scholarly journals Markov chains to determine the probability of climate change for planting selection in the city of Caxias do Sul

2022 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Bertholdo Vargas ◽  
Leandro Corso ◽  
Rolando Vargas Vallejos
Keyword(s):  
Algebraic Model ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Probability Of Transition ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
The City ◽  
Crop Planting

ABSTRACT: The Markov stochastic chain model and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) were used as tools to support decision-making for the best crop-planting choice in the city of Caxias do Sul, Brazil. Temperature and precipitation information were collected from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil for the period 1997-2017. The stochastic model was applied to obtain the probability of transition between a range of variations for temperature and precipitation. In the second phase of the study, an algebraic model was developed, making it possible to link the probability of the Markov chain transition matrix to the AHP judgment matrix. In the third phase, the AHP was applied as a tool to determine the most beneficial crop that could be planted for the studied city, considering the evaluated criteria: temperature, precipitation, and soil pH. The alternatives for crop planting were carrots, tomatoes, apples, and grapes. These were chosen because they are the most-planted crops in the city of Caxias do Sul. The ranking of the benefit-force results of applying the model for spring was carrots (0.297), apples (0.259), grapes (0.228), and tomatoes (0.215); for summer: grapes (0.261), tomatoes (0.261), apples (0.238), and carrots (0.230); for autumn: carrots (0.316), grapes (0.243), tomatoes (0.228), and apples (0.213); and for winter: carrots (0.327), tomatoes (0.235), apples (0.222), and grapes (0.216). Thus, it was concluded that farmers would have a better chance of success if they planted carrots during the spring, autumn, and winter, and grapes during the summer.

scholarly journals Fra fritidsfornøjelse til markedsføring - Esbjerg Kommune og idrætten

2004 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Verner Bruhn
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
World War ◽  
Modern City ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Building Housing ◽  
The First World War ◽  
The City ◽  
First World

From leisure enjoyment to marketing – Esbjerg municipal and sport.The city of Esbjerg was founded in 1873 as an extension of the establishment of the first export harbour on the west coast of Denmark. Between 1870 and 1901 the town’s population rose from about 500 to 13,300, and this explosive growth meant that all financial resources had to be devoted to building housing, roads and public institutions, not least schools for the newcomers’ many children. Esbjerg then grew throughout the 1900s into a modern city, which today has 82,000 inhabitants. The founding of the city coincided in time with the establishment of sport in Denmark, and the city’s first sports associations emerged between 1885 and 1900. After the First World War these associations grew both in number and in the range of clubs that were available for most known branches of sport. The Municipal’s attitude to sport can briefly be broken down into four phases: The first phase up until about 1918-19 was marked by the fact that all the Municipal’s energies were devoted to establishing an urban society, and that therefore if there was any support at all for sporting facilities it was only modest. The second phase from about 1920 to 1950 was characterised by collaboration between the Municipal and the amalgamation known as Esbjerg Idrætforbund (Esbjerg Sports Union). The first stadium was built in 1929 and during the following ten years sporting facilities were extended. The third phase from the end of the 1950s to about 1970 is a period marked by expansion with construction extending to new residential areas. At the same time the Sports Union became the Municipal’s partner in the administration of new laws on public support for youth and sports initiatives. The fourth and final phase to date made itself felt in the 1980s and 90s, when elite sport grew up alongside broader sporting practice. The Municipal continues its collaboration with the Sports Union, but now takes independent initiatives together with the elite clubs as a way to market Esbjerg as a modern city, setting up international prestige projects, for example, such as hosting the Youth Olympics in 1999.

scholarly journals Proposal of a Spatial Decision Support System architecture to estimate the consequences and costs of small meteorites impacts

