The EU self-surplus puzzle: an indication of VAT fraud?

The world runs a trade surplus with itself: the reported values of exports exceed the reported values of imports. This is logically impossible but a well-known empirical fact. Less well-known is the fact that, in recent years, the EU has a trade surplus with itself that amounts to more than 80% of the global surplus. In this paper, we show that this EU self-surplus is worth a striking 307 billion Euro in 2018, equaling 1.9% of the Union’s GDP, which persists both in goods and services trade accounts. We further examine discrepancies in goods and services trade accounts at the country and country pair level. These are strongest between neighboring countries and exist for members of the Euro Area as well as non-members. Around the 2004 Eastern Enlargement, the EU self-surplus quadrupled. Our estimations suggest that Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Sweden are EU Members with the most inaccurate statistical regimes. We observe systematic biases which unlikely root in random measurement error. By contrast, we suspect that a large fraction of the EU’s self-surplus puzzle seems related to fraud in value added tax (VAT). VAT exemptions for exporters provide strong incentives for the over-declaration of true export values. The resulting loss in tax income could amount to as much as 64 billion Euro per year.

Test-retest Reliability of the Korean Matrix Sentence-in-noise Recognition in Sound-field Testing Condition

Purpose: This study aimed to measure the test-retest reliability of the Korean Matrix sentence-in-noise test in a sound-field testing condition.Methods: Fifty-five listeners with normal hearing participated. The sound-field speech-in-noise test was administered with a front loudspeaker by presenting noise at a fixed level (65 dB SPL) while adaptively adjusting the sentence level based on the listener’s response. The speech reception thresholds (SRTs) corresponding to 50% sentence-in-noise intelligibility were obtained using speech-shaped noise (SSN), International Collegium of Rehabilitative Audiology (ICRA) noise, and International Speech Test Signal (ISTS) noise. For the test-retest reliability, each subject was tested twice in a 2-week interval. The test-retest reliabilities were judged by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), the minimal detectable change (MDC) values, and Bland-Altman plots.Results: The test-retest reliabilities of the Korean Matrix sentence test were good (ICC, 0.84~0.86) across SSN, ICRA, ISTS noises. The MDC was 0.92 dB SNR for SSN and 2.83 and 2.98 dB SNR for ICRA and ISTS, indicating the random measurement error varied across the types of noise.Conclusion: The Korean Matrix sentence-in-noise test can be used as a reliable tool to assess speech-in-noise intelligibility in sound-field testing condition. Further study across various sessions would strengthen the present finding.

Practice Effects, Test–Retest Reliability, and Minimal Detectable Change of the Ruff 2 and 7 Selective Attention Test in Patients with Schizophrenia

Background: The Ruff 2 and 7 Selective Attention Test (RSAT) is designed to measure selective attention. It tests automatic detection speed (ADS), automatic detection errors (ADE), automatic detection accuracy (ADA), controlled search speed (CSS), controlled search errors (CSE), and controlled search accuracy (CSA). The purpose of this study was to examine the test–retest reliability, practice effect, and minimum detectable change (MDC) of the RSAT in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: A total of 101 patients with schizophrenia completed the RSAT twice at a 4-week interval. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), paired t test, and effect size were used to examine the test–retest reliability and practice effect. The standard error of measurement (SEM) and MDC were calculated. Results: The difference scores between the two assessments were significant in all the indexes. The absolute effect sizes were 0.14 to 0.30. The ICCs of the RSAT ranged from 0.69 to 0.91. The MDC% in the indexes of ADS, ADA, and CSA of the RSAT were <30%. Conclusions: The RSAT is reliable for assessing selective attention in patients with schizophrenia. The RSAT has good to excellent test–retest reliability, a trivial to small practice effect, and indexes of ADS, ADA, and CSA, representing acceptable random measurement error.

Test–Retest Reliability of Social Cognition Screening Questionnaire–Taiwan Version in People With Schizophrenia

Date Presented 04/19/21 The Social Cognition Screening Questionnaire–Taiwan version (SCSQT) was designed to assess multiple domains of social cognition in people with schizophrenia in Taiwan. The SCSQT contains five subscales and provides estimates of the core domains of mentalizing and social perception and an overall social cognition score. Our validation of SCSQT indicated that the SCSQT had good test–retest reliability, acceptable random measurement error, and negligible practice effects. Primary Author and Speaker: Shu-Chun Lee Additional Authors and Speakers: Trudy Mallinson Contributing Authors: Alison M. Cogan, Ann Guernon, Katherine O'Brien, and Piper Hansen

Test–retest reliability and criterion-related validity of Shih–Hsu test of attention between people with and without schizophrenia

Introduction The “Shih–Hsu Test of Attention” (SHTA) is an iPad-based attention assessment tool developed in recent years by occupational therapists and has acceptable criterion-related validity and high test–retest reliability in preliminary application. This research project explores the criterion-related validity and test–retest reliability of SHTA between people with and without schizophrenia. Method The participants were 76 adults with schizophrenia aged 20–64 years, and 66 adults without diagnosed mental illness aged 20–64 years were recruited in this study on a voluntary basis. Each participant was assessed twice. The participants completed both the SHTA and Chu’s Attention Test (CAT) in the first test and the SHTA after 3 weeks. Findings Analytical results indicate that the SHTA has satisfactory test–retest reliability (ICC = 0.67) and criterion-related validity (γ = 0.29, p < 0.05*) for adults with schizophrenia and has high test–retest reliability (ICC = 0.90) and criterion-related validity (γ = 0.25, p < 0.05*) for adults without diagnosed mental illness. The MDC% value for the subjects without diagnosed mental illness was 12.1%, indicating acceptable random measurement error. Conclusion Our preliminary findings show that the iPad-based attention assessment tool, SHTA, has satisfactory criterion-related validity and test–retest reliability, supporting the future application of SHTA as an attention assessment tool.

