Air traffic prediction with fuzzy constraints

In view of the deficiencies of poor prediction accuracy, time-consuming and low efficiency of traditional traffic prediction models, fuzzy constraints are introduced into air traffic traffic system to represent some uncertain information in the field of artificial intelligence, and construct a fuzzy constraint-based air traffic flow prediction The fuzzy constraint-based air traffic prediction model is constructed. By analyzing the decision vector, fuzzy parameter vector and fuzzy constraint set, the prediction model is proposed. The air traffic flow prediction model is built by analyzing the decision vector, fuzzy parameter vector and fuzzy constraint set that affect the fuzzy constraint, and proposing the construction process of the prediction model. The experimental results show that the air traffic flow prediction model can be used to predict the air traffic flow. The experimental results show that the improved prediction model is better than the traditional prediction model in predicting air traffic flow. The results show that the improved prediction model has better prediction results, shorter time consumption and higher accuracy than the traditional prediction model.

Efficient Access Control Permission Decision Engine Based on Machine Learning

Access control technology is critical to the safe and reliable operation of information systems. However, owing to the massive policy scale and number of access control entities in open distributed information systems, such as big data, the Internet of Things, and cloud computing, existing access control permission decision methods suffer from a performance bottleneck. Consequently, the large access control time overhead affects the normal operation of business services. To overcome the above-mentioned problem, this paper proposes an efficient permission decision engine scheme based on machine learning (EPDE-ML). The proposed scheme converts the attribute-based access control request into a permission decision vector, and the access control permission decision problem is transformed into a binary classification problem that allows or denies access. The random forest algorithm is used to construct a vector decision classifier in order to establish an efficient permission decision engine. Experimental results show that the proposed method can achieve a permission decision accuracy of around 92.6% on a test dataset, and its permission decision efficiency is significantly higher than that of the benchmark method. In addition, its performance improvement becomes more obvious as the scale of policy increases.

Global optimization based on active preference learning with radial basis functions

This paper proposes a method for solving optimization problems in which the decision-maker cannot evaluate the objective function, but rather can only express a preference such as “this is better than that” between two candidate decision vectors. The algorithm described in this paper aims at reaching the global optimizer by iteratively proposing the decision maker a new comparison to make, based on actively learning a surrogate of the latent (unknown and perhaps unquantifiable) objective function from past sampled decision vectors and pairwise preferences. A radial-basis function surrogate is fit via linear or quadratic programming, satisfying if possible the preferences expressed by the decision maker on existing samples. The surrogate is used to propose a new sample of the decision vector for comparison with the current best candidate based on two possible criteria: minimize a combination of the surrogate and an inverse weighting distance function to balance between exploitation of the surrogate and exploration of the decision space, or maximize a function related to the probability that the new candidate will be preferred. Compared to active preference learning based on Bayesian optimization, we show that our approach is competitive in that, within the same number of comparisons, it usually approaches the global optimum more closely and is computationally lighter. Applications of the proposed algorithm to solve a set of benchmark global optimization problems, for multi-objective optimization, and for optimal tuning of a cost-sensitive neural network classifier for object recognition from images are described in the paper. MATLAB and a Python implementations of the algorithms described in the paper are available at http://cse.lab.imtlucca.it/~bemporad/glis.

A combinatorial approach to determine earthquake magnitude distributions on a variable slip-rate fault

SUMMARY Combinatorial methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes on a fault whose slip rate varies along strike. Input to the problem is a finite sample of earthquake magnitudes that span 5 kyr drawn from a truncated Pareto distribution. The primary constraints to the problem are maximum and minimum values around the target slip-rate function indicating where feasible solutions can occur. Two methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquakes: integer programming and the greedy-sequential algorithm. For the integer-programming method, the binary decision vector includes all possible locations along the fault where each earthquake can occur. Once a set of solutions that satisfy the constraints is found, the cumulative slip misfit on the fault is globally minimized relative to the target slip-rate function. The greedy algorithm sequentially places earthquakes to locally optimize slip accumulation. As a case study, we calculate how earthquakes are distributed along the megathrust of the Nankai subduction zone, in which the slip rate varies significantly along strike. For both methods, the spatial distribution of magnitudes depends on slip rate, except for the largest magnitude earthquakes that span multiple sections of the fault. The greedy-sequential algorithm, previously applied to this fault (Parsons et al., 2012), tends to produce smoother spatial distributions and fewer lower magnitude earthquakes in the low slip-rate section of the fault compared to the integer-programming method. Differences in results from the two methods relate to how much emphasis is placed on minimizing the misfit to the target slip rate (integer programming) compared to finding a solution within the slip-rate constraints (greedy sequential). Specifics of the spatial distribution of magnitudes also depend on the shape of the target slip-rate function: that is, stepped at the section boundaries versus a smooth function. This study isolates the effects of slip-rate variation along a single fault in determining the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes, helping to better interpret results from more complex, interconnected fault systems.

