Accommodation Capacity, Trade Openness and International Tourism Demand in Croatia

This paper investigates the determinants of international tourism demand in Croatia, a country whose economy is heavily dependent on tourism. A particular focus is placed on the role of accommodation capacity and trade openness, two demand drivers that have been rarely examined in combination. Using the difference GMM estimator, a dynamic panel model of international tourism demand in Croatia is estimated, employing annual data for 16 tourism generating countries from 2007 to 2019. The results show that the lagged dependent variable, income, accommodation capacity, and exchange rate have a positive effect on international tourism demand, while the impact of relative prices and trade openness prove to be irrelevant in the Croatian context.

Marital Strain and Support and Subjective Well-Being in Later Life: Ascribing a Role to Early-Life Conditions

Decades of research have the beneficial effects of marital support and the detrimental consequences of marital strain on health and well-being. However, we know relatively less about how circumstances in childhood—a key developmental period of the life course—influence the relational structure in which later life is embedded and any implications this may hold for well-being. We integrate the life course perspective with the stress process model to offer a framework for how childhood conditions (childhood happiness, family structure, and financial strain) moderate the relationship between marital support/strain and subjective well-being in older adulthood in potentially different ways for men and women. The consequences of marital strain may be more severe and the benefits of marital support may not be as strongly felt for those adults who experienced greater adversity during childhood. Drawing on longitudinal data from Waves 2 (2010-2011) and 3 (2015-2016) of the NSHAP project (N = 1,376), results from lagged dependent variable models suggest that marital support buffers the effect of not living with both parents in childhood on subjective well-being for men. Meanwhile, women raised in families that experienced financial hardship reported lower subjective well-being in the context of marital strain in later life. No significant interaction effects were obtained for childhood happiness. Taken together, our findings suggest that adverse experiences in childhood can be scarring, particularly in the context of strained intimate relationships. However, a supportive marriage can, in some cases, offset the effects of childhood hardship on subjective well-being in later life.

Gender Differences in the Link Between Informal Caregiving and Subjective Well-Being

Despite existing evidence on the negative association between informal caregiving and caregiver’s well-being, three important knowledge gaps remain. First, the link warrants further scrutiny due to the possibility of individual heterogeneity. Second, less is known about how informal caregiving is related to caregiver’s well-being. Third, there is little consensus in the literature regarding whether caregiver’s gender matters. This study fills these gaps in the literature. Using seven waves of a large-scale, nationally representative longitudinal study of older adults in Korea between 2006 and 2018, this study employed generalized estimating equations models with a lagged dependent variable as well as fixed effects models. Findings from both models revealed that informal caregiving is negatively associated with subjective well-being, and this association is largely driven by female caregivers. To explore potential mechanisms undergirding this association, we examined the mediating roles of a number of health behaviors. We found that engaging in informal caregiving is associated with a reduction in regular exercise. Results from mediation analyses, however, suggested that regular exercise explains only a moderate amount of the observed association (12% for health-related life satisfaction and 8% for self-rated health). While informal caregiving is obviously a rewarding role, it poses a serious threat to caregiver’s well-being. Findings of this study on gender differences in the well-being consequences of informal caregiving lend support to taking a gender-conscious approach in programs aiming to improve the well-being of informal caregivers.

181. Potential Benefit of Masking and other COVID-19 Infection Prevention Measures on Late-Onset Infections in the NICU

Background Incidence of blood stream infections (BSI) among NICU admissions remains high, with associated mortality and morbidity. Due to COVID-19, there are increased infection prevention (IP) measures in NICUs including universal masking for all healthcare workers and families, social distancing, visitation restrictions, and increased attention to hand hygiene. These measures may also affect late-onset infection rates and offer understanding of novel interventions for prevention. Methods We examined infection rates during the 24 months prior to implementation of COVID-19 IP measures (PRE-period) compared to the months after implementation from April 2020 (POST-period). Late-onset infections were defined as culture-confirmed infection of the blood, urine, or identification of respiratory viral pathogens. An interrupted time series analysis of infection per 1000 patient days was performed based on a change-point Poisson regression with a lagged dependent variable and the number of patient days used as offsets. Each month was treated as independent with additional analysis using an observation-driven model to account for serial dependence. Results Multicenter analysis to date included all infants cared for at three centers (Level 3 and 4) from 2018-2020. Monthly BSI rates decreased in the POST-period at the three centers (Figure 1). At all centers actual BSI rate was lower than the expected rate in the POST-period (Figure 2). The combined BSI rate per 1000 patient days was 41% lower compared to the rate prior to implementation (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.84, P=0.004) (Table 1). In subgroup analysis by birthweight, infants< 1000g had a 39% reduction in BSI (P=0.023), for1000-1500g patients there was a 44% reduction (P=0.292) and in those > 1500g there was a 53% reduction (0.083). Figure 1. PRE and POST MASKING and other COVID Infection Prevention Measures and Monthly BSI Rates. Figure 2. PRE and POST MASKING and other COVID infection prevention measures and BSI Trends. At all centers actual BSI rate was lower than the expected rate for that center in the POST period. UVA and Duke showed a baseline decrease and Pennsylvania Hospital showed a downward trend in infection rates. There was an approximate decrease in expected bloodstream infection events at Pennsylvania Hospital by 7 events, at UVA by 22 events and at Duke by 23 events. Overall, all three centers saw a decrease in their expected infections after COVID-19 infection prevention measures were implemented. Table 1. Percent reduction in Bloodstream Infection at each center. Conclusion In this preliminary analysis, we found a reduction of BSI after the implementation of COVID-19 infection prevention measures. Additionally, there were fewer viral infections, though there were a limited number of episodes. Further analyses of multicenter data and a larger number of patients will elucidate the significance of these findings and the role some of these IP measures such as universal masking may have in infection prevention in the NICU. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Marital Strain and Support and Subjective Well-Being in Later Life: Ascribing a Role to Childhood Adversity

