Locational Marginal Price Forecasting Using SVR-Based Multi-Output Regression in Electricity Markets

Electricity markets provide valuable data for regulators, operators, and investors. The use of machine learning methods for electricity market data could provide new insights about the market, and this information could be used for decision-making. This paper proposes a tool based on multi-output regression method using support vector machines (SVR) for LMP forecasting. The input corresponds to the active power load of each bus, in this case obtained through Monte Carlo simulations, in order to forecast LMPs. The LMPs provide market signals for investors and regulators. The results showed the high performance of the proposed model, since the average prediction error for fitting and testing datasets of the proposed method on the dataset was less than 1%. This provides insights into the application of machine learning method for electricity markets given the context of uncertainty and volatility for either real-time and ahead markets.

Rural Adaptation to Climate Change: New Findings and Existing Knowledge

This paper discusses the results of new research at the farm level regarding farmers’ responses to climate change. These results are placed in the context of existing literature. The topics include the benefits of adaptation, the forms of adaptation, and the drivers of adaptation such as land tenure, water allocation systems, the operation of labor markets, and the extent of social capital. Moreover, this paper examines farmers’ responses to market signals as they consider adaptation options and the connections of these options with infrastructure quality. It also reviews policy options that support adaptation.

EXPRESS: Sales and Self: The Non-Economic Value of Selling the Fruits of One’s Labor

A core assumption across many disciplines is that producers enter market exchange relationships for economic reasons. This research examines an overlooked factor, namely the socio-emotional benefits of selling the fruits of one’s labor. Specifically, the authors find that individuals selling their products interpret sales as a signal from the market, which serves as a source of self-validation, thus increasing their happiness above and beyond any monetary rewards from those sales. This effect highlights an information asymmetry that is opposite to that in traditional signaling theory. That is, the authors find that customers have information about the quality of products that they signal to the producer, validating the producer’s skill level. Further, the sales-as-signal effect is moderated by characteristics of the purchase transaction that determine the signal strength of sales: the effect is attenuated when product choice does not reflect a deliberate decision and is amplified when buyers incur higher monetary costs. In addition, sales have a stronger effect on happiness than alternative, non-monetary forms of market signals such as Likes. Finally, the sales-as-signal effect is more pronounced when individuals sell their self-made (vs. other-made) products and affects individuals’ happiness beyond the happiness gained from producing.

Capabilities Accumulation and Development

The chapter analyzes the basic ingredients and processes underlying the “great transformation” from traditional, mostly rural economies to economies driven by industrial activities and advanced services, able to systematically learn, imitate, and innovate. In that transformation, a major driver is the accumulation of knowledge and capabilities. Thus, the chapter addresses the nature of such knowledge and the ways its accumulation co-evolves with the “economic machine”—presiding over income growth and distribution—and with the systems of social relations, institutions, and policies. The latter are crucial in nurturing (or hindering) technological and organizational learning. Even if these vary a lot across historical experiences, all successful episodes have in common fundamental departures from “pure market” prescriptions, but rather shape market signals and the very nature and strategies of economic actors. Finally, in the context of these “historical lessons,” the chapter focuses on the analogies and specifications of the case of China.

Drivers of Growth and Decline in Sahelian Livestock Sectors

Sahelian livestock systems, an indelible feature of its landscapes and significant contributor to its economies, are under significant pressures to change. Whereas high predicted demand increases for livestock products offer great prospects for income growth, expansion of croplands and settlements as well as climate change will likely negatively impact Sahelian producers. It is clear that for Sahel to respond to livestock market opportunities, changes in traditional trade and production practices are needed, in particular to improve reach of market signals to producers, reduce the high transaction costs, and improve productivity. The Sahelian markets have to date shown continued capacity to supply growing Sahelian and regional markets, and in fact the changes, are already evident. These include expansion and diversification of trader networks, changing procurement patterns, agricultural expansion, and increased use of supplemental feeds, among others. These changes are certain to further evolve.

Suspecting service overprovisions: how market signals help restore personal control and reduce decision deferrals

Purpose Service providers often recommend unnecessary and expensive services to unsuspecting consumers, such as recommending a new part when a simple fix to the old will do, a phenomenon known as overprovisioning. The purpose of this paper is to examine to what extent consumers tend to defer their decisions should they suspect that sellers are overproviding services to them and they cannot prevent the sellers from doing so (they lack personal control); and how proper market signals can mitigate such suspicions, restore personal control and reduce deferrals. Design/methodology/approach The paper conducts three laboratory experiments. The experiments expose the participants to hypothetical repair scenarios and measure to what extent they suspect that sellers might be overproviding services to them and they feel that they lack the personal control to prevent the sellers from doing so. Thereafter, the experiments expose them to two different market signals, one conveying that the seller is providing quality services (a repair warranty; quality signal) and the other conveying that the seller is taking away any incentives their agents (technicians) may have to overprovide services (the technicians are paid a flat salary; quantity signal). The paper examines how these quality/quantity signals are able to reduce overprovisioning suspicions, restore personal control and reduce decision deferrals. Findings The paper has two main findings. First, the paper shows a mediation process at work i.e. suspecting potential overprovisioning by sellers leads consumers to defer their decisions indirectly because they feel that they lack personal control to prevent the sellers from doing so. Second, the paper shows that the quantity signal (flat salary disclosure), but not the quality signal (warranty), is able to mitigate suspicions of overprovisioning, restore personal control and reduce decision deferrals. Practical implications The paper suggests that although buyers may rely on quality signals to assure them of superior service, these signals do not guarantee that the quantity of service they are receiving is appropriate. Therefore, sellers will have to send a credible quality signal and a credible quantity signal to the consumers if they wish to tackle suspicions about service overprovision and service quality. Originality/value The paper is original in two ways. First, the paper theorizes and tests a mediation process model whereby quality/quantity signals differentially mitigate overprovisioning suspicions, restore personal control and reduce decision deferrals. Second, the paper speaks to the necessity of expanding the traditional signaling literature, designed primarily to detect poor quality hidden in the products/services of lower-quality sellers, to include detecting/solving overprovisioning often hidden in the services provided by higher-quality sellers.

