Prediction Biases: An Integrative Review

Research in psychology and related fields has documented a myriad of prediction biases, such as the underprediction of hedonic adaptation and the overprediction of other people’s concern for fairness. These prediction biases are ostensibly independent, each with its own cause. We argue, however, that many of these seemingly disparate biases are specific instances of a general bias—situation insensitivity: People are insensitive to variations in the situational variable that underlies the target variable (the variable to be predicted). Consequently, when encountering a condition in which the situational variable is at one of its ends such that the value of the target variable is low, people overpredict the value; conversely, when encountering a condition in which the situational variable is at its other end such that the value of the target variable is high, people underpredict it. Most prior research documenting prediction biases has focused on only one end of the situational variable and therefore has shown either only an overprediction bias or only an underprediction bias. We argue that at the other end of the situational variable, the originally documented bias can disappear or even reverse. Our framework not only explains known biases but also predicts new biases.

Analyse Success Model of Split Time and Cut-Off Point Values of Physical Demands to Keep Category in Semi-Professional Football Players

The aim of this study was to analyse different success models and split time on cut-off point values on physical demands to keep category in semi-professional football players. An ad hoc observational controlled study was carried out with a total of ten (840 match data) outfield main players (25.2 ± 6.3 years, 1.79 ± 0.75 m, 74.9 ± 5.8 kg and 16.5 ± 6 years of football experience) and monitored using 15 Hz GPS devices. During 14 official matches from the Spanish division B in the 2016/2017 season, match data were coded considering the situational variable (score) and classified by match results (winning, losing or drawing). The results show significant differences between high-intensity attributes criteria that considered split time in velocity zones of 0–15 min (p = 0.043, ηp2 = 0.065, medium), 30–45 min (p = 0.010, ηp2 = 0.094, medium) and 60–75 min (p = 0.015, ηp2 = 0.086, medium), as well as sprint 60–75 min (p = 0.042, ηp2 = 0.066, medium) and 75–90 min (p = 0.002, ηp2 = 0.129, medium). Decision tree induction was applied to reduce the disparity range of data according to six 15-min intervals and to determine the cut-off point values for every parameter combination. It was possible to establish multivariate models for the main high-intensity actions criteria, allowing the establishment of all rules with their attributes and enabling the detection and visualisation of relationships and the pattern sets of variables for determining success.

Identyfikowanie róznic w sprawności działania zespołów zwycięskich i pokonanych podczas Mistrzostw Świata – Rosja 2018

Systematically undertaken analyzes of football pitch activities, especially in championship tournaments, are conducive to ongoing monitoring of players’ behaviors on the pitch as well as identifying trends in football game. Such actions allow training verification and the use of modern and current reality-related changes in game tactics. These are also changes in motor and mental preparation of the players. Purpose and Research Methods. The aim of the study was to indicate the influence of the situational variable, which was the outcome of the match (victory or defeat) of the teams directly competing with each other on the efficiency of actions during the World Championships Russia − 2018. ProZone game analysis system was used as a research method. Results of Work. It was stated that the winning teams: in all analyzed parameters of shots on goal, activity and effectiveness of short- and medium-range passes, keeping the ball in the penalty area, dribbling, sliding tackle and effectiveness of clearance, achieved significantly higher values of analyzed parameters than teams losing matches in direct competition. In this championship tournament there were no significant tendency changes in the analyzed game parameters affecting the development of football. Conclusions. There should be carried out systematic studies especially of championship tournaments as well as players and teams at a championship level in order to observe and set new football trends. Apart from goal shots, which are definitely preferred by winning teams, other activities are characterized by leveling out the game efficiency between winning and losing teams. This applies especially to the quality parameters of the game.

Guidelines for effective intercultural business negotiations

Purpose For managers and senior executives who find themselves negotiating with international partners who differ in terms of culture, communication style, time orientation, as well as personal and professional backgrounds, understanding the complex range of factors that impact intercultural business negotiations (ICBN) for short – is a fundamentally important skill. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on an organised review of literature on culture and business negotiations in Usunier (2019), systematically examining the interface of culture with dispositional (e.g. negotiator’s gender) and situational variable (e.g. type of contract, one-shot versus repeated deals). Findings Empathy is not all, culture overlaps and interacts with other key negotiation variables. The paper derives a set of guidelines for effective ICBN. Originality/value Many approaches to ICBN emphasise culture as a stand-alone variable. The approach helps to avoid naïve behaviour and proposes a framework for linking cultural aspects to other major situational and dispositional variables in the ICBN process.