Objectives: We integrate the life course perspective with the stress-process model to offer a framework for how childhood conditions moderate the relationship between marital support/strain and subjective well-being in older adulthood for men and women. Methods: Drawing on longitudinal data from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), we use a series of lagged dependent-variable models and stratify the sample by gender. Results: Our results suggest that the benefits associated with greater marital support are stronger for those that did not live with both parents in childhood for men. Women raised in families that experienced financial hardship reported lower subjective well-being in the context of marital strain. Conclusion: Adverse experiences in childhood can be scarring or foster resilience related to well-being in the context of strained or supportive marriages.

The effects of absent fathers on adolescent criminal activity: an economic approach

Simple ordinary least squares estimates indicate that absent fathers boost probabilities of adolescent criminal behavior by 16–38%, but those numbers likely are biased by unobserved heterogeneity. This paper first presents an economic model explaining that unobserved heterogeneity. Then turning to empirics, fixed effects, which attempt to address that bias, suggest that absent fathers reduce certain types of adolescent crime, while lagged-dependent variable models suggest the opposite. Those conflicting conclusions are resolved by an approach that combines those two estimators using an orthogonal reparameterization approach, with model parameters calculated using a Bayesian algorithm. The main finding is that absent fathers do not appear to directly affect adolescent criminal activity. Rather, families with absent fathers possess traits that appear to correlate with increased adolescent criminal behaviors.

Remittances, institutions and human development in Sub-Saharan Africa

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between remittances, institutions and human development (HD) in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using data from 2004 to 2018. The study attempts to answer two critical questions: Do the increasing remittances inflow to the region have any effect on human capital development? and does the effect of remittances on human development vary depending on the level of institutional quality?Design/methodology/approachThe analysis uses a dynamic model; system Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) as this approach controls for the endogeneity of the lagged dependent variable; thus, when there is a correlation between the explanatory variable and the error term, which is normally associated with remittances, it also controls for omitted variable bias, unobserved panel heterogeneity and measurement errors in the estimation.FindingsThe findings indicate a positive and significant impact of remittances on HD in SSA. The results further reveal a substitutional relationship between institutions and remittances in stimulating HD. The estimations mean that remittances promote HD in countries with a weak institutional environment. The findings also establish that the marginal significance of remittances as a source of capital for HD falls in countries with well-developed institutions.Originality/valueMost empirical research on the impact of remittances on HD does not tackle the problem of endogeneity associated with remittances. This study, however, provides empirical evidence by using Sys-GMM that solves the problem. The current study also is the first work to examine the relationship between remittances, institutions and HD in SSA and provides a new guide for future research on the remittance and HD nexus.

An empirical analysis of government interventions in ECOWAS: evidence from dynamic panel threshold

PurposeThe study examines whether the growth effect of government spending is contingent on the level of institutional environment prevalent in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the more refined and more appropriate dynamic threshold panel by Seo and Shin (2016) and made applicable be Seo et al. (2019). The technique models a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics and cross-sectional heterogeneity simultaneously in a dynamic threshold panel data framework.FindingsThe results show that there is a threshold effect in the government spending-growth relationship. Specifically, the authors found that the impact of government spending on economic growth is positive and statistically significant only above a certain threshold level of institutional development. Below that threshold, the effect of government spending on growth is insignificant and negative at best. The findings suggest that government spending-growth nexus is contingent on the level of Institutional quality.Originality/valueUnlike previous studies that adopt the linear interaction model which pre-impose a priori conditional restrictions, this study adopts the dynamic threshold panel framework which allows the lagged dependent variable and endogenous covariates.

Uncertainty in Faith, Fear of Death? Transitions in Religious Doubt and Death Anxiety in Later Life

While religiosity is usually associated with lower death anxiety, holding doubts about one’s faith are associated with higher death anxiety. Using longitudinal data from the Religion, Aging, and Health Study (2001–2004), this study examines within-individual changes in religious doubt and death anxiety. Results from lagged dependent variable models suggest that compared to older adults who did not experience any doubt about their faith, those holding consistently high doubt or increasing or decreasing doubt reported greater death anxiety. Lingering religious doubt was associated with higher death anxiety among weekly religious attenders. Taken together, our findings suggest that being more assured in one’s faith and spiritual understanding may lead to a more peaceful experience when confronting thoughts about one’s own mortality, especially for older adults holding a stronger religious identity. We situate our findings within the literature on the “dark side” of religion and well-being in later life.

Impact Evaluation of A Grant Program for Postgraduate Studies Undertaken Abroad: Analysis of the Ecuadorian Case

The National Secretary for Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation in Ecuador (locally SENESCYT) started an ambitious grants program in 2011. The main objective of the program was to send Ecuadorian students to undertake postgraduate studies at universities overseas. This article evaluates the impact of this grant policy on the labor income of the beneficiaries after they have completed their studies abroad and returned to Ecuador. Using a fixed-effects with lagged dependent variable model combined with a propensity score matching, we find a negative impact on the income of the grant holders during the first year following their return to the country. For the second year, the effect is non-significant. During the third year, the impact becomes significant and positive. The grant holders who returned having completed their postgraduate program abroad had a 9% higher employment income in the third year than those who did their postgraduate studies in Ecuador. The program's effect concentrates on women, the low-income group, and on those beneficiaries that studied in the USA.