Prioritization of Alternative Agricultural Products Based on Market Signals as a Tool for the Development of Innovative Projects

The Decentralized Autonomous Government of the province of Chimborazo promotes the agricultural productive development of the province by promoting entrepreneurship, and improving the capacities of producers, access to production factors, and integration of actors and subjects of agriculture and management on the basis to strategic planning. The construction of the Chimborazo Competitiveness Agenda was a participatory process that identified opportunities to improve the agricultural sector, where agricultural production at the primary level was recognized as a vocation and strength of the province; however, a strategic necessity was to establish possibilities of adding value and diversifying agricultural production. The definition of a set of agricultural products with high potential at the primary level and/or in agroindustrial processes that are not deeply explored required determining market signals to identify new medium- and long-term commercial possibilities for Chimborazo farmers. Additionally, it was recognized that the management of the province of Chimborazo was based on its management of the Millennium Development Goals, the Constitution of the Republic, the National Plan for Development in a Supra-Provincial Framework, as well as the Plan Development of Chimborazo, the Territorial Planning Plan and others that promoted planning with a focus on territorial and solidarity sustainable development. Keywords: Chimborazo, productive development, entrepreneurship, agricultural sector. Resumen El Gobierno Autónomo Descentralizado de la Provincia de Chimborazo impulsa el fomento productivo agrícola de la provincia mediante la promoción del emprendimiento, el mejoramiento de las capacidades de los productores, acceso a factores de producción, integración de los actores y sujetos del agro y gestión en base a una planificación estratégica. Como parte de dicho accionar, la construcción de la Agenda de Competitividad Chimborazo fue un proceso participativo que identificó oportunidades para mejorar el sector agrícola, donde se reconoció la producción agrícola a nivel primario como una vocación y fortaleza de la provincia, no obstante, una necesidad estratégica fue el establecer posibilidades de agregación de valor y de diversificar la producción agrícola. La definición de un conjunto de productos agrícolas con alto potencial a nivel primario y/o en procesos agroindustriales que no están profundamente explorados requirió determinar señales de mercado para identificar posibilidades comerciales nuevas a mediano y largo plazo para los agricultores de Chimborazo. Adicionalmente, se reconoció que la gestión de la provincia de Chimborazo tuvo como base los Objetivos del Milenio, la Constitución de la República, el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo en un marco supra-provincial, así como el Plan de Desarrollo de Chimborazo, el Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial y otros en su conjunto que promovieron una planificación con un enfoque de desarrollo sostenible territorial y solidario. Palabras clave: Chimborazo, fomento productivo, emprendimiento, sector agrícola.

Legal status of a renewables self-consumer under Polish law in light of Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources

The rapid spread of RES technologies, due to regulatory pressure and a dramatic decrease in their construction and operation costs, makes it possible for citizens to become active participants in the energy market. European Union’s legislation demands that citizens should be empowered to actively participate in the energy market by responding to market signals and in return benefit from lower electricity prices or other incentives. The aim of the article is to present and evaluate the concept of the renewables self-consumer regulated in the Polish Renewable Energy Sources Act in the light of the content of Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11th December 2018 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources.

The Impact of Signals Transmission on Patients’ Choice through E-Consultation Websites: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Datasets

(1) Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically and rapidly changed the overall picture of healthcare in the way how doctors care for their patients. Due to the significant strain on hospitals and medical facilities, the popularity of web-based medical consultation has drawn the focus of researchers during the deadly coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the United States. Healthcare organizations are now reacting to COVID-19 by rapidly adopting new tools and innovations such as e-consultation platforms, which refer to the delivery of healthcare services digitally or remotely using digital technology to treat patients. However, patients’ utilization of different signal transmission mechanisms to seek medical advice through e-consultation websites has not been discussed during the pandemic. This paper examines the impact of different online signals (online reputation and online effort), offline signals (offline reputation) and disease risk on patients’ physician selection choice for e-consultation during the COVID-19 crisis. (2) Methods: Drawing on signaling theory, a theoretical model was developed to explore the antecedents of patients’ e-consultation choice toward a specific physician. The model was tested using 3-times panel data sets, covering 4231 physicians on Healthgrades and Vitals websites during the pandemic months of January, March and May 2020. (3) Results: The findings suggested that online reputation, online effort and disease risk were positively related to patients’ online physician selection. The disease risk has also affected patients’ e-consultation choice. A high-risk disease positively moderates the relationship between online reputation and patients’ e-consultation choice, which means market signals (online reputation) are more influential than seller signals (offline reputation and online effort). Hence, market signals strengthened the effect in the case of high-risk disease. (4) Conclusions: The findings of this study provide practical suggestions for physicians, platform developers and policymakers in online environments to improve their service quality during the crisis. This article offers a practical guide on using emerging technology to provide virtual care during the pandemic. This study also provides implications for government officials and doctors on the potentials of consolidating virtual care solutions in the near future in order to contribute to the integration of emerging technology into healthcare.