scholarly journals Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (44) ◽  
pp. e2107306118
Author(s):  
Florie Giacona ◽  
Nicolas Eckert ◽  
Christophe Corona ◽  
Robin Mainieri ◽  
Samuel Morin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Age ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Bayesian Techniques ◽  
Vosges Mountains ◽  
Mountain Environments ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Avalanche Behavior ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Snow Conditions

Snow is highly sensitive to atmospheric warming. However, because of the lack of sufficiently long snow avalanche time series and statistical techniques capable of accounting for the numerous biases inherent to sparse and incomplete avalanche records, the evolution of process activity in a warming climate remains little known. Filling this gap requires innovative approaches that put avalanche activity into a long-term context. Here, we combine extensive historical records and Bayesian techniques to construct a 240-y chronicle of snow avalanching in the Vosges Mountains (France). We show evidence that the transition from the late Little Ice Age to the early twentieth century (i.e., 1850 to 1920 CE) was not only characterized by local winter warming in the order of +1.35 °C but that this warming also resulted in a more than sevenfold reduction in yearly avalanche numbers, a severe shrinkage of avalanche size, and shorter avalanche seasons as well as in a reduction of the extent of avalanche-prone terrain. Using a substantial corpus of snow and climate proxy sources, we explain this abrupt shift with increasingly scarcer snow conditions with the low-to-medium elevations of the Vosges Mountains (600 to 1,200 m above sea level [a.s.l.]). As a result, avalanches migrated upslope, with only a relict activity persisting at the highest elevations (release areas >1,200 m a.s.l.). This abrupt, unambiguous response of snow avalanche activity to warming provides valuable information to anticipate likely changes in avalanche behavior in higher mountain environments under ongoing and future warming.

scholarly journals The Little Ice Age, the climatic background of present-day warming in Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Oliva
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The Little Ice Age (LIA) constitutes the coldest period of the last millennia in Europe. A wide range of natural and historical records show evidence of colder climate conditions between the 14th and 19th centuries, together with a higher frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events. During these centuries, temperatures and precipitations showed different spatio-temporal patterns across Europe. This Special Issue includes eleven scientific works focusing on the climate regime, environmental dynamics as well as socio-economic implications of the LIA in Europe. Besides, this paper also identifies key guidelines for future research on the LIA causes and its consequences on environmental systems in the European continent.

scholarly journals The submerged footprint of Perito Moreno glacier

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Lodolo ◽  
Federica Donda ◽  
Jorge Lozano ◽  
Luca Baradello ◽  
Roberto Romeo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Current Position ◽  
Seismic Profiles ◽  
Glacier System ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Glacier Front ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Glacier Advance ◽  
First Time ◽  
South Patagonia

Abstract Perito Moreno is the most famous calving glacier of the South Patagonia Icefield, the largest temperate glacier system of the Southern Hemisphere. Unlike most of the glaciers in the region that have strongly retreated in recent decades, the position of Perito Moreno glacier front remained relatively unchanged in the last century. However, earliest photographic documents show that, at the end of the nineteenth century, the front was ca. 800 m behind the current position. There is no reliable information about the positions of the Perito Moreno front in earlier times. Here we show evidence of two subaqueous moraine systems both in the Canal de Los Témpanos and in the Brazo Rico, the two arms of Lago Argentino along which Perito Moreno glacier has flowed over time. These moraines, identified for the first time in the Canal de Los Témpanos from bathymetric and high-resolution seismic profiles, mark the position of the largest glacier advance, tentatively correlated with the moraines of the “Herminita advance” identified and dated onland. We interpret these bedforms as the evidence of the most pronounced advance of Perito Moreno glacier during the mid-Holocene cooling event that characterized this sector of the Southern Hemisphere. This study highlights the importance of subaqueous glacial bedforms, representing decisive records of the glacial history and palaeoclimate, which could help unveiling the origin of the different behavior of glaciers like Perito Moreno that in a warming climate are relatively stable.

