Travel Choice Behavior Model Based on Mental Accounting of Travel Time and Cost

This paper analyzes the utility calculation principle of travelers from the perspective of mental accounting and proposes a travel choice behavior model that considers travel time and cost (MA-TC model). Then, a questionnaire is designed to analyze the results of the travel choice under different decision-making scenarios. Model parameters are estimated using nonlinear regression, and the utility calculation principles are developed under different hypothetical scenarios. Then, new expressions for the utility function under deterministic and risky conditions are presented. For verification, the nonlinear correlation coefficient and hit rate are used to compare the proposed MA-TC model with the other two models: (1) the classical prospect theory with travel time and cost (PT-TC model) and (2) mental accounting based on the original hedonic editing criterion (MA-HE model). The results show that model parameters under deterministic and risky conditions are pretty different. In the deterministic case, travelers have similar sensitivity to the change in gain and loss of travel time and cost. The prediction accuracy of the MA-TC model is 3% lower than the PT-TC model and 6% higher than the MA-HE model. Under risky conditions, travelers are more sensitive to the change in loss than to the change in gain. Additionally, travelers tend to overestimate small probabilities and underestimate high probabilities when losing more than when gaining. The prediction accuracy of the MA-TC model is 2% higher than the PT-TC model and 6% higher than the MA-HE model.

Towards a higher order thinking skills-oriented translation competence model

This article aims at exploring translation competence (TC) from the perspective of higher-order thinking skills (HOTS), and developing a HOTS-oriented TC model accordingly. The underlying assumption is that the translation competence needed to solve ill-structured translation problems is highly integrated HOTS in essence. Based on this assumption, a framework for HOTS-oriented TC is presented, using features from the PACTE group’s TC model, and combining it with HOTS-specific features. Subsequently, a HOTS-oriented TC model is constructed, which consists of three interrelated parts: HOTS (i.e., translation problem-solving ability, translation decision-making ability, translation creative-thinking ability, and translation critical thinking ability); translation knowledge, and translation thinking dispositions. Additionally, two other assumptions are made as scaffolding to support our HOTS-oriented TC model. Finally, implications for TC studies and translation pedagogy are provided.

Providing Treatment in a Prison-Based Therapeutic Community for Those Who Have Committed Sexual Offences

This article explores some of the difficulties inherent in managing risk in those who have committed sexual or other violent offences and how this may impact on their ability to re-integrate into the community. It discusses the work undertaken at HMP Grendon, a prison-based therapeutic community (TC), to address these difficulties and help residents develop a pro-social lifestyle starting in custody and continuing on release. The article aims to describe how the TC model offers a containing and adaptive environment, and how this can provide opportunities to address offence-related behaviour, which is not always possible in other prison settings. Furthermore, it describes some of the difficulties inherent in undertaking work of this nature, in the need for an accurate understanding of the relevant areas of risk, and the tensions developing a therapeutic relationship with individuals with complex needs. Methods of assessment of risk and need are discussed, and how they are used in a collaborative manner to have the most accurate picture of what will help residents to maintain their pro-social lifestyle on release.

Track Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Errors in the COAMPS-TC Model

This study examines the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors on track forecast errors in the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model. Using real-time forecasts and retrospective experiments during 2015-2018, verification of TC intensity errors conditioned on different 5-day track error thresholds shows that reducing the 5-day track errors by 50-70% can help reduce the absolute intensity errors by 18-20% in the 2018 version of the COAMPS-TC model. Such impacts of track errors on the TC intensity errors are most persistent at 4-5 day lead times in all three major ocean basins, indicating a significant control of global models on the forecast skill of the COAMPS-TC model. It is of interest to find, however, that lowering the 5-day track errors below 80 nm does not reduce TC absolute intensity errors further. Instead, the 4-5 day intensity errors appear to be saturated at around 10-12 kt for cases with small track errors, thus suggesting the existence of some inherent intensity errors in regional models.Additional idealized simulations under a perfect model scenario reveal that the COAMPS-TC model possesses an intrinsic intensity variation at the TC mature stage in the range of 4-5 kt, regardless of the large-scale environment. Such intrinsic intensity variability in the COAMPS-TC model highlights the importance of potential chaotic TC dynamics, rather than model deficiencies, in determining TC intensity errors at 4-5 day lead times. These results indicate a fundamental limit in the improvement of TC intensity forecasts by numerical models that one should consider in future model development and evaluation.

