Abstract
We present phenological data for two time periods (1985–1987 and 2014–2016) on major tree species (Shorea robusta, Pinus roxburghii, Myrica esculenta, Quercus leucotrichophora, Rhododendron arboreum, Quercus floribunda, and Machilus duthiei) occurring along an altitudinal gradient of 300–2,200 m asl of Himalayan forests (a data-deficient region identified by the IPCC, 2007), and show that bud break and leafing in trees has advanced at 0.20 days/year, which is associated with a significant (P < 0.001) increase in atmospheric temperature (0.038°C/year) over the years in the study area. Also, the leaf drop period has advanced correspondingly (0.40 days/year); hence, the length of season (LOS) did not increase in these trees. This finding is contrary to the report of increase in LOS due to climatic warming from temperate latitudes of the world and satellite-based studies in Himalayan region. Arguably, phenomena such as bud break and leafing may not be captured by remote sensing, which is critical for determining the impact of climate change on the forest vegetation of the eco-sensitive Himalayan region. We suggest that this phenological earliness may alter forest structure and functioning and associated ecosystem services of these forests in the long run.
Study Implications: This study suggests that bud break and leafing in trees has advanced, an advancement that is associated with the significant increase in atmospheric temperature over the years in the study area. However, the leaf drop period has advanced correspondingly; hence, the length of season of trees in the study area did not increase. Nonetheless, the earliness in the leafing and leaf drop have potential implications on forest ecosystem structure and functioning, such as photosynthesis, carbon assimilation, increased asynchrony in plant-pollinators and animal interactions, reproduction success, and herbivory that require further detailed investigation. Warming may also advance seed maturation and desiccation of seeds that may disrupt the synchrony between monsoon and tree seed germination, forest regeneration, and ensuing ecosystem services. Generalizations on a regional scale on the impact of climate change on annual patterns of growth of forests that are based on remote-sensing studies could mask the impact of the premonsoon period, when bud break and leafing take place. These impacts may not be captured by remote sensing; impacts which, in this study, we have found to be critical.