Machine Learning Applied to Omics Datasets Predicts Mortality in Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis

Alcoholic hepatitis is a major health care burden in the United States due to significant morbidity and mortality. Early identification of patients with alcoholic hepatitis at greatest risk of death is extremely important for proper treatments and interventions to be instituted. In this study, we used gradient boosting, random forest, support vector machine and logistic regression analysis of laboratory parameters, fecal bacterial microbiota, fecal mycobiota, fecal virome, serum metabolome and serum lipidome to predict mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Gradient boosting achieved the highest AUC of 0.87 for both 30-day mortality prediction using the bacteria and metabolic pathways dataset and 90-day mortality prediction using the fungi dataset, which showed better performance than the currently used model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score.

Geographic Disparities in Readmissions for Peripheral Artery Disease in South Carolina

Readmissions constitute a major health care burden among peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients. This study aimed to 1) estimate the zip code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level prevalence of readmission among PAD patients and characterize the effect of covariates on readmissions; and (2) identify hotspots of PAD based on estimated prevalence of readmission. Thirty-day readmissions among PAD patients were identified from the South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office All Payers Database (2010–2018). Bayesian spatial hierarchical modeling was conducted to identify areas of high risk, while controlling for confounders. We mapped the estimated readmission rates and identified hotspots using local Getis Ord (G*) statistics. Of the 232,731 individuals admitted to a hospital or outpatient surgery facility with PAD diagnosis, 30,366 (13.1%) experienced an unplanned readmission to a hospital within 30 days. Fitted readmission rates ranged from 35.3 per 1000 patients to 370.7 per 1000 patients and the risk of having a readmission was significantly associated with the percentage of patients who are 65 and older (0.992, 95%CI: 0.985–0.999), have Medicare insurance (1.013, 1.005–1.020), and have hypertension (1.014, 1.005–1.023). Geographic analysis found significant variation in readmission rates across the state and identified priority areas for targeted interventions to reduce readmissions.

Reducing Health Care Burden of Emergency General Surgery with a 24-Hour Dedicated Emergency General Surgery Service

Background Emergency general surgery (EGS) diagnoses account for 11% of surgical admissions and 50% of surgical mortality. In this population, 7 specific operations are associated with 80.3% of deaths, 78.9% of complications, and 80.2% of hospital costs. In 2016, our institution established a comprehensive in-house EGS service. Herein, we hypothesize that formation of a dedicated EGS service is associated with a significant reduction in morbidity for patients undergoing the most common EGS procedures. Methods All patients undergoing one of the most common EGS procedures within 2 days of admission were identified from 1/1/2013 to 5/9/2019 via a retrospective chart review. Patients were cohorted as pre- and post-EGS implementation. The primary outcome measure was the overall complication rate. Secondary endpoints included mortality, individual complication rate, time to operation, overnight operation, and length of stay. Finally, both cohorts were benchmarked to national outcomes. Results 718 patients met inclusion criteria (pre-EGS = 409 and post-EGS = 309). Overall complication rate decreased significantly (19.8% vs 13.9%, P = .0387) and overnight operations increased significantly in the post-EGS group (7.8%-16.5%, P = .0003). Pre-EGS complications were higher than national data in all but 1 procedure group, whereas post-EGS complications rates were lower in all but 2 categories. Discussion Implementation of a dedicated EGS service line was associated with a significant decrease in complication rate among the most complication-prone EGS procedures. Number of operations within 24 hours did not increase significantly; however, overnight operations did increase. Our results indicate that establishing a service-specific EGS line is reasonable and beneficial.

Incidence and mortality of necrotizing fasciitis in The Netherlands: the impact of group A Streptococcus

Background Little is known about the exact incidence of necrotizing soft tissue infections. The few incidences reported in international literature are not directly relatable to the Netherlands, or other European countries, due to geographic heterogeneity in causative micro-organisms involved. This resulted in the aim of this study to map the incidence, mortality rate and hospital course of necrotizing fasciitis infections in the Netherlands to gain insight in the incidence of necrotizing fasciitis in the Netherlands and the associated mortality and health care burden. Methods This nationwide retrospective database study used three distinct data sources to map the incidence of necrotizing fasciitis in the Netherlands between 2014 and 2019, being data from the Dutch Hospital Data (DHD) foundation, data from Osiris-AIZ, which is a database of notifiable diseases managed by regional Public Health Services (GGD) and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), and previously published studies on necrotizing fasciitis conducted in the Netherlands. Results The incidence of necrotizing fasciitis in the Netherlands is estimated to be approximately 1.1 to 1.4 cases per 100,000 person years, which corresponds to 193–238 patients per year. Of all necrotizing fasciitis infections, 34 to 42% are caused by the group A Streptococcus. Annually, 56 patients die as a result of a necrotizing fasciitis infection (mortality of 23–29%) and 26 patients undergo an amputation for source control (11–14%). Patients stay a mean of 6 to 7 days at the intensive care unit and have a mean hospital length of stay of 24 to 30 days. Conclusion The combination of nationwide databases provides reliable insight in the epidemiology of low-incidence and heterogenic diseases. In the Netherlands, necrotizing fasciitis is a rare disease with group A Streptococcus being the most common causative micro-organism of necrotizing fasciitis. The prior Dutch cohort studies on necrotizing fasciitis report slightly higher sample mortality rates, compared to the population mortality. However, necrotizing fasciitis remain associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, risk at amputation and health care burden characterized by prolonged ICU and hospital stay.

