Stability of large complex systems with heterogeneous relaxation dynamics

We study the probability of stability of a large complex system of size N within the framework of a generalized May model, which assumes a linear dynamics of each population size n i (with respect to its equilibrium value): d n i d t = − a i n i − T ∑ j J i j n j . The a i > 0’s are the intrinsic decay rates, J ij is a real symmetric (N × N) Gaussian random matrix and T measures the strength of pairwise interaction between different species. Our goal is to study how inhomogeneities in the intrinsic damping rates a i affect the stability of this dynamical system. As the interaction strength T increases, the system undergoes a phase transition from a stable phase to an unstable phase at a critical value T = T c. We reinterpret the probability of stability in terms of the hitting time of the level b = 0 of an associated Dyson Brownian motion (DBM), starting at the initial position a i and evolving in ‘time’ T. In the large N → ∞ limit, using this DBM picture, we are able to completely characterize T c for arbitrary density μ(a) of the a i ’s. For a specific flat configuration a i = 1 + σ i − 1 N , we obtain an explicit parametric solution for the limiting (as N → ∞) spectral density for arbitrary T and σ. For finite but large N, we also compute the large deviation properties of the probability of stability on the stable side T < T c using a Coulomb gas representation.

A Dynamic Holding Approach to Stabilizing a Bus Line Based on the Q-Learning Algorithm with Multistage Look-Ahead

The unreliable service and the unstable operation of a high-frequency bus line are shown as bus bunching and the uneven distribution of headways along the bus line. Although many control strategies, such as the static and dynamic holding strategies, have been proposed to solve the above problems, many of them take on some oversimplified assumptions about the real bus line operation. So it is hard for them to continuously adapt to the evolving complex system. In view of this dynamic setting, we present an adaptive holding method that combines the classic approximate dynamic programming (ADP) with the multistage look-ahead mechanism. The holding time, the only control means used in this study, will be determined by estimating its impact on the operation stability of the bus line system in the remaining observation period. The multistage look-ahead mechanism introduced into the classic Q-learning algorithm of the ADP model makes it easy that the algorithm gets through its earlier unstable phase more quickly and easily. During the implementation of the new holding approach, the past experiences of holding operations can be cumulated effectively into an artificial neural network used to approximate the unavailable Q-factor. The use of a detailed simulation system in the new approach makes it possible to take into account most of the possible causes of instability. The numerical experiments show that the new holding approach can stabilize the system by producing evenly distributed headway and removing bus bunching thoroughly. Compared with the terminal station holding strategies, the new method brings a more reliable bus line with shorter waiting times for passengers.

Ancient acid rains in Ediacaran – an alternative story for sulfate sedimentation

Vast deposits of anhydrite and magnesite widely distributed in Ediacaran strata of East Siberia near the Riphean unconformity. Anhydrite-rich rocks are not look like of evaporitic origin find mostly nodules and the layers of chicken-wire structure otherwise disseminated as tiny sulfate forms amongst the terrigenous rocks. Here we propose an alternative point of view for anhydrite appearance – the enrichment of Sulphur because of the slashing increase the content of sulfur in the Ediacaran atmosphere due to high volcanic activity. It is suggested that the ancient Earth's atmosphere could have also been influenced by powerful sulfuric acid rains that eroded the Precambrian dolomites causing their aggressive degradation. Chemical reactions with dolomite and sulfuric acid showed that in the early stages an unstable phase of bassanite occur which later stabilized as anhydrite after its heating as an analogue of aging. Aggressive acids have caused global process of dolomite karstification of the Siberian craton with appearance in Ediacaran strata in addition to the sulfate phases, including magnesite and sulphurous phases of pyrite and barite.

Phase Diagrams of Ternary π-Conjugated Polymer Solutions for Organic Photovoltaics

Phase diagrams of ternary conjugated polymer solutions were constructed based on Flory-Huggins lattice theory with a constant interaction parameter. For this purpose, the poly(3-hexylthiophene-2,5-diyl) (P3HT) solution as a model system was investigated as a function of temperature, molecular weight (or chain length), solvent species, processing additives, and electron-accepting small molecules. Then, other high-performance conjugated polymers such as PTB7 and PffBT4T-2OD were also studied in the same vein of demixing processes. Herein, the liquid-liquid phase transition is processed through the nucleation and growth of the metastable phase or the spontaneous spinodal decomposition of the unstable phase. Resultantly, the versatile binodal, spinodal, tie line, and critical point were calculated depending on the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter as well as the relative molar volume of each component. These findings may pave the way to rationally understand the phase behavior of solvent-polymer-fullerene (or nonfullerene) systems at the interface of organic photovoltaics and molecular thermodynamics.

