The association between cognitive biases and the quality of strategic decision making: Evidence from Jordanian banks

Excellence in strategic decision making is the driving force behind successful strategy adoption and implementation. However, it is becoming more and more complex as businesses emerge in unpredictable environments and conditions. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of cognitive bias and its dimensions (the illusion of control, prior hypothesis bias, escalating commitment bias and representativeness, and availability bias) on strategic decision making. In terms of methodology, the study used a random sampling technique. The study applied a survey as a research tool distributed among 138 bankers (employees at the managerial level) in managerial and administrative positions. Further, descriptive analysis and regression analysis were used to analyze the data and test hypotheses. The results show a positive and significant effect of the illusion of control and representativeness. The results show that the illusion of control, prior hypothesis bias, escalating commitment bias and representativeness, and availability bias significantly impact the strategic decision-making in Jordanian banks. It is concluded that the null hypothesis will be accepted and, therefore, the alternative hypothesis will be rejected based on the significant levels for the primary and secondary hypotheses. The factors of the escalating commitment bias, the availability bias, and the reasoning by analogy were not significant. Finally, the study recommends developing more literature on integrating psychology and discrimination and applying the research to different industries and managerial levels.

The Brain Connectome after Gamma Knife Radiosurgery of the Ventro-Intermediate Nucleus for Tremor: Marseille-Lausanne Radiobiology Study Protocol

Essential tremor (ET) is the most common movement disorder. Deep brain stimulation is the current gold standard for drug-resistant tremor, followed by radiofrequency lesioning. Stereotactic radiosurgery by Gamma Knife (GK) is considered as a minimally invasive alternative. The majority of procedures aim at the same target, thalamic ventro-intermediate nucleus (Vim). The primary aim is to assess the clinical response in relationship to neuroimaging changes, both at structural and functional level. All GK treatments are uniformly performed in our center using Guiot’s targeting and a radiation dose of 130 Gy. MR neuroimaging protocol includes structural imaging (T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted imaging [DWI]), resting-state functional MRI, and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography. Neuroimaging changes are studied both at the level of the cerebello-thalamo-cortical tract (using the prior hypothesis based upon Vim’s circuitry: motor cortex, ipsilateral Vim, and contralateral cerebellar dentate nucleus) and also at global brain level (no prior hypothesis). This protocol aims at using modern neuroimaging techniques for studying Vim GK radiobiology for tremor, in relationship to clinical effects, particularly in ET patients. In perspective, using such an approach, patient selection could be based upon a specific brain connectome profile.

Sulfur isotope evidence of geochemical zonation of the Samoan mantle plume

<p>The radiogenic Pb isotope compositions of basalts from the Samoan hotspot suggest various mantle endmembers contribute compositionally distinct material to lavas erupted at different islands [1]. Basalts from the Samoan islands sample contributions from all of the classical mantle endmembers, including extreme EM II and high <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He components, as well as dilute contributions from the HIMU, EM I, and DM components. Here, we present multiple sulfur isotope data on sulfide extracted from subaerial and submarine whole rocks associated with several Samoan volcanoes—Malumalu, Malutut, Upolu, Savaii, and Tutuila—that sample the full range of geochemical heterogeneity at Samoa and allow for an assessment of the S-isotope compositions associated with the different mantle components sampled by the Samoan hotspot. We observe variable S concentrations (10-1000 ppm) and δ<sup>34</sup>S values (-0.29‰ to +4.84‰ ± 0.3, 2σ). The variable S concentrations likely reflect weathering, sulfide segregation and degassing processes. The range in δ<sup>34</sup>S reflects mixing between the primitive mantle and recycled components, and isotope fractionations associated with degassing. The majority of samples reveal Δ<sup>33</sup>S within uncertainty of Δ<sup>33</sup>S=0 ‰ ± 0.008, suggesting Δ<sup>33</sup>S is relatively well mixed within the Samoan mantle plume. Important exceptions to this observation include: (1) a negative Δ<sup>33</sup>S (-0.018‰ ±0.008, 2σ) from a rejuvenated basalt on Upolu island (associated with a diluted EM I component) and (2) a previously documented small (but resolvable) Δ<sup>33</sup>S values (up to +0.027±0.016) associated with the Vai Trend (associated with a diluted HIMU component) [2]. The variability we observed in Δ<sup>33</sup>S is interpreted to reflect contributions of sulfur of different origins and likely multiple crustal protoliths. Δ<sup>36</sup>S vs. Δ<sup>33</sup>S relationships suggest all recycled S is of post-Archean origin. The heterogeneous S isotope values and distinct isotopic compositions associated with the various compositional trends confirms a prior hypothesis; unique crustal materials are heterogeneously delivered to the Samoan mantle plume and compositionally influence the individual groups of islands.</p><p>[1] Jackson et al. (2014), <em>Nature; </em>[2] Dottin et al. (2020), <em>EPSL</em></p>

