Quantifying the effects of delisting wolves after the first state began lethal management

Predators and their protection are controversial worldwide. Gray wolves, Canis lupus, lost U.S. federal protection (delisting) and the State of Wisconsin began lethal management first among all states and tribes that regained authority over wolves. Here we evaluated the initial success of reaching the state’s explicit objective, “…to allow for a sustainable harvest that neither increases nor decreases the state’s wolf population…” We used official state figures for hunter-killed wolves, population estimates from April 2017–2020, and the latest peer-reviewed model of individual wolf survival to estimate additional deaths resulting from federal delisting. More than half of the additional deaths were predicted to be cryptic poaching under the assumption that this period resembled past periods of liberalized wolf-killing in Wisconsin. We used a precautionary approach to construct three conservative scenarios to predict the current status of this wolf population and a minimum estimate of population decline since April 2020. From our scenarios that vary in growth rates and additional mortality estimates, we expect a maximum of 695–751 wolves to be alive in Wisconsin by 15 April 2021, a minimum 27–33% decline in the preceding 12 months. This contradicts the state expectation of no change in the population size. We draw a conclusion about the adequacy of regulatory mechanisms under state control of wolves and discuss the particular governance conditions met in Wisconsin. We recommend greater rigor and independent review of the science used by agencies to plan wolf hunting quotas and methods. We recommend clearer division of duties between state wildlife agencies, legislatures, and courts. We recommend federal governments reconsider the practice of sudden deregulation of wolf management and instead recommend they consider protecting predators as non-game or transition more slowly to subnational authority, to avoid the need for emergency relisting.

Emissions from Animal Agriculture—16.5% Is the New Minimum Figure

Knowledge production within the climate sciences is quickly taken up by multiple stakeholders, reproduced in scientific citation and the broader culture, even when it is no longer accurate. This article accomplishes two goals: firstly, it contributes to the clarification of the quantification of emissions from animal agriculture, and secondly, it considers why the dominant framing of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) on this subject focuses on maximizing production efficiency. Specifically, analysing the FAO’s own work on this topic shows that the often-used FAO estimate that emissions from animal agriculture amount to 14.5% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is now out of date. In returning to the FAO’s own explanation of its data sources and its more recent analysis of emissions from animal agriculture, this article finds that the figure of minimum estimate should be updated to 16.5%. The tendency of the FAO to prioritize a technological approach focused on making animal production more “eco-efficient” is critically examined in light of many other evidence-based calls for reductions in animal consumption. An explanation for this FAO approach is offered in terms of a type of epistemological bias.

Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Gulf of Venezuela: An update stranding assessment 2001-2014

Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) is highly impacted by fisheries’ bycatch worldwide. This study updates and estimates the leatherback turtle stranding records from 2001 to 2014 in the Gulf of Venezuela. Eighty-six stranded leatherback turtles were documented in the coast of the Gulf of Venezuela. Immature leatherback turtles were the most affected (85.1%) and the highest number of strandings were recorded during the dry season (55.8%). Our findings represent the minimum estimate of stranding events for the Gulf of Venezuela, especially considering the current lack of fisheries regulations. This is the latest update for the leatherback turtle strandings in the Gulf of Venezuela and could help to create new management solutions in the area aiming to minimize the impact on leatherback turtle populations in the Caribbean.

Financial Free in the Retirement Period by Saving on Stocks

This study aims to calculate the minimum estimate of saving stocks per month to be financially free after 30 years of investing in stocks. The research method used is a quantitative method. The results showed that the estimated minimum funds to get passive income of 5 million, which is equivalent for the next 30 years, is IDR 930,936 per month.

Validation of a type 1 diabetes algorithm using electronic medical records and administrative healthcare data to study the population incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in Ontario, Canada

