scholarly journals China’s Rising Household Debt: A New Debt Trap?

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-578
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Household Borrowing

Household debt in China has risen rapidly in recent years, mostly driven by mortgages but also by ongoing financial deepening and liberalisation which facilitate economic rebalancing towards more consumption. Although the risks to financial stability do not seem large at the time of writing, the sharp rise in household debt has raised some concerns, as high household borrowing could increase macro-financial risks, particularly given the US-China trade tensions and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has resulted in weaker employment and export market. Rising household debt will add to medium- to long-term challenges for China’s domestic consumption and the financial sector. The authorities have so far implemented measures to lessen the risk of a sharp housing correction in the short-run.

scholarly journals Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (258) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Han ◽  
Emilia Jurzyk ◽  
Wei Guo ◽  
Yun He ◽  
Nadia Rendak
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Income Shocks ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Registry System ◽  
Future Consumption

High household indebtedness could constrain future consumption growth and increase financial stability risks. This paper uses household survey data to analyze both macroeconomic and finanical stability risks from the rapidly rising household debt in China. We find that rising household indebtedness could boost consumption in the short term, while reducing it in the medium-to-long term. By stress testing households’ debt repayment capacity, we find that low-income households are most vulnerable to adverse income shocks which could lead to signficant defaults. Containing these risks would call for a strengthening of systemic risk assessment and macroprudential policies of the household sector. Other policies include improving the credit registry system and establishing a well-functioning personal insolvency framework.

scholarly journals US–China Trade Disputes: Studying Long-Term Trade Patterns

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
K.V. Bhanu Murthy ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

US–China economic ties have expanded substantially since China began reforming its economy and liberalizing its trade regime in the late 1970s. Total US–China merchandise trade rose from $2 billion in 1979 (when China’s economic reforms began) to $636 billion in 2017. China is currently the United States’ largest merchandise trading partner, its third-largest export market, and its biggest source of imports. There are multiple areas of disagreement that preceded the trade war. One ground is that China is buying off American assets. It is also alleged that China violates US patent rights. It is also stated by United States that China has restrictions on US companies entering certain areas in production in China. The scale at which US–China trade patterns are changing and ownership patterns of both countries’ MNCs are changing results in a mystification of trade data due to intra-firm trade imports and exports. This may be a major reason why apparent trade patterns do not clearly serve as a guide for commenting on policy wars. This study examines the patterns in the US–China exports, mutual imports, and current account balances over a nearly 25-year period, to form a view about whether the trade war is justified. The general methodology in this paper has been to use a set of semi-log growth equations that enable comparison of various trade-related variables between the United States and China. The method focuses on the long-term patterns before and after global financial crisis (GFC), in the two countries, with the help of a standard dummy variable model. In conclusion, the US claims seem to be unfounded when studied through the lens of long-term trade patterns between the two countries. China’s export performance is much better. The United States’ dependence on imports from China has fallen drastically. Finally, the current balance of payments (BoP) of the United States continues to remain highly negative; whereas, in spite of the setback due to the GFC, China’s BoP position all along continues to be positive.

Long term US-China decoupling will hit US energy sales

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Project Costs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Markets

Subject Impact of the US-China tariffs on the energy market. Significance Global trade is slowing, and the US-China trade tariffs are exacerbating the slowdown. US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are finding alternative markets, but competitive pressures are likely to rise as both oil and LNG markets face oversupply. The tariffs on goods imported to the United States are also raising costs for the renewable and non-renewable sectors. Impacts US LNG producers could struggle to place cargoes as European gas storage approaches capacity. The large number of US offshore wind projects underway may be held back because the US-China tariffs are increasing project costs. Weak world trade and GDP growth is capping energy demand, offsetting supply worries and curbing oil price gains.

Taiwan’s Economy in 2019: Reaping Benefits from the US–China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 72-82
Author(s):  
Min-Hua CHIANG
Keyword(s):  
Ageing Population ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Business Operation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War

Taiwan’s economy expanded moderately by 2.71% in 2019 despite the ongoing US–China trade war. The growing inward investment made by Taiwanese firms with overseas business operation had underpinned Taiwan’s economy despite falling exports. While mounting investment inflows to Taiwan would continue to buttress the economy, the rapid spread of coronavirus could threaten its growth prospects in 2020. In the long run, Taiwan’s lack of free trade agreements may further constrain its external trade development. Taiwan’s rapidly ageing population, one of key demographic trends, presents another challenge to its long-term economic prosperity.

Subcontractors’ Dilemma: the Expansion of Taiwanese Firms 2002–2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-229
Author(s):  
Thung-Hong Lin ◽  
Bowei Hu
Keyword(s):  
Global Market ◽  
Industrial Upgrading ◽  
Cheap Labour ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Conflicts ◽  
Capital Intensive ◽  
Minimal Effort ◽  
Unbalanced Panel Data

Since the 1970s development studies have conveyed an impression of Taiwanese firms as being active small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) with flexibility to successfully survive in a competitive global market. On the contrary, we use the unbalanced panel data of 2,969 top manufacturers during 2002–2015 to explore why and how Taiwanese firms expanded their scale and scope of operations in the new century. Our findings indicate that Taiwanese subcontractors are caught in a dilemma between the expansion of operational scale in China and industrial upgrading in Taiwan. Scale expansion can exploit the large cheap labour pool in China with minimal effort for most smes but significantly reduces the firms’ profit rates. Industrial upgrading is capital-intensive and profitable for a few Taiwanese firms but challenging for most smes to attract long-term investment in research and development. The ‘subcontractors’ dilemma’ explains Taiwanese firms’ struggles for survive in the US–China trade conflicts.