Sequential emitter identification method based on D-S evidence theory

This paper proposes a novel sequential identification method for enhancing the anti-jamming performance and for accurate recognition rate of the emitters’ individual identification in the complicated environment. The proposed method integrates the D-S evidence theory and features extraction that can get the utmost out of features of information systems and decrease the influence of uncertain factors in the signal processing. Firstly, selected features are extracted from intercepted signals. Then, the proposed self-adaptive fusing rule based on the decision vector is utilized to fuse the evidences that are transformed by features and the previous fusing information. Finally, recognition results can be obtained by judgment rules. The simulation analysis demonstrates that self-adaptive fusing rule can achieve a great balance between computational efficiency and accurate identifying rate. While comparing with other identifying methods, the proposed sequential identifying method can provide more accurate and stable recognition results, which makes the utmost care and use of existing information.

Multiple Gravity Assist Spacecraft Trajectories Design Based on BFS and EP_DE Algorithm

The paper deals with the multiple gravity assist trajectories design. In order to improve the performance of the heuristic algorithms, such as differential evolution algorithm, in multiple gravity assist trajectories design optimization, a method combining BFS (breadth-first search) and EP_DE (differential evolution algorithm based on search space exploring and principal component analysis) is proposed. In this method, firstly find the possible multiple gravity assist planet sequences with pruning based BFS and use standard differential evolution algorithm to judge the possibility of all the possible trajectories. Then select the better ones from all the possible solutions. Finally, use EP_DE which will be introduced in this paper to find an optimal decision vector of spacecraft transfer time schedule (launch window and transfer duration) for each selected planet sequence. In this paper, several cases are presented to prove the efficiency of the method proposed.

Risky Group Decision-Making Method for Distribution Grid Planning

With rapid speed on electricity using and increasing in renewable energy, more and more research pay attention on distribution grid planning. For the drawbacks of existing research, this paper proposes a new risky group decision-making method for distribution grid planning. Firstly, a mixing index system with qualitative and quantitative indices is built. On the basis of considering the fuzziness of language evaluation, choose cloud model to realize “quantitative to qualitative” transformation and construct interval numbers decision matrices according to the “3En” principle. An m-dimensional interval numbers decision vector is regarded as super cuboids in m-dimensional attributes space, using two-level orthogonal experiment to arrange points uniformly and dispersedly. The numbers of points are assured by testing numbers of two-level orthogonal arrays and these points compose of distribution points set to stand for decision-making project. In order to eliminate the influence of correlation among indices, Mahalanobis distance is used to calculate the distance from each solutions to others which means that dynamic solutions are viewed as the reference. Secondly, due to the decision-maker’s attitude can affect the results, this paper defines the prospect value function based on SNR which is from Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and attains the comprehensive prospect value of each program as well as the order. At last, the validity and reliability of this method is illustrated by examples which prove the method is more valuable and superiority than the other.

Introduction to “Expert disagreement and medical authority”

Chapter 7 introduces the subject discussed in Chapter 8, ‘Expert disagreement and medical authority’, which addresses the ideas of consensus, dissent, division of cognitive labor, social epistemology, scientific disagreement, epistemic authority, decision vector, and agnotology.

Trust, dissent, and decision vectors

Chapter 9 is a commentary on Chapter 8, which discusses various topics around the ideas of consensus, dissent, division of cognitive labor, social epistemology, scientific disagreement, epistemic authority, decision vector, and agnotology as they relate to eExpert disagreement and medical authority.