Long-term relationship estimation and coupling/decoupling analysis between motorway traffic and Gross Value Added. Specification of an ARDL cointegration approach and application to the Italian case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 39-56
Author(s):  
Andrea Pompigna ◽  
Raffaele Mauro
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Heavy Vehicles ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Traffic Demand ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Bound Test

As transportation is an activity derived from spatial complementarities between a certain supply at an origin and a certain demand at a destination, according to a general axiom it seems that economic activities entail transport de-mand. In this perspective, an essential analysis deals with the quantification of the relationships between transport demand and certain socioeconomic variables. Elasticity is a concept widely used in transport economics as a measure of the responsiveness of transport demand concerning different factors represented as independent variables in an econometric model and coupling/decoupling concepts have been proposed in literature. This paper deals with the estimation of elasticities of motorway traffic demand based on Gross Value Added (GVA), and the consequent investiga-tion of coupling/decoupling situation. The analysis is based on the application of an Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model with the F-bound test and of the related Error Correction model. Starting from the general ARDL model and the methodology for the verification of its robustness, the same model is applied to the Italian toll road network. The time series of GVA for goods and services and the overall length of the toll network from 1995 to 2019 are considered as explanatory variables of the total annual distance traveled by light and heavy vehicles. The various tests in the ARDL framework show a cointegration between the variables, under the fulfillment of all the diag-nostic requirements. In this way, the long-term elasticities and the short-term adjustment dynamics are estimated sepa-rately for the goods and services components of GVA, and light and heavy vehicles. Starting from stable estimates of elasticities, the long-term coupling and decoupling effects between motorway traffic of light and heavy vehicles and the national production of goods and services can be shown. The paper, as well as providing an updated picture of the Italian situation, identifies a methodological framework that can be transferred to other contexts for a sector of great interest to investors, such as the motorway sector. All this can be useful to meet the needs of numerous stakeholders, who want to deepen the links between the economic cycle and traffic demand on toll motorways.

Modelling labour demand in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (11) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Kamila Radlińska ◽  
Krzysztof Jaros ◽  
Agnieszka Jakubowska ◽  
Anna Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Production Approach

The aim of the paper is to construct a long-term model of labour demand in Poland, in which the explanatory variables are the average gross salary and gross value added. Additionally, the authors attempt to detect labour hoarding. The study adopted the production approach, which used autoregressive distributed lag model with an ARDL-ECM error correction mechanism. The model parametres were estimated on the basis of quarterly data on the average number of persons employed, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added, all of which related to the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2018. The data used in the study came from Statistics Poland publications. The proposed approach estimated the actual demand for labour. In the analysed period, a long-term relationship between the average employment, the average monthly gross salary and gross value added was observed. Employment was decreasing as the average salary was growing, and its increase was connected with the production growth. Moreover, short-term deviations of the value of the actual employment from the value of employment estimated by the model were observed on the labour market, which indicates labour hoarding could have been taking place. However, due to an insufficient number of observations, the occurrence of this phenomenon could not be fully confirmed.

scholarly journals Contribution of Highly Qualified Employees to Regional Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 873-887
Author(s):  
Ilya A. Korshunov ◽  
Natalia N. Shirkova ◽  
Nikolay S. Zavivaev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Skill Requirements

Knowledge and skills concentrated in human capital are increasingly important factors of economic development. However, there is a lack of a methodology for determining, which skills are necessary for the efficient industrial development. To this end, we examine skill requirements of regional employers potentially leading to an increase in economic indicators. Skills in demand were compared with predicted indicators based on a se mantic content analysis of vacancy databases in various regions of the Russian Federation. It was revealed that the list of demanded competencies depends not on a geographical aspect but on a specific profession. An analysis of the obtained data demonstrated that the growth in demand for highly qualified employees in the Russian Federation is correlated with an increase in gross value added of relevant industries. A linear correlation between gross value added per employee and the need for skilled specialists was demonstrated on the example of the transport sector. The proposed methodology can be used by educational organisations for targeted training of specialists, as well as by employers and experts for forecasting medium- and long-term socio-economic development of Russian regions.

scholarly journals DAMPAK PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI, PENGELUARAN RUMAH TANGGA, DAN KETERBUKAAN PERDAGANGAN TERHADAP KONSUMSI ENERGI FINAL DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Bambang Priyo Cahyono ◽  
Yusro Hakimah
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Final Energy ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Final Energy Consumption