A Multi-Site Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego Depletion Effect

We conducted a preregistered, multi-laboratory project (k = 36; N = 3531) to assess the size and robustness of ego depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Laboratories implemented one of two procedures that intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a non-significant result, d = 0.06. Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30; SD = 0.15) found the data were four times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring preregistered exclusion criteria; see supplemental online materials) found a statistically significant effect (d = 0.08), with data about equally likely under the null and informed prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants reporting more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation.

Identification of Umbre Orthobunyavirus as a Novel Zoonotic Virus Responsible for Lethal Encephalitis in 2 French Patients with Hypogammaglobulinemia

Background Human encephalitis represents a medical challenge from a diagnostic and therapeutic point of view. We investigated the cause of 2 fatal cases of encephalitis of unknown origin in immunocompromised patients. Methods Untargeted metatranscriptomics was applied on the brain tissue of 2 patients to search for pathogens (viruses, bacteria, fungi, or protozoans) without a prior hypothesis. Results Umbre arbovirus, an orthobunyavirus never previously identified in humans, was found in 2 patients. In situ hybridization and reverse transcriptase–quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) showed that Umbre virus infected neurons and replicated at high titers. The virus was not detected in cerebrospinal fluid by RT-qPCR. Viral sequences related to Koongol virus, another orthobunyavirus close to Umbre virus, were found in Culex pipiens mosquitoes captured in the south of France where the patients had spent some time before the onset of symptoms, demonstrating the presence of the same clade of arboviruses in Europe and their potential public health impact. A serological survey conducted in the same area did not identify individuals positive for Umbre virus. The absence of seropositivity in the population may not reflect the actual risk of disease transmission in immunocompromised individuals. Conclusions Umbre arbovirus can cause encephalitis in immunocompromised humans and is present in Europe.

A mikrobiom szerepe a fül-orr-gégészetben

Our health is highly determined by the diverse microbial community living within our body and upon our skin. Balance among the members of the commensal microbiota is essential for the preservation of health. New generation sequencing is a rapid, sensitive method for determining the whole microbiome without prior hypothesis and also gives information on the resistance and virulence status. Application of this method can help to identify the pathogens contributing to different diseases, and also the protective bacteria inhibiting their growth. Detecting the changes of the microbiome helps to identify new therapeutic targets and establish targeted antibiotic therapy. Broad-spectrum antibiotics also act against the beneficial members of the microbial flora, which may lead to the development of recurrent or chronic disease. Ear, nose and throat infections are the most common infective diseases in humans and the leading cause for antibiotic prescription worldwide. In recent years, many studies using molecular biology methods were performed examining the microbiome of healthy humans and in otorhinolaryngologic diseases. In the present work, the authors review the changes of the microbiological communities in the healthy state and in various pathologic states in the anatomic regions of the ear, nose and throat. Orv Hetil. 2019; 160(39): 1533–1541.

Emotional breakthrough and psychedelics: Validation of the Emotional Breakthrough Inventory

Background: Psychedelic therapy is gaining recognition and the nature of the psychedelic experience itself has been found to mediate subsequent long-term psychological changes. Much emphasis has been placed on the occurrence of mystical-type experiences in determining long-term responses to psychedelics yet here we demonstrate the importance of another component, namely: emotional breakthrough. Methods: Three hundred and seventy-nine participants completed online surveys before and after a planned psychedelic experience. Items pertaining to emotional breakthrough were completed one day after the psychedelic experience, as were items comprising the already validated Mystical Experience Questionnaire and the Challenging Experience Questionnaire. Emotional breakthrough, Mystical Experience Questionnaire and Challenging Experience Questionnaire scores were used to predict changes in well-being (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale) in a subsample of 75 participants with low well-being baseline scores (⩽45). Results: Factor analyses revealed six emotional breakthrough items with high internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha=0.932) and supported our prior hypothesis that emotional breakthrough is a distinct component of the psychedelic experience. Emotional breakthrough scores behaved dose-dependently, and were higher if the psychedelic was taken with therapeutic planning and intent. Emotional breakthrough, Mystical Experience Questionnaire and Challenging Experience Questionnaire scores combined, significantly predicted subsequent changes in well-being ( r=0.45, p=0.0005, n=75), with each scale contributing significant predictive value. Emotional breakthrough and Mystical Experience Questionnaire scores predicted increases in well-being and Challenging Experience Questionnaire scores predicted less increases. Conclusions: Here we validate a six-item ‘Emotional Breakthrough Inventory’. Emotional breakthrough is an important and distinct component of the acute psychedelic experience that appears to be a key mediator of subsequent longer-term psychological changes. Implications for psychedelic therapy are discussed.

