Empirical determination of sustainable withdrawal rates considering historical yields and inflation rates in Germany

On account of the current low interest rate phase, which is most likely to continue in the coming years, the average yields to be achieved in the bond, time deposit and savings product sectors are declining, so that risk-averse investors in particular have few opportunities to generate return-oriented retirement provisions.This scientific article analyzes the level of a possible safe withdrawal rate for diversified pension portfolios, considering historical returns and inflation rates. Consequently, this article provides immediate practical added value for a possible retirement provision.The evaluation is based on the consideration of historical returns of the stock and bond market in Germany. To determine a safe withdrawal rate, the development of portfolios with different compositions and inflation-adjusted withdrawal rates are simulated over periods of 15 to 35 years. In this simulation, the risky part of the portfolio is represented by German equities, the low risk part by German government bonds.To sum up, the empirical results show a maximum safe withdrawal rate of 4%. The underlying portfolio is composed of 50% equities and 50% government bonds. Particularly due to the outlined demographic change in Germany as well as the ongoing low-interest phase, the empirical study can provide significant theoretical and practical insights.

Optimization of Groundwater Exploitation in an Irrigation Area in the Arid Upper Peacock River, NW China: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture and Ecology

Groundwater is the main irrigation water source in the Upper Peacock River. As fast enlargement of irrigation areas continues in recent years, the groundwater level declines continuously and has posed a threat to the sustainability of local agriculture and ecology. A numerical model was established with the code MODFLOW–2000 in order to predict the declining trend of groundwater level and formulate measures to counter the overexploitation, in which the river–aquifer interaction was elaborated and characterized by field survey. The results show that under current intensity of groundwater withdrawal, the levels of both unconfined and confined waters would decline continuously in 7 years from 2015. To stop the groundwater level from declining on the regional scale, the withdrawal rate should be compressed by 45% with respect to that in 2015. Moreover, taking consideration of the constraint of maintaining the ecological water level in the vicinity of the Euphrates Poplar forest in the study area, the withdrawal rate should be compressed 70% for seven towns around the forest.

Tapering of Biological Agents in Juvenile ERA Patients in Daily Clinical Practice

Objectives: We aim to evaluate the proportion and characteristics of enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA) patients in whom medications can be withdrawn in daily practice and to analyze the factors associated with flare-ups during medication tapering of these patients.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed records of patients under 16 years old diagnosed with ERA from April 2001 to March 2020 in one tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Patients were categorized by different medication uses: conventional disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (cDMARDs) only and cDMARDs plus biologics. Demographics, laboratory data, presence of uveitis, and medication withdrawal rate were analyzed. Subgroup analysis was performed in the patients with cDMARDs plus biologics to identify factors associated with flare-ups during medication tapering of these patients. Statistical analysis was performed using R (v3.6.0).Results: There were 75 juvenile ERA patients with a median onset age of 10.28 years old. Nineteen (25.3%) patients used cDMARDs for disease control; 56 (74.7%) patients depended on cDMARDs plus biologics. Poly-articular involvement was noted in 29 (38.7%) patients, and it occurred more frequently in the cDMARDs plus biologics subgroup (cDMARDs only, 5.3%; cDMARDs plus biologics, 53.6%; P = 0.0001). ANA positivity was observed in 18 (24.0%) patients, and it occurred more frequently in the cDMARDs plus biologics subgroup (cDMARDs, 0%; cDMARDs plus biologics, 32.1%; P = 0.0038). The overall medication withdrawal rate was 34.7%, and it occurred more frequently in patients with cDMARDs only (cDMARDs only, 84.2%; cDMARDs plus biologics, 17.9%; P < 0.001). In the subgroup analysis of patients with cDMARDs plus biologics, patients on biologics tapering with flare-up had a significantly longer time interval between disease onset and initiation of cDMARDs (biologics tapering without flare-up: 0.27 (0.11–0.73) years; biologics tapering with flare-up: 1.14 (0.39–2.02) years; ever withdrawing biologics: 0.26 (0.18–0.42) years, P = 0.0104).Conclusion: Juvenile ERA patients with polyarticular involvement had a higher risk of developing cDMARDs refractory and progressing to biologics use. Patients with a long time interval between disease onset and initiation of cDMARDs were prone to experience flare-up during tapering of biologics.

