The measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs

<p>A conspiracy theory or belief has typically been defined as an allegation of malevolent secrecy and plotting by a group of powerful actors, working in unison to fulfil sinister hidden goals at the expense of the general populace. Such beliefs tend to contradict common (and typically more benign) explanations for events and have the potential to reinforce or be used to ‘justify’ undesirable behaviours (e.g., discrimination, non-adherence to crucial healthcare practices, and environmental damage). However, the social psychological literature, specifically, concerning conspiracy beliefs is in its relative infancy. The overarching aim of this thesis is to provide greater coherency to future literature via a comprehensive examination of the measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs. A review of the existing research illustrates that, to date, the literature has tended to take a ‘fractionated’ approach to the study of conspiracy beliefs. That is, studies have tended to focus on scenario-specific conspiracies, and isolated predictors of conspiracy belief. Demonstrating that belief in real-world conspiracies and a generalised tendency to believe in conspiracies are equivalent has theoretical implications of understanding exactly what leads to these beliefs. To address this issue Study 1 examined the development, validation, and comparison of a Specific Conspiracy Belief Scale and a Generalised Conspiracy Belief Scale. A comparison of the relationships between various psychological predictor variables and both of these conspiracy belief scales was conducted in Study 2. These studies revealed that the Generalised Conspiracy Belief Scale was equivalent in performance in terms of its relationship to various predictor variables, and reliability and validity, to previously used specific conspiracy belief measures. The advantage of using the single generalised measure is its ability to be used consistently and comparatively across a range of different conspiracy scenarios. The review of the literature also revealed that although a number of predictor variables have been identified as being associated with conspiracy beliefs, studies have tended to only look at a relatively small subset of variables within a given study. Indeed, a critical analysis shows that the variables themselves may fall in to various (not necessarily independent) groupings or clusters: socio-political, personality, psychopathological, cognitive, and psychological control factors. Thus, the second goal of this thesis was to gain a better understanding of the relative contribution of the variety of variables that have been suggested as predicting conspiracy beliefs. A comprehensive analysis of the role played by a large number of potential predictor variables on their own and as part of domain groupings was performed within the context of a single population study. This issue formed a second aim of Study 2. The results showed that these variables can be reduced down to several common elements, which reveals there is no (as yet identified) single powerfully predictive psychological cause of conspiracy thinking. Rather, it is likely that psychopathological, socio-political, personality, and cognitive elements combine to explain individual differences in conspiracy belief. Finally, the validity of the Generalised Conspiracy Belief Scale and the relationships between a subset of key predictor variables (identified in Study 2) and conspiracy beliefs in the context of a wider population sample was a focus of Study 3. By using a large New Zealand-wide sample, Study 3 also broadened the scope of the thesis to examine the potential contribution of key demographic variables and psychological predictor variables in the prediction of conspiracy beliefs. Combining the demographic and psychological variables together in a hierarchical multiple regression revealed that nearly a quarter of variance in conspiracy belief was explained by these factors. However, when removing the shared variance of these predictors a number of demographic and psychological variables became non-significant or weakly predictive at best – a finding which again suggests that there are common elements that predict conspiracy belief. The remaining unique predictors of conspiracy thinking suggests that one of these common elements represent a hostile, suspicious, cynical, and threat-based worldview. Finally, although demographic variables do impact conspiracy beliefs, their unique effect is very small, and their effect works indirectly by impacting psychological predictors of conspiracy thinking. In conclusion, the current thesis has demonstrated that a single Conspiracy Belief Scale can serve as a useful and valid tool for future studies investigating conspiracy beliefs and that although individual psychological and demographic variables only weakly predict conspiracy beliefs on their own, they do cluster around potential themes which can aid in the development in a more comprehensive theoretical perspective on conspiracy.</p>

The measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs

<p>A conspiracy theory or belief has typically been defined as an allegation of malevolent secrecy and plotting by a group of powerful actors, working in unison to fulfil sinister hidden goals at the expense of the general populace. Such beliefs tend to contradict common (and typically more benign) explanations for events and have the potential to reinforce or be used to ‘justify’ undesirable behaviours (e.g., discrimination, non-adherence to crucial healthcare practices, and environmental damage). However, the social psychological literature, specifically, concerning conspiracy beliefs is in its relative infancy. The overarching aim of this thesis is to provide greater coherency to future literature via a comprehensive examination of the measurement and prediction of conspiracy beliefs. A review of the existing research illustrates that, to date, the literature has tended to take a ‘fractionated’ approach to the study of conspiracy beliefs. That is, studies have tended to focus on scenario-specific conspiracies, and isolated predictors of conspiracy belief. Demonstrating that belief in real-world conspiracies and a generalised tendency to believe in conspiracies are equivalent has theoretical implications of understanding exactly what leads to these beliefs. To address this issue Study 1 examined the development, validation, and comparison of a Specific Conspiracy Belief Scale and a Generalised Conspiracy Belief Scale. A comparison of the relationships between various psychological predictor variables and both of these conspiracy belief scales was conducted in Study 2. These studies revealed that the Generalised Conspiracy Belief Scale was equivalent in performance in terms of its relationship to various predictor variables, and reliability and validity, to previously used specific conspiracy belief measures. The advantage of using the single generalised measure is its ability to be used consistently and comparatively across a range of different conspiracy scenarios. The review of the literature also revealed that although a number of predictor variables have been identified as being associated with conspiracy beliefs, studies have tended to only look at a relatively small subset of variables within a given study. Indeed, a critical analysis shows that the variables themselves may fall in to various (not necessarily independent) groupings or clusters: socio-political, personality, psychopathological, cognitive, and psychological control factors. Thus, the second goal of this thesis was to gain a better understanding of the relative contribution of the variety of variables that have been suggested as predicting conspiracy beliefs. A comprehensive analysis of the role played by a large number of potential predictor variables on their own and as part of domain groupings was performed within the context of a single population study. This issue formed a second aim of Study 2. The results showed that these variables can be reduced down to several common elements, which reveals there is no (as yet identified) single powerfully predictive psychological cause of conspiracy thinking. Rather, it is likely that psychopathological, socio-political, personality, and cognitive elements combine to explain individual differences in conspiracy belief. Finally, the validity of the Generalised Conspiracy Belief Scale and the relationships between a subset of key predictor variables (identified in Study 2) and conspiracy beliefs in the context of a wider population sample was a focus of Study 3. By using a large New Zealand-wide sample, Study 3 also broadened the scope of the thesis to examine the potential contribution of key demographic variables and psychological predictor variables in the prediction of conspiracy beliefs. Combining the demographic and psychological variables together in a hierarchical multiple regression revealed that nearly a quarter of variance in conspiracy belief was explained by these factors. However, when removing the shared variance of these predictors a number of demographic and psychological variables became non-significant or weakly predictive at best – a finding which again suggests that there are common elements that predict conspiracy belief. The remaining unique predictors of conspiracy thinking suggests that one of these common elements represent a hostile, suspicious, cynical, and threat-based worldview. Finally, although demographic variables do impact conspiracy beliefs, their unique effect is very small, and their effect works indirectly by impacting psychological predictors of conspiracy thinking. In conclusion, the current thesis has demonstrated that a single Conspiracy Belief Scale can serve as a useful and valid tool for future studies investigating conspiracy beliefs and that although individual psychological and demographic variables only weakly predict conspiracy beliefs on their own, they do cluster around potential themes which can aid in the development in a more comprehensive theoretical perspective on conspiracy.</p>

Over-the-counter analgesics use is associated with pain and psychological distress among adolescents: a mixed effects approach in cross-sectional survey data from Norway