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3013-3021
Author(s):  
E. Garbolino ◽  
P. Michel
Keyword(s):  
Daily Basis ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Spatial Decision Support System ◽  
Spatial Decision Support ◽  
Impact Simulation ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Celestial Bodies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract. On a frequency, depending on their size, small celestial bodies enter into the Earth atmosphere and collide with our planet. On a daily basis, the size is likely to be about 20 cm, while for monthly events the largest it may be is about 1 m. The last significant witnessed event occurred in 1908 in the Siberian area of the Tunguska. The forest was devastated over an area of 2000 km2. According to recent estimates, this kind of event could occur with a frequency of one per hundred to thousand years. Since the last century, the demography and the urbanisation have significantly increased. Although the probability that such an event occurs over a populated area remains small, if this happened, it could cause significant damages (industrial, shopping centres, recreational places, etc.). From the analysis of the data on meteorites that have impacted the Earth, of the orbital and size properties of small threatening bodies as well as their potential impact outcome, this paper proposes a methodology to estimate the damage resulting from the impact of objects of given sizes. The considered sizes are up to the maximum threshold for local damages (less than a hundred metres in diameter) on some given territory. This approach is based on an initial definition phase of collision scenarios. Then, a second phase consisting of the accurate modelling of the territory, taking into account the land-use, the spatial distribution of the populations and goods, and the characterisation of the biophysical vulnerability of the stakes using thresholds of dangerous phenomena (overpressures). The third phase is related to the impact simulation on the territory, the estimation of the stakes potentially exposed and the costs of the destruction. The aim of this paper is to make a demonstration of principle, using as a study case the city of Nice that benefits from a complete database of infrastructures.

Study of Interior Materials as Passive Fire Protection in Karaoke Building (Case Study: Masterpiece Signature Family KTV Medan)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-43
Author(s):  
Saras Ayu Faradita ◽  
Vinky Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Fire Protection ◽  
Analytical Hierarchy Process ◽  
Passive Protection ◽  
Fire Incident ◽  
Fire Disaster ◽  
Passive Fire Protection ◽  
Protection Systems ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
The City

The fire incident in karaoke buildings in Indonesia which claimed many lives has occurred several times. According to the National Academy of Science US, the smoke toxins that come out of the fire disaster cause 50-80% of deaths. Refers to the data, it is necessary to check further about the building material response to fire during a fire incident. Masterpiece Signature Karaoke is a karaoke building that classified as large and magnificent in the city of Medan which has various material so that it is necessary to study the interior material as passive fire protection. The purpose is to find out how to assess the reliability of fire passive protection regard to the interior materials and recommendations or descriptions of right interior material planning using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This method is efficacious to solve the problem of reliability in using interior materials as passive fire protection in Masterpiece Signature Family KTV Medan building with the results of an Adequate Level of reliability. Then, design recommendations were given for the use of interior materials in karaoke building to improve the reliability results to be better.The results are useful as information for other researchers and karaoke buildings regarding passive fire protection systems at the Masterpiece Signature Family KTV Medan.

PENERAPAN MODEL QUANTUM LEARNING UNTUK MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR AUTOCAD SISWA KELAS X TEKNIK PEMESINAN SMK NEGERI 1 STABAT

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Hasan Saragih
Keyword(s):  
Positive Response ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
First Grade ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
The Third ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Quantum Learning

This classroom research was conducted on the autocad instructions to the first grade of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat aiming at : (1) improving the student’ archievementon autocad instructional to the student of mechinary architecture class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat, (2) applying Quantum Learning Model to the students of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat, arising the positive response to autocad subject by applying Quantum Learning Model of the students of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat. The result shows that (1) by applying quantum learning model, the students’ achievement improves significantly. The improvement ofthe achievement of the 34 students is very satisfactory; on the first phase, 27 students passed (70.59%), 10 students failed (29.41%). On the second phase 27 students (79.41%) passed and 7 students (20.59%) failed. On the third phase 30 students (88.24%) passed and 4 students (11.76%) failed. The application of quantum learning model in SMK Negeri 1 Stabat proved satisfying. This was visible from the activeness of the students from phase 1 to 3. The activeness average of the students was 74.31% on phase 1,81.35% on phase 2, and 83.63% on phase 3. (3) The application of the quantum learning model on teaching autocad was very positively welcome by the students of mechinary class of SMK Negeri 1 Stabat. On phase 1 the improvement was 81.53% . It improved to 86.15% on phase 3. Therefore, The improvement ofstudent’ response can be categorized good.