An Improved Predictive Model for Determining the Permeability Coefficient of Artificial Clayey Soil Based on Double T2 Cut-Offs

Permeability is one of the most important engineering properties of clayey soil. However, the traditional method for determining the permeability coefficient is time-consuming. To establish a simple and accurate predictive method to obtain the permeability coefficient of artificial clayey soil based on the double cut-off transverse relaxation times (T2 cut-offs) using low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) technology, eight kinds of artificial clayey soil with different mineralogical compositions were prepared in the laboratory. Evaporation tests at 40°C were carried out on the saturated artificial clayey soil samples in an oven. During the evaporation process, NMR tests were also performed on the artificial clayey soil every hour. The results showed that the evaporation process could be divided into three stages according to different evaporation rates: the constant rate stage (CRS), the falling rate stage (FRS), and the residual stage (RS). The water evaporated in the CRS and FRS was defined as the absolute movable water and the partially movable water, respectively. The water that could not evaporate in the RS was defined as the immovable water. Based on the cumulative signal amplitudes in the T2 spectrum corresponding to different kinds of water, the double T2 cut-offs were defined. On the basis of the double T2 cut-offs and T2 spectrum of the saturated sample, an improved Timur–Coates (TC) model was established. The prediction capability of the improved model was evaluated by finding the determination coefficient (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root-mean-square error (RMSE). Compared with the typical TC model, the prediction accuracy of the improved model was much higher. In addition, the relationships between the double T2 cut-offs and fractal dimension (D) of the T2 spectrum of saturated artificial clayey soil were also identified.

Challenges and Opportunities with New Generation Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Datasets for Analyses and Initial Conditions for Forecasting Hurricane Irma (2017) Rapid Intensification Event

This study utilizes an extremely high spatial resolution GOES-16 atmospheric motion vector (AMV) dataset processed at 15 min intervals in a modified version of our original dynamic initialization technique to analyze and forecast a rapid intensification (RI) event in Hurricane Irma (2017). The most important modifications are a more time-efficient dynamic initialization technique and adding a near-surface wind field adjustment as a low-level constraint on the distribution of deep convection relative to the translating center. With the new technique, the Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model initial wind field at 12.86 km elevation quickly adjusts to the cirrus-level GOES-16 AMVs to better detect the Irma outflow magnitude and areal extent every 15 min, and predicts direct connections to adjacent synoptic circulations much better than a dynamic initialization with only lower-resolution hourly GOES-13 AMVs and also better than a cold-start COAMPS-TC initialization with a bogus vortex. Furthermore, only with the GOES-16 AMVs does the COAMPS-TC model accurately predict the timing of an intermediate 12 h constant-intensity period between two segments of the Irma RI. By comparison, HWRF model study of the Irma case that utilized the same GOES-16 AMV dataset predicted a continuous RI without the intermediate constant-intensity period, and predicted more limited outflow areal extents without strong direct connections with adjacent synoptic circulations.

How Much Does the Upward Advection of the Supergradient Component of Boundary Layer Wind Contribute to Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Maximum Intensity?

