scholarly journals The evolution of happiness pre and peri-COVID-19: A Markov Switching Dynamic Regression Model

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0259579
Author(s):  
Stephanie Rossouw ◽  
Talita Greyling ◽  
Tamanna Adhikari

Happiness levels often fluctuate from one day to the next, and an exogenous shock such as a pandemic can likely disrupt pre-existing happiness dynamics. This paper fits a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the dynamic patterns of happiness levels before and during a pandemic. The estimated parameters from the MSDR model include each state’s mean and duration, volatility and transition probabilities. Once these parameters have been estimated, we use the one-step method to predict the unobserved states’ evolution over time. This gives us unique insights into the evolution of happiness. Furthermore, as maximising happiness is a policy priority, we determine the factors that can contribute to the probability of increasing happiness levels. We empirically test these models using New Zealand’s daily happiness data for May 2019 –November 2020. The results show that New Zealand seems to have two regimes, an unhappy and happy regime. In 2019 the happy regime dominated; thus, the probability of being unhappy in the next time period (day) occurred less frequently, whereas the opposite is true for 2020. The higher frequency of time periods with a probability of being unhappy in 2020 mostly correspond to pandemic events. Lastly, we find the factors positively and significantly related to the probability of being happy after lockdown to be jobseeker support payments and international travel. On the other hand, lack of mobility is significantly and negatively related to the probability of being happy.

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Rocío Hernández-Sanjaime ◽  
Martín González ◽  
Antonio Peñalver ◽  
Jose J. López-Espín

The presence of unaccounted heterogeneity in simultaneous equation models (SEMs) is frequently problematic in many real-life applications. Under the usual assumption of homogeneity, the model can be seriously misspecified, and it can potentially induce an important bias in the parameter estimates. This paper focuses on SEMs in which data are heterogeneous and tend to form clustering structures in the endogenous-variable dataset. Because the identification of different clusters is not straightforward, a two-step strategy that first forms groups among the endogenous observations and then uses the standard simultaneous equation scheme is provided. Methodologically, the proposed approach is based on a variational Bayes learning algorithm and does not need to be executed for varying numbers of groups in order to identify the one that adequately fits the data. We describe the statistical theory, evaluate the performance of the suggested algorithm by using simulated data, and apply the two-step method to a macroeconomic problem.


2003 ◽  
Vol 14 (08) ◽  
pp. 1087-1105 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHONGCHENG WANG ◽  
YONGMING DAI

A new twelfth-order four-step formula containing fourth derivatives for the numerical integration of the one-dimensional Schrödinger equation has been developed. It was found that by adding multi-derivative terms, the stability of a linear multi-step method can be improved and the interval of periodicity of this new method is larger than that of the Numerov's method. The numerical test shows that the new method is superior to the previous lower orders in both accuracy and efficiency and it is specially applied to the problem when an increasing accuracy is requested.


1987 ◽  
Vol 120 ◽  
pp. 103-105
Author(s):  
J. Le Bourlot ◽  
E. Roueff

We present a new calculation of intercombination transition probabilities between levels X1Σg+ and a 3Πu of the C2 molecule. Starting from experimental energy levels, we calculate RKR potential curves using Leroy's Near Dissociation Expansion (NDE) method; these curves give us wave functions for all levels of interest. We then compute the energy matrix for the four lowest states of C2, taking into account Spin-Orbit coupling between a 3Πu and A 1Πu on the one hand and X 1Σ+g and b 3Σg− on the other. First order wave functions are then derived by diagonalization. Einstein emission transition probabilities of the Intercombination lines are finally obtained.


Author(s):  
Martin Aranguren

Abstract Background In the context of the COVID-19 emergency, the concern has been raised that people may compensate the reduction in risk ensured by mask use with an increase in risk induced by lower adherence to physical distancing rules. Purpose The paper investigates if people compensate risk in this manner when their interaction partner wears a face mask, examining if risk compensation further depends on gender, signaled social status and perceived race. Methods An experiment was conducted in two waves (June, n = 1396 and September 2020, n = 1326) in front of the traffic lights of four busy roads in Paris. A confederate asked a randomly selected pedestrian for directions following a script and keeping the recommended distance. Confederates were locally recognizable as Blacks or Whites and alternatively presented themselves with a costume indicative of high or low social status. An observer recorded whether the pedestrian kept the recommended distance. Results Both in June and September, men are less likely to comply with the distancing rule when the confederate wears the face mask, and particularly so when the confederate signals high status. When the confederate wears the mask, female pedestrians observe less the one-meter rule in September than in June. Conclusions Men’s risk compensatory behavior is constant over time. In contrast, women’s depends on the time period.


