Cytokine Profiles Associated With Worse Prognosis in a Hospitalized Peruvian COVID-19 Cohort

Cytokines, chemokines and growth factors present different expression profiles related to the prognosis of COVID-19. We analyzed clinical parameters and assessed the expression of these biomarkers in patients with different disease severity in a hospitalized Peruvian cohort to determine those associated with worse prognosis. We measured anti-spike IgG antibodies by ELISA and 30 cytokines by quantitative suspension array technology in 123 sera samples. We analyzed differences between patients with moderate, severe and fatal COVID-19 by logistic regression at baseline and in longitudinal samples. Significant differences were found among the clinical parameters: hemoglobin, neutrophils, lymphocytes and C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine and D-dimer levels. Higher anti-spike IgG antibody concentrations were associated to fatal patient outcomes. At hospitalization, IL-10, IL-6, MIP-1α, GM-CSF, MCP-1, IL-15, IL-5, IL1RA, TNFα and IL-8 levels were already increased in fatal patients´ group. Meanwhile, multivariable analysis revealed that increased GM-CSF, MCP-1, IL-15, and IL-8 values were associated with fatal outcomes. Moreover, longitudinal analysis identified IL-6 and MCP-1 as the main risk factors related to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In this Peruvian cohort we identified and validated biomarkers related to COVID-19 outcomes. Further studies are needed to identify novel criteria for stratification of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients at hospital entry. BackgroundIn the most severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, large numbers of innate and adaptive immune cells become activated and begin to produce pro-inflammatory cytokines, establishing an exacerbated feedback loop of inflammation.MethodsA total of 55 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Hospital Nacional Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen in Lima, Peru were enrolled during August-October 2020. Of these, 21 had moderate disease, 24 severe diseases and 10 died. We measured 30 cytokines and chemokines by quantitative suspension array technology and anti-spike IgG antibodies using a commercial ELISA. We evaluated these parameters in peripheral blood every 2-5 days until patient discharge or death. Patient information and clinical parameters related were obtained from the respective clinical histories.ResultsThe frequency of obesity differed among the 3 groups, being most frequent in patients who died. There were also significant differences in clinical parameters: hemoglobin, segmented neutrophils, lymphocytes,C-reactive protein, creatinine and D-dimer levels. Greater anti-spike IgG antibody concentrations were associated to fatal outcomes. In univariate analyses, higher baseline concentrations of IL-6, MIP-1α, GM-CSF, MCP-1, IL-15, IL-5, IL1RA, TNFα, IL-8 and IL-12p70 correlated with severity, while multivariable analysis showed that increased concentrations in 4 biomarkers (GM-CSF, MCP-1, IL-15, IL-8) were associated with fatal outcomes. Longitudinal analysis showed IL-6 (hazard ratio [HR] 6.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-28.7) and MCP-1 (HR 4.61, 95%CI 1.1-19.1) to be related to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.ConclusionsCytokine, chemokine and growth factor profiles were identified and validated related to severity and outcomes of COVID-19. Our findings may be useful to identify novel criteria for COVID-19 patient stratification at hospital entry.

Circulating lymphocyte subsets as promising biomarkers to identify septic patients at higher risk of unfavorable outcome

Background Early recognition of patients hospitalized for sepsis at higher risk of poor clinical outcome is a mandatory task and many studies suggested that indicators of the immune status may be useful for this purpose. We performed a retrospective, monocentric cohort study to evaluate whether lymphocyte subsets may be useful in predicting in-hospital mortality of septic patients. Methods Data of all consecutive patients with a diagnosis of sepsis at discharge and an available peripherical blood lymphocyte subset (CD4, CD8, CD16/CD56 and CD19) analysis at hospital entry were retrospectively collected between January 2015 and August 2018. Clinical characteristics of patients, past medical history and other laboratory parameters were also considered. Results Two-hundred-seventy-eight septic patients, 171 (61.5%) males, mean age 63.2 ± 19.6 years, were enrolled. Total counts of lymphocytes, CD4 T cells, CD8 T cells and B cells were found significantly lower in deceased than in surviving patients. At univariate analyses, CD4 T cells/µL (OR 0.99 for each incremental unit, 95%CI 0.99–1.10, p < 0.0001), age (OR 1.06, 95%CI 1.04–1.09, p < 0.0001), procalcitonin (OR 1.01, 95%CI 1.01–1.02, p < 0.0001) and female gender (OR 2.81, 95%CI 1.49–5.28, p = 0.001) were associated with in-hospital mortality. When a dichotomic threshold of < 400/µL for CD4 T cells as a dependent variable was considered in multivariate models, age (OR 1.04; 95%CI 1.01–1.09, p = 0.018); female gender (OR 3.18; 95%CI 1.40–7.20, p = 0.006), qSOFA (OR 4.00, 95%CI 1.84–8.67, p < 0.001) and CD4 T cells < 400/µL (OR 5.3; 95%CI 1.65–17.00, p = 0.005) were the independent predictors. Conclusions In adjunct to biomarkers routinely determined for the prediction of prognosis in sepsis, CD4 T lymphocytes, measured at hospital entry, may be useful in identifying patients at higher risk of in-hospital death.

