Real-Time Reservoir Operation by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty

<p>Streamflow forecasts include uncertainties related with initial conditions, model forcings, hydrological model structure and parameters. Ensemble streamflow forecasts can capture forecast uncertainties by having spread forecast members. Integration of these forecast members into real-time operational decision models which deals with different objectives such as flood control, water supply or energy production are still rare. This study aims to use ensemble streamflows as input of the recurrent reservoir operation problem which can incorporate (i) forecast uncertainty, (ii) forecasts with a higher lead-time and (iii) a higher stability. A related technique for decision making is multi-stage stochastic optimization using scenario trees, referred to as Tree-based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). This approach reduces the number of ensemble members by its tree generation algorithms using all trajectories and then proper problem formulation is set by Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming. The method is relatively new in reservoir operation, especially closed-loop hindcasting experiments and its assessment is quite rare in the literature. The aim of this study is to set a TB-MPC based real-time reservoir operation with hindcasting experiments. To that end, first hourly deterministic streamflows having one single member are produced using an observed flood hydrograph. Deterministic forecasts are tested with conventional deterministic optimization setup. Secondly, hourly ensemble streamflow forecasts having a lead-time up to 48 hours are produced by a novel approach which explicitly presents dynamic uncertainty evolution. Produced ensemble members are directly provided to input to related technique. Uncertainty becomes much larger when managing small basins and small rivers. Thus, the methodology is applied to the Yuvacik dam reservoir, fed by a catchment area of 258 km<sup>2</sup> and located in Turkey, owing to its challenging flood control and water supply operation due to downstream flow constraints. According to the results, stochastic optimization outperforms conventional counterpart by considering uncertainty in terms of flood metrics without discarding water supply purposes. The closed-loop hindcasting experiment scenarios demonstrate the robustness of the system developed against biased information. In conclusion, ensemble streamflows produced from single member can be employed to TB-MPC for better real-time management of a reservoir control system.</p>

Ethics and risks between human and robotic interaction

Robot is definitely playing important role in human society. Low contact on machine standards is mostly on industrial robot while close contacts are in increasing demand in service robot, etc. The development of robotics with advanced hardware and artificial intelligence (AI) provide the possibility with human beings while close contacts raise many new issues on ethics and risks. For interaction, the related technique of perception, cognition and interaction are briefly introduced. For ethics, rules should be given for the robot designers to include ethics for certain application while risks should be evaluated during the experiment test. To make efficient decision, safety design with AI technology should be put on agenda for roboticists. Except from the risks, ethics raise many challenges while most of them can be solved by developing technologies while some of the problems exist in human’s society which also raise the questions for the human beings. More broader vision should be taken from different social departments together to avoid the possible embarrassed issues. It’s time to welcome the world of robotics and related techniques will make life more efficient while human-robot coexistence society will come one day and law should be imposed on both.

Team learning from human demonstration with coordination confidence

Among an array of techniques proposed to speed-up reinforcement learning (RL), learning from human demonstration has a proven record of success. A related technique, called Human-Agent Transfer, and its confidence-based derivatives have been successfully applied to single-agent RL. This article investigates their application to collaborative multi-agent RL problems. We show that a first-cut extension may leave room for improvement in some domains, and propose a new algorithm called coordination confidence (CC). CC analyzes the difference in perspectives between a human demonstrator (global view) and the learning agents (local view) and informs the agents’ action choices when the difference is critical and simply following the human demonstration can lead to miscoordination. We conduct experiments in three domains to investigate the performance of CC in comparison with relevant baselines.

Development as economic growth, 1956–

Economists often conflate the theory of economic development with the theory of economic growth. This practice has become increasingly popular since Robert Solow made elegant improvements to the Harrod–Domar growth model, but left it unclear whether it was meant to be applicable in developing countries. Solow’s model has one sector only and aggregates growth as increased GNP. It has no place for changes in the balance between economic sectors that characterize development. A related technique is growth accounting, which disaggregates growth into amounts generated by capital and labour inputs, and a residual attributed to technical change and all other influences on growth. The finding that the residual outweighs the effect of factor inputs is subject to measurement problems, and ignores the question of large productivity differentials between sectors.

Physical Vapor Growth of Double Position Boundary Free, Quasi-Bulk 3C-SiC on High Quality 3C-SiC on Si CVD Templates

We have developed and investigated the quasi-bulk crystal growth of 3C-SiC on transferred, high quality, CVD-grown templates using a sublimation sandwich related technique. The seeding layers were removed from the silicon carrier using a solution of hydrogen fluoride, nitric acid and water and glued to a substrate using carbon glue. The transferred layers were used as seeding material to grow high quality, single crystalline, DPBs free 3C-SiC crystals with thicknesses of up to 860 μm and a size of 18 x 20 mm. Analysis of the 3C-SiC layers was carried out using Laue measurement in back-reflecting geometry, Raman spectroscopy and optical microscopy.

An Autonomous Learning Multimedia Courseware Design

Aimed at project Instructional Courseware Design Using Geometrical Painting Method which is an sample of multimedia courseware, an suggestion was made that design should be directed by appropriate teaching and learning theory, bring forth all materials to learner through appropriate technology, making the learner to be able to join into the whole process of learning, to practice all the related technique in time, so that the learner could to be learned soon. Through this process, the learner not only could learn the knowledge it self, but also the method to solve problems in the real world.

Study on Related Technique Standard of Road Traffic Signals

The released and implemented traffic signals are analyzed, and the important content on the application of traffic signals is studied, which can provide help on the scientific establishment of road traffic signals. The related content about the classification, sequence, setting conditions and setting quantity of the road traffic signals is explained in detailed. Two design schemes of right-turning vehicle control mode are proposed. The conversion sequence of traffic signals and setting of crosswalk signals are respectively studied. The Opinions for the next revision is proposed according to the problems in present technique standard.

Study on Security Analysis and Management of Motor Based on Fuzzy Theory

Technique problems on motor security analysis and management are solved based on fuzzy theory. Combining such theory with present research of car engine structure and its related technique, based on abroad investigation of car engine malfunctions, index system suitable for motor engine security analysis is developed and fuzzy theory, a mature theory in the management science is induced in the security analysis. In the study, method and techniques for car engine security analysis and management are proposed. The real case proves that this index system and analytical technique are applicable, the analytical result could be used as theoretical references for security management, production manufacture and improvement, it could be used for analyzing similar automobile products.