Background Over-the-counter analgesics (OTCA) such as Paracetamol and Ibuprofen are frequently used by adolescents, and the route of administration and access at home allows unsupervised use. Psychological distress and pain occur simultaneously and are more common among females than among males. There is a dynamic interplay between on-label pain indications and psychological distress, and frequent OTCA use or misuse can exacerbate symptoms. No studies have to date provided an overview of frequent OTCA use in a larger population-based study. The current study used survey data to explore associations between and the relative predictive value of on-label pain indication and measures of psychological distress, together with sex differences for weekly OTCA use. Methods This study included 349,528 adolescents aged 13–19. The data was collected annually between January 2014 and December 2018 as part of the Norwegian Young Data survey. Performance analysis was conducted to explore the relative roles and associations between on-label pain indication and psychological distress in weekly OTCA use. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to explore the unique contributions from four domains of on-label pain indication and psychological distress as measured by a combined measure of anxiety and depression (HSCL-10) and peer-bullying involvement as victims or bullies. Results Thirty percent of females and 13 % of males use OTCA weekly. Headache is the strongest on-label pain predictor of weekly OTCA use, followed by abdominal pain. Depression and anxiety are the strongest psychological predictor of weekly OTCA use, and higher symptom levels and being female increase the strength of this association. Anxiety and depression also predict weekly OTCA use after controlling for physiological pain. Conclusions Sex, pain and anxiety and depression are inter-correlated and strong predictors of frequent OTCA use. Frequent OTCA use in the context of psychological distress may be a form of self-medication that can exacerbate symptoms and decrease psychosocial function. Longitudinal studies that explore causal trajectories between frequent on-label OTCA use and psychological distress are required. OTCA use among adolescents, and particularly among females, with anxiety and depression should be administered with caution and closely monitored.

Factors Associated With the Intention to Begin Physical Activity Among Inactive Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Factors that affect physical activity (PA) behavior change are well established. Behavioral intention is a strong psychological predictor of behavior; however, there is less research on the factors that affect the intention to increase PA participation specifically, especially among adults in mid and later life who are inactive. Using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey, which was informed by the transtheoretical model (TTM), this study investigated the relationships between a range of demographic and biopsychosocial factors with the intention to become physically active among 1,159 inactive adults aged 40 years and older. Comparisons were made between participants reporting the intention to begin PA in the next 30 days (TTM Preparation; n = 610), 6 months (TTM Contemplation; n = 216), or not at all (TTM Precontemplation; n = 333). First, multinomial logistic regression identified age, sex, ethnicity, education, restriction of activities, self-perceived health, and community belonging as factors significantly associated with 30-day PA intention, while age and ethnicity were significantly associated with 6-month PA intention, compared with those reporting no intention. Second, binary logistic regression revealed that education was the only factor that differentially associated with intention timeframe as participants with lower levels of education were less likely to report PA intention in 30 days compared with 6 months. Findings demonstrate key demographic, biopsychosocial, and temporal factors that warrant consideration for tailored PA promotion programs that aim to effectively address the constraints and barriers that negatively influence PA intention among middle-aged and older adults.

Powerlessness corrupts? Disproportionate monitoring of low-power actors

Monitoring is a common tactic used to constrain the behavior of organizational actors. Agency theory research on monitoring focuses at the institutional level on factors such as incentives, contracts, or self-interest, largely directed at those with high power. At the same time, significant monitoring is clearly directed at low-power workers, whose performance and compliance behaviors may be rigidly controlled; arguably, the degree to which monitoring is directed at low-power more than at high-power actors is disproportionate. In this paper, we examine a psychological predictor of decisions about whom to monitor: Specifically, we contend that people’s judgments of someone’s ethicality and thereby trustworthiness are predicted by the target’s power; and these inferences on the basis of power affect decisions about whom to monitor. As a consequence, institutions may excuse powerful actors from the monitoring requirements that should constrain any ethical lapses. That is, an overly credulous view of the powerful or misdirected suspicion toward the powerless may create conditions that enable abuses by the powerful. We examine these predictions in a series of 5 studies (3 experiments and 2 field studies). Our findings challenge the notion that people subscribe to a “power corrupts” view in evaluating powerholders, and our research highlights how the very mechanism organizations put in place to constrain powerholders’ behaviors (i.e., monitoring) may, because of psychological biases in power-based inferences, be directed away from the intended targets.

