Conclusion and Outlook

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Cervellati ◽  
Uwe Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Interdisciplinary Work ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Many

This concluding chapter discusses this book's origins in the argument that the demographic transition is a key turning point for long-run development, not only in terms of a change in the regime of population dynamics toward low fertility and mortality, but also in the process of long-run economic development. The observed similarities in the transition process across space and time suggest that a better understanding of the reasons for such occurrences as the delay in the development of some countries might provide insights that are relevant beyond academic interest. The chapter argues that more interdisciplinary work between economists, demographers, and historians are needed to address the many facets that are covered only in passing, or not at all.

scholarly journals Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1925) ◽  
pp. 20192468
Author(s):  
Dominik Wodarz ◽  
Shaun Stipp ◽  
David Hirshleifer ◽  
Natalia L. Komarova
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Cultural Transmission ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
Cultural Evolutionary ◽  
Fertility Traits

Human populations in many countries have undergone a phase of demographic transition, characterized by a major reduction in fertility at a time of increased resource availability. A key stylized fact is that the reduction in fertility is preceded by a reduction in mortality and a consequent increase in population density. Various theories have been proposed to account for the demographic transition process, including maladaptation, increased parental investment in fewer offspring, and cultural evolution. None of these approaches, including formal cultural evolutionary models of the demographic transitions, have addressed a possible direct causal relationship between a reduction in mortality and the subsequent decline in fertility. We provide mathematical models in which low mortality favours the cultural selection of low-fertility traits. This occurs because reduced mortality slows turnover in the model, which allows the cultural transmission advantage of low-fertility traits to outrace their reproductive disadvantage. For mortality to be a crucial determinant of outcome, a cultural transmission bias is required where slow reproducers exert higher social influence. Computer simulations of our models that allow for exogenous variation in the death rate can reproduce the central features of the demographic transition process, including substantial reductions in fertility within only one to three generations. A model assuming continuous evolution of reproduction rates through imitation errors predicts fertility to fall below replacement levels if death rates are sufficiently low. This can potentially explain the very low preferred family sizes in Western Europe.

scholarly journals Population dynamics and economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Andrea Caravaggio ◽  
Luca Gori ◽  
Mauro Sodini
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Time Optimal ◽  
Per Capita

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>This research develops a continuous-time optimal growth model that accounts for population dynamics resembling the historical pattern of the demographic transition. The Ramsey model then becomes able to generate multiple determinate or indeterminate stationary equilibria and explain the process of the transition from a state with high fertility and low income per capita to a state with low fertility and high income per capita. The article also investigates the emergence of damped or persistent cyclical dynamics.</p>

Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 580-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo R Soares
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Critical Level ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Fertility Choice ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Long Run

This paper develops a model where reductions in mortality are the main force behind economic development. The model generates a pattern of changes similar to the demographic transition, where gains in life expectancy at birth are followed by reductions in fertility and increases in the rate of human capital accumulation. The onset of the transition is characterized by a critical level of life expectancy at birth, which marks the movement of the economy from a Malthusian equilibrium to an equilibrium with investments in human capital and the possibility of long-run growth.

scholarly journals Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Wodarz ◽  
Shaun Stipp ◽  
David Hirshleifer ◽  
Natalia L. Komarova
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Cultural Transmission ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
Cultural Evolutionary ◽  
Fertility Traits

AbstractHuman populations in many countries have undergone a phase of demographic transition, characterized by a major reduction in fertility at a time of increased resource availability. A key stylized fact is that the reduction in fertility is preceded by a reduction in mortality and a consequent increase in population density. Various theories have been proposed to account for the demographic transition process, including maladaptation, increased parental investment in fewer offspring, and cultural evolution. None of these approaches, including formal cultural evolutionary models of the demographic transitions, have addressed a possible direct causal relationship between a reduction in mortality and the subsequent decline in fertility. We provide mathematical models in whichlow mortalityfavors the cultural selection of low fertility traits. This occurs because reduced mortality slows turnover in the model, which allows the cultural transmission advantage of low fertility traits to out-race their reproductive disadvantage. For mortality to be a crucial determinant of outcome, a cultural transmission bias is required where slow reproducers exert higher social influence. Computer simulations of our models that allow for exogenous variation in the death rate can reproduce the central features of the demographic transition process, including substantial reductions in fertility within only 1-3 generations. A model assuming continuous evolution of reproduction rates through imitation errors predicts fertility to fall below replacement levels, if death rates are sufficiently low. This can potentially explain the very low preferred family sizes in Western Europe.