Although the development of supergradient winds is well understood, the importance of supergradient winds in tropical cyclone (TC) intensification is still under debate. One view is that the spinup of the eyewall occurs by the upward advection of high tangential momentum associated with supergradient winds from the boundary layer. The other view argues that the upward advection of supergradient winds by eyewall updrafts results in an outward agradient force, leading to the formation of a shallow outflow layer immediately above the inflow boundary layer. As a result, the spinup of tangential wind in the eyewall by the upward advection of supergradient wind from the boundary layer is largely offset by the spindown of tangential wind due to the outflow resulting from the agradient force. In this study, the net contribution by the upward advection of the supergradient wind component from the boundary layer to the intensification rate and final intensity of a TC are quantified through ensemble sensitivity numerical experiments using an axisymmetric TC model. Results show that consistent with the second view above, the positive upward advection of the supergradient wind component from the boundary layer by eyewall updrafts is largely offset by the negative radial advection due to the outflow resulting from the outward agradient force. As a result, the upward advection of the supergradient wind component contributes little (often less than 4%) to the intensification rate and but it contributes about 10%–15% to the final intensity of the simulated TC due to the enhanced inner-core air–sea thermodynamic disequilibrium.

Comprehensive breast cancer (BC) risk assessment for CHEK2 carriers incorporating a polygenic risk score (PRS) and the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) model.

1504 Background: Women with pathogenic variants in the moderate penetrance CHEK2 gene have on average an estimated > 20% lifetime risk for breast cancer, thereby meeting an established threshold for more aggressive screening, including consideration of breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, we previously showed that CHEK2 penetrance is modified by an 86-SNP PRS. CHEK2 risk is further modified by family history (FH) and other TC model variables. Here, we describe development of a comprehensive risk prediction model for women of European ancestry to more precisely estimate risk by incorporating CHEK2, PRS and TC V7.02. The number of CHEK2 carriers with low ( < 20%), moderate (20%-50%) and high ( > 50%) remaining lifetime risk based on the combined model was examined in an independent study cohort. Methods: This IRB-approved study included de-identified clinical records from 358,471 women of European ancestry who were tested clinically for hereditary cancer risk with a multi-gene panel. Model development was based on analysis of CHEK2 PV carriers ( N= 4,331) and women negative for BC gene PV ( N =353,681) who were tested between September 2013 and July 2019. Risk estimates incorporating CHEK2, PRS and TC were calculated using a fixed-stratified (FS) method that accounts for correlations between risk factors in a manner equivalent to multivariable co-estimation. Risk stratification was assessed in an independent cohort of CHEK2 carriers ( N= 459) who were tested after July 2019 and not included in model development. Results: We detected significant correlation of CHEK2 status with FH ( p= 4.1 × 10−17) and of PRS with FH among CHEK2 carriers ( p= 1.7× 10−5). For these factors, joint effects were co-estimated using the FS method. In an independent cohort, 24.0% of CHEK2 carriers were categorized as low risk ( < 20%), and 62.6% were categorized as moderate risk (20-50%). For 13.4% of CHEK2 carriers, risk estimation incorporating PRS and TC generated BC risks of greater than 50%, consistent with genes recognized as highly penetrant. Conclusions: In CHEK2 PV carriers, comprehensive risk assessment could inform individualized decision-making and may lead to improved targeting of screening and prevention strategies.

Performance of the IBIS/Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) Model by race/ethnicity in the Women’s Health Initiative.

