Markov chains to determine the probability of climate change for planting selection in the city of Caxias do Sul

ABSTRACT: The Markov stochastic chain model and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) were used as tools to support decision-making for the best crop-planting choice in the city of Caxias do Sul, Brazil. Temperature and precipitation information were collected from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil for the period 1997-2017. The stochastic model was applied to obtain the probability of transition between a range of variations for temperature and precipitation. In the second phase of the study, an algebraic model was developed, making it possible to link the probability of the Markov chain transition matrix to the AHP judgment matrix. In the third phase, the AHP was applied as a tool to determine the most beneficial crop that could be planted for the studied city, considering the evaluated criteria: temperature, precipitation, and soil pH. The alternatives for crop planting were carrots, tomatoes, apples, and grapes. These were chosen because they are the most-planted crops in the city of Caxias do Sul. The ranking of the benefit-force results of applying the model for spring was carrots (0.297), apples (0.259), grapes (0.228), and tomatoes (0.215); for summer: grapes (0.261), tomatoes (0.261), apples (0.238), and carrots (0.230); for autumn: carrots (0.316), grapes (0.243), tomatoes (0.228), and apples (0.213); and for winter: carrots (0.327), tomatoes (0.235), apples (0.222), and grapes (0.216). Thus, it was concluded that farmers would have a better chance of success if they planted carrots during the spring, autumn, and winter, and grapes during the summer.

Is Transition from Secondary to Tertiary Education Less Likely among Black South Africans than their Non-Black Counterparts in the Democratic Dispensation?

Education provides the building blocks for skills development for acountry’s labour market. Investment in education is hence an importantdeterminant of economic growth and has been associated with various economicbenefits. However, non-transition to tertiary education is a common phenomenon.This study examined the probability of a specified age cohort transiting to tertiaryeducation in South Africa and compared Black South Africans with otherpopulation groups considering environmental and individual factors. Usingcross-sectional data from the 2016 South African Community Survey, the studyrevealed that the difference in the probability of transition to tertiary educationbetween Whites and Blacks was not statistically significant. The findings will beuseful to policymakers in formulating strategies to improve the quality of thelabour market, and thus South Africa’s economic competitiveness.Key words: Transition to tertiary education, South African education system,apartheid education, post-apartheid education, economic development

Knowledge Modeling of power grid regulation based on reasoning map

To contribute to the intelligence and knowledge of power grid regulation and control operations, this paper presents a method of power grid regulation knowledge modeling based on ELG (Event Logic Graph), which includes an event word extraction based on a predicate-argument model, an event chain extraction and fusion based on event similarity theory, an event generalization based on a soft-pattern algorithm, and an event relationship recognition based on rule pattern matching method and joint constraints. Finally, this paper uses events as nodes and event relationships as directed edges to construct an affair graph stipulated by the power grid regulation and control regulations. The ELG is also called the new generation knowledge graph. But the knowledge graph can only describe the existence of entities and the upper and lower associations between entities. ELG can explain the inheritance, causality between entities and the logic of affair evolution, and the probability of transition between legacy and causality. Therefore, knowledge modeling based on ELG has intelligent advantages. Also, compared with ontology-based knowledge modeling methods, the method proposed in this paper can realize the dynamic representation of control operation knowledge, can express the logic of behavior and logic of operation, and also has higher retrieval accuracy.

Prediction of transition probability from unemployment to employment in Argentina (2003-2019)

Despite their growing participation in the labor market, women who decide to go out and look for a job face greater difficulties in obtaining it. The participation of women in the labor force is considerably lower, even if entering the labor market the possibility of actually finding a job is also less than the chance that men have of doing so (CIPPEC, 2019). Being able to predict the probability of occupational insertion of men and women, and inquire about the factors that influence this probability, is essential in order to understand gender gaps in the labor market, helping to improve the design and implementation of public policies with a gender perspective, with the final goal to achieve equality of opportunities. In this framework, the present work will seek to predict the probability of transition from unemployment to the employment in Argentina from 2003 to 2019, using the Permanent Household Survey, based on traditional prediction techniques and Machine Learning, with the objective to find the most robust model that achieves the highest level of accuracy.

Recovery and exit of zombie firms in Portugal

The resources sunk in zombie firms have risen over the last two decades, hampering productivity growth in developed economies. In this paper, we examine the recovery and exit of zombie firms among small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME), as well as the determinants of these transitions. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the determinants of the probability of a zombie recovering or exiting in a European context. The study also contributes to the discussion of the definition of zombie firms. Based on a panel of Portuguese manufacturing and services firms covering the 2004–2017 period, we do find a widespread presence of zombies. As expected, they are relatively less productive than non-zombies, while the probability of transition into recovery and exit is relatively low, which we interpret as evidence in favour of the presence of high barriers to firm mobility. In turn, the regression results show that downsizing and restructuring, as well as debt restructuring, are crucial in enhancing recovery of zombie firms. These are non-trivial results from the perspective of managers and policy makers. We performed several exercises using alternative definitions of zombie firms and estimation techniques and found that our findings are robust.Plain English Summary A 1% decline in the share of highly indebted and unprofitable firms (i.e. zombies) is estimated to increase the average labour productivity by 3.1 percent. Recovery of zombies in particular can be enhanced by downsizing and restructuring. Based on a very large panel of Portuguese small- and medium-sized manufacturing and services firms, covering the 2004–2017 period, we do find a widespread presence of zombie firms. Moreover, the chance of these firms to recover or exit is relatively low, an evidence of the presence of high barriers to firm mobility and resource misallocation. Our results have important managerial and policy implications: (1) a coordinated and holistic restructuring strategy (technological, operational and debt-related) is crucial to increase the likelihood of recovery of weak companies; (2) governments should formulate an adequate institutional framework in order to strengthen the selection of zombie firms, namely by designing more reallocation-friendly insolvency regimes and discouraging creditors to refinance unviable firms.