TO019PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY AND HEMOCONCENTRATION DURING ACUTE HEART FAILURE

Background and Aims Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurring after diuretic treatment initiation for acute heart failure (AHF) is a common phenomenon, with an incidence estimated between 20 and 50% of AHF hospitalizations. Previous studies found that persistent AKI is associated with poor prognosis. Treatment-induced hemoconcentration is associated with improved prognosis, but several definitions previously used are not suited for clinical practice. Transient AKI, with or without hemoconcentration, is of unsettled prognosis. We aim to determine the independent prognostic value of transient AKI, persistent AKI and hemoconcentration in the context of AHF hospitalization, using practical definitions. Method Data were obtained from the Greater Paris University Hospitals (GPUH) Clinical Data Warehouse. Patients hospitalized for AHF in various GPUH units were included. AHF hospitalization was defined as hospitalization with at least one AHF ICD-10 code and at least one recorded furosemide administration. Bumetanide is rarely used in GPUH hospitals hence it was not considered. AKI in a period of 14 days following first furosemide administration was defined based on KDIGO guidelines. Hemoconcentration was defined as an increase in serum proteins ≥ 5 g/l during the same period. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine which characteristics were predictive of AKI. Cox regression of 100 days all-cause mortality using multiple confounders was performed to determine the prognostic value of transient AKI (&lt; 14 days), persistent AKI (≥ 14 days) and hemoconcentration. Patients with AKI upon hospital entry were excluded from regression analyses. AKI and hemoconcentration were treated as time-dependent covariates to adjust for immortality bias. Results Five hundred seventy nine patients were included. Among them, 529 had no AKI upon hospital entry and 513 had at least one recorded serum proteins and creatinine value following furosemide initiation. Median follow-up was 114 days. AKI in a period of 14 days following furosemide initiation occurred in 234 patients (40.4%). At baseline, patients in the AKI group more frequently suffered from chronic kidney disease or presented with clinical and echocardiographic signs of right heart failure. Independent predictors of AKI were arterial hypertension upon furosemide initiation (adjusted OR 1.86 [1.08 – 3.22]), elevated serum creatinine upon furosemide initiation (adjusted OR 1.07 [1.01 – 1.14] per 10 µmol/l increase) and initial intravenous administration of furosemide (adjusted OR 2.42 [1.39 – 4.29]). Death during follow-up occurred in 35% of patients in the AKI group compared to 21% in the non-AKI group (p &lt; 0.001). In multivariate analysis, persistent AKI was independently associated with increased mortality in a period of 100 days following furosemide initiation (adjusted HR 2.31 [1.07 – 4.99]). Transient AKI was not significantly associated with mortality (adjusted HR 0.64 [0.34 – 1.19]). Hemoconcentration was independently associated with decreased mortality (adjusted HR 0.46 [0.27 – 0.79]). Conclusion After furosemide initiation during hospitalization for AHF, persistent AKI (≥ 14 days) was independently associated with increased 100 days mortality. Hemoconcentration, using a definition suited for clinical practice (≥ 5 g/l increase in serum proteins), was independently associated with decreased 100 days mortality. No significant association was found between mortality and transient AKI (&lt; 14 days). Those findings show that laboratory tests at a limited cost – serum proteins and creatinine – are helpful to evaluate treatment response and mortality risk during AHF. Prospective randomized controlled trials are needed to establish diuretic strategies based on both AKI and hemoconcentration.

Survival in adult inpatients with COVID-19

We conducted a nationwide and retrospective cohort study to assess the survival experience and determining factors in adult inpatients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Data from 5,393 individuals were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted. The 7-day survival was 0.822 and went to 0.482, 0.280, and 0.145 on days 15, 21, and 30 of hospital stay, respectively. In the multiple analysis, factors associated with an increased risk of dying were: male gender, age, longer disease evolution before hospital entry, exposure to mechanical ventilator support, and personal history of chronic noncommunicable diseases (namely obesity, type-2 diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the survival probability in a large subset of Latin-American adults with COVID-19 and our results contribute to achieving a better understanding of disease evolution.

Nonprofit Versus For-Profit Health Care Competition: How Service Mix Makes Nonprofit Hospitals More Profitable

This article studies the intersection between the largest U.S. industry—health care—and the $1 trillion nonprofit sector. Using analytical and empirical analyses, the authors reveal the marketing strategies helping private nonprofit hospitals achieve higher output, prices, and profits than for-profit hospitals. Nonprofit hospitals, focusing on both profits and output, obtain these outcomes by expanding their service mix with high-priced premium specialty medical services (PSMS), whereas for-profit hospitals can be more profitable with higher prices for basic services. Competition increases the differences between nonprofit and for-profit hospitals in PSMS breadth, output, and prices. Nonprofit hospitals lose their competitive advantage when competing with other nonprofits; that is, presence of a for-profit competitor broadens available nonprofit PSMS. With broader service mixes, nonprofits focus more on national advertising than for-profits because PSMS (e.g., pediatric trauma, neurosurgery, heart transplants, oncology) require larger geographic markets than local basic services (e.g., laboratory, diagnostics, nursing, pharmaceutics). Exogenous, heterogeneous state regulations restricting for-profit hospital entry help econometric identification (i.e., markets prohibiting for-profits act as controls). Service mix may be a key difference between nonprofit and for-profit hospitals.

Single Specialty Hospitals and Service Competition

Advocates for physician-owned hospitals specializing in cardiac, orthopedic, and surgical services claim that these facilities induce healthy competition, stimulating improved performance among acute care hospitals. This paper examines the effect of specialty hospital entry on one indicator of competition among hospitals: changes in service provision by general hospitals in local markets. Results suggest that general hospitals are stepping up their own offerings of services that are in direct competition with those of specialty hospitals. Entry of specialty hospitals is also associated with significantly higher growth in high-technology diagnostic imaging services in the general hospitals in those markets.