Testing the influence of snow and meteorological conditions on snow avalanche deposit volumes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hippolyte Kern ◽  
Vincent Jomelli ◽  
Nicolas Eckert ◽  
Delphine Grancher
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Wet Snow ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Annual Time

<p>Snow avalanche deposit volume is an important characteristic that determines vulnerability to snow avalanche. However, there is insufficient knowledge about snow and meteorological variables controlling deposit volumes. Our study focuses on the analysis of 1986 deposit volumes from 182 paths located in different regions of the French Alps including Queyras, and Maurienne valleys, between 2003 and 2017. This work uses data from the Permanent Avalanche Survey (EPA) database, an inventory of avalanche events occurring at well-known, delineated and mapped paths in France. We investigated relationships between snow deposit volumes and meteorological quantities, such as precipitation and temperature determined from SAFRAN reanalyses and snow-depth and wet snow-depth estimated from CROCUS reanalyses at a daily time scale at 2100m a.s.l. Analysis was conducted at an annual and seasonal time scale considering winter (November-February) and spring (March-May) between the mean deposit volumes and the mean meteorological and snow conditions.<span> </span></p><p>Results do not show any significant relationship between deposit volumes and meteorological or snow conditions at an annual time scale or for spring season. However, correlations between deposit volumes and meteorological and snow variables are high in winter (R<sup>2</sup>=0.78). The best model includes two snow variables: mean snow-depth and maximal wet snow-depth. We suggest that these two important snow variables reflect variations in the snow cover characteristics later influencing the nature of the flow and the deposit volumes. Dividing the studied paths sample into several classes according to their morphology (i.e: surface area or mean slope) increases the significance of the relationship for both seasons and highlights more complex relationships with meteorological and snow variables.</p>

Snow on Arctic sea ice in a warming climate as simulated in CESM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda Webster ◽  
Alice DuVivier ◽  
Marika Holland ◽  
David Bailey
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
System Model ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Snow Distribution ◽  
Snow Conditions

<p>Snow on Arctic sea ice is important for several reasons: it creates a habitat for microorganisms and mammals, it changes sea-ice growth and melt, and it affects the speed at which ships and people can travel through sea ice. Therefore, investigating how snow on Arctic sea ice may change in a warming climate is useful for anticipating its potential effects on ecosystems, sea ice, and socioeconomic activities. Here, we use experiments from two versions of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to study how snow conditions change over time. Comparison with observations indicates that CESM2 produces an overly-thin, overly-uniform snow distribution, while CESM1-LE produces a variable, excessively-thick snow cover. The 1950-2050 snow depth trend in CESM2 is 75% smaller than in CESM1-LE due to CESM2 having less snow. In CESM1-LE, long-lasting, thick sea ice, cool summers, and excessive summer snowfall facilitate a thicker, longer-lasting snow cover. In a warming climate, CESM2 shows that snow on Arctic sea ice will: (1) have greater, earlier spring melt, (2) accumulate less in summer-autumn, (3) sublimate more, and (4) cause marginally more snow-ice formation. CESM2 reveals that snow-free summers can occur ~30-60 years before an ice-free central Arctic, which may promote faster sea-ice melt.</p>

scholarly journals A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 767-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oerlemans ◽  
W. J. J. van Pelt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Mass Budget ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Model Study

Abstract. The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produce the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulate the observed magnitude of the 1978 surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m year−1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and thereby to increase the ablation area, causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a faster retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude. If the equilibrium line were lowered by only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into Woodfjorddalen until, after 2000 years, it would reach Woodfjord and calving would slow down the advance. The bed topography of Abrahamsenbreen is not known and was therefore inferred from the slope and length of the glacier. The value of the plasticity parameter needed to do this was varied by +20 and −20%. After recalibration the same climate change experiments were performed, showing that a thinner glacier (higher bedrock in this case) in a warming climate retreats somewhat faster.

Pressure of Snow Avalanches against Buildings

2011 ◽  
Vol 82 ◽  
pp. 392-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eloise Bovet ◽  
Bernardino Chiaia ◽  
Valerio De Biagi ◽  
Barbara Frigo
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Structural Investigation ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Impact Pressure ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Snow Avalanches ◽  
Avalanche Behavior ◽  
Qualitative Measure

The paper aims to analyse the e ects of topography and building position on themagnitude of pressure exerted by snow avalanches against buildings, through a structural backanalysis and numerical uid-dynamics. Studying a real snow avalanche impact occurred in2008 which destroyed a village in Valsavarenche (Aosta Valley - IT), the attention is focused onthe avalanche ow deviation caused by the destructive interaction with a rst building, whichprotected part of a second building beyond it. By means of photographical and in situ survey,a detailed description of avalanche geometrical, dynamical and physical properties is outlined.A structural investigation, based both on debris arrangement and on measurements on theundamaged parts of buildings is also carried out.Thus, a back analysis is carried out in order to de ne collapse dynamics and to estimate theupper and the lower bound of impact pressure. Afterwards, numerical uid-dynamical analysesare performed to simulate di erent impact scenarios and to understand the e ects of obstacleson avalanche behavior: a qualitative measure of the interactions among buildings, which maymutually protect one another, is obtained.

scholarly journals Holocene Environmental Variability in Southern Greenland Inferred from Lake Sediments

2002 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Kaplan ◽  
Alexander P. Wolfe ◽  
Gifford H. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
High Amplitude ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Lake Productivity ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Region ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractSediments from Qipisarqo Lake provide a continuous Holocene paleoenvironmental record from southern Greenland. Following deglaciation and glacio-isostatic emergence of the basin from the sea ∼9100 cal yr B.P., proxies of lake paleoproductivity, including biogenic silica and organic matter, increased markedly until 6000 cal yr B.P. and thereafter remained stable over the ensuing warm three millennia. Subsequent decreases in these proxies, most dramatically between 3000 and 2000 cal yr B.P., show the lake's responses to initial Neoglacial cooling. Intervals of ameliorated limnological conditions occurred between 1300 and 900 and between 500 and 280 cal yr B.P., briefly interrupting the decreasing trend in productivity that culminated in the Little Ice Age. Increased lake productivity during the latter half of the 20th century, which reflects the limnological response to circum-arctic warming, still has not reached peak Holocene values. The Neoglacial climate of the last 2000 yr includes the most rapid high-amplitude environmental changes of the past nine millennia. The Norse thus migrated around the North Atlantic Ocean region in the most environmentally unstable period since deglaciation. Lacustrine sediment records provide a context with which to consider future environmental changes in the Labrador Sea region. In particular, any future warming will be superposed on a regional climate system that is currently exhibiting highly unstable behavior at submillennial timescales.

scholarly journals The Cyclical Sine Model Explanation for Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale Erwin Nierode
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Natural Occurrence ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Model Explanation

Abstract This paper will show that the global warming/climate change underway on Earth today is a totally natural occurrence with solid scientific and historical support. The Earth is currently in the upswing part of its normal temperature cycle. Very warm (Medieval Warming) and very cold (Little Ice Age) cycles have been historically documented on Earth for at least the last 3,000 years. This cyclicity has a repeated period of approximately every 1,500 years [1]. The explanation for the Earth’s temperature increases since 1850 is captured in a mathematical model called the Cyclical Sine Model. This model fits past climate cycles, measured temperatures since 1850, and correlates closely with the thousand year cyclicity of solar activity from 14C/12C ratio studies [2], and Bond [3] Atlantic drift ice cycles. This model also agrees with sunspot history, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In addition, this model quantitively explains the time span 1945-1975 when an impending ice age was feared [4]. Earth temperatures are controlled by three solar cycles of approximately 1,000, 70, and 11 years. The Cyclical Sine Model is the best explanation for the Earth’s recent temperature increases.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate warming on reindeer herding require new land-use strategies

AMBIO ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunhild C. Rosqvist ◽  
Niila Inga ◽  
Pia Eriksson
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Sweden ◽  
Reindeer Herding ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Societal Adaptation

AbstractClimate in the Arctic has warmed at a more rapid pace than the global average over the past few decades leading to weather, snow, and ice situations previously unencountered. Reindeer herding is one of the primary livelihoods for Indigenous peoples throughout the Arctic. To understand how the new climate state forces societal adaptation, including new management strategies and needs for preserved, interconnected, undisturbed grazing areas, we coupled changes in temperature, precipitation, and snow depth recorded by automatic weather stations to herder observations of reindeer behaviour in grazing areas of the Laevas Sámi reindeer herding community, northern Sweden. Results show that weather and snow conditions strongly determine grazing opportunities and therefore reindeer response. We conclude that together with the cumulative effects of increased pressures from alternative land use activities, the non-predictable environmental conditions that are uniquely part of the warming climate seriously challenge future reindeer herding in northern Sweden.

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