BURNING OF FORESTS IN SNNP «BURABAY» AND WAYS TO MINIMIZE IT

Аридизация климата, наблюдающаяся в последние десятилетия, обусловила увеличение опасности возникновения и развития лесных пожаров. Особенно это проявляется в южных районах, где лесные насаждения произрастают на границе со степью в экстремальных для них лесорастительных условиях. Уменьшение количества осадков, повышение летних температур и усиление ветра приводят к ускоренно- му высыханию напочвенных горючих материалов и, как следствие этого, повышают вероятность прихода в лесные массивы степных пожаров, а также перехода низовых лесных пожаров в верховые. Сосновые насаждения ГНПП «Бурабай» характеризуются повышенной пожарной опасностью. В них велика вероятность перехода низовых пожаров в верховые и создания угрозы населенным пунктам. В целях совершенствования охраны лесов от пожаров проанализированы показатели фактической горимости лесов ГНПП «Бурабай» за период с 2008 по 2019 гг., а также специфика развития указанных пожаров и причины их возникновения. На основе собранных материалов предпринята попытка разработки предложений по совершенствова- нию охраны лесов от пожаров и минимизации послепожарного ущерба. Climate aridization observed in recent decades has led to an increase in the risk of occurrence and development of forest risk. This is especially evident in the southern regions where forest stands grow on the border with the steppe in extreme for them forest growing conditions. A decrease in the amount of precipitation, an increase in summer temperatures and wind increasing leads to an accelerated drying on soil combustible materials and, as a consequence, increases probability of entering into forests steppe fi res as well as transition of ground forest fi res to crown ones. Pine stands in SNNP «Burabay» are characterized by an increased fi re hazard. They have a high probability of transition of ground fi res upper ones and creation of a threat to settlement. In order to improve the protection of forests from fi res the indicators of actual rate of forest burning in SNNP «Burabay» for the period 2009 to 2019, as well as specifi c of these fi res development and the causes of their occurrence were analyzed. On the basis of the collected materials an attempt was made to develop proposals for improving the protection of forests from fi res and minimizing fi re hazardous damage.

Analysis of drought and wet season in Guilan province using SPI relationship and Markov chain model

Drought is an urgent environmental issue. Therefore, recognizing its characteristics is of great importance. The most common drought monitoring tool is the Drought Index. The SPI index is a well-known indicator of drought monitoring because of its simplicity, versatility and applicability in any type of climate. In order to investigate the dry matter and estimate its occurrence probability in Rasht city, which is located in the most rainy part of Iran, the time series of SPI were used in combination with Markov chain and the continuity, severity and frequency of dry and wet periods for the period 12.6.3 and 24 months old. The probability of equilibrium in each of the dry and wet conditions and the normal and the expected average expected drought and mildew were predicted, together with the average duration of its duration for different periods. The results showed that the drought share of mild droughts in all periods and droughts Severe is more than 6 months longer. Drought is the highest in the 3rd and 6th month period and is the lowest in the 24-month period. The continuation of drought is greater in the 12 and 24-month intervals, and the probability of transition from one state to another is increased in a longer time series. The probability of equilibrium is more than drought. The SPI profile matches the results of the Markov chain, so combining these two, while improving our ability to evaluate drought monitoring, increases the efficiency of the management system and resource planning.

Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models

A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then weakly rotating seeds. In experiments with perturbed sea surface temperature (SST) and $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 concentration from the historical values, the response of TCs follows the response of seeds. The distribution of seeds is explained by the distribution of the non-rotating convective clusters multiplied by a probability that they transition to seeds. The distribution of convective clusters is constrained by the large-scale vertical velocity and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with shifting Inter tropical Convergence Zones. The probability of transition to seeds is constrained by the large-scale vorticity via an analytical function, representing the relative importance between vortex stretching and vorticity advection, and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with uniform SST. The consistency between seed and TC responses breaks down substantially when the realistic SST is perturbed such that the spatial gradient is significantly enhanced or reduced. In such cases, the difference between the responses is explained by a change in the ventilation index, which influences the fraction of seeds that develop into TCs. The proposed TC-climate relationship serves as a framework to explain the diversity of TC projection across models and forcing scenarios.

Многофононная релаксация состояний 1s(T-=SUB=-2-=/SUB=-) однократно ионизованного донора селена в кремнии

The rate of multiphonon relaxation of 1s(T2) level in Se+ donors in silicon was estimated. The calculation is an initial approach to the problem, which uses the most simplified form of wave functions. For the probability of transition, we used a well-known expression from the literature by R. Pässler [R. Pässler. Czech. J. Phys. B, 24, 322 (1974)], obtained in the framework of the so-called “static coupling scheme”. The deformation potentials of optical and acoustic phonons were determined by a fitting procedure using published data on the luminescence spectrum of Se+ donors at the 1s(T2) — 1s(A1) transition and the Franck-Condon principle. The resulting estimate for the relaxation rate, 103 s-1, was five orders of magnitude less than the rate corresponding to the experimentally measured lifetime. The reason for the discrepancy with the experiment is an oversimplified model that does not take into account several factors, the main of which is the presence of quasi-local vibrational modes. Analysis of the luminescence spectrum at this transition leads to the conclusion that the energies of such vibrational modes lie in the range from 26 to 61 meV. For a satisfactory agreement with the experiment, it is necessary to complicate the model, taking into account the interaction with these modes.