Mixed-Methods Evaluation as Scaffold to the Development of a Mobile Health Application to Support the Prescription of Wheelchairs and Postural Support Devices (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana Klein ◽  
Roseli de Deus Lopes ◽  
Rodrigo Suigh
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Mobile Health ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Third ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Mixed Methods Evaluation ◽  
Usability Tests ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Postural Support ◽  
Support Devices

BACKGROUND EasySeating is a mobile health (mHealth) app that supports the prescription of wheelchair and postural support devices (WPSD). It can be used by occupational therapists (OT) and physiotherapists (PT) who prescribe WPSD. The app offers a standardization of the prescription procedure, showing images, metrics and details that guide the prescriber to decide on the best equipment. It was developed with an iterative mixed-methods evaluation approach. Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the processes involved in the prescription of WPSD and to propose, develop and evaluate a mHealth to support OT and PT prescribers. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to investigate the processes involved in the prescription of WPSD and to propose, develop and evaluate a mHealth to support OT and PT prescribers. METHODS This study was divided into three phases and was carried out as an iterative process composed of user consulting/testing (using a mixed-methods evaluation approach), system (re)design and software development. The first phase consisted of the collection of qualitative and quantitative data to map and understand the users requirements and of the development of the first prototype (v1) of the app. This data collection was performed through semi-structured interviews with 14 OT and PT prescribers, 5 specialized technicians and 5 WPSD users. The second phase aimed at improving the overall functionality of the app and consisted in the development, test and evaluation of the prototypes v1, v2, v3 and v4. A total of 59 prescribers tested and evaluated these prototypes by means of open interviews, semi-structured questionnaires and focus groups. The third phase focused in the usability aspects of the app. It consisted in the development and test of the prototype v5. Eight technology specialists assessed its usability through heuristics evaluation. RESULTS Data collected in phase one indicated there is a lack of standardization on the prescription of postural support devices (PSD). A divergent nomenclature for the PSDs was also found and classified in eight categories. These information guided the development of the first prototype of the EasySeating app. Phase two results pointed that the prescribers value the insertion of the app into their clinical practice, as it accelerates and increases the quality of the evaluation process and improves the organization of the prescription information. Significant suggestions for the improvement of the app were given during the users tests, including the use of images to represent the PSDs. The usability tests from the third phase revealed two strong issues that must be solved: the need of greater feedback and failures in the persistence of the input data. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrated that there is a lack of systematization of the WPSD prescription process. The evaluation of the developed EasySeating app demonstrated that there is a potential to standardize, integrate and organize the WPSD prescription information, supporting and facilitating the decision making process of the prescribers. CLINICALTRIAL This study was approved by the Research Ethics Board of the Universidade de São Paulo (registered protocol n°53929516.6.0000.0065) URL - http://plataformabrasil.saude.gov.br/login.jsf

Foucault as Superauthor

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-125
Keyword(s):  
Free Speech ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Contemporary Society ◽  
Sovereign Power ◽  
Ancient Greek ◽  
Main Motivation ◽  
Critical Attitude ◽  
The Third ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Lecture Courses

Three phases in Foucault’s examination of authorship and free speech were essential to him throughout his life. They can be linked to such texts as the three lectures “What is an Author?” (first phase), “What is Critique?,” and “What is Revolution?” (second phase), and the two lecture courses, “Fearless Speech,” and “The Courage of Truth” (third phase). Initially, Foucault merely describes the founders of discursivity (hence, “superauthors”), among whom he reckoned only Marx and Freud, as the sole alternative to his own conceptualization of the author function, which is exhibited en masse in contemporary society. He then modifies his views on superauthorship by making Kant the paradigm and by linking his own concept of free speech to a Kan-tian critical attitude. However, Foucault claims only the half of Kant’s philosophical legacy that is related to the study of the ontology of the self.The article advances the hypothesis that the sovereign power of speech, which can be found in Marx and Heidegger and in generally in the concept of “superauthorship,” becomes unacceptable for Foucault. During the third phase, the danger of a tyrannical use of free speech compels Foucault to make a number of fruitful but questionable choices in his work. He focuses on a single aspect of free speech in which a speaker is in a weaker position and therefore has to overcome his fear in order to tell the truth. Foucault associates this kind of free speech with the ancient Greek notion of parrhesia, which according to his interpretation means “fearless speech”; however, this reading is not always supported by the ancient Greek sources. Foucault’s deliberations bring him to the radical conclusion that free speech transforms into performative “aesthetics of existence.” Foucault’s main motivation for pursuing this line of thought all through his life was to investigate his own abilities and powers as an author

