Underestimating risk leading to the collapse of a market leader in tourism

The topic of this paper, underestimating risk leading to the collapse of the market leader in tourism, is demonstrated on the example of the British travel agency Thomas Cook, which at one time was one of the oldest and largest travel agencies in the world. The aim of this paper is to analyze the development of the stock prices of Thomas Cook from May 13, 2018 to May 19, 2019 and the factors that had an impact on the share price of this company in the monitored period. The base source of data are the share prices of the travel agency Thomas Cook in the specified period from May 13, 2018 to May 19, 2019 published by MarketWatch. A statistical description of time series is used, a moving average trend line is displayed, and a cause-and-effect analysis evaluating the impact of the published information on the value of Thomas Cook’s stocks is carried out. The general lesson for companies resulting from this contribution is that every negative event, announcement or piece of information has a negative impact on the value of a company’s shares and a collapse could happen even to the leader of a given industry. The collapse of Thomas Cook provides lessons for companies doing business in tourism, so that in the event of a planned merger, a suitable company is selected, the company’s funds are under control and development trends in the field are monitored.

Innovation Leading Organizations

Innovation is one of the most likely factors to boost effectiveness, efficiency, and sustainability of an organization, regardless of its sector of activity, as for instance, the armed forces. The absence of innovation can affect the organizations in different ways, from suboptimal operational effectiveness and improvement of organization processes (administrative, operational, or logistics), bringing with it negative impacts on human resources motivation – the main keepers of knowledge, institutional culture, and organizational values. Innovative organizations also generate a stronger sense of belonging across their ranks and structures and fosters effectiveness in fulfilling organizations' missions. Hence, fostering innovation across any typology of organization is crucial and requires a proper approach to promote the desirable involvement of the entire workforce. This text, based on a review of some relevant literature, exposes critical enabling factors. Based on a cause-and-effect analysis, it proposes some recommendations for the practitioner as well as the academic.

The Importance of the Integrative Relationship Between Cause and Effect Analysis and The Sustainable Balanced Scorecard in Solving Problems of Economic Units

The aim of the research is to highlight the complementarity between cause-and-effect analysis and the Sustainable Balanced Tag Card. The problem with the research is that economic units are poorly aware of the theoretical and philosophical foundations of cause-and-effect analysis and their importance in costing and solving administrative problems and inadequate attention to financial and non-financial measures. In order to achieve the objective of research and test its hypotheses, the Wasit Textile and Weaving Plant of the State Company for the Textile and Leather Industries, located in the centre of the Wasit prefecture, has been selected as a centre for research. Its performance has been evaluated and a model has been presented to solve the problems it faces through a cause-and-effect analysis scheme with a sustainable balanced tag card (SBSC) that details all environmental and social aspects, both quantitative and financial. A set of conclusions has been reached, the most important of which is that the cause-and-effect relationship is not just a correlation, but a reasonable relationship between the level of the activity and its costs, because it gives analysts and managers confidence in the relationships repeatedly estimated in other sets of data, The identification of cost guides gives managers a vision of several methods they use to reduce costs and the quantity of routers, and the sustainable balanced labeling card uses both financial and non-financial performance measures to bridge the gap arising from the use of financial measures only, as well as to measure and improve performance , The economic unit wishing to take advantage of the characteristics of the adopted economic unit strategies that are relevant to each dimension of the sustainable balance tag and its drawbacks should be careful not to reduce the costs of products or services on an ongoing basis, and focus not only on reducing costs, but also on providing distinct products and services that meet

INDICATOR ANALYSIS OF SMART CITY STANDARD SNI ISO 37122 PLAYS A ROLE IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

A smart city is a city development concept based on the principles of information technology so that the management of all resources runs effectively and efficiently. One of the concepts of implementing smart cities that have been developed is through the application of the SNI ISO 37122: 2019 standard. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the smart city concept is expected to play a role in increasing the effectiveness of implementing health protocols in urban environments. The purpose of this preliminary research is to analyze smart city indicators in the SNI ISO 37122 standard which are directly related to preventing the spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic. This research uses descriptive qualitative methods and literature study. To link the smart city indicator and the Covid-19 pandemic health protocol, the Cause-and-Effect Analysis (CEA) method and brainstorming using expert judgment were used. Based on the results of the analysis of 19 sectors contained in the standard, there are 11 sectors and 21 indicators that have roles in limiting the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia.

