perspectives on logistics strategies that contribute to the “viability” and “integrity” of HLSCs. The research also uniquely focuses on RLM in times of crisis and proposes a conceptual RLM model of strategies for enhancing HLSCs.


Author(s):  
J. J. Kohler ◽  
◽  
E. Fragnière ◽  
D. Konstantas ◽  
E. Viganò

The notion of critical infrastructure represents for states a vital asset for the functioning of society and the economy. These critical infrastructures cover many areas such as transportation, electricity, hospitals, and recently telecommunications which are taking more and more place in our economies due to the digitalization of our society. Business Continuity Plans (BCP) are often an obligation here to ensure the fastest possible recovery of these critical infrastructures in the event of a crisis. However, the scenarios that allow simulation exercises to be carried out remain very "logistically" oriented, while critical infrastructures linked in general to the digitization of the economy are poorly prepared for a major critical incident. To compensate for these weaknesses in the development of crisis scenarios linked to digitalization, we take the case of critical digital banking infrastructures and use counterfactual thinking to develop a crisis scenario that takes better account of the entire dematerialization dimension inherent in them.


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