2021 ◽  
Vol 502 (3) ◽  
pp. 3780-3799
Author(s):  
W Li ◽  
A M Amarsi ◽  
A Papoulia ◽  
J Ekman ◽  
P Jönsson

ABSTRACT Accurate atomic data are essential for opacity calculations and for abundance analyses of the Sun and other stars. The aim of this work is to provide accurate and extensive results of energy levels and transition data for C i–iv. The Multiconfiguration Dirac–Hartree–Fock and relativistic configuration interaction methods were used in this work. To improve the quality of the wavefunctions and reduce the relative differences between length and velocity forms for transition data involving high Rydberg states, alternative computational strategies were employed by imposing restrictions on the electron substitutions when constructing the orbital basis for each atom and ion. Transition data, for example, weighted oscillator strengths and transition probabilities, are given for radiative electric dipole (E1) transitions involving levels up to 1s22s22p6s for C i, up to 1s22s27f for C ii, up to 1s22s7f for C iii, and up to 1s28g for C iv. Using the difference between the transition rates in length and velocity gauges as an internal validation, the average uncertainties of all presented E1 transitions are estimated to be 8.05 per cent, 7.20 per cent, 1.77 per cent, and 0.28 per cent, respectively, for C i–iv. Extensive comparisons with available experimental and theoretical results are performed and good agreement is observed for most of the transitions. In addition, the C i data were employed in a re-analysis of the solar carbon abundance. The new transition data give a line-by-line dispersion similar to the one obtained when using transition data that are typically used in stellar spectroscopic applications today.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rainer Baule ◽  
Hannes Wilke

This paper bridges two recent studies on the role of analysts to provide new and relevant information to investors. On the one hand, the contribution of analysts to long-term price discovery on the US market is rather low. Considering earnings per share forecasts as the main output of analysts’ reports, their information share amounts to only 4.6% on average. On the other hand, trading strategies set up on these EPS forecasts are quite profitable. Self-financing portfolios yield excess returns of more than 5% over the S&P 100 index for a time period of 36 years, which is persistent after controlling for the well-known risk factors. In this paper, we discuss the link between the low information shares and the high abnormal returns. We argue that information shares of analysts cannot be higher, because otherwise their forecasts would lead to excessively profitable trading strategies which are very unlikely to persist over such a long period of time.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruonan Wang ◽  
Jiancai Du ◽  
Jiangping Li ◽  
Yajuan Zhang ◽  
Jing Wen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Influenza remains a serious global public health problem and a substantial economic burden. The dynamic pattern of influenza differs considerably among geographic and climatological areas, however, the factors underlying these differences are still uncertain. The aim of this paper is to characterize the dynamic pattern of influenza and its potential influencing factors in Northwest China. Methods: Influenza cases in Ningxia China from Nov. 2013 to Jun. 2020 were served as influenza proxy. Firstly, the baseline seasonal ARIMA model of influenza cases and seasonal pattern were analyzed. Then, the dynamic regression model was used to identifying the potential influencing factors of influenza. In addition, the wavelet analysis was further used to explore the coherence between influenza cases and these significant influencing factors.Results: The high risk periods of influenza in Ningxia presented a winter cycle outbreaks pattern and the fastigium came in January. The seasonal ARIMA(0,0,1)(1,1,0)12 was the optimal baseline forecast model. The dynamic regression models and wavelet analysis indicated that PM2.5 and public awareness are significantly positively associated with influenza, as well as minimum temperature is negatively associated. Conclusion: Meteorological (minimum temperature), pollution (PM2.5) and social (public awareness) factors may significantly associated with influenza in Northwest China. Decreasing PM2.5 concentration or increasing the public awareness prior to the fastigium of influenza may be the serviceable methods to reduce the disease risk of influenza, which have an important implication for policy-makers to choose an optimal time for influenza prevention campaign.


2008 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
pp. 847-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. FENTON ◽  
H. E. CLOUGH ◽  
P. J. DIGGLE ◽  
S. J. EVANS ◽  
H. C. DAVISON ◽  
...  

SUMMARYUsing data from a cohort study conducted by the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA), evidence of spatial clustering at distances up to 30 km was found for S. Agama and S. Dublin (P values of 0·001) and borderline evidence was found for spatial clustering of S. Typhimurium (P=0·077). The evolution of infection status of study farms over time was modelled using a Markov Chain model with transition probabilities describing changes in status at each of four visits, allowing for the effect of sampling visit. The degree of geographical clustering of infection, having allowed for temporal effects, was assessed by comparing the residual deviance from a model including a measure of recent neighbourhood infection levels with one excluding this variable. The number of cases arising within a defined distance and time period of an index case was higher than expected. This provides evidence for spatial and spatio-temporal clustering, which suggests either a contagious process (e.g. through direct or indirect farm-to-farm transmission) or geographically localized environmental and/or farm factors which increase the risk of infection. The results emphasize the different epidemiology of the three Salmonella serovars investigated.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 131-139
Author(s):  
Behramand Durrani ◽  
◽  
Riffat Alam