A Taxonomic Analysis of the Structure of Prime Costs in Polish Clinical Hospitals

Research background: The analysis of the genesis and the way of defining clinical hospitals allows us to conclude that the evaluation of their activities should consider many criteria, not only the treatment process in itself. Activities characteristic for a clinical hospital include, apart from the medical, also prophylaxis and preventative measures, preceded by the identification of health risks, soliciting research and creating new directions of medical research, as well as implementing new medical technologies and treatment methods (Article 3, paragraph 2, points 1–2, Journal of Laws of 2020, items 295, 567, 1493, 2112, i.e.) combined with the training of medical personnel. Which all makes those units unique among hospitals. Purpose: The article aims to confirm the thesis that, despite significant organizational and functional differences, due to the specific nature of their activities, clinical hospitals do not differ significantly in the structure of generated costs. Research methodology: The article proposes using the taxonomic method as a tool for a comparative analysis of Polish clinical hospitals between the years 2012–2016. The study was conducted from a space-time perspective and concerned 20 hospitals. The use of the hierarchical agglomeration method to assess the cost structure of clinical hospitals is, according to the author, a tool that should be used, in addition to standard methods, by both external and internal decision-makers, in the process of assessing the coherence of the activities of units. Results: The conducted research confirmed that despite the differences between the analyzed units, they are characterized by the same structure of prime costs. Novelty: These studies should form the basis for further, a more detailed, cause-and-effect analysis of the cost structure to identify the main determinants shaping total operating costs.

Anton Korošec in padec vlade Milana Stojadinovića. O zarotah in zarotnikih

The author discusses the role of Anton Korošec in the downfall of the Milan Stojadinović government in February 1939, one of the more exciting moments of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. He confronts some theoretical issues when explaining the background of the political conspiracy, which he conceives as the contrast between public and politically legitimized action. First, the meaning of structure and event. Can the government's downfall be understood as an event that happened instantaneously and was not inevitable, or can it be seen as necessary, even long-planned? Furthermore, the author wonders whether it is possible to describe the events only utilizing rational analysis and causal sequence or something missing in the process. The discussion structure is based on a chronologically challenging concept: the definition is followed by a temporal, political, and spatial contextualization, then by a cause-and-effect analysis, and finally by a conclusion.

Method of Assessing the Integral Risk on the Example of the system «GL2Z Enterprise — Hazardous and Harmful Factors — Employees»

The Algerian company Sonatrach is associated with the production of the liquefied natural gas, propane, butane, gasoline from the crude gas. The article solves the problem of assessing the integral risk at the GL2Z natural gas liquefaction plant with an analysis of the possible joint effect on the employees of production products complex as harmful and (or) hazardous factors in the form of chemical and thermal factors, provided that a fire or flash occurs considering the error of measuring gas components concentration. Integral risk is understood as probable (expected) damage from the occurrence of an incident or from the realization of an unfavorable outcome, provided that the full group of possible incidents (outcomes) in the system under consideration is considered. Modeling and cause-and-effect analysis of the occurrence of an incident and (or) adverse outcomes in the system is described using factor parametric models of the type «load-bearing capacity», «effect — susceptibility». In this case, most often the realization of an unfavorable outcome is evaluated by the condition of exceeding the parameter or the magnitude of the effect over the susceptibility parameter. Using the example of the system under consideration, a Boolean function of the integral risk indicator is constructed, and a demonstration of the calculation of its probabilistic form is performed. In addition, it is proposed to calculate a probabilistic measure from a unified position of logical and parametric description of both the set of possible incidents and their components in the form of unfavorable outcomes. To test the proposed method for assessing the integral risk, the initial data were used, with which, provided that the probability of an outbreak of all five components of the crude gas is equal, it was obtained that in a particular analyzed system, the calculated value of the upper limit of the probability of an incident occurrence was 0.9675.

The Theory of “Smart Regulation”: The Ideological and Historical Context of Formation

Introduction: the scientific interest in studying the specifics of the formation of the “smart regulation” theory is due to both its controversial nature, novelty, practical orientation, and a certain fragmentary coverage of relevant issues in Russian jurisprudence. Methods: the methodological framework for the study is a set of methods of scientific cognition, among which the main ones are the general scientific dialectical, comparative law, logicalsyntactic methods, the semantic methods of cognition, as well as the methods of cause-and-effect analysis, forecasting, synthesis, and analysis. Results: the study reveals the theoretical background and socio-historical context of the emergence of the ideas of “smart regulation”, shows the features of their conceptualization and differences from previous scientific views on the phenomenon of legal regulation. The paper substantiates the conclusions about the need for an expanded interpretation of the ideological and theoretical foundations of “smart regulation”, whose specifics are due to the long tradition of the development of previous political and legal thought.

Risk Management Model using Cause and Effect Analysis in Industrial Building Project

The purpose of this study is to determine the main potential risks that occur in the design planning stage of a construction project, especially in an Industrial Building project. Based on the available literature and the experiences of other authors and practitioners, a list of potential risks was developed. Risks events were initially categorized into technical, project management, commercial and external categories. Risks are evaluated by professional practitioners who have experience in construction projects. The evaluation includes the expected likelihood of the event and its impact on changes in scope of work. This study considers each risk among owners, consultants, contractors and others. The data collected were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to assess the severity and impact of the event. The recommended responses to major risks are introduced in this study. Keywords: risk management model, planning stage, industrial building.