Associated Sociodemographic and Facility Patterning of Uptake, Attendance, and Session Count Within a Scottish Exercise Referral Scheme

Background: Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to tackle noncommunicable disease via increasing levels of physical activity. Health benefits are reliant on uptake and attending ERS sessions. Hence, it is important to understand which characteristics may influence these parameters to target interventions to improve uptake and attendance to those who need it most. Method: Secondary analysis of one ERS database was conducted to (1) profile participants’ nonuptake of exercise referral; (2) describe any differences between nonattenders and attenders; and (3) report session count of attenders, exploring any relationship between attender demographics and session count. Results: The study showed that (1) sociodemographic profile of nonattenders was very similar to that of those who attended; (2) there was a high, early withdrawal rate of attenders wherein 68% exited the scheme at 5 exercise sessions or less; and (3) session count did not appear to differ by demographic characteristics. Conclusions: Nonattendance and session count did not appear to differ by demographic characteristics. Attendance at ERS was low. Nonuptake and reduced attendance may limit any associated health benefits that may be achieved from ERS. Therefore, it is important to identify additional factors that may influence participants’ choice to uptake and attend ERS.

Development of Primary Sludge Control Technology Based on Solids Loading Rate in Sidestream MLE Process

Objectives:By measuring the solids loading rate for the sidestream, it was intended to achieve increased treatment capacity and improved process performance by developing control technologies for primary sludge removal, recirculation, and input.Methods:The pilot plant was manufactured by the primary clarifier+MLE process similar to the full-scale plant and was configured to control the amount of sludge withdrawal based on the inflow solids loading rate. The state point analysis was used to determine removal underflow withdrawal rate and the total underflow withdrawal rate for the primary sludge. The operation was divided into manual withdrawal, automatic withdrawal, automatic withdrawal+recirculation, and automatic withdrawal + input methods. The performance evaluation items for primary sludge control technology were primary sludge concentration and SS removal efficiency for primary and secondary clarifiers. The improvement in the performance of the bioreactor by recirculation and input was judged through the removal efficiency of ammonium nitrogen, TIN (Total Inorganic Nitrogen) and phosphate phosphorus, SNR (Specific Nitrification Rate), and SDNR (Specific Denitrification Rate). The cause of the performance improvement was analyzed by comparing the acetic acid concentration changed by recirculation and the microbial community characteristics.Results and Discussion:The average value of SS monitoring of the sidestream influent was 2.2 (0.7~6.3) g/L and the primary clarifier needed treatment in response to high concentration SS and fluctuations. It is judged that the state point analysis based on the actual settling rate can accurately suggest whether the stable operation of primary sludge removal, recirculation, and input is the possible and specific design and operation standards. The automatic withdrawal that controls the underflow withdrawal rate according to the change of the inflow solids loading rate could stably draw out the high-concentration sludge and maintain the SS removal efficiency. It is believed that stable operation is possible even in the sludge recirculation operation, and the treatment capacity of the primary clarifier can be increased more than two times in a full-scale plant. By recirculation of the primary sludge, the TIN removal efficiency in the bioreactor was improved by 24.2~52.3%, and the phosphate phosphorus removal efficiency was improved by up to 20.1%. The TIN removal efficiency in the bioreactor was improved by 32.6% by the input of primary sludge. VFAs (Volatile Fatty Acids) including acetic acid was produced and the removal efficiency was improved because it was in contact with primary sludge by recirculation and the ratio of major fermentation microorganisms was present at 2.0%. It is determined that 26.4% of the main species of microorganisms treated with nitrogen and phosphorus exist in the sidestream inflow and the removal efficiency was improved by supplying microorganisms through the input of primary sludge.Conclusions:Technology that controls primary sludge removal, recirculation, and input by measuring the solids loading rate for the sidestream is believed to increase the treatment capacity of the primary clarifier and improve the nitrogen and phosphorus removal efficiency of the bioreactor.