This present study analyzes the role played by the media during the controversy between Government of Pakistan and its Supreme Court in 2012. This study is particularly focused on the issues pertinent to the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) case. It employed content analysis as research study and quantitatively examined the columns in the Pakistani newspapers; including, Dawn and Daily Jang for the one year time period in the year 2012. A conflicting relationship has been found between the government and judiciary concerning the National reconciliation ordinance (NRO). It was concluded that Dawn and Daily Jang, both newspapers, follow the same agenda about the NRO issue as both of these newspapers offered negative coverage of this issue. Compared to Jang, Dawn was more inclined to the negative framing of judiciary, and Jang was inclined to the negative reporting of government performance. Hence, the Pakistani Print media has framed the issues negatively between the government and the judiciary. Frequent negative slants were observed in Urdu newspaper as compared to English newspaper.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Krunoslav Puškar

This thesis deals with the analysis and description of the historical and contemporary anthroponymy of the Kalnik area of the Prigorje region on the basis of both archival and field research carried out throughout a longer period of time. Since there has not been any extensive onomastic reasearch in the very area to date, our goal was to determine the influence of linguistic and extralinguistic changes in the reaserched onomastic categories. The introduction of this thesis provides the geographical, sociohistorical, demographical and linguistic context of the researched area, whereas the subsequent chapters provide a list and analysis of confirmed first names, personal and family nicknames, as well as family names of the reaserched area. First names were researched during nine time periods with a duration of five years, beginning from 1802 and ending in 2014. Because of a wide researched area, we limited our research on the anthroponymic repertoire of the city of Križevci, in which 3020 first names (1579 male and 1441 female names) were confirmed. In the 19th century, during five analysed time periods, 1519 first names were confirmed, out of which 814 male and 705 female names, which were mostly simple based on their structure (91.64%). Concerning the provenance of the first names, we established that almost all names were either Christian names or translated Christian names and that national names occur very rarely and sporadically, only in the second half of the 19th century. By comparison, in the 20th and 21st century, during the last four time periods, 1501 first names have been confirmed, out of which 765 were male and 736 female names. Concerning their structure, they turned out to be mostly compound first names in the 1946- 1950 time period (55.69%), whereas in the 2010-2014 time period they turned out to be predominantly single (97.02%). Concerning their provenance, in the 1946-1950 time period 48.39% of male and 57.58% of female national names were confirmed, whereas in the last time period male national names amount to 4.05%, and female national names to only 1.27%. Personal nicknames are a special anthroponymic category which has not been researched in the Kalnik area. Having limited our field research on 13 places throughout the area, we confirmed 288 real personal nicknames, 245 male and 43 female nicknames, of mostly simple structure (95.14%), which are still mostly used in oral and informal communication. The motivation behind the nicknames has faithfully shown us the extralinguistic reality of the researched area. The most frequent motivational group of nicknames is the one of unknown motivation (23.96%), while the other confirmed groups are nicknames motivated by a first name (12,15%), a physical characteristic of the owner (12.15%), another characteristic of the owner (11,81%), a specific word used by the owner (8.33%), an animal (6.94%), a family name (6.60%), an occupation (6.25%), an ethnonym or toponym (4.51%), a family or social role (2.78%), a professional designation (1.38%), food (1.04%), a name for a plant (1.04%), a subject (0.69%), and another nickname (0.35%). The high frequency of nicknames of unknown motivation shows us the importance of future research of this anthroponymic category because, due to the passage of time, it is difficult to determine the real motivation of every nickname. We came to the same conclusion during our research of family nicknames, another specific anthroponymic category, still quite present in the Kalnik area. Having limited our field research on 12 places throughout the wide researched area, we managed to confirm 173 real family nicknames, whose designated motivational groups provided us with important sociolinguistic pieces of information. Concerning their structure, the majority of family nicknames turned out to be simple (N = 129), whereas concerning their motivation, the majority of family nicknames were of unknown motivation (N = 33). Other motivational groups were the following: a first name (N = 27), an occupation (N = 27), a family name (N = 25), a personal nickname (N = 22), a certain characteristic (N = 13), an ethnonym (N = 10), a toponym (N = 6), a certain subject (N = 6), and an animal (N = 4). All these mentioned different anthroponymic categories (first names, personal and family nicknames) can be confirmed profusely in the last anthroponymic category researched and analysed in this thesis – family names. Having employed the criterion of their minimum continuity of 100 years in the researched area, we have managed to confirm 1360 family names with centuries old continuity, since the 14th century to this very day. With this criterion we also managed to reduce a significant number of over 3000 family names with mostly no continuity, as well as to confirm those last names which had left their trace in the researched area. Of course, not all family names confirmed by this criterion are necessarily connected to the researched area, but are only detected in it. Out of 1360 confirmed family names, we succeeded in determining 189 family names which occur exclusively or mostly in the researched area, 100 family names which do not occur in contemporary anthroponymy of the area, and 97 family names which could also become extinguished in near future. Concerning their structure, the majority of all family names occur without a suffix (N = 681). All the confirmed family names were analysed according to their structure and motivation and listed in our Lexicon of family names at the end of this very thesis.


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