Transparency Is Necessary but Not Sufficient to Reduce Skepticism About a COVID-19 Vaccine

Health authorities emphasize the importance of "radical transparency" in communicating about future COVID-19 vaccines to counter conspiracy-based skepticism. While this resonates with research that highlights uncertainty as a major psychological predictor of conspiracy-related beliefs, no systematic evidence exists regarding the effectiveness of transparency as communication strategy. This study tests the effects of transparent communication about a COVID-19 vaccine using a pre-registered experiment fielded to large, representative samples of Americans and Danes (N &gt; 6,800). The evidence confirms that positive but vague vaccine communication does not increase vaccine support but rather infuses attitudes with conspiracy-related beliefs. Against the hopes of authorities, however, there is little evidence that transparency alone can reduce vaccine skepticism, unless this transparency discloses a highly safe and effective vaccine. Additional analyses suggest that this reflects that vaccine skepticism is not grounded in psychological uncertainty but in deep distrust of authorities, which impedes the effectiveness of their communication.

Use of Over-The-Counter Analgesics for Pain and Psychological Distress Among Adolescents: A Mixed Effects Approach in Cross-Sectional Survey Data From Norway

Background: Over-the-counter analgesics (OTCA) such as Paracetamol and Ibuprofen are frequently used by adolescents, and the route of administration and access at home allows unsupervised use. Psychological distress and pain occur simultaneously and are more common among females than among males. There is a dynamic interplay between on-label pain indications and psychological distress, and frequent OTCA use or misuse can exacerbate symptoms. No studies have to date provided an overview of frequent OTCA use in a larger population-based study. The current study used survey data to explore associations between and the relative predictive value of on-label pain indication and measures of psychological distress, together with sex differences for weekly OTCA use.Methods: This study included 349,528 adolescents aged 13-19. The data was collected annually between January 2014 and December 2018 as part of the Norwegian Young Data survey. Performance analysis was conducted to explore the relative roles and associations between on-label pain indication and psychological distress in weekly OTCA use. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to explore the unique contributions from four domains of on-label pain indication and psychological distress as measured by a combined measure of anxiety and depression (HSCL-10) and peer-bullying involvement as victims or bullies.Results: Thirty percent of females and thirteen percent of males use OTCA weekly. Headache is the strongest on-label pain predictor of weekly OTCA use, followed by abdominal pain. Depression and anxiety are the strongest psychological predictor of weekly OTCA use, and higher symptom levels and being female increase the strength of this association. Anxiety and depression also predict weekly OTCA use after controlling for physiological pain.Conclusions: Sex, pain and anxiety and depression are inter-correlated and strong predictors of frequent OTCA use. Frequent OTCA use in the context of psychological distress may be a form of self-medication that can exacerbate symptoms and decrease psychosocial function. Longitudinal studies that explore causal trajectories between frequent on-label OTCA use and psychological distress are required. OTCA use among adolescents, and particularly among females, with anxiety and depression should be administered with caution and closely monitored.

Factors Impacting on Decision-Making towards Prophylactic Surgeries in BRCA Mutation Carriers and Women with Familial Predisposition

Background/Objectives: BRCA mutation carriers and women at high risk of breast/ovarian cancer are faced with the intricate question to opt for prophylactic surgeries and/or a periodic screening. The aim of this study was therefore to identify objective and emotional factors that have an impact on the decision-making process. Methods: Ninety-five women with BRCA mutations or women at increased breast/ovarian cancer lifetime risk were counseled at our outpatient department and either opted for prophylactic surgery or periodic screening. To identify the psychological factors that could have influenced the decision-making, a standardized questionnaire was applied. Additionally, clinical data were collected and were reviewed by a personal talk. Results: Seventy-one of the patients opted for an increased surveillance only, 21 for prophylactic surgeries. Positive predictors for prophylactic surgeries were sociodemographic characteristics such as parity and objective variables such as verified mutation status. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that the need for safety in health issues has been the only significant psychological predictor of surgery beyond the objective factors. Fear of surgical procedures, menopausal symptoms after surgery, loss of attractiveness, or fear of interferences with sexual life did not significantly affect decision-making. Conclusion: Decision-making towards prophylactic surgeries is influenced by objective but also emotional factors. Knowing that fear and anxiety also have an important impact on decision-making, distinct counselling about the procedures, the subsequent risk reduction as well as the psychological effects of prophylactic surgeries are essential.