تقدير نموذج الاستيراد في السودان خلال الفترة 1960-2008م

تقدير نموذج الاستيراد في السودان خلال الفترة 1960-2008م The research objectives are building, estimating and analyzing the model of import. The research follows the analytical descriptive methodology and applies the econometrics approach. The determinants included are: gross domestic production, investment, exchange rate and customs (tariff), regarding the simultaneous relationships between the variables. The results shwed that individual estimators are significantly different from zero. Also the import model is significantly different from zero. The proportion of the total variation in the import explained by the model is 77%

COVID-19 and Global Supply Chain Configuration: Economic and Emissions Impacts of Australia-China Trade Disruptions

Economic shocks from COVID-19, coupled with ongoing US-China tensions, have raised debates around supply chain (or global value chain) organisation, with China at the centre of the storm. However, quantitative studies that consider the global and economy-wide impacts of rerouting supply chains are limited. This study examines the economic and emissions impacts of reorganising supply chains, using Australia-China trade as an example. It augments the Hypothetical Extraction Method by replacing traditional Input-Output analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium analysis. The estimation results demonstrate that in both exports and imports, a trade embargo between Australia and China – despite being compensated for by alternative supply chains—will cause gross domestic production losses and emissions increases for both countries and the world overall. Moreover, even though all other economies gain from the markets left by China, many of them incur overall gross domestic production losses and emission increases. The finding that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and India may also suffer from an Australia-China trade embargo, despite a gain in trade volume, suggests that no country should add fuel to the fire. The results suggest that countries need to defend a rules-based trading regime and jointly address supply chain challenges.

A Feasibility Study on GlobalGAP Adoption among Small Farmers in Pakistan

During the last couple of decades, certifications’ role across the globe had taken a remarkable place with respect to meeting the international market demands for food security and safety. The study analyzes the cost structure of GlobalGAP adoption, identify various farm level factors that may affect a farmer’s decision to get certified. Moreover, the study estimates the impact of certification on farm output. It has found that there is requirement to assess the properties of Global-GAP for Pakistani agriculture; to attain this a complete methodological idea is essential. This part will explain the analysis methods, research methodology, research design, and data collection. It would make the agriculture sector of Pakistan more export oriented, yielding higher returns to the gross domestic production of the county. In this context, the current study would yield a valuable guideline in order to reformulate policies that would ultimately help to improve global competency of agriculture sector of Pakistan. The benefit of this would be multifold. First, this would improve the livelihood conditions of the farming community. Secondly, adoption to good agricultural practices would contribute to food quality. And finally, it would make the agriculture sector of Pakistan more export oriented, yielding higher returns to the gross domestic production of the county.

The Reality of Financing Small Tourism Firms

Small tourist firms occupy an important place within the Indian tourism industry and make a significant contribution towards gross domestic production. This study investigates access to and finance preferences of SME tourism firms in the Punjab area, India. The study employed a post-positivist research approach depending on semi-structured questionnaires and interviews. The findings confirmed that tourism firms relied on pecking order trajectory, drawing capital from own savings, family and informal lenders, which is consistent with the literature. The study provides a unique insight into issues related to tourism firms and benchmarks findings with SME literature to identify the salient points.

UZBEKISTAN OF 2018 – EARLY 2020. MAIN TRENDS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC

This article covers an analysis of socio-economic development of the Republic of Uzbekistan at the present time. The author reviews the main formation milestones for an independent state from 1991. He shows that the process was accompanied by a radical breakdown of the previous administrative command system, privatisation and demonopolisation, the introduction of various forms of market relations, and the creation of new industries. The author highlights, in particular, successful and unsuccessful attempts of the country’s leaders to raise the profile of the industrial sector of the economy and to make Uzbekistan an industrial state. The author sets a task to characterise the structure of Uzbekistan’s economy, to analyse indicators of gross domestic production, and to study the features of its development. The article discusses in detail the main parameters of the socio-economic situation in the country in 2018 – early 2020 and highlights the key factors contributing to the crisis trends in the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. According to the author, cyclical global crises and the coronavirus pandemic, as well as mass labour migration to neighbouring countries, should be recognised as key factors in that case. Special attention is paid to the analysis of various aspects of multifaceted cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan and joint projects implemented in various sectors of the national economies of both countries. The author emphasises that a new impetus to these relations was given by Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Tashkent in October 2018.