Early, Subacute Coronary Stent Thrombosis: A Complication of COVID-19 Infection

Soon after it was discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) blow-out very fast and became a pandemic. The usual presentation is respiratory tract infection, but cardiovascular system involvement is sometimes fatal and also a serious personal and health care burden. We report a case of a 57-year-old man who was admitted with anterior wall acute myocardial infarction secondary to early coronary stent thrombosis and associated with COVID-19 infection. He was managed with primary coronary angioplasty and discharged home. Procoagulant and hypercoagulability status associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection is the most likely culprit. Choosing aggressive antithrombotic agents after coronary angioplasty to prevent stent thrombosis during the COVID-19 pandemic may be the answer but could be challenging.

Utility of Ottawa ankle rules in excluding ankle fractures in Indian scenario

<p><strong>Background:</strong> Patients with acute ankle injuries form a major bulk in outdoor and emergency room, and many of them get radiographs done to rule out fractures. Ottawa ankle rules (OAR) may reduce the need for unnecessary radiographs by detecting fractures only with help of simple clinical findings. We conducted this study to see the extent of usefulness of these rules in our day-to-day practice.</p><p><strong>Methods</strong>: Our study is observational in nature. A total of 107 patients who visited the clinic of the chief investigator between the time period from 1^st January 2019 to 31^st December 2020, fulfilling inclusion criteria and willing to participate, were enrolled. The patients were examined clinically, and the assessor recorded the findings on a previously prepared assessment form. Data analysis was done from the master chart.</p><p><strong>Results</strong>: Among the 107 patients, 46 patients were ‘suspicion positive’ by OAR. After the radiographic assessment, we found 11 fractures, all of which belonged to the ‘suspicion positive’ group. Statistical analysis showed that OAR had a sensitivity of 100% for ankle fractures, whereas specificity for the same was 63.54%. We found the positive predictive value to be 23.91% and negative predictive value to be 100%, positive likelihood ratio of 2.74, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.</p><p><strong>Conclusions</strong>: OAR is an easy and reliable tool to screen ankle fractures. In a country with as massive a health care burden as ours, it can reduce the number of unnecessary radiographs and thus reduce exposure, cost, and time of medical professionals.</p>

Association between sepsis incidence and regional socioeconomic deprivation and health care capacity in Germany – an ecological study

Background Sepsis is a substantial health care burden. Data on regional variation in sepsis incidence in Germany and any possible associations with regional socioeconomic deprivation and health care capacity is lacking. Methods Ecological study based on the nationwide hospital Diagnosis-related Groups (DRG) statistics data of 2016. We identified sepsis by ICD-10-codes and calculated crude and age-standardized incidence proportions in the 401 administrative German districts. Associations between socioeconomic and health care capacity indicators and crude and age-adjusted sepsis incidence were investigated by simple and multiple negative binomial (NB) regressions. Results In 2016, sepsis incidence was 178 per 100,000 inhabitants and varied 10-fold between districts. We found that the rate of students leaving school without certificate was significantly associated with crude and age-standardized explicit sepsis incidence in the simple and multiple NB regressions. While we observed no evidence for an association to the capacity of hospital beds and general practitioners, the distance to the nearest pharmacy was associated with crude- and age-standardized sepsis incidence. In the multiple regression analyses, an increase of the mean distance + 1000 m was associated with an expected increase by 21.6 [95% CI, 10.1, 33.0] (p < 0.001), and 11.1 [95% CI, 1.0, 21.2]/100,000 population (p = .026) after adjusting for age differences between districts. Conclusions Residence in districts with lower socioeconomic status (e.g., less education) and further distance to pharmacies are both associated with an increased sepsis incidence. This warrants further research with individual-level patient data to better model and understand such dependencies and to ultimately design public health interventions to address the burden of sepsis in Germany.

Biological therapy for severe asthma

Around 5–10% of the total asthmatic population suffer from severe or uncontrolled asthma, which is associated with increased mortality and hospitalization, increased health care burden and worse quality of life. In the last few years, new drugs have been launched and several asthma phenotypes according to definite biomarkers have been identified. In particular, therapy with biologics has revolutionized the management and the treatment of severe asthma, showing high therapeutic efficacy associated with significant clinical benefits. To date, four types of biologics are licensed for severe asthma, i.e. omalizumab (anti-immunoglobulin E) antibody, mepolizumab and reslizumab (anti-interleukin [IL]-5antibody), benralizumab (anti-IL-5 receptor a antibody) and dupilumab (anti-IL-4 receptor alpha antibody). The aim of this article was to review the biologic therapies currently available for the treatment of severe asthma, in order to help physicians to choose the most suitable biologic agent for their asthmatic patients.