Pengaruh Budaya Organisasi Terhadap Prestasi Kerja Karyawan Bagian Corporate Administrasion pada PT. NITTOH Presisi Indonesia

The evaluation of performance is one of the important tasks done by a manager or a leader. In evaluating employees’ performance like and dislike is one factor that should be avoided by an evaluator to maintain the objectivity of the evaluation. The evaluation is necessary because it can be used to improve decision concerning personnel or to give feedback regarding the employees’ performance. There are two variables that can influence performance the first one is individual variable including attitude, characteristics, interests and motivation, experience, age, sex, education and other factors. The second one is situational variable that consists of physical and work factor, types of training and evaluation, wage system and social environment. Thus, it can be concluded that organization culture and employee’s performance are interdependent factors. The importance of organization culture in the organization life will increase employees’ performance. The organization culture that is employed at PT. Nittoh Presisi Indonesia are: Seiri (orderly), Seiton (neatness), Seiso (cleanliness), Seiketsu (eternal) and Sitshuke (discipline). The criteria in evaluating employee’s performance at PT Nittoh Presisi Indonesia among other things are: attendance sheet, obeying company’s rules, understanding of order, work diligence, partnership among colleagues, the quantity of target goal, the quality of the target work and capability and potential development. From ANOVA results on experiment variables it was found that F counted was 62.966 while the value of F table with degree of freedom (df = 2 and 56) on the α = 0.005 was 2.80. Therefore, since the value of F counted is bigger than F table (62.966 > 2.80), it can be concluded that the organization culture influences the employee’s performance at PT Nittoh Presisi Indonesia.

Determining Multi-Layer Factors That Drive the Carbon Capability of Urban Residents in Response to Climate Change: An Exploratory Qualitative Study in China

The active promotion of carbon abatement to mitigate global climate change and protect the environment and public health has become the international consensus. The carbon capability is a key index for measuring the potential reduction of the carbon emissions by urban residents, and thus encouraging residents to exhibit normal and autonomous low-carbon behavior has become an important issue. In this study, based on grounded theory, data from in-depth interviews were encoded at three levels to identify the multi-layer factors that drive the carbon capability of urban residents, and we constructed a theoretical model for policy intervention. The results showed that individual factors, organizational factors, social factors, and social demographic variables were the main variables that affected the carbon capability, and utility experience perception was the main intermediary variable that affected the carbon capability. There was an obvious gap between utility experience perception and carbon capability. Low carbon selection cost was an internal situational variable that regulated the relationship between these factors, and the policy situation and technical situation were external situational variables. There were two-way effects on the carbon capability and utility experience perception. Thus, we explored these driving factors and the role of the carbon capability model. The results of this study may facilitate targeted policy thinking and the development of an implementation path for government in order to formulate effective guiding policies to enhance the carbon capability of urban residents.

Variables that Predict Serve Efficacy in Elite Men’s Volleyball with Different Quality of Opposition Sets

The objective of this study was to determine the variables that predicted serve efficacy in elite men’s volleyball, in sets with different quality of opposition. 3292 serve actions were analysed, of which 2254 were carried out in high quality of opposition sets and 1038 actions were in low quality of opposition sets, corresponding to a total of 24 matches played during the Men’s European Volleyball Championships held in 2011. The independent variables considered in this study were the serve zone, serve type, serving player, serve direction, reception zone, receiving player and reception type; the dependent variable was serve efficacy and the situational variable was quality of opposition sets. The variables that acted as predictors in both high and low quality of opposition sets were the serving player, reception zone and reception type. The serve type variable only acted as a predictor in high quality of opposition sets, while the serve zone variable only acted as a predictor in low quality of opposition sets. These results may provide important guidance in men’s volleyball training processes.

MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES IN CAREGIVERS OF CANCER PATIENTS

Cancer, a terminal illness, has long been a focus of attention due to its fatal nature. Its diagnosis results in distress not only to the patients and physicians, but also the families and caregivers involved. This distress is of a multifaceted nature, including psychological, financial and physical distress. The present paper aims to explore mental health issues that specifically influence cancer patients’ caregivers. However, in a country like Pakistan literature is not very rich regarding the mentioned issue. Therefore, giving rise to the immense need to create awareness concerning this pressing issue. In this paper, an effort has been made to identify the types of mental health problems and variables which could potentially affect the mental health of a cancer patient caregiver. An analysis on the type of issues and associated determining variables reveals various patients’ variable, situational variable or the caregiver’s own personality which makes them susceptible to poor mental health. Furthermore, the paper tries to answer the different question regarding the prevalence rate, current status of, and awareness on the above mentioned aspect. In the end some possible recommendations have also been made in the context of the mental health issues regarding the caregivers of cancer patients discussed in the paper.