scholarly journals On disasters evacuation modeling: From disruptive to slow-response decisions

2021 ◽  
pp. 102678
Author(s):  
Marcel Favereau ◽  
Luis F. Robledo ◽  
Diego Villalobos ◽  
Pierre-Yves Descote
Keyword(s):  
Slow Response ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Response Decisions

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

scholarly journals Predictive Factors of the Responses to Treatment of Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1154
Author(s):  
Eun Lee ◽  
Yun Young Lee
Keyword(s):  
Pleural Effusion ◽  
Mycoplasma Pneumoniae ◽  
Predictive Factors ◽  
Respiratory Virus ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Poor Response ◽  
Response To Treatment ◽  
Slow Response ◽  
Response Group ◽  
Time Of Admission

The prevalence of refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) pneumonia is increasing. The present study aimed to identify the predictive factors of responses to treatment of MP pneumonia in children. A total of 149 children were diagnosed with MP pneumonia, of whom 56 were included in the good response group, 75 children in the slow response group, and 18 children in no response or progression group. Data on the clinical, laboratory, and radiologic features were retrospectively obtained through medical chart reviews. The severity of pneumonia, based on the extent of pneumonic lesions on chest x-ray (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 10.573; 95% confidence intervals (CIs), 2.303−48.543), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels (aOR, 1.002; 95% CIs, 1.000–1.004) at the time of admission were associated with slow response to treatment of MP pneumonia. Pleural effusion (aOR, 5.127; 95% CIs, 1.404–18.727), respiratory virus co-infection (aOR, 4.354; 95% CIs, 1.374–13.800), and higher LDH levels (aOR, 1.005; 95% CIs, 1.002–1.007) as well as MP-specific IgM titer (aOR, 1.309; 95% CIs, 1.095–1.564) were associated with no response or progression of MP pneumonia. The area under the curve for the prediction of no or poor response in MP pneumonia using pleural effusion, respiratory virus co-infection, LDH levels, and MP-specific IgM titer at the time of admission was 0.8547. This study identified the predictive factors of responses to treatment of MP pneumonia in children, which would be helpful in establishing a therapeutic plan and predicting the clinical course of MP pneumonia in children.

scholarly journals Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Dunn ◽  
David E. Calkin ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Current Response ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Response Decisions

Wildfire’s economic, ecological and social impacts are on the rise, fostering the realisation that business-as-usual fire management in the United States is not sustainable. Current response strategies may be inefficient and contributing to unnecessary responder exposure to hazardous conditions, but significant knowledge gaps constrain clear and comprehensive descriptions of how changes in response strategies and tactics may improve outcomes. As such, we convened a special session at an international wildfire conference to synthesise ongoing research focused on obtaining a better understanding of wildfire response decisions and actions. This special issue provides a collection of research that builds on those discussions. Four papers focus on strategic planning and decision making, three papers on use and effectiveness of suppression resources and two papers on allocation and movement of suppression resources. Here we summarise some of the key findings from these papers in the context of risk-informed decision making. This collection illustrates the value of a risk management framework for improving wildfire response safety and effectiveness, for enhancing fire management decision making and for ushering in a new fire management paradigm.

scholarly journals Exploring methodological approaches to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation: reflections from using life history approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2667-2682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandni Singh ◽  
Mark Tebboth ◽  
Dian Spear ◽  
Prince Ansah ◽  
Adelina Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Life History ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Future Aspirations ◽  
Multiple Risks ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Response Decisions ◽  
Adaptation Processes

AbstractPeople in developing countries face multiple risks, and their response decisions sit at the complex and often opaque interface of climatic stressors, constrained resource access, and changing livelihoods, social structures, and personal aspirations. Many risk management studies use a well-established toolkit of methodologies—household surveys, focus group discussions, and semi-structured interviews. We argue that such methodological conservatism tends to neglect the dynamic and differentiated nature of livelihood decisions. Since different methodologies privilege different portrayals of risk and response, we highlight how plural methodological approaches can capture a broader range of perspectives and problematisations. In this paper, we draw on life history (LH) interviews across four countries (Kenya, Namibia, Ghana, and India) to offer one way of expanding current methodological approaches on vulnerability and adaptation. We argue that LHs offer four key ‘value additions’. First, LHs give insights into the multiple and interacting nature of drivers of response behaviour. Second, they highlight intra-household dynamics to demonstrate how people with differential power shape risk management decisions. Third, LHs support explorations of past decisions, present situations, and future aspirations, thus producing temporally nuanced enquiries. Fourth, they provide a powerful analytical lens to capture the interplay of motivations, aspirations, and values on livelihood choices and adaptation outcomes. By adding value in these four ways, LHs challenge assumptions about how and why people respond to multiple risks and offer a nuanced understanding of adaptation processes.

Importance of Public Service Reform: the Case of Kenya

1993 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
Slow Response ◽  
Bilateral Aid ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Tied Aid

International donors supporting Kenya's development strategies have increasingly tied aid to the implementation of policy and sectoral reforms. After being confronted by more than 150 required structural adjustment conditions, the Government's good rhetoric but slow response led frustrated donors in November 1991 to suspend all foreign-exchange relief, and large blocks of bilateral aid, pending substantial progress in meeting these requirements.

Economic Reforms in Jamaica

1996 ◽  
Vol 38 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 97-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Danielson
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
The Political ◽  
Rural Poor ◽  
Slow Response ◽  
Formal Sector ◽  
Paper Briefly ◽  
The Past

AbstractThis paper briefly discusses the economic reforms that have taken place in Jamaica for the past 15 years and argues that the reforms, at least so far, are mixed, particularly with regard to the elimination of poverty. The basic problems are (1) a slow response of exports to large, frequent adjustments in the exchange rate, which prohibits low-wage labor, in the informal sector, from being absorbed into the formal sector; and (2) the large budget deficit, with the associated demands for large cuts in expenditures, which primarily affects the rural poor. It is suggested that the principal reason that reforms have been slow is because of the political price to be paid for unpopular measures in a competitive democracy

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document