Data-driven mathematical model of East-Asian facial attractiveness: the relative contributions of shape and reflectance to attractiveness judgements

Facial attractiveness is judged through a combination of multiple cues including morphology (facial shape) and skin properties (facial reflectance). While several studies have examined the way in which people in Western cultures judge facial attractiveness, there have been fewer investigations into non-Western attitudes. This is because stimuli that quantitatively vary the attractiveness of non-Western faces are rare. In the present study, we built a model of the attractiveness of East-Asian faces, judged by East-Asian observers. Therefore, 400 computer-generated East-Asian faces were created and attractiveness rating scores were collected from Japanese observers. Data-driven mathematical calculations were used to identify quantitative links between facial attractiveness and shape and reflectance properties, with no prior hypothesis. Results indicate that faces with larger eyes, smaller noses and brighter skin are judged as more attractive, regardless of the sex of the faces, possibly reflecting a general preference for femininity. Shape is shown to be a strong determinant of attractiveness for both male and female faces, while reflectance properties are less important in judging male facial attractiveness. Our model provides a tool to effectively produce East-Asian face stimuli that quantitatively varies attractiveness and can be used to elucidate visual processes related to attractiveness judgements.

Combining Proto-Scandinavian loanword strata in South Saami with the Early Iron Age archaeological material of Jämtland and Dalarna, Sweden

In this article, I will examine South Saami prehistory from the perspectives of archaeology and historical lexicology. I will present a theoretical model that can be applied to a multidisciplinary research that uses methodologies from both the sciences and test it using South Saami material. My linguistic data consists of North-West Germanic and Early Proto-Scandinavian loanwords in South Saami. These loanword strata can be dated to 1–550 CE. I will make an inventory of the semantic categories of the words in the loanword strata to see from which domains words were borrowed. I will also examine the prominent individual words that might have significance as intercultural markers. The archaeological material used in the research includes hunting ground graves, iron manufacturing sites and dwelling sites in Dalarna and Jämtland, Sweden. I will consider remain types, artefact finds and remain structures dated to 1–550 CE. Only those sites that have been excavated will be included in the data. I will correlate the lexical finds with the archaeological find groups in order to examine what the datasets together reveal about contacts between the South Saami and Scandinavian speakers. The combination of archaeological and lexical research gives new advantages and perspectives to the study of prehistory. The study brings new evidence for the prior hypothesis about South Saami speakers as domestic animal herders. The combination of the sciences also reveals that the earliest hunting ground graves should be considered to have belonged to a non-Saami speaking Paleo-European people.

A Multi-State Birth-Death model for Bayesian inference of lineage-specific birth and death rates

Heterogeneous populations can lead to important differences in birth and death rates across a phylogeny Taking this heterogeneity into account is thus critical to obtain accurate estimates of the underlying population dynamics. We present a new multi-state birth-death model (MSBD) that can estimate lineage-specific birth and death rates. For species phylogenies, this corresponds to estimating lineage-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Contrary to existing models, we do not require a prior hypothesis on a trait driving the rate differences and we allow the same rates to be present in different parts of the phylogeny. Using simulated datasets, we show that the MSBD model can reliably infer the presence of multiple evolutionary regimes, their positions in the tree, and the birth and death rates associated with each. We also present a re-analysis of two empirical datasets and compare the results obtained by MSBD and by the existing software BAMM. The MSBD model is implemented as a package in the Bayesian inference software BEAST2, which allows joint inference of the phylogeny and the model parameters.Significance statementPhylogenetic trees can inform about the underlying speciation and extinction processes within a species clade. Many different factors, for instance environmental changes or morphological changes, can lead to differences in macroevolutionary dynamics within a clade. We present here a new multi-state birth-death (MSBD) model that can detect these differences and estimate both the position of changes in the tree and the associated macroevolutionary parameters. The MSBD model does not require a prior hypothesis on which trait is driving the changes in dynamics and is thus applicable to a wide range of datasets. It is implemented as an extension to the existing framework BEAST2.