M/M/Infinity Birth-Death Processes – A Quantitative Representational Framework to Summarize and Explain Phase Singularity and Wavelet Dynamics in Atrial Fibrillation

RationaleA quantitative framework to summarize and explain the quasi-stationary population dynamics of unstable phase singularities (PS) and wavelets in human atrial fibrillation (AF) is at present lacking. Building on recent evidence showing that the formation and destruction of PS and wavelets in AF can be represented as renewal processes, we sought to establish such a quantitative framework, which could also potentially provide insight into the mechanisms of spontaneous AF termination.ObjectivesHere, we hypothesized that the observed number of PS or wavelets in AF could be governed by a common set of renewal rate constants λf (for PS or wavelet formation) and λd (PS or wavelet destruction), with steady-state population dynamics modeled as an M/M/∞ birth–death process. We further hypothesized that changes to the M/M/∞ birth–death matrix would explain spontaneous AF termination.Methods and ResultsAF was studied in in a multimodality, multispecies study in humans, animal experimental models (rats and sheep) and Ramirez-Nattel-Courtemanche model computer simulations. We demonstrated: (i) that λf and λd can be combined in a Markov M/M/∞ process to accurately model the observed average number and population distribution of PS and wavelets in all systems at different scales of mapping; and (ii) that slowing of the rate constants λf and λd is associated with slower mixing rates of the M/M/∞ birth–death matrix, providing an explanation for spontaneous AF termination.ConclusionM/M/∞ birth–death processes provide an accurate quantitative representational architecture to characterize PS and wavelet population dynamics in AF, by providing governing equations to understand the regeneration of PS and wavelets during sustained AF, as well as providing insight into the mechanism of spontaneous AF termination.

Transport of angular momentum by stochastically excited waves as an explanation for the outburst of the rapidly rotating Be star HD49330

Context. HD 49330 is an early Be star that underwent an outburst during its five-month observation with the CoRoT satellite. An analysis of its light curve revealed several independent p and g pulsation modes, in addition to showing that the amplitude of the modes is directly correlated with the outburst. Aims. We modelled the results obtained with CoRoT to understand the link between pulsational parameters and the outburst of this Be star. Methods. We modelled the flattening of the structure of the star due to rapid rotation in two ways: Chandrasekhar-Milne’s expansion and 2D structure computed with ROTORC. We then modelled κ-driven pulsations. We also adapted the formalism of the excitation and amplitude of stochastically excited gravito-inertial modes to rapidly rotating stars, and we modelled those pulsations as well. Results. We find that while pulsation p modes are indeed excited by the κ mechanism, the observed g modes are, rather, a result of stochastic excitation. In contrast, g and r waves are stochastically excited in the convective core and transport angular momentum to the surface, increasing its rotation rate. This destabilises the external layers of the star, which then emits transient stochastically excited g waves. These transient waves produce most of the low-frequency signal detected in the CoRoT data and ignite the outburst. During this unstable phase, p modes disappear at the surface because their cavity is broken. Following the outburst and ejection of the surface layer, relaxation occurs, making the transient g waves disappear and p modes reappear. Conclusions. This work includes the first coherent model of stochastically excited gravito-inertial pulsation modes in a rapidly rotating Be star. It provides an explanation for the correlation between the variation in the amplitude of frequencies detected in the CoRoT data and the occurrence of an outburst. This scenario could apply to other pulsating Be stars, providing an explanation to the long-standing questions surrounding Be outbursts and disks.

Inter-Rater Reliability of the Phase of Illness Tool in Pediatric Palliative Care

Background: Phase of Illness is used to describe the stages of a patient’s illness in the palliative care setting. Categorization is based on individual needs, family circumstances, and the adequacy of a care plan. Substantial (κ = .67) and moderate (κ = .52) inter-rater reliability is demonstrated when categorizing adults; however, there is a lack of similar studies in pediatrics. Objective: To test the inter-rater reliability of health-care professionals when assigning pediatric palliative care patients to a Phase of Illness. Furthermore, to obtain user views on phase definitions, ease of assignment, feasibility and acceptability of use. Method: A prospective cohort study in which up to 9 health-care professionals’ independently allocated 80 pediatric patients to a Phase of Illness and reported on their experiences. This study took place between June and November 2017. Results: Professionals achieved a moderate level of agreement (κ = 0.50). Kappa values per phase were as follows: stable = 0.63 (substantial), unstable = 0.26 (fair), deteriorating = 0.45 (moderate), and dying = 0.43 (moderate). For the majority of allocations, professionals report that the phase definitions described patients very well (76.1%), and they found it easy to assign patients (73.5%). However, the unstable phase caused the most uncertainty. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest Phase of Illness is a moderately reliable, acceptable, and feasible tool for use in pediatric palliative care. Current results are similar to those found in some adult studies. However, in a quarter of cases, users report some uncertainty in the application of the tool, and further study is warranted to explore whether suggested refinements improve its psychometric properties.