This study investigates the impact of economic growth on three main development sectors, household final consumption expenditure, and trade openness towards the growth of final energy consumption in Indonesia using annual data for the period 1972-2016. We applied autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedures which consist of stationarity test, cointegration test, as well as estimation the short-term and long-term relationships. The cointegration test revealed existence cointegration<br />relationship among the variables in the model. In the short-term and long-term model, our results indicated that the growth of value-added in agriculture sector and industry sector, household final consumption expenditures, and trade openness in the short-term and long-term have a significant effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia, while the growth of value-added in the service sector only given a short-term effect toward final energy consumption in Indonesia. Based on these<br />results, it can be concluded that sustainable economic development in Indonesia needs to be accompanied by the development of new and renewable energy in order to fulfil domestic energy supply which is predicted to continue to increase rapidly in the future.<br />Keyword : final energi consumption, economic development, household final consumption expenditure, trade openness, autoregressive distributed lag modeling<br />JEL Classification : D1, E21, F14, O13, Q43.

scholarly journals Stride of Service Sector in Nepal’s Trajectories of Structural Change

2018 ◽  
pp. 69-98
Author(s):  
Madhav Prasad Dahal
Keyword(s):  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Gross Value Added

Agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors are the major economic sectors of a country. The long held view is that economies’ development trajectories move from agriculture to manufacturing to services. These conclusions are primarily based on the studies of developed countries. However more recent studies relating to developing countries have brought evidences that the structural transformation path is not linear as experienced by today’s developed countries. Nepal is not an exception is experiencing the waves of sector-wise structural transformation. Using time series data of the period 1975-2016 of the economy of Nepal this paper analyses the association between gross value added and service sector value added in the analytic-framework of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to cointegration. The empirical result reveal a cointegrating relationship between real gross value added and service sector value added. Result also show service sector enhancing role of education and export trade of Nepal. The paper finally draws few policy implications essential for service sector sustainability to support overall economic growth.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 21 & 22 No. 1-2 (2016) Combined Issue

scholarly journals The Shift-Share Method: An Instrument for Analyzing the Dynamics of Industry Structure of the Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 87 (4) ◽  
pp. 36-47
Author(s):  
Т. Ye. Trubnik ◽  
О. К. Mazurenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Regional Factors ◽  
Bank System ◽  
The Impact

The socio-economic events of the latest years and uncertainties in the vectors of development of the economic environment cause the need for robust statistical assessment. An important area of studies of the modern economy is determining the type of economic growth. The shift-share method is applied to determine the effect of the impact of national, industrial and regional factors on the dynamics of economic growth. The shares of effects (effects of the impact) caused by national economy trends, industry mix and region-specific factors are identified and analyzed. The position of economic activities in the industry mix of the Kyiv economy is analyzed and assessed by indicators of gross value added and number of employees with consideration to three components. The impact of each of them caused by the national factors, the established industry mix of the national economy and the internal competitiveness of a specific industry of the region are characterized. Factor decomposition of the change in the indicators caused by the national component, industry-specific and region-specific effects reveals that the overall growth in the gross value added by economic activity in Kyiv is to a large extent conditional on the effective industry policy and to the least extent on regional factors. However, the employment reduction in the Ukrainian capital was caused by the impact of national and industry factors, and was not compensated by the positive local effect. It is revealed that the stable flagship position is taken by financial and insurance activities, in spite of recent reforms in the bank sector with cleansing the bank system from ineffective and nontransparent entities. Kyiv remains to be the core center for concentration of financial services. The progressive growth in the construction market meets the needs of the megalopolis with its increasing population. The residents’ desire to expand the dwelling size and improve the living conditions helps improve business climate in the construction sector, increase its growth rates and share in the gross regional product (indirectly, through the gross value added).       The section “Information and telecommunications” stands steadily on the top positions. Its rapid development, as a signal of the digital economy, enables for momentary exchanges of information and services on the domestic and external market, thus creating favorable prospects.   The analysis of the composition of the problem group and the outsider group among the economic activities reveals the stable presence of manufacturing and social industries. Enterprises of the sections “Manufacturing”, “Supply of electricity, gas, steam and conditioned air”, “Supply of water, sanitation, treatment of wastes” have a stock of problems and system drawbacks; they suffer from lack of investment and innovation, they have no strong orientation on the challenges of modernity and market needs, which weakens the positions of the Ukrainian capitals’ economy as the industrial center. It is proposed to use the graphic method for illustrating the distribution of economic activities in Kyiv by quality characteristics of operation. The factors accelerating or hampering the development of economic activities in the region are determined. Recommendations on management decisions related with future operation of industries referred to as “leaders”, “regulars”, problematic industries and outsiders are given.

scholarly journals Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-104
Author(s):  
Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Bound Test

Objective – The preceding three years (2014, 2015, and 2016) saw a drop in the price of oil which has impacted all parts of Omani macroeconomic life. This study aims to identify the association between oil price changes and aggregate household consumption expenditure in the Sultanate by analyzing the long term relationship between the variables of interest. Methodology/Technique – The (ARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag bound test of co-integration is used with 27 annual observations obtained between 1990 and 2016. Findings – The statistical results show that there is a long term, positive relationship between the two variables. Novelty – As Oman is heavily dependent on oil, any fluctuation in the price of oil will undoubtedly cause instability in the economy (macroeconomic variables) demonstrating the presence of a robust correlation between consumption and oil prices. The bound test of the ARDL approach demonstrates this relationship. This study is therefore useful for Muscat officials to identify ways to reduce the dependency on oil. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Total Household Consumption Expenditure; Crude Oil Price; Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL); Omani Economy. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Abubakar El-Sidig A.A Mahdi. 2019. Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Household Consumption Expenditure in Oman (1990-2016), J. Bus. Econ. Review 4 (2): 97 – 104. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2019.4.2(4) JEL Classification: D1, D13, D19, E30.