IntroductionWe aimed to develop algorithms distinguishing type 1 diabetes (T1D) from type 2 diabetes in adults ≥18 years old using primary care electronic medical record (EMRPC) and administrative healthcare data from Ontario, Canada, and to estimate T1D prevalence and incidence.Research design and methodsThe reference population was a random sample of patients with diabetes in EMRPC whose charts were manually abstracted (n=5402). Algorithms were developed using classification trees, random forests, and rule-based methods, using electronic medical record (EMR) data, administrative data, or both. Algorithm performance was assessed in EMRPC. Administrative data algorithms were additionally evaluated using a diabetes clinic registry with endocrinologist-assigned diabetes type (n=29 371). Three algorithms were applied to the Ontario population to evaluate the minimum, moderate and maximum estimates of T1D prevalence and incidence rates between 2010 and 2017, and trends were analyzed using negative binomial regressions.ResultsOf 5402 individuals with diabetes in EMRPC, 195 had T1D. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for the best performing algorithms were 80.6% (75.9–87.2), 99.8% (99.7–100), 94.9% (92.3–98.7), and 99.3% (99.1–99.5) for EMR, 51.3% (44.0–58.5), 99.5% (99.3–99.7), 79.4% (71.2–86.1), and 98.2% (97.8–98.5) for administrative data, and 87.2% (81.7–91.5), 99.9% (99.7–100), 96.6% (92.7–98.7) and 99.5% (99.3–99.7) for combined EMR and administrative data. Administrative data algorithms had similar sensitivity and specificity in the diabetes clinic registry. Of 11 499 711 adults in Ontario in 2017, there were 24 789 (0.22%, minimum estimate) to 102 140 (0.89%, maximum estimate) with T1D. Between 2010 and 2017, the age-standardized and sex-standardized prevalence rates per 1000 person-years increased (minimum estimate 1.7 to 2.56, maximum estimate 7.48 to 9.86, p<0.0001). In contrast, incidence rates decreased (minimum estimate 0.1 to 0.04, maximum estimate 0.47 to 0.09, p<0.0001).ConclusionsPrimary care EMR and administrative data algorithms performed well in identifying T1D and demonstrated increasing T1D prevalence in Ontario. These algorithms may permit the development of large, population-based cohort studies of T1D.

Plastic contamination of soil: is compost the source?

&lt;p&gt;Plastic contamination is a major environmental topic, however, only little knowledge exists about plastic contamination of agroecosystems. Especially the prevalence of plastic in soil and potential entry paths remain largely unknown. Consequently, this study aims at evaluating to what degree compost application is a source of plastic for soil. To do so, we analyzed plastic in 8 different municipal and commercial composts and in topsoil (0-30 cm) of a 12-year compost fertilizer trial with 0, 5, 10 and 20&amp;#160;t compost per hectare. After method testing and adjustment (yielding 76-100% recovery of spiked plastic particles), plastic was analyzed via density separation (ZnCl&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) and light microscopy. We found 12&amp;#177;8 to 46&amp;#177;8 plastic items kg&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; compost; concentrations of plastic items &gt; 5 mm were highly variable and ranged between 0.04&amp;#177;0.08 to 1.35&amp;#177;0.53 g kg&lt;sup&gt;-1 &lt;/sup&gt;compost. In contrast to sewage sludge, which contains mostly fibers, in compost particles were dominant. In soil we found 0 to 66&amp;#177;8.5 plastic items kg&lt;sup&gt;-1 &lt;/sup&gt;soil, with highest plastic concentrations in variants with highest compost application, i.e. soils with compost application had 2 to 2.5 higher plastic concentrations than control variants. However, we also could detect additional plastic sources as fields on the border of the trial (near a road) had 3 times higher plastic concentrations than inner fields, leading to a plastic contamination of up to 23 items kg&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. Consequently, we could confirm compost application as an entry path for plastic into soil, leading to a twofold increased plastic contamination of agricultural soil. The determined plastic input via compost might be a minimum estimate since small plastic items like nanoplastics were not included, which warrants further attention. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Aquifer-eustasy as the main driver of short-term sea-level fluctuations during Cretaceous hothouse climate phases

A review of short-term (<3 myr: c. 100 kyr to 2.4 myr) Cretaceous sea-level fluctuations of several tens of metres indicates recent fundamental progress in understanding the underlying mechanisms for eustasy, both in timing and in correlation. Cretaceous third- and fourth-order hothouse sea-level changes, the sequence-stratigraphic framework, are linked to Milankovitch-type climate cycles, especially the longer-period sequence-building bands of 405 kyr and 1.2 myr. In the absence of continental ice sheets during Cretaceous hothouse phases (e.g. Cenomanian–Turonian), growing evidence indicates groundwater-related sea-level cycles: (1) the existence of Milankovitch-type humid-arid climate oscillations, proven via intense humid weathering records during times of regression and sea-level lowstands; (2) missing or inverse relationships of sea-level and the marine δ18O archives, i.e. the lack of a pronounced positive excursion, cooling signal during sea-level lowstands; and (3) the anti-phase relationship of sea and lake levels, attesting to high groundwater levels and charged continental aquifers during sea-level lowstands. This substantiates the aquifer-eustasy hypothesis. Rates of aquifer-eustatic sea-level change remain hard to decipher; however, reconstructions range from a very conservative minimum estimate of 0.04 mm a−1 (longer time intervals) to 0.7 mm a−1 (shorter, probably asymmetric cycles). Remarkably, aquifer-eustasy is recognized as a significant component for the Anthropocene sea-level budget.