Hong Kong’s Economy Navigating Turbulent Times

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
Chen LI
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
China Trade ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
The Us ◽  
Institutional Space ◽  
Annual Decline

Hong Kong’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2019 was estimated to register the first annual decline since 2009. The economic slowdown and recession in Hong Kong were driven by both weakening domestic and external demand, aggravated by local social unrest which had disrupted social stability, transportation and commerce. Hong Kong’s economic prospects hinge on how its sociopolitical situation and the US–China trade tensions will evolve. Despite short-term headwinds, Hong Kong’s competitiveness in the long term will likely remain strong if it maintains its unique institutional space and advantages in bridging mainland China and the rest of the global economy.

scholarly journals PROBLEMATIC ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY IN STEVEDORING COMPANIES

World Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (12(52)) ◽  
pp. 32-38
Author(s):  
Boiko M. O. ◽  
Gevrek Yu. S.
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Net Income ◽  
The Us ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology ◽  
Relevant Factors

The study is dedicated to identification of problematic aspects of financial risk assessment methodology on the example of stevedoring companies. In research established the list of issues for improvement the methodology of financial risk assessment both in theoretical and practical aspects. Formulated industry features of the stevedoring companies’ activity, relevant factors from the perspective of financial risk impact on results of activity, among which are distinguished: loss of net sales, exchange rate instability and decrease of financial stability. It was found that the loss of net income from the sale of state stevedoring companies of Ukraine occurred: due to the failure to fulfill the plan of cargo processing by reducing the number of the number of ship-measures and change of the nomenclature of cargo towards the less profitable and instability of the US dollar. Particular attention is paid to assessing the level of financial stability of state-owned stevedoring companies in Ukraine and identifies a downward trend in recent years. It is argued that the definition of factors that affect financial risks should be conducted using factor analysis, mathematical models that require comprehensive consideration of uncertainty factors and related to the peculiarities of stevedoring companies operation. The feasibility of drawing up a financial risk map and the options of management's response to their presence have been proved.

scholarly journals Vietnam-China Trade Relations and the Effects of the US-China Trade War

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quang Hiep
Keyword(s):  
Current Situation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Export Structure ◽  
Dependent Relationship ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trade Partners

By calculating the trade indexes (TII, RCA and IIT), mainly in the period 2001-2017, the article analyzes current situation of the dependent relationship and ability to complement each other on trade between Vietnam and China. The results show that Vietnam and China are increasingly becoming important trade partners of each other; Vietnam and China have a particular advantage in the export structure of its exports, showing the trade relations between the two countries are complementary to each other; and the level of intra-industry trade between Vietnam and China is quite high. The US - China trade war broke out will cause the  reversal of the global trade environment. However, in short term, the trade context of the Vietnam - China less affected by this tension. But in the long term, the sanctions are expanded to different sectors will can have unpredictable effects.

On the surveys of household debt in Poland

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (9) ◽  
pp. 5-26
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Wałęga ◽  
Grzegorz Wałęga
Keyword(s):  
Data Sources ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Household Surveys ◽  
Limited Extent ◽  
Consumer Debt ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Methodological Research ◽  
Household Borrowing ◽  
Long Term Survey

The current grow of household debt requires a new approach to household indebtedness surveys in Poland. The aim of the article is to present and compare research methodologies in the field of consumer debt. The research is focused on presenting the theoretical context of indebtedness, and subsequently on the main aspects of methodological research on household borrowing at the microeconomic level. Selected international and national household surveys as well as data sources available in Poland regarding household indebtedness were discussed and compared. The review of available data sources on household indebtedness indicates that, compared to surveys in other countries, data on the microeconomic level are collected to a limited extent in Poland. The sources of these data can be treated complementary, however this is an obstacle in terms of both their comparability and access to them. This indicates the lack of a single long-term survey on the issue of household debt in Poland. Recommendations for directional changes in research on discussed issues conducted in Poland were formulated in the conclusion.

scholarly journals Does US-China Trade War Matter on ASEAN Stock Market: Event-study Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Budi Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

The trade war between the US and China by imposing tariffs has the potential to affect global financial stability. As the largest economy in the world, the US and China had been trading goods and services globally. Then, when these countries have retaliated, the tariff war will affect the global supply chain, international trade, economy, and the stock market. This research examined the effect of the US-China trade war on ASEAN stock prices using an event-study approach. The result shows that the ASEAN stock market has positive abnormal returns during pre-event period (12%). In contrast, ASEAN stock markets shifted to negative abnormal return (-7.4%) in the short-term window, indicating that the stock market is efficient. Stock price reflects the information from the market quickly. However, the impact of the trade war on the ASEAN stock market is insignificant.

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