The Russian Tax System: A View from the Inside

2012 ◽  
pp. 116-132
Author(s):  
S. Sayfieva
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
System A ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Control Net ◽  
Over Time

The article considers the tax potential of the composition of GDP by type of primary incomes in 2000—2010 by main economic activities and branches of industry. The analysis has shown that the components of GDP, which decline (net income), comprise the basis of the tax system; meanwhile the proportion of the components, hardly covered by taxation (hidden salary), or those, which taxation is difficult to control (net mixed income), increases. The author comes to the conclusion that the proportion of the industry tax burden and the share of gross value added in GDP should be balanced. Otherwise, the tax system becomes ineffective. The analysis of the structure of industry tax revenues over time suggests a high differentiation of taxes on economic activities and industries.

scholarly journals Tourism contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Value Added (GVA)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 176-182
Author(s):  
Milin Ioana Anda ◽  
Merce Iuliana Ioana ◽  
Iancu Tiberiu ◽  
Pet Elena ◽  
Tigan Eugenia
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Series ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Tertiary Sector ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The overall evolution of the economy is usually appreciated by two macroeconomic indicators GDP and GVA, which by their value gives us clear information on the state of the economy.  Gross domestic product (GDP), the main macroeconomic aggregate of national accounts, is the final result of the production activity of resident producer units and which corresponds to the value of goods and services produced by these units for final consumption. Gross Value Added (GVA) is the balance of the production account and is measured as the difference between the value of the goods and services produced (valued at basic prices) and the intermediate consumption (valued at the buyer's prices), thus representing the new value created in the production process. GVA is calculated before calculating the consumption of fixed capital. Since 1990, we have been confronted with a major restructuring of the way GDP and GVA are created due to the intensive process of restructuring the economy. In the paper we will analyze the basis of the processing of national statistical data, how the tourism component of the tertiary sector contributes to the formation of the aggregate indicators presented above. In 2016, Romania had a GDP of 169.6 billion euros, below the Czech level (174.4 billion euros), Greece (175.9 billion euros) and Portugal (184.9 billion euros). Data series published by the European Statistical Office show that in the first quarter of this year, Romania's GDP adjusted for seasonal influences was 44.2 billion euros, while the value of GDP- Greece was 43.96 billion euros, the Czech Republic's 44.85 billion euros, and Portugal's 47.37 billion euros. In terms of GVA training, Romania is included in the European Union's Statistical Yearbook 201 6 as the country with the largest contributions to the Gross Value Added  in the economy from industry, agriculture and construction, simultaneously with the lowest Public sector contribution (administration, defense, education, health and social welfare, etc.) Although professional, scientific and technical activities have seen the largest increase in the share of Gross Value Added  training, they remain below the average of 10.4% Registered on the whole EU. There is an increase in the art, entertainment, recreation and other activities related to tourism - which brought us near the European customs and contributed to the "structural convection" of the Romanian economy. Touristic activity, particularly complex, with upstream and downstream implications, generates a tourism industry, whose components contribute to the formation of GDP and national  Gross Value Added   We will analyze the share of tourism in Romania's Gross Domestic Product in the period 2008-2014, gross value added in the tourism industry  direct gross value added from tourism  and gross domestic product of tourism  in 2013 and 2014.   Keywords: macroeconomic indicators, tourism industry, Gross Domestic Product, Gross Value Added economy

scholarly journals Pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN), penanaman modal asing (PMA), ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276
Author(s):  
Dian Setia Ningsih ◽  
Haryadi Haryadi ◽  
Siti Hodijah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Poverty And Inequality ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the development of PMDN, PMA, Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Jambi province and to analyze the influence of PMDN, PMA, Exports, and Imports on economic growth in Jambi province. The analysis model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results showed that in the short term PMDN had a significant negative effect on economic growth. PMA has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Exports have a significant positive effect on economic growth. In the long term, PMDN has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. PMA has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. The export variable has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. And imports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. It is hoped that economic growth will continue to increase from year to year, so the government must play an important role in increasing economic activities that have existing potentials so that the people's income is high which also reduces poverty and inequality that occurs.

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