1503 Background: The TC model, a breast cancer (BC) risk assessment tool based on family cancer history, reproductive and lifestyle factors is used to guide BC screening and prevention. TC was developed and validated largely in non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. We evaluated the calibration and discrimination of TC version 7.02 among racially/ethnically diverse post-menopausal women enrolled in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) clinical trials or observational study. Methods: WHI enrolled post-menopausal women from 1993-1998 and followed them prospectively for BC incidence. We included women aged ≤80 years at enrollment with no prior BC or mastectomy and with data required for TC, including weight, height, ages at menarche, first birth and menopause, menopausal hormone therapy use and family history of breast or ovarian cancer in first or second-degree relatives. Calibration was assessed by the ratio of observed BC cases to the number expected by TC (O/E), with expected cases calculated as the sum of cumulative hazards. We tested for differential discrimination by race/ethnicity (NHW, African American, Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, Native American, other) using Cox regression. Time to BC was modeled using age, race/ethnicity, TC estimate (transformed by log of relative lifetime risk), and a term for interaction between race/ethnicity and TC estimate. Results: During the follow-up period (median 18.9 years, maximum 23.4 years), 6,836 new BC cases were diagnosed among 91,893 women. TC was well-calibrated overall (O/E 0.95) in NHW and African Americans, but over-estimated risk for Hispanics (O/E 0.75, Table). Results suggested good calibration for Asian/Pacific Islanders and Native Americans, but sample sizes were small. Discrimination did not differ significantly by race/ethnicity (two-sided p-value for interaction = 0.33). Conclusions: TC provided similar risk discrimination among post-menopausal women of different racial/ethnic groups over nearly 20 years of follow-up; however, it overestimated risk for Hispanics. Future studies in diverse populations are warranted, with need for a more accurate breast cancer risk assessment tool for Hispanics. [Table: see text]

SUN-374 Decisions to Accept or Decline Pharmacologic Osteoporosis Therapy After Attending a Novel Patient-Centred Educonsult Program for Osteoporosis (PEP-OP)

Osteoporosis affects &gt;200 million people, resulting in &gt;8.9 million annual fragility fractures worldwide. Available medications can reduce fracture risk by 40–60%, although access to specialty osteoporosis services is limited, and many individuals remain unaware of their fracture risk and their treatment options. As the one-on-one ‘traditional consultation’ (TC) model of osteoporosis care is not time efficient (i.e. a single TC often requires &gt;45 minutes), there is a need to identify innovative consultative models that can improve accessibility to osteoporosis care while maintaining quality. At our Osteoporosis Centre, we have implemented a group counseling model for this purpose: the Patient-Centred Educonsult Program for Osteoporosis (PEP-OP). Each two-hour PEP-OP session - co-facilitated by an osteoporosis physician and a nurse - provides up to 10 patients (the equivalent to 3–5 half-day physician clinics under the TC model) with a combined consultative and educational experience consisting of an individualized fracture risk assessment and extensive review of medications available to lower fracture risk. Patients are then encouraged to make an informed, autonomous decision about osteoporosis treatment initiation. Although the PEP-OP can accommodate a greater patient volume than the TC, and we have previously reported that the PEP-OP results in high patient satisfaction, it is not known whether PEP-OP produce similar results compared to TC in terms of treatment decisions. In this cohort study, we compared decisions to initiate osteoporosis therapy in PEP-OP (N=100) and TC (N=43) attendees. Ten-year risk of major osteoporotic fracture was estimated for each participant using the FRAX calculator, and participants were stratified based on whether their ten-year risk was ≥20% or &lt;20%. Proportion of participants in each risk category who decided to initiate treatment were compared between the PEP-OP and TC groups. PEP-OP and TC groups were comparable in terms of age (63.3 vs 64.9 years), BMI (24.4 vs 24.9 kg/m2), previous fragility fractures (35 vs 25%), parental hip fractures (19 vs 23%), lumbar neck T-score (-2.5 vs -2.3), femoral neck T-score (-2.1 vs -2.1) and average FRAX estimate (13.1 vs 13.3%). The proportion of participants at high ten-year risk of major osteoporotic fracture (≥20%) who decided to initiate treatment was similar in both the PEP-OP (7/16, 44%) and TC (5/10, 50%) groups, according to the Chi Square Test (p=0.76). Among those with FRAX estimate of &lt;20%, a similar proportion of patients in the PEP-OP (15/84, 18%) and TC (4/33, 12%) groups chose to undergo treatment (X2, p=0.45). In summary, decisions to initiate pharmacologic therapy were similar for the PEP-OP and the TC. Considering that the PEP-OP is acceptable to patients and is more efficient than the TC, this care model should be considered by other centers wishing to improve access to high-quality osteoporosis care.