COLOMBIAN MILITARY TRANSFORMATION: STRATEGIC REALITY AND OVERCOMING RESISTANCES

After the signing of peace in Colombia, attention has been directed to the difficult process of implementing the agreements. This complex scenario has downplayed the problem of Colombian military transformation. The basis of that transformation, the Damasco doctrine, the, has encountered resistance within the Colombian Military Forces. Through the application of a process tracing method, we infer that there is a non-linear process, but in progress towards the fulfillment of the objectives of the doctrine. Thus, we identify three drivers that are making this transformation progress: a renewed confrontation with Venezuela; the changing nature of the domestic conflict; and the Colombia’s NATO global partner status.

Climate change and security in Canada

This article examines the implications of human-caused climate change for security in Canada. The first section outlines the current state of climate change, the second discusses climate change impacts on human security in Canada, and the third outlines four other areas of Canada’s national interests threatened by climate change: economic threats; Arctic threats; humanitarian crises at home and abroad; and the threat of domestic conflict. In the conclusion, I argue that climate change has clearly not been successfully “securitized” in Canada, despite the material threats it poses to human and national security, and outline directions for future research.

Nationally Representative Sample Shows an Increase in Domestic Conflict Early in the COVID-19 Pandemic

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 pandemic and associated social distancing increased stressors related to risk for domestic conflict but increases in domestic conflict early in the pandemic have yet to be studied in community samples. METHODS Increase in domestic conflict (verbal or physical fights) since the beginning of the pandemic was assessed in 1196 partnered and cohabitating respondents, drawn from a nationally representative sample, in May 2020. Chi-square tests and logistic regression analyses were used to estimate associations of demographic characteristics and financial worry with domestic conflict. RESULTS An increase in domestic conflict was reported by 10.6% (95% CI 7.7-13.4) of the sample. Domestic conflict increase was significantly associated with younger age, lower education, and financial worry. CONCLUSION Increases in domestic conflict were seen in certain vulnerable groups and in those who report financial worry. Policies ensuring financial stability, particularly early in the disaster conditions, could reduce domestic conflict during continued COVID-19 conditions or other disasters.

Conflict Externalization and the Quest for Peace: Theory and Case Evidence from Colombia

I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict “externalizes” (i.e. spreads to another country by creating an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a domestic conflict between a government and a rebel group has the potential to externalize. I show that the risk of externalization increases the likelihood of a peaceful outcome, but only if the government is sufficiently powerful relative to the rebels, the risk of externalization is sufficiently high, and the foreign actor who can intervene in the domestic conflict is sufficiently uninterested in material costs and benefits. I show how this model helps to understand the recent and successful peace process between the Colombian government and the country’s most powerful rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

MEDIATION AS A NEW TREND IN THE POLITICAL PROCESSES OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

This article is devoted to the issue of mediation in a multi-ethnic environment, which has a number of features, because even every domestic conflict can be colored in ethnic tones. The role of ethnic groups themselves is very important here, as well as the role of the Assembly of people of Kazakhstan, which performs mediation functions for reconciliation and building harmonious interethnic relations in the Republic of Kazakhstan.