Potential geographic distribution and ecological niche of the insect order Megaloptera: the case of the neartic-neotropical transition zone

The Megaloptera are an interesting, but relatively poorly studied group of insects. Among the new world Megaloptera, it is not known the effect of the neartic-neotropical transition zone on their biogeographic distribution. Here we present potential geographic distributions based on ecological niche models of the species of Megaloptera from North America that occurred in the transition zone. Results suggested that the geographic range of Corydalinae (dobsonflies) in the transition zone is associated to mountainous formations and that most species favour for warm climates with higher precipitation rates. Climate types tend to be important for species that show narrow geographic ranges, but precipitation tends to be the most important variable to explain species dispersion. In addition, Chauliodinae (fishflies) and Sialidae (alderflies) may have no relation with the transition zone. Overall, our models support the dispersion of dobsonflies from the neotropics to North America and explain the two endemisms in Mexico as the result of the formation of the transition zone.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions, Using the Maximum Entropy Model

Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector, mainly from eastern North America, that bites humans. With global integration and climate change, some ticks that are currently confined to a certain place may begin to spread out; some reports have shown that they are undergoing rapid range expansion. The difference in the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum under current and future climatic conditions is dependent on environment variables such as temperature and precipitation, which can affect their survival. In this study, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum. The MaxEnt model was calibrated at the native range of A. americanum using occurrence data and the current climatic conditions. Seven WorldClim climatic variables were selected by the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The best model was chosen based on the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The resulting model was then projected onto the global scale using the current and future climate conditions modeled under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Two Economic Forest Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

The Loess Plateau is one of the most fragile ecosystems in the world. In order to increase the biodiversity in the area, develop sustainable agriculture and increase the income of the local people, we simulated the potential geographic distribution of two economic forest trees (Malus pumila Mill and Prunus armeniaca L.) in the present and future under two climate scenarios, using the maximum entropy model. In this study, the importance and contributions of environmental variables, areas of suitable habitats, changes in habitat suitability, the direction and distance of habitat range shifts, the change ratios for habitat area and land use proportions, were measured. According to our results, bioclimatic variables, topographic variables and soil variables play a significant role in defining the distribution of M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6) was the most important environmental variable for the distribution of the two economic forest trees. The second most important factors for M. pumila and P. armeniaca were, respectively, the elevation and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17). At the time of the study, the area of above moderately suitable habitats (AMSH) was 8.7967 × 104 km2 and 11.4631 × 104 km2 for M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The effect of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-85 was more dramatic than that of SSP1-26. Between now and the 2090s (SSP 5-85), the AMSH area of M. pumila is expected to decrease to 7.5957 × 104 km2, while that of P. armeniaca will increase to 34.6465 × 104 km2. The suitability of M. pumila decreased dramatically in the south and southeast regions of the Loess Plateau, increased in the middle and west and resulted in a shift in distance in the range of 78.61~190.63 km to the northwest, while P. armeniaca shifted to the northwest by 64.77~139.85 km. This study provides information for future policymaking regarding economic forest trees in the Loess Plateau.

Modelling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Two Trissolcus Species for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys

The brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to northeast Asia. It was accidentally introduced to Europe and North America, where it has become a key pest, feeding on many important crops. Previous eco-climatic niche modelling indicates that H. halys could expand its distribution vastly, and numerous border interceptions of this pest in many countries, including Australia and New Zealand, indicate that it would be prudent to prepare for its eventual arrival. Similar niche modelling was used to assess the potential distribution of Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae), the key parasitoid of H. halys in China. Trissolcus mitsukurii (Ashmead) is one of the main parasitoids of H. halys in Japan. It is known to have existed in Australia since the early 20th century and was also specifically introduced to Australia in the 1960s, and it has now also invaded Italy. We used CLIMEX to model the climatic niche of T. mitsukurii to estimate its global potential distribution. We found that T. mitsukurii should be able to significantly expand its range globally, and that there is a significant degree of overlap in the projected ranges of T. mitsukurii, T. japonicus and H. halys. From a biological control perspective, this implies that the two Trissolcus species may be able to help mitigate the potential impacts of H. halys.

Potential geographic distribution of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae) in current and future conditions for Colombia

In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work sought to estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A. albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. We found that, from their invasion of Colombia to the most recent years, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and Valle del Cauca being the departments with most of the records. Our ecological niche modelling for the currently suggests that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the Colombian continental surface up to 3000 m (p < 0.001) putting at risk at least 48 million of people that could be infected by the arboviruses that this species transmits. Additionally, by 2050 and 2070, under RCP 2.6 scenario, its distribution could cover to nearly 90% of continental extension up to 3100 m (≈55 million of people at risk), while under RCP 8.5 scenario, it could decrease below 60% of continental extension, but expand upward to 3200 m (< 38 million of people at risk). These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting.

Analysis of the Arbovirosis Potential Occurrence in Dobrogea, Romania

Climate change creates new challenges for preventing and protecting human health against different diseases that could appear and propagate. The Aedes albopictus mosquito species is an important vector for different diseases like dengue fever or zika. Although this species is not “indigenous” in Europe, its presence is noticed in many countries on the continent. The Ae. albopictus establishment is conditioned by the species’ characteristics and environmental factors. To assess the possible spread of Ae. albopictus in the Dobrogea region (situated in the Southeast of Romania), we conducted the following analysis: (1) Investigation of the current distribution and climatic factors favoring Ae. albopictus’ establishment in Europe; (2) Analysis of climate dynamics in Dobrogea in terms of the parameters identified at stage (1); (3) Testing the hypothesis that the climate from Dobrogea favors Ae. albopictus’ establishment in the region; (4) Building a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based model of the potential geographic distribution of Ae. albopictus in Dobrogea. Results show that the climate of Dobrogea favors the apparition of the investigated species and its proliferation.