THE PAKISTAN SUGAR INDUSTRY ITS CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE NEEDS

The small sugar industry can afford to idle along using Research and development (R & D) produced (and paid for) by other sugar industries but when it is big with world standards it's a different matter. This study was important because Pakistan is 5th largest producer of sugarcane but it still lacks major advancement in production and marketing. The largest producers are Brazil, India, Thailand, China, and Pakistan accounting for more than 70% of world production. Brazil has the highest area (5.34 million hectares) while Australia has the highest productivity a n d s u g a r c a n e y i e l d (85 tons per hectare). Sugarcane is the second largest cash crop of Pakistan and is being cultivated on 1.06 million hectares with 55 t ha cane yield and sugar yield of 5.5 t ha, contributing around 3.6 % of Gross domestic production. The installed capacity of 85 sugar factories is to produce 7.5 million tons of refined sugar and domestic demand is around 4.5 million tons. This shows it’s export potential of 3.5 million tons, annually.

The Reality of Financing Small Tourism Firms

Small tourist firms occupy an important place within the Indian tourism industry and make a significant contribution towards gross domestic production. This study investigates access to and finance preferences of SME tourism firms in the Punjab area, India. The study employed a post-positivist research approach depending on semi-structured questionnaires and interviews. The findings confirmed that tourism firms relied on pecking order trajectory, drawing capital from own savings, family and informal lenders, which is consistent with the literature. The study provides a unique insight into issues related to tourism firms and benchmarks findings with SME literature to identify the salient points.

Impact of Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment on Gross Domestic Production: Forecasts for the Case of Sri Lanka

Tourism industry is found as the second rapidly growing business after the information and communication technology in the global arena. A number of economies are triumphant in marketing their tourism destinations along with the generation of a considerable amount of foreign currency earnings due to the origination of tourism industrial sector. After economic reforms initiated in Sri Lanka in year 1977 onwards, the governments have thereafter implemented a number of various fruitful policies and development projects so as to promote the tourism industrial sector in pursuit of economic growth and development. This study investigates the Contribution of Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in Sri Lanka. The software such as EViews 10, Excel, and Minitab are used to analyze the data. To achieve its goal, the nonparametric approaches such Nearest Neighbor Fit, Kernal Fit, and Confidence Ellipse to find the relationship were used in this study. Error Correction Mechanism, Co-Integration, and Analysis of Causality are the econometric techniques used to find the relationship. This study employs annual data for the period from 1977 to 2017and forecasted the data from 2018 to 2022 in order to find out the future potential of the contribution. The co-integration regression result revealed that the relationship between Tourism Receipts and Gross Domestic Production has been positively and statistically significant. The Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Production have been positively and statistically significant. However short run effect impact multiplier of Tourism Receipts is statistically not significant but Foreign Direct Investment statistically significant. The results of Granger Causality tests, in the variables are one-way causal relationships. According to the results of this study suggests that it is vital for Sri Lankan government to implement some of the marketing efforts to develop the tourism industrial sectors as one of the best destinations in Asian region.

Global Patterns of Crop Production Losses Associated with Droughts from 1983 to 2009

Droughts represent an important type of climate extreme that reduces crop production and food security. Although this fact is well known, the global geographic pattern of drought-driven reductions in crop production is poorly characterized. As the incidence of relatively more severe droughts is expected to increase under climate change, understanding the vulnerability of crop production to droughts is a key research priority. Here, we estimate the production losses of maize, rice, soy, and wheat from 1983 to 2009 using empirical relationships among crop yields, a drought index, and annual precipitation. We find that approximately three-fourths of the global harvested areas—454 million hectares—experienced drought-induced yield losses over this period, and the cumulative production losses correspond to 166 billion U.S. dollars. Globally averaged, one drought event decreases agricultural gross domestic production by 0.8%, with varying magnitudes of impacts by country. Crop production systems display decreased vulnerability or increased resilience to drought according to increases in per capita gross domestic production (GDP) in the countries with extensive semiarid agricultural areas. These changes in vulnerability accompany technological improvements represented by per capita GDP increases. Our estimates of drought-induced economic losses in agricultural systems offer a sound basis for subsequent assessments of the costs of adaptation to droughts under climate change.

Ecological Footprint, Foreign Direct Investment, and Gross Domestic Production: Evidence of Belt & Road Initiative Countries

This research is employed to examine the environmental issues embedded in Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), to be more specific: testify which of these hypotheses: Pollution Havens Hypothesis, Pollution Halo Hypothesis, Environmental Kuznets Curve is in accordance with the current development condition of BRI counties; whether there exists a bidirectional relationship among Ecological Footprint, Gross Domestic Production, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Belt & Road Initiative countries. In this paper, Panel Vector Autoregression is utilized to analyze a dataset of 44-member countries in this initiative, ranges from 1990 to 2016, to empirically testify the environmental evaluation of this project. Results are analyzed on both long-run and short-run cases through Orthogonalized Impulse-Response Functions (IRF). This research displays a great heterogeneity among different target variables, FDI as a main variable of interest does not expose a bidirectional relationship with Ecological Footprint, only Ecological Footprint demonstrates robust influence on FDI. In addition, Pollution Havens Hypothesis is certified to be true for FDI and GDP among Belt & Road Initiative member countries.