scholarly journals The microbiological condition of public air in the city during autumn and winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 203-209
Author(s):  
Wioletta Adamus-Białek ◽  
Aneta Filipiak ◽  
Monika Wawszczak ◽  
Aleksandra Woźniak ◽  
Stanisław Głuszek
Keyword(s):  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
The City

scholarly journals A New Integrated Approach for Municipal Landfill Siting Based on Urban Physical Growth Prediction: A Case Study Mashhad Metropolis in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 949
Author(s):  
Salman Qureshi ◽  
Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh ◽  
Najmeh Neysani Samany ◽  
Foad Minaei ◽  
Mehdi Homaee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Physical Growth ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Markov Chain Method ◽  
Physical Expansion ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
The City

Due to irregular and uncontrolled expansion of cities in developing countries, currently operational landfill sites cannot be used in the long-term, as people will be living in proximity to these sites and be exposed to unhygienic circumstances. Hence, this study aims at proposing an integrated approach for determining suitable locations for landfills while considering their physical expansion. The proposed approach utilizes the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) to weigh the sets of identified landfill location criteria. Furthermore, the weighted linear combination (WLC) approach was applied for the elicitation of the proper primary locations. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) and cellular automation-based Markov chain method were used to predict urban growth. To demonstrate the applicability of the developed approach, it was applied to a case study, namely the city of Mashhad in Iran, where suitable sites for landfills were identified considering the urban growth in different geographical directions for this city by 2048. The proposed approach could be of use for policymakers, urban planners, and other decision-makers to minimize uncertainty arising from long-term resource allocation.

scholarly journals Structural and Thermodynamic Analysis of the Resistance Development to Pimodivir (VX-787), the Clinical Inhibitor of Cap Binding to PB2 Subunit of Influenza A Polymerase

Molecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1007
Author(s):  
Jiří Gregor ◽  
Kateřina Radilová ◽  
Jiří Brynda ◽  
Jindřich Fanfrlík ◽  
Jan Konvalinka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermodynamic Analysis ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Polymerase Activity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Missense Mutations ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Resistance Development ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Major Mutation ◽  
Control And Prevention

Influenza A virus (IAV) encodes a polymerase composed of three subunits: PA, with endonuclease activity, PB1 with polymerase activity and PB2 with host RNA five-prime cap binding site. Their cooperation and stepwise activation include a process called cap-snatching, which is a crucial step in the IAV life cycle. Reproduction of IAV can be blocked by disrupting the interaction between the PB2 domain and the five-prime cap. An inhibitor of this interaction called pimodivir (VX-787) recently entered the third phase of clinical trial; however, several mutations in PB2 that cause resistance to pimodivir were observed. First major mutation, F404Y, causing resistance was identified during preclinical testing, next the mutation M431I was identified in patients during the second phase of clinical trials. The mutation H357N was identified during testing of IAV strains at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We set out to provide a structural and thermodynamic analysis of the interactions between cap-binding domain of PB2 wild-type and PB2 variants bearing these mutations and pimodivir. Here we present four crystal structures of PB2-WT, PB2-F404Y, PB2-M431I and PB2-H357N in complex with pimodivir. We have thermodynamically analysed all PB2 variants and proposed the effect of these mutations on thermodynamic parameters of these interactions and pimodivir resistance development. These data will contribute to understanding the effect of these missense mutations to the resistance development and help to design next generation inhibitors.

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