Statistical analysis of crystal populations and links to volcano deformation for more robust estimates of magma replenishment volumes

Forecasting the timing and size of volcanic eruptions requires a proper interpretation of multiparametric monitoring signals. Studies of the erupted rocks can provide critical information on the processes and volcano plumbing system that is needed to decode the monitoring signals. Here we present the results of a petrological study of plagioclase phenocrysts using a new statistical approach that allows us to estimate the amount of intruded magma before eruption. Our crystal population analysis of the 2006 and 2010 CE Merapi volcano (Indonesia) eruptions shows that ∼60 ± 20 vol% of the 2010 magma was left over from the 2006 magma, and thus ∼40 ± 20 vol% was newly intruded magma. Using the published values of the 2010 erupted magma volume, this corresponds to >8 to 20 (±7) × 106 m3 of new magma. This is a minimum estimate and is similar to the inferred pre-eruptive deformation volume (18 ×106 m3), although given the uncertainties, several million cubic meters of magma intruded in 2010 could still be in the Merapi plumbing system. Our approach could be used at other volcanoes to quantify the volume of intruded magma and thus help in better understanding the unrest signals that anticipate eruptions.

On the Measurement of Cooperativity and the Physico-Chemical Meaning of the Hill Coefficient

Cooperative ligand binding is a fundamental property of many biological macromolecules, notably transport proteins, hormone receptors, and enzymes. Positive homotropic cooperativity, the form of cooperativity that has greatest physiological relevance, causes the ligand affinity to increase as ligation proceeds, thus increasing the steepness of the ligand-binding isotherm. The measurement of the extent of cooperativity has proven difficult, and the most commonly employed marker of cooperativity, the Hill coefficient, originates from a structural hypothesis that has long been disproved. However, a wealth of relevant biochemical data has been interpreted using the Hill coefficient and is being used in studies on evolution and comparative physiology. Even a cursory analysis of the pertinent literature shows that several authors tried to derive more sound biochemical information from the Hill coefficient, often unaware of each other. As a result, a perplexing array of equations interpreting the Hill coefficient is available in the literature, each responding to specific simplifications or assumptions. In this work, we summarize and try to order these attempts, and demonstrate that the Hill coefficient (i) provides a minimum estimate of the free energy of interaction, the other parameter used to measure cooperativity, and (ii) bears a robust statistical correlation to the population of incompletely saturated ligation intermediates. Our aim is to critically evaluate the different analyses that have been advanced to provide a physical meaning to the Hill coefficient, and possibly to select the most reliable ones to be used in comparative studies that may make use of the extensive but elusive information available in the literature.

Estimation of Dry Season Irrigation Water Abstraction in Lunsemfwa, Mulungushi, Mwomboshi, and Mkushi Subbasins from 2013 to 2017 in Zambia

Water abstraction depends on many variables that include the purpose for the abstraction, the location, the policies in place, and the type of water resources available for abstraction. The overall objective of this study was to estimate irrigation water abstraction from Mkushi, Mulungushi, Mwomboshi, and Lunsemfwa subbasins in Zambia. Reference evapotranspiration was determined using FAO ETo calculator and the results ranged from 6.84 mm/day to 7.02 mm/day. For this study the soils were set as described in the soil map of Zambia and put into the soil characteristic calculator to estimate their physical properties. The results estimate that a total maximum abstraction of 119,680,200 m3 was in 2013, and a minimum estimate of 74,951,400 m3 was in 2014. Wheat abstraction volumes (which were used to represent crops with higher water demand) were compared between catchments and significant differences exist when comparing Lunsemfwa catchment to Mkushi, Mulungushi, and Mwomboshi; thus there were no chances of similarity at an alpha level of 0.05. This means that Lunsemfwa catchment abstracted most irrigation water from 2013 to 2017 than the other three catchments as a result of having the largest proportion of irrigated area in the subbasin.