Ethiopia’s Changing Demography

2019 ◽  
pp. 365-382
Author(s):  
Assefa Hailemariam
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Populous Country

Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa. Although it is the fastest-growing economy in Africa, it is also one of the poorest and least urbanized. Recently, the country has been undergoing demographic changes of historic proportions. It has been experiencing rapid declines in fertility, in infant, child, and maternal mortality, and an increase in life expectancy. Currently, the country is going through a demographic transition process. Both the size and the age structure of the population are changing. Understanding these changes is vital as the country plans the pathway for its future development. This contribution uses rigorously generated evidence of Ethiopia’s demographic transition to highlight the changes in population dynamics that have occurred in the country in the last sixty years and to examine the main drivers of these changes and their implications for the country’s future.

Biotics: Competition, Herbivory, Predation, Parasitism and Symbiosis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christer Brönmark ◽  
Lars-Anders Hansson
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Ecosystem Function ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Biological Interactions ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
The Many

If biological interactions, such as competition and predation, have any effect on population dynamics, or if abiotic factors alone determine which organisms, how many of them do we see in a specific ecosystem, was for long a controversial question. This chapter aims at providing the basis for the understanding of biological interactions, as well as showing ample examples of how important those interactions are in shaping both population dynamics and ecosystem function of natural systems. In addition to the many examples, the reader is introduced to the history and the theoretical basis for biological interactions.

scholarly journals Implications of Governance, Natural Resources, and Security Threats on Economic Development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6236
Author(s):  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Chuka Uzoma Ifediora ◽  
Jamiu Adetola Odugbesan ◽  
Benneth Chiemelie Iloka ◽  
João Xavier Rita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sub Saharan

Sub-Saharan African countries are known to be bedeviled with some challenges hindering the economic development. Meanwhile, some of these issues have not been exhaustively investigated in the context of the region. Thus, this study aimed at investigating the implications of government effectiveness, availability of natural resources, and security threats on the regions’ economic development. Yearly data, spanning from 2007 to 2020, was converted from low frequency (yearly) to high frequency (quarterly) and utilized. Data analysis was conducted using Dynamic heterogeneous panel level estimators (PMG and CS-ARDL). Findings show that while PMG estimator confirms a long-run causal effect of governance, natural resources, and security threats on economic development, only natural resources show a short-run causal effect with economic development, while the CS-ARDL (model 2) confirms the significance of all the variables both in the long and short-run. Moreover, the ECT coefficients for both models were found to be statistically significant at less than 1% significance level, which indicates that the systems return back to equilibrium in case of a shock that causes disequilibrium, and in addition, reveals a stable long-run cointegration among the variables in the model. Finally, this study suggests that the policy makers in SSA countries should place more emphasis on improving governance, managing security challenges, and effectively utilizing rents from the natural resources, as all these have severe implications for the economic development of the region if not addressed.

scholarly journals The role of diversity and tolerance in economic development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Witold Kwasnicki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Industry Development ◽  
Radical Innovations ◽  
Long Run

AbstractThis paper presents an evolutionary model of industry development, and uses simulations to investigation the role of diversity and heterogeneity in firms’ behaviour, and hence industrial development. The simulations suggest that economic growth is increased with greater variety, in the sense of the evolutionary process approaching the equilibrium faster and also, in the long run, moving faster from one equilibrium to a new, more advanced, equilibrium. This occurs due to higher variety caused by a more tolerant environment, and due to the higher probability of emergence of radical innovations.

scholarly journals Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Songling ◽  
Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽  
Bui Thi Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Beijing China

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality to check the relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth based on the data of the Beijing municipal bureau of statistics from 1994 to 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a replacement variable for the economic growth index, while internal tourism revenue is used as a tourism industry indicator. The study supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis proposed in the existing literature in a different survey of tourism and economic development. The results show that there is a strong relationship in the tourism industry and economic growth in the context of Beijing, and at the same time, tourism creates a more significant increase in long run local real economic accomplishments. The results of the VAR model confirm that in the long run, Beijing’s economic growth is affected by domestic tourism, while the ECM model shows unidirectional results in the short term. Similarly, there is a one-way causal relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth in Beijing, China. The empirical results are in strong support of the concept that tourism causes growth.

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