Accuracy of selected methods of measurement of tree heights

In this paper, the possibilities of using stereophotogrammetry methods for measurements using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for the conditions of a mature pine stand with uneven density are examined. Here, we carried out a comparison of measurements using altimeters and remote sensing data collected with a UAV optical camera. In particular, the height of growing trees was estimated by three different field-based devices and applying the three methods of data collection and processing with UAVs. Specifically, one method implied the direct measurements using on-board UAV equipment. The following two methods are based on the data provided by the stereophotogrammetrical approach, while the aerial images for that were collected using a UAV optical camera. In particular, there was a modeling of the points cloud from one-sided vertical shooting of sample trees and determination of height of trees from digital canopy height model (CHM) from data of aerial photography of horizontal spans over a stand. Our investigation confirmed the highest accuracy of laser measuring tools among the ground measuring devices used in research. Respective value of the average random measurement error was less than 3 % (0.88 m). Among the results obtained from the analysis of the original data collected by UAVs, the best method was to utilize the CHM, namely, the average random error was less than 2% (0.64 m). This exceeds the accuracy of laser altimeter measurements 33 %. Thus, this method of measuring height in pine stands meets the standards of accuracy in determining the height for production assessment, according to the “Inventory guidelines for the forest fund of Ukraine”, and can be used for survey, inventory, forest management and other works related to forestry and monitoring the changes in forest ecosystems.

Evaluating Satellite Capability in Supporting Traditional Air Quality Monitoring for the Finnish Ministry of the Environment

&lt;p&gt;We present the results of two projects completed for the Finnish Ministry of the Environment that assessed the capability of satellites in supporting traditional in situ air quality (AQ) measurements. These projects analysed the correlation of co-located NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI, measuring in molec./cm&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) and traditional air quality stations (measuring in &amp;#181;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;) in Finland and Europe in 2018 and 2019, and used the results to estimate annual mean ground-level NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations in Finland&amp;#8217;s 14 different AQ monitoring regions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We find that the correlation is dependent on the location of the AQ station, with city stations having a higher correlation than rural background stations. This is expected, as the variability of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; levels in Finnish rural areas is usually within TROPOMI&amp;#8217;s random measurement error. We also find that the estimated annual mean regional ground level NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations compare well to the in situ measurements, as the associated uncertainties provide reliable upper estimates for ground level concentrations. These estimates were used to establish that annual NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations were below the EU limit in two AQ monitoring regions with no active ground stations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We also analyse TROPOMI&amp;#8217;s and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument&amp;#8217;s (OMI) ability to study the spatial distribution of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; over Finland using gridded maps. Oversampled TROPOMI measurements are able to distinguish relatively small sources such as roads, airports and refineries, and the difference in concentrations between weekdays and weekends. TROPOMI is also able to detect emissions from different sources of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; such as cities, mining sites and industrial areas. Long time series measurements from OMI show decreasing NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; levels over Finland between 2005 and 2018.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The studies were conducted on behalf of the Finnish Ministry of the Environment, and showcase how satellite measurements can be used to supplement traditional air quality measurements in areas with poor ground station coverage. Launched in 2017, TROPOMI is currently the highest-resolution air quality sensing satellite, and its societal uses are only beginning to be realised. Future Sentinel missions, especially the geosynchronous Sentinel-4, will further extend satellite air quality monitoring capabilities and enable continuous daytime observations in cloud-free conditions.&lt;/p&gt;

Sympathy, Blame, and Just Allocation of Health Costs Entailed by Risky Conventional Lifestyles

How does the general public feel about people suffering from lifestyle related conditions, and what do they see as a socially just division health costs for these conditions? Using data from random, nationwide surveys of Australians, 1989-2001 (n=8031) my structural equation model with multiple-item measurement and corrections for attenuation due to random measurement error predicts respondents’ ideal division of medical payment responsibility. The only significant sociodemographic influence is education, which inclines people towards governmental financial responsibility. Cultural and social-psychological factors have large effects. A net time trend favors individual responsibility. Blaming sufferers is strongly associated with favoring individual responsibility. By contrast, people who sympathize with the sufferers tend to favor government payments. Political party preference also matters: Partisans of the main conservative party tend to support individual responsibility. There are clear implications for the current COVID-19 epidemic, especially with regards to “social distancing” behavior.

Analysis of the random measurement error of areal 3D coordinate measurements exclusively based on measurement repetitions

The measurement uncertainty characteristics of a measurement system are an important parameter when evaluating the suitability of a certain measurement system for a specific measurement task. The measurement uncertainty can be calculated from observed measurement errors, which consist of both systematic and random components. While the unfavourable influence of systematic components can be compensated by calibration, random components are inherently not correctable. There are various measurement principles which are affected by different measurement error characteristics depending on specific properties of the measurement task, e. g. the optical surface properties of the measurement object when using fringe projection or the material properties when using industrial X-ray computed tomography. Thus, it can be helpful in certain scenarios if the spatial distribution of the acquisition quality as well as uncertainty characteristics on the captured surface of a certain measurement task can be found out. This article demonstrates a methodology to determine the random measurement error solely from a series of measurement repetitions without the need of additional information, e. g. a reference measurement or the nominal geometry of the examined part.