The evolution of happiness pre and peri-COVID-19: A Markov Switching Dynamic Regression Model

Happiness levels often fluctuate from one day to the next, and an exogenous shock such as a pandemic can likely disrupt pre-existing happiness dynamics. This paper fits a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the dynamic patterns of happiness levels before and during a pandemic. The estimated parameters from the MSDR model include each state’s mean and duration, volatility and transition probabilities. Once these parameters have been estimated, we use the one-step method to predict the unobserved states’ evolution over time. This gives us unique insights into the evolution of happiness. Furthermore, as maximising happiness is a policy priority, we determine the factors that can contribute to the probability of increasing happiness levels. We empirically test these models using New Zealand’s daily happiness data for May 2019 –November 2020. The results show that New Zealand seems to have two regimes, an unhappy and happy regime. In 2019 the happy regime dominated; thus, the probability of being unhappy in the next time period (day) occurred less frequently, whereas the opposite is true for 2020. The higher frequency of time periods with a probability of being unhappy in 2020 mostly correspond to pandemic events. Lastly, we find the factors positively and significantly related to the probability of being happy after lockdown to be jobseeker support payments and international travel. On the other hand, lack of mobility is significantly and negatively related to the probability of being happy.

The more, the better? Forecasting gains from high-frequency housing prices in a Markov-switching dynamic factor model

This paper extracts housing boom-bust cycle signals from metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level housing prices using a Markov-switching dynamic factor model. To mitigate the estimation bias, it utilizes high-frequency housing prices that follow the methodology of the monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. The housing bust phases specified from weekly and daily housing prices precede those based on monthly prices by approximately 2 years. MSAs with top signal-to-noise ratios offer greater marginal contributions to improvements in forecasting housing cycles than MSAs with bottom ratios for all frequencies. The results highlight the importance of indicator quality and provide evidence against “The more, the better” since incorporating more MSA-level housing prices into housing factors does not guarantee more satisfactory housing cycle forecasts.

Electrolyte-Dependent Modification of Resistive Switching in Anodic Hafnia

Anodic HfO2 memristors grown in phosphate, borate, or citrate electrolytes and formed on sputtered Hf with Pt top electrodes are characterized at fundamental and device levels. The incorporation of electrolyte species deep into anodic memristors concomitant with HfO2 crystalline structure conservation is demonstrated by elemental analysis and atomic scale imaging. Upon electroforming, retention and endurance tests are performed on memristors. The use of borate results in the weakest memristive performance while the citrate demonstrates clear superior memristive properties with multilevel switching capabilities and high read/write cycling in the range of 106. Low temperature heating applied to memristors shows a direct influence on their behavior mainly due to surface release of water. Citrate-based memristors show remarkable properties independent on device operation temperatures up to 100 °C. The switching dynamic of anodic HfO2 memristors is discussed by analyzing high resolution transmission electron microscope images. Full and partial conductive filaments are visualized, and apart from their modeling, a concurrency of filaments is additionally observed. This is responsible for the multilevel switching mechanism in HfO2 and is related to device failure mechanisms.

A Markov-switching dynamic regression analysis of the asymmetries related to the determinants of US crude oil production between 1982 and 2019

The structural changes brought about by shale oil revolution have inspired this paper of which the aim is to analyze the potential asymmetries related to the determinants of crude oil production in the USA. Thus, using a Markov-switching dynamic regression model in which parameters change when oil production moves from one regime to the other, it is found that for both oil production and oil relative importance, the regime that was dominant during the 1980s and the early 1990s when oil production in the USA was substantially high is the same regime that has once again become dominant in the decade corresponding to the shale oil revolution. Furthermore, the study reveals the existence of asymmetries in the relationship between US crude oil production and both manufacturing production and the consumer price index. Asymmetries are also found in the relationship between the relative importance US crude oil and manufacturing production. Finally, it is found that the intercept and the variance parameter also vary from one regime to the other, thus justifying the use of regime-dependent models.

Modelling Deep Habits in Iranian Economy using a Markov-Switching DSGE Model

This paper attempts to solve and estimate a Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model with deep habit-adjusted consumption in both private and public sectors for Iranian data from 1991 to 2015. A comprehensive New Keynesian Philips Curve (NKPC) is also extracted, including stock of private and public habit consumption in firm's profit maximization problem as a constraint. The model is estimated both with constant parameters and regime switching in monetary reaction function, and it is concluded that the model with regime switching is able to fit the Iranian data better. The results of estimating parameters indicate that the degree of habit formation, together with the persistence of habit stock, are significant parameters. However, it is shown that deep habits do not succeed in reducing inflation in Iranian economy in reaction to a monetary shock. The results confirm that consumption increases and inflation